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Final Collapse Is Inexorable

Business

This week central planners pursued their primary mission with steadfast conviction.  They planned.  They prodded.  They prearranged tomorrow to save us from ourselves.  Some also grubbed a little graft for their trouble.

Other central planners took to debasing the dollar to price fix the federal funds rate within a narrow band of tolerance.  What in the world do they think they’re doing?

We know from our own everyday experience that people make choices.  What’s more, these choices do not occur in isolation.  There are a myriad of influences and constraints factoring into the countless choices people make as they go about their day.

One person drives their car to work.  Another takes the train.  While a third walks.  These choices may be individual preferences.  But they’re also subject to other factors – like proximity to work or the train station, the price of gas, the cost of parking, and much, much more.

Perhaps central planners can account for some of these influences and constraints.  But not all of them.  Not even half of them.

People also behave in seemingly unexpected and erratic ways.  They make irrational decisions.  They run on emotion and ego over logic and sound judgement.  Some choose vanity over humility.  Others will cut off the nose to spite the face.

How’s a bureaucrat in Washington or Sacramento supposed to account for all of these unknown and illogical contingencies?

When it comes to credit markets, the planners are especially effective at making an awful mess.  Namely, when they stretch out the currency, and supply the big banks with cheap and plentiful credit, they reward undue risk.  They paper over mistakes.  They also compel financial markets and the overall economy to an ever more perilous state.

Hence, when the credit market breaks, and the planners’ plans don’t compute, collapse and destruction are the consequences.  We’ll have more on this in just a moment – including an update on the latest Fed fabrication.  But first, for purposes of improvement and edification, we offer the following cautionary tale of collapse and destruction…

Death of Tubby

The Tacoma Narrows Bridge was a suspension bridge that connected Tacoma and the Kitsap Peninsula, spanning the Tacoma Narrows strait of Washington’s Puget Sound.  When it opened to traffic on July 1, 1940, the bridge included the third longest suspension span in the world.  Regrettably, the bridge was doomed long before the first vehicle ever traversed across it.

The original bridge design – a conventional proposal – was scrapped in favor of something cheaper and innovative.  Several years earlier two hotshot engineers, Leon Moisseiff and Frederick Lienhard, published what was thought to be the most important theoretical advancement in bridge engineering for at least a decade.

According to their novel theory of elastic distribution, the stiffness of the main cables would absorb up to one-half of the static wind pressure pushing a suspended structure laterally.  Thus, the energy would then be transmitted to the anchorages and towers.

Using this theory, a set of eight-foot-deep plate girders was selected over the 25-foot-deep trusses initially proposed.  These reduced girders formed a bridge deck that was flimsy and extremely wind sensitive.  Moisseiff and Lienhard had underappreciated horizontal bending under static wind load.

As a result, the bridge’s center span would rise and fall several feet over short intervals under moderate wind conditions.  Construction workers took to calling the bridge “Galloping Gertie.”  Unfortunately, Gertie didn’t gallop for long.

On November 7, 1940, roughly four months after opening, wind induced aeroelastic flutter twisted and collapsed the Tacoma Narrows Bridge into the Puget Sound.

Leonard Coatsworth, a Tacoma News Tribune editor, was the last person to drive on the bridge:

Around me I could hear concrete cracking.  I started back to the car to get the dog, but was thrown before I could reach it.  The car itself began to slide from side to side on the roadway. I decided the bridge was breaking up and my only hope was to get back to shore.

“On hands and knees most of the time, I crawled 500 yards or more to the towers… My breath was coming in gasps; my knees were raw and bleeding, my hands bruised and swollen from gripping the concrete curb… Towards the last, I risked rising to my feet and running a few yards at a time… Safely back at the toll plaza, I saw the bridge in its final collapse and saw my car plunge into the Narrows.”

Alas, Coatsworth’s cocker spaniel – Tubby – perished when Coatsworth’s car plunged into the Puget Sound.  As an aside, the same stormy winds that collapsed Galloping Gertie went on to cause the Armistice Day Blizzard, four days later, that killed 145 people in the Midwest.

Only in the wake of great folly are officials willing to speak with real candor.  Othmar Ammann, a leading bridge designer and member of the Federal Works Agency Commission that investigated the Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapse, wrote:

“The Tacoma Narrows bridge failure has given us invaluable information… It has shown [that] every new structure [that] projects into new fields of magnitude involves new problems for the solution of which neither theory nor practical experience furnish an adequate guide.  It is then that we must rely largely on judgment and if, as a result, errors, or failures occur, we must accept them as a price for human progress.”

Indeed, the epic collapse and destruction of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge provided invaluable information.  Civil and structural engineering students now learn to incorporate aerodynamics into their designs.  In addition, wind-tunnel testing of designs is now mandatory.

No doubt, the design and construction of a suspension bridge is a complex engineering feat.  Without the accumulated knowledge of successful and failed bridge designs, engineers would continue to rely largely on judgement.  The commissioning of each new bridge would be highly suspect.  Fortunately, past mistakes can be understood and mostly avoided going forward.

Final Collapse is Inexorable

Central bankers like to flatter their profession.  They fancy themselves scientists and engineers.  They aggregate data and display it on colorful charts and graphs.  They devise theories as to how to make the graphs adjust in ways considered favorable.  They overlay arrows on their charts.  And sometimes, to add real scientific credibility, they even use footnotes.

The whole endeavor is absurd.  The economy, remember, is a social system, not a physical system.  What works well at one time may fail at another.  And what fails at one time may succeed at another.  What’s thought to be accumulated knowledge becomes, in effect, a liability.

When Alan Greenspan first executed the “Greenspan put” following the 1987 Black Monday crash, financial markets were well positioned for this centrally coordinated intervention.  Interest rates, after peaking out in 1981, were still high.  The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note was about 9 percent.  There was plenty of room for borrowing costs to fall.

Yet, now, in a world with $17 trillion in negative yielding debt and asset prices – including U.S. Treasuries – bubbled up beyond comprehension, the Fed has fabricated a financial system that’s reliant on extreme central bank intervention to remain solvent.

Over the last two weeks the Fed has pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system through the overnight repo market.  These repo operations are scheduled to continue every business day until October 10, with the option for them to continue longer.  Our guess is that the Fed will continue until something cracks, which may be much sooner than expected…

Stormy winds are blowing across credit markets, twisting and bending them like the Tacoma Narrows Bridge.  The Fed, despite its scientific fascia, is relying on judgement.  Guided by gut, it’s doing all it knows how to do; create credit and inject it into financial system.

Greenspan got us into this mess…and there’s no dampening it.  Final collapse is inexorable.

EconomicPrism.com



31 Comments on "Final Collapse Is Inexorable"

  1. makati1 on Sat, 28th Sep 2019 8:07 pm 

    “Final collapse is inexorable.”

    As I watch the show from ~10,000 miles away, it is obvious that they cannot pull too many more ‘magic’ rabbits out of the financial hat. With interest going negative soon, the inevitable stock market casino crash and debt drowning the 99%, the fall will be horrendous. Gone will be those struggling retirement thingies like 401ks, IRAs, company pensions, government pensions, etc. Even Social Security may evaporate this time and not reset to previous levels if at all.

    A 3rd world US, or worse. How can it be worse? Easy! The US doesn’t produce anything that the 99% need besides toilet paper they call money. What happens when the JIT system goes down, permanently? Empty store shelves in a day? Two? Never to be restocked. Electric fails, forever. No gas for the SUV in the driveway. On and on…

    Are you prepared or even trying to be?

  2. JuanP on Sat, 28th Sep 2019 8:33 pm 

    Oops mak that is a zero IQ article

  3. makati1 on Sat, 28th Sep 2019 8:51 pm 

    The only zero I.Q.s are in Missouri. I read opinions from all kinds of sites and sources. I just found a new one…

    https://russia-insider.com/en

    How can you see the real world from one viewpoint?

  4. Davy on Sat, 28th Sep 2019 9:20 pm 

    For anyone that cares. The board nuderator in cheif,(me) is tucking his widdle self into beddy byes now. I’ll be back in the morning to flood the board with my usual cherry picked off topic zero-iq copy and paste spam. Cuz that’s what dumbasses like me do best.

  5. Davy on Sat, 28th Sep 2019 9:21 pm 

    Oops,sorry I forgot.

    dumbasses

  6. supremacist muzzies jerk on Sat, 28th Sep 2019 11:19 pm 

    hey uneducated makako (UM) swt SAWS pbuh
    welcome back, 3rd world.

    i hardly spend a pico second on this forum.
    i take care of my goats.

  7. DerHundistLos on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 1:50 am 

    CORRECTION:

    The dog was NOT killed in the bridge collapse thanks to the heroic efforts of a professor. The dog’s “guardian” was too busy thinking about himself when he exited the car for safety. I hope the dog’s true guardian, the professor, kept the doggie.

  8. Theedrich on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 2:41 am 

    Both parties, but especially Dems, are parasites.  Every single State and city run by “progressive” Democrats has turned into a hellhole:  L.A., San Francisco, Portland, Seattle, Chicago, Baltimore and, increasingly, even massive New York.  The national debt incurred (now reaching $23 trillion) with no pretense of ever repaying it, assures national bankruptcy.  The surrender to corrupt billionaires (starting with civilization-wrecker Sörös) is now too far advanced to stop.  The war on normal Whites, on police, on national-border protection, and on behalf of lower humanoids and their criminality, is now too entrenched.  The musclebound Imperial military cannot even keep track of the money poured into it, and the new weapons it is squandering its lucre on are little more than show pieces meant to delude the multitudes.

    Meanwhile the Democrats are psychotically obsessed with the fantasy of dislodging the current president, and could not care less about the impending collapse of the country;  in fact, they are hoping for it as a way to get themselves voted into power.

    Having once seized power, they will probably start a major war with Russia and China to show just how glorious their failing regime is.

    And that will be the end of the land of the freebie and the home of the knave.

  9. Davy on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 6:05 am 

    “On The Motives Behind Whistleblower-gate”
    https://tinyurl.com/y3drxgn7 moon of alabama

    “The CIA created an artificial issue that the Democrats used to justify the launch of an impeachment process against Trump. The impeachment attempt has little chance to dethrone Trump. But the affair will again hamstring any attempts for better relations with Russia. The operation is also designed to further prevent Trump digging into the background of Russiagate and the people behind it. The second attempt is a simpler construct than Russiagate. A CIA operative who was temporarily delegated to the White House constructed a ‘whistleblower complaint’ that is completely based on hearsay and public sources. It is also about issues that are outside of the CIA’s immediate business. Until very recently the intelligence community complaint form required that any claimant had first hand knowledge of the complaint issue. The form was changed in August (more here) but uploaded only on September 24 to also allow for hearsay to be the basis of a complaint. This reinforces the impression that the complaint is part of a larger intelligence operations. Who initiated the change?”

    “The U.S.and the Ukraine have a treaty that requires them to cooperate on law enforcement matters. That Trump wanted the Ukrainian authorities to investigated these issues was well known. His personal lawyer Rudi Giuliani had said for several months that he was looking into these questions. The issues pointed out in the complaint are clearly beyond the scope of the whistleblower statute. Trump’s actions with regard to the Ukraine, especially the phone call, were neither outside of any law nor do they involve any intelligence activity. What Trump did during the call was not nefarious. The issue is clearly a question of “differences in opinion concerning public policy matters”.

  10. Cloggie on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 6:20 am 

    “Greenspan got us into this mess…and there’s no dampening it. Final collapse is inexorable.”

    The author from EconomicPrism.com is looking exclusively through an economic prism. He can’t imagine that collapse could come from another angle than economy first. Namely from social disturbances, resulting from insane immigration policies exercised since 1965. Currently there is a cold civil war raging in Washington. The American Mussolini has thoroughly recreated the Republican party in his image and some media like Fox are no longer globalist. Expect the system to explode after he retreats, somewhere between 2020-2024, when the cold civil war in Washington could spill over to the streets of America between patriots and antifascists:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-xTzd23h2Q

    If DJT manages to get reelected, expect the Dems to go full blast to make governing impossible.

  11. Cloggie on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 6:41 am 

    US and UK competing for being the first western country to somehow collapse. The US over race, the UK over membership of which club: Europe or Anglosphere.

    Britain could live with being a member of the European club as long as the US was an overarching patron of the lot. But that is no longer the case. The EU is preparing to step out of the shadow of the retreating US and the UK wants to retreat with the US.

    https://www.rt.com/news/387313-us-losing-leadership-eu-mogherini/

    “‘US losing world leadership, Europe can replace it’ – EU top diplomat Mogherini”

    The UK is bitterly divided 50-50 about the question and for the first time there are prominent voices warning that things could get violent. All means are used in the battle:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7516083/No-10-probes-MPs-foreign-collusion-amid-plot-John-Bercow-send-surrender-letter-Brussels.html

    “No 10 probes Remain MPs’ ‘foreign collusion’ amid plot to allow John Bercow to send ‘surrender letter’ to Brussels asking for a delay to Brexit”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7517205/Boris-Johnson-says-acted-propriety-grilled-Jennifer-Arcuri-row.html

    “Boris Johnson claims he acted with ‘full propriety’ as he is grilled about his relationship with American model Jennifer Arcuri who ‘told friends she was having a sexual affair’ with the then London mayor amid police investigation into his conduct”

    Accusation: BoJo paying a gold digger with public funds for her horizontal services.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7516601/Journalist-accuses-PM-squeezing-inner-thigh-private-lunch-1999.html

    “‘I felt Boris Johnson’s wandering hands’: Journalist accuses PM of squeezing her inner thigh ‘so high up’ that she flinched at private lunch in 1999”

  12. Cloggie on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 6:57 am 

    EU and US Mars probes will be launched in March 2020 AND LIKELY TO FIND LIFE:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7517149/Nasas-chief-scientist-Jim-Green-predicts-Mars-rovers-launching-summer-life.html

    “Mars rovers being launched next summer WILL find life on the red planet, Nasa’s chief scientist predicts – but he warns Earth is not prepared for the ‘revolutionary’ discovery”

  13. Cloggie on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 7:01 am 

    This is a truly remarkable development in the post-1945 western world:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7517101/Fury-Corbynistas-OUST-veteran-Jewish-Labour-MP-Corbyn-critic-Dame-Margaret-Hodge.html

    “Fury as Corbynistas move to OUST veteran Jewish Labour MP Dame Margaret Hodge and replace her with a loyalist after she condemned leader Jeremy Corbyn over anti-Semitism”

    The Labour leadership consistently tries to get rid of oligarch influence.

  14. Cloggie on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 7:05 am 

    White women are the worst leftists latest:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7516145/Newsnight-presenter-Emily-Maitlis-wades-BBC-race-row.html

    “Newsnight presenter Emily Maitlis wades into BBC row over Naga Munchetty’s racism comments as she warns (very white) bosses that they are ‘massively out of touch'”

    Some BBC presenter of color called DJT a “racist” and got reprimanded over it by the BBC top brass.

  15. Cloggie on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 7:26 am 

    Canadian founding member of Greenpeace Patrick Moore is spilling the beans over the organisation: the club has become a Marxist mafia.

    http://www.pi-news.net/2019/09/ex-greenpeace-chef-packt-aus/

  16. Davy on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 7:55 am 

    This describes me in a nutshell:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrWGbsEMr5I

  17. Open Mouth, Insert Foot on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 8:03 am 

    Theedrich

    ” Every single State and city run by “progressive” Democrats has turned into a hellhole.”

    Maybe you can enlighten us why the ten most federally dependent states for welfare, food stamps, housing, health care are Ruby Red Republicon (9 out of Top 10) while, conversely, the least dependent states on federal government handouts are Blue Democratic states.

    https://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-least-dependent-on-the-federal-government/2700/

  18. Davy on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 8:09 am 

    Y’all know my source for this journalistic masterpiece
    “On The Motives Behind Whistleblower-gate”?

    None other than “Moon of Alabama”

    Cause Im really smart and have all the answers.

    I know, I know, I’m a dumbass.

  19. ID theft on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 8:30 am 

    Davy said Y’all know my source for this journalistic m…

    Davy said This describes me in a nutshell: https://www.youtu

  20. JuanP garbage on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 8:36 am 

    Open Mouth, Insert Foot said Theedrich ” Every single State and city run…

    ANAL REAPER said It’s the niggers and japs fault. Death to mi…

  21. Sissyfuss on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 9:16 am 

    If the quality of comments on this site are any indication, then yes,collapse is inexorable, inescapable, inevitable, and ineluctable.

  22. Davy on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 10:16 am 

    If the quality of comments on this site are any indication:

    Eliminate JuanP & anonymouse would be a start. Stalking, ID theft, and stupid socks has diminished quality the most.

  23. Davy on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 10:52 am 

    I’m telling my mommy on you JuanP aultard and annoymouse!

  24. JuanP garbage on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 10:56 am 

    ID theft and socks fromm the lunatic JuanP

    Davy said I’m telling my mommy on you JuanP aultard and anno…

    supremacist muzzies jerk said dear supertard pbuh SAWS swt please neuter

    Wheeee said I rode my bipedal yesterday; it was fun!

    Kuntski said The Kunt follows the $$$$$$$.

  25. Insane Davy Sock Puppet on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 12:51 pm 

    JuanP

  26. supremacist muzzie jerk on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 1:02 pm 

    dear uneducated makako (UM). say this shahada

    “I (UM) don’t believe there’s allah SWT SAW SAWS pbuh and muhammad SWT SAW SAWS pbuh the pedifile who boined aisha SWT SAW SAWS pbuH when she was 6 y/o made it all up”

    if you don’t say it you’re just a muzzie taquia artist. your thoughts and facts are suspect.

  27. Dredd on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 1:03 pm 

    Economic Prison be here (A History of Oil Addiction).

  28. supremacist muzzie jerk on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 7:08 pm 

    again, if uneducated makako (UM) won’t sign this, his writings are suspect.

    “I (UM) don’t believe there’s allah SWT SAW SAWS pbuh and muhammad SWT SAW SAWS pbuh the pedifile who boinked aisha SWT SAW SAWS pbuH when she was 6 y/o made it all up”

    if you don’t say it you’re just a muzzie taquia artist. your thoughts and facts are suspect. you’re no more than abdullah – arabic for slave of allah, which is really salve of muhadmad

  29. PBUh saws on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 7:17 pm 

    JuanPaultard sucks as a writer

  30. Davy Retarded Sock Puppet on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 8:53 pm 

    Nice to see DavyTurd is deploying his retarded sock puppet for moral support.

    Pathetic.

    PBUh saws on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 7:17 pm

    JuanPaultard sucks as a writer

  31. supreamacist muzzies jerk on Sun, 29th Sep 2019 10:12 pm 

    the big event that supertard big muzzie beard SAW SAWS pbuh swt was going to shave it all has been cancelled.
    it was for raising money for jihadwatch and kids with cancer.
    all your money will be refunded. we apologize for the inconvenience.

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