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Page added on August 9, 2018

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At Iran’s Risk, Trump Is Winning Over Fastest Growing Oil Market

Business

One of Iran’s biggest oil customers is buying more U.S. crude as President Donald Trump sticks to his pledge to squeeze the Persian Gulf nation’s energy trade.

State-run refiner Indian Oil Corp., which had been buying U.S. crude in the spot market, signed a term tender to purchase American oil for delivery every month between November and January, according to Finance Director Arun Kumar Sharma. That will help more than double the company’s shipments from the U.S. so far this year compared to last fiscal year.

“This tender is the first step toward future imports of U.S. crude oil through term contracts,” Sharma said in a phone interview on August 8.

A greater commitment to U.S. crude may help shield India from supply disruptions when sanctions on oil aimed at curbing the Islamic republic’s nuclear program begin in early November. It also gives American producers greater inroads to the fastest-growing oil consumer, a market that’s currently dominated by Middle-Eastern suppliers.

American oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp. is said to be courting Asian refiners with rare long-term U.S. crude export deals in a bid to expand its trading scope. Long-term contracts — which involve the sale of cargoes of a certain quality, volume and price over a set period from as little as 6 months to multiple years — for American oil are uncommon and most deals are done on a spot basis after a decades-long export ban was lifted in late 2015.

Crucial Strategy

“Long-term contracts will be central to the U.S. strategy,” said Abhishek Kumar, a senior energy analyst at Interfax Energy in London. “That ensures the U.S. will have customers for its hydrocarbons in the medium-to-long term.”

Indian Oil agreed to buy 6 million barrels of U.S. crude through the term-tender, taking its American crude purchases to 16 million barrels in total since April. That compares to its previous year’s spot purchases of 6.6 million barrels from the shale producer.

The nation’s biggest refiner said in May that it plans to nearly double its oil imports from Iran to 7 million tons during the financial year that began in April. But Trump’s push to isolate the Islamic Republic is forcing it to prepare alternative plans. Indian Oil is still awaiting direction from its government on Iranian crude imports, Sharma said.

The ratcheting up of trade tensions between the U.S. and China could also help oil buyers in India, the world’s third-biggest crude consumer, according to Interfax’s Kumar. China’s largest refiner, Sinopec, will delay making purchases from America, while Beijing has rejected Trump’s call for its allies to cut to zero purchases from Iran.

“This presents India with an opportunity to negotiate hard, given the country’s energy needs are rising and the U.S. is a more-than-willing supplier in present circumstances,” he said.

RIGZONE



66 Comments on "At Iran’s Risk, Trump Is Winning Over Fastest Growing Oil Market"

  1. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 11:18 am 

    We shall see—-
    This guy has been bankrupt 4 times——-
    (after daddy gave him 100 million).

  2. George Straight on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 1:11 pm 

    Right on Duncan, rinse and repeat…
    Actually, the right man for the job…
    America is bankrupt, he indicated that and has enough experience to get richer from that fact!

  3. Twocats on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 1:32 pm 

    Mafia move – whack the competition and then go sell to their customers

  4. JuanP on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 3:26 pm 

    Is the USA isolating Iran or isolating itself?
    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/08/08/trump-talk-isolating-iran-speaks-more-us-global-isolation.html

  5. makati1 on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 6:13 pm 

    JuanP, the Us is isolating itself. At the rate Trumpet is breaking things, there will be no “allies” left. They will have all moved East.

    The Neocons need a huge war and seem to be denying that it will end bad for everyone. Such greed, arrogance and stupidity is only possible in America.

  6. makati1 on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 6:40 pm 

    RIGPORN: More American/Imperial bullshit.

  7. Davy on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 7:22 pm 

    “JuanP, the Us is isolating itself. At the rate Trumpet is breaking things, there will be no “allies” left. They will have all moved East.”

    There is not much isolating going on just hardening of positions. It is not like Asia has much to offer. Allies are in it for self-interest. Many of the US allies have interests that are satisfied by the business and trade with the US. Anti-Americans want to believe things are falling apart but they are not.

  8. MASTERMIND on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 7:25 pm 

    Mak

    China has a bigger problem than the trade war — a ‘mountain of debt’

    China is also dealing with a “mountain of debt” racked up at a massive pace over the past decade, as it raced to catch up with the “rich world”.

    “Since 2008 China has been on this massive debt-fuelled binge,” McMahon says.

    “It has been fuelled by debt at every step of the way, to a point where now Chinese debt levels are in excess of those in the United States.”

    The biggest problem isn’t the overall levels of debt, McMahon says, but the pace at which it’s been accumulated.

    He says that around a decade ago, China’s debt levels were about 160 per cent of the size of its GDP.

    “Now it’s somewhere between 280 and 300 per cent,” he says.

    When other countries have accumulated debt that quickly, they have “almost invariably experienced a financial crisis”, McMahon says.

    “That’s like the United States before the sub-prime crisis, or Thailand before the Asian financial crisis,” he says.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-08/chinas-view-of-trumps-trade-war-is-massive-debt-a-bigger-problem/10055192

  9. makati1 on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 7:25 pm 

    Moving East: “Imran Khan and the Silk Road”

    https://journal-neo.org/2018/08/09/imran-khan-and-the-silk-road/

    “Toward this end, the election despite American and Israeli attempts to smear Imran Khan, of a Pakistani leader finally willing to cut ties with Wall Street and Tel Aviv, will signal a new age. This is particularly important in that Pakistan is the world’s only Islamic nuclear power as well….

    As Turkey becomes increasingly distant from an American controlled NATO, particularly with Erdogan deeply concerned with America’s love affair with radical Gulanites he believes responsible for what he also considers a CIA backed coup against him in 2016, a durable economic and mutual security agreement between Turkey and Iran are likely to follow….

    With Turkey, Canada and Germany increasingly skeptical of the benefits of NATO membership and Britain in political free fall resulting from both Brexit and the machinations of Boris Johnson and his Deep State handlers, America’s role as global policeman will become increasingly untenable.”

    Slip slidin’…

  10. MASTERMIND on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 7:28 pm 

    Mak

    The silk road is never going to happen..80 percent of the countries are rated junk status..Even India didn’t want to join..They knew china is headed for bankruptcy soon..

  11. makati1 on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 7:37 pm 

    “The Iranians do however, have a large arsenal of missiles ranging from the Safir missile with a range of 350km to the Soumar cruise missile with a range of up to 3000 km. That means that there is no country within the Middle East, with their American bases, that are not within range. According to a fact sheet produced by the American Security Project (US Military Bases and Facilities in the Middle East, June 2018) there are literally dozens of US military facilities and thousands of military personnel that would be vulnerable. These include the US naval forces central command headquarters in Bahrain, base to the US 5th fleet, and the biggest US base in the Middle East at Al Udeid in Qatar….

    The Israeli nuclear weapons facility at Dimona, a strike against that could have potentially devastating environmental consequences, is also within range. It is always interesting to contrast the coverage in the western media of Iran’s non-existent nuclear weapons program (almost always presented as an existential threat) and the way that same media tip toes around Israel’s actual stockpile of nuclear weapons;…

    Even the potential that the Iranians have to block the Straits of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which more than 18 million barrels of oil pass each day, would have profound consequences. In the event of an actual outbreak of hostilities, no insurance company in the world would provide cover for any tankers traversing those waters. Some analysts have predicted oil going to US$200 a barrel, a boon to oil producing countries such as Russia and Venezuela not reliant upon the Straits of Hormuz, but disastrous for nearly everyone else.”

    https://journal-neo.org/2018/08/09/the-latest-us-sanctions-point-to-a-declining-world-superpower/

    Then there are Iran’s friends: Russia, China, Turkey, Iraq, Qatar
    and Syria.

    “The US has been further exposed yet again as not only “not agreement capable”, but a nation prepared to sacrifice friend and foe alike in a vain attempt to stem the inexorable transfer of geopolitical power east to Eurasia, with China, Iran and Russia as three of its counterpoints in a new world multi-polarity.”

  12. makati1 on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 7:38 pm 

    MM, I no longer debate with idiots, delusionists, or brainwashed Americans. It is a waste of my time.

  13. Davy on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 7:40 pm 

    billy, Iran is a sinking ship. You look stupid pumping them up.

  14. Davy on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 7:41 pm 

    “MM, I no longer debate with idiots, delusionists, or brainwashed Americans. It is a waste of my time.”

    That’s fine billy, but expect to be moderated and your extremism neutered.

  15. MASTERMIND on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 8:07 pm 

    Davy

    Mak knows he can’t win a debate against someone who is educated..He has to try to slander me because he cant win the debate with facts or logic..

  16. makati1 on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 8:29 pm 

    I no longer debate with idiots, delusionists, or brainwashed Americans. (Davy, Boat, MM and a few others here.)n

    It is a waste of my time They deserve what is coming…and soon…and hard. Blow-back is a bitch. So be it!

  17. MASTERMIND on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 8:33 pm 

    Mak

    You deserve to be all alone..You are a mean and nasty person..That is why your wife left you and your family doesn’t want to have anything to do with you..I can’t blame them..I am sure everyone is pretty fed up with your lies and emotional fantasy about the US collapsing..

  18. MASTERMIND on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 9:46 pm 

    I think Shale might have peaked..Look at this..

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK_MBBL&f=W

  19. Antius on Thu, 9th Aug 2018 11:51 pm 

    “I think Shale might have peaked..Look at this..”

    Stored liquid stocks; not production. It suggests that demand has exceeded production this past year.

  20. Cloggie on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 12:07 am 

    I think Shale might have peaked..Look at this..

    Nobody gives a damn what mouth-breathers like you “think”, millimind.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Exxons-Shocking-Supply-And-Demand-Predictions.html

    4.5 trillion recoverable barrel left.

    Until 2006 1 trillion barrel consumed cumulatively throughout history:

    https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-e97495afcf11bfd992359d3e712b8437-c

    Keep on muddying the waters with your peak oil baloney, which you need for your neo-bolshevik revolution against white people.

    Not going to happen, not because of “peak oil”.

    But if you insist, you can have your ass kicked regardless.

  21. Cloggie on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 1:30 am 

    “billy, Iran is a sinking ship. You look stupid pumping them up.”

    If that is the case it is because of sadists like you, who can’t accept that Iran is no longer a US colony, Mhuahahaha.

    But the US is maneuvering itself in total isolation, against the EU, Russia and China, who want to keep the Obama deal, while the US itself is sinking away in third world incompetence.

    Houston…

  22. Antius on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 2:01 am 

    “”I think Shale might have peaked..Look at this..

    Nobody gives a damn what mouth-breathers like you “think”, millimind.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Exxons-Shocking-Supply-And-Demand-Predictions.html

    4.5 trillion recoverable barrel left.

    Until 2006 1 trillion barrel consumed cumulatively throughout history:

    https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-e97495afcf11bfd992359d3e712b8437-c

    Keep on muddying the waters with your peak oil baloney, which you need for your neo-bolshevik revolution against white people.

    Not going to happen, not because of “peak oil”.

    But if you insist, you can have your ass kicked regardless.”

    Never quite sure what either of you are getting at. MM seems to be obsessed with the prospect of sudden global civilizational collapse. Cloggie appears to believe that oil supply limits are either irrelevant or do not exist. In my opinion, neither of you get it quite right.

    In terms of ‘peak oil’, it happened in conventional crude some 13 years ago. Since then, all new demand growth has been met by unconventional resources and crude production has been on a slowly declining plateau. The reason that that matters is that it generally implies substantially greater production costs for each new barrel and lower net energy. This is why new investments remain inadequate for future projected demand, even though prices are generally at or near $70 per barrel. Higher energy costs result in a drag on economic growth, something that you can clearly observe in GDP figures from 2008 onwards. GDP has continued to increase in the US and in emerging markets; but only at the expense of rapidly increasing debt, which is going to bite in the years ahead as the world hits another financial crisis.

    What Cloggie appears to be referring to, is total proved and probable liquid resources. Hence, proof that we are not approaching an absolute limit in terms of liquid availability in the short term, i.e. we are not running out of physical resource as such. Such estimates ignore production costs, net energy and other resource limits that will place bottlenecks on the rate of production and realistic minimum production costs per barrel.

    The problem we face is that prosperity is a function of net energy. The systems that we have built up depend upon a certain level of net energy in specific forms (liquids, electricity, etc.) in order to allow continuing production of wealth. The generally increasing debt-GDP ratio across the world since around 2000, would appear to indicate that energy is too expensive in terms of $ and EROI to support the lifestyles to which we have become accustomed.

    It is largely for this reason, that I have consistently emphasised the need to transition to an electric based energy economy, with cheap electricity sources, such as nuclear power or large-scale renewable energy with demand management. The reason is that these options can provide exergy (that is work energy) at a cost comparable to that of historical fossil fuels during the 20th century, although renewables are by far the weaker of the two in their requirement for storage and demand management.

    Ultimately, nothing will allow continuous growth of human numbers and prosperity on a finite planet. That I why I have consistently advocated that we explore options for no longer being limited to a finite planet. The works of Robert Zubrin, Gerard O’Neill and Elon Musk, indicate the approximate direction of travel that we need to follow, with Gerard O’Neill probably being the closest.

  23. Davy on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 5:27 am 

    “If that is the case it is because of sadists like you, who can’t accept that Iran is no longer a US colony, Mhuahahaha.”
    Just stating the facts neder, why are you so emotional about it. If anyone is a sadist it is you and billy who constantly hype war and death for Americans. You two are sick old men that need help but being completely alone you have none.

    “But the US is maneuvering itself in total isolation, against the EU, Russia and China, who want to keep the Obama deal, while the US itself is sinking away in third world incompetence.”
    The US is maneuvering and it is doing some alienating but in this screwed up world it is “Realpolitik”. You anti-American extremist always want to dramatize the US position as completely bad and talk up the other side as completely good. It is this black and white extremism that proves your message is emotional, subjective, and overflowing with personal agenda IOW a fraud.

  24. Davy on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 6:18 am 

    Debt is more than an energy issue that is causing the increasing debt-GDP ratio. Energy is part of it but mostly it is a combination of many factors that systematically combine to show a compression of real growth that is positive and sustainable. This compression of sustainable productive growth is behavioral and demographic. We have far too many people not contributing. We have activities that are wasteful and destructive but represented as positive growth. We have environmental degradation and social decline that underlies a declining debt-GDP ratio with entropic drag. Infrastructure is aging and in disrepair but represented as fully funded. We have unfunded promises that are beyond what is realistic. Unfunded liabilities are surfacing because debt is now part of a game of expected returns that are not being realized. Instead of 6% average returns the real rate of return is marginal if not negative longer term hence unfunded.

    Macro debt is just an expression of decline and dysfunction. This debt is what happens when promises and expectations are made but are not realistic considering reality longer term. The time value of money is being played with. We are cashing in returns now that are not being realized. Markets and assets that no longer reflect real price discovery that comes with proper expression of markets have developed. Markets that are fair with proper accounting principles and the rule of law being followed are being corrupted. Debt is part of money creation in modern economies and this is also becoming excessive and likely before long dysfunctional. We have central banks tweaking demand by employing debt. The problem then becomes the accumulation of this debt that was employed but did not create the return that it is being represented and required. Some debt is worthless but retains value buy dubious accounting. We have malinvestment that then becomes bad debt but represented as real and positive. We have a situation where the cleansing of an economic recession is not allowed and which may not be possible except with destructive consequences. Even though there has not been an aggregate recession we still have had the systematic decay and economic abandonment that results in irrational and dysfunctional results to the social fabric and structural networks. Wealth transfer and class destruction is occurring because economic policies are benefiting a few and certain sectors. These few and certain sectors are now parasitic and becoming corrupt. Corruption is another form of dysfunction that debt is mirroring. We see how corporations are buying back debt because the price of money is low and available so they profit form juicing the markets. This then is reflected in more debt and is not real productivity. It becomes a gaming of numbers that in the end makes a few wealthier at the cost to the public as a whole. This is a classic expression of a Ponzi arrangement but in this case macro and a civilization

    Debt is misunderstood. It is treated as a villain when it is just a reflection of villains. The villains are human and they are us. Yes, they are especially the rich and connected that allowed this but they are also all of us because this is what happens to civilizations in the environmental process of succession. Ecosystems which our civilization actually is, cycle and ours is cycling rapidly into a bifurcation where boundaries are being approached and will eventually be crossed. This state we are in is being caused because we are a finite system which is experiencing perturbations from a healthy and normal state. This is what happens and has happened to all civilizations.

    Energy is part of this but it is not the only reason. With proper behavior and an economic and social system properly employed energy issues could be dealt with and likely would not be problematic for many more years. Yet, anytime you are relying on energy sources that are finite you are building a society that will fail. We also have technology which is energy is a component of, being employed to make this civilization ever more efficient and powerful but the results are also destructive both socially and environmentally. Technology is part of the solution and the problem. In our case it is the snake eating its tail because we do not have the wisdom to employ technology wisely so we are employing ever more with the same dysfunctional results. We especially do not have the wisdom to say no to more energy and technology.

    So in the end debt is just the glow of all this like a late night look of a city in the distance. Macro debt is not a thing it is an abstract state. Debt at the level of individuals and groups is a different story but the debt we often refer to in the abstract is altogether different. It is a reflection of a civilization in overshoot with population and its consumption. It is as simple and as complicated as that.

  25. Davy on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 6:47 am 

    Another European black swan surfaces.

    “Turkey Meltdown: Lira Implodes As Panicked Sellers Spark Global Contagion”
    https://tinyurl.com/y7z7t6bt

    “Friday’s fall came after the Financial Times reported that supervisors at the European Central Bank are concerned about exposure of some of Europe’s biggest lenders to Turkey, including chiefly BBVA, UniCredit and BNP Paribas. The FT reported that along with the currency’s decline, the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism has begun to look more closely at European lenders’ links with Turkey. The moves also came after the US showed no signs of lifting crippling sanctions despite the visit of a Turkish delegation to the US capital.”

    “According to the FT, the ECB is concerned about the risk that Turkish borrowers might not be hedged against the lira’s weakness and begin to default on foreign currency loans, which make up about 40% of the Turkish banking sector’s assets. And while it does not yet view the situation as critical, it sees Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s UniCredit and France’s BNP Paribas, which all have significant operations in Turkey, as particularly exposed, according to two people familiar with the matter. The ECB news hit Turkey like a rock: “The key to any hope of Turkish stability is the ability for banks to roll over syndicated loans — so far, that’s been absolutely fine,” said Paul McNamara, a money-manager at GAM UK in London. “I think the FT thing about the ECB being worried about Turkey exposures is a huge new factor.” Contagion quickly spread as the banks named by the ECB as exposed to Turkey saw their stocks plunge as the shockwave spread around the world: Europe’s banks opened on Friday under pressure. The Euro Stoxx Banks index dropped 0.5% in early trading, with BBVA, UniCredit and BNP Paribas among those drawing most scrutiny. Shares in BBVA, UniCredit and BNP Paribas were all down more than 3% on Friday morning.”

  26. cam on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 7:03 am 

    This is a non-story since the US is not a net exporter of oil. So where is the oil actually coming from?

  27. Antius on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 7:04 am 

    Turkish M1 money supply has increased by a factor of five since 2010 and has more than tripled since 2013, when Turkish GDP appears to have peaked.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/money-supply-m1

    https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/gdp

    There have been high levels on bankruptcy since 2010

    https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/bankruptcies

    Unemployment rate has surged from an already high base since 2009…

    https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/employment-rate

    …as has private debt:

    https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/private-debt-to-gdp

  28. GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieDieGracefully on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 7:39 am 

    Turkey seem to be heading toward Venezuela,Mexico and Brazil type of collapse.

    Another country to watch is Australia. Their currency went down relative to the US dollar.

    Is Australia be the first Western country to experience currency collapse and hyper inflation.

    Which western country currency will be the first one to collaspe.

  29. GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieDieGracefully on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 7:42 am 

    https://www.xe.com/fr/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=USD&view=5Y

    Currency exchange. For AUD.

  30. Antius on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 8:00 am 

    “Which western country currency will be the first one to collaspe.”

    I would wager mine:

    https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/

    Some of the figures in the article put the problem into context:

    1. …against current growth expectations of about 1.4%, the UK typically borrows 5.7% of GDP each year.

    2. …‘clean’ GDP per capita has decreased by 5.1% since 2003.

    3. On a post-ECoE basis, prosperity per capita in Britain has fallen by 10.3% (£2,540), to £22,020 last year from a peak of £24,550 in 2003. Prosperity has declined in other Western countries over the same period, but Italy is the only major economy where the fall has been as rapid as in the UK.

    4. In short, the average person is getting poorer at rates of between 0.5% and 1.0% each year.

    5. Trends in debt ratios reflect deteriorating prosperity. Aggregate debt at the end of 2017 (£5.25tn) equates to 258% of GDP but 361% of prosperity, the latter number having risen markedly since 2007 (283%).

    6. More worryingly, the rise in debt exposure has been matched by sharp increases in proportionate financial assets, a measure of the size of the banking system. The most recent figure, for the end of 2016, puts Britain’s financial assets at 1124% of GDP, but this rises to 1547% when prosperity, rather than GDP, is used as the denominator.

    No wonder people are pissed off. Brexit is an act of desperation, rather like a man trying to cut off his arm to prevent it infecting the rest of his body. But with the economy having ‘lost so much blood’ already, it seems unlikely that the UK can survive the operation.

  31. Cloggie on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 8:41 am 

    “Another European black swan surfaces.
    “Turkey Meltdown: Lira Implodes As Panicked Sellers Spark Global Contagion””

    Since when is muslim Turkey European?

    I know davy that education is not your cup of tea, but you are really pushing it. You give Missouri a bad name.

    /rolleyes

  32. Antius on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 9:00 am 

    Cloggie, European banks are heavily invested in Turkey, and their assets just got devalued. Until recently, it was an EU client state. Now it is a Russian client state.

  33. Antius on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 9:05 am 

    This looks a lot to me, like the beginning of Global Financial Crisis Round 2. Could be wrong of course.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-10/its-fking-bloodbath-emerging-markets-collapse-turkey-tantrum-spread

  34. Davy on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 9:11 am 

    Neder, do they teach geography in Nederland? I know you have your own special maps on your extremist WordPress but that does not mean that is the geography taught by science.

  35. GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanRaceDieGracefully on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 9:42 am 

    Collapse of Turkey will likely cause mass migration toward Europe and more housing and race conflict in Europe.

    Turkey is really close to Europe, once Turkey collapse, that might open migratory route for middle-east people.

    This is something to watch and could potentially by a black swan event

  36. Cloggie on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 10:04 am 

    Cloggie, European banks are heavily invested in Turkey, and their assets just got devalued. Until recently, it was an EU client state. Now it is a Russian client state.

    Indonesia before Churchill was a Dutch client state, just like before Churchill India was a British client state.

    That doesn’t make neither Indonesia not India European, the issue we are discussing here.

  37. Cloggie on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 10:05 am 

    not=nor

  38. Davy on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 10:25 am 

    “Turkey is really close to Europe, once Turkey collapse, that might open migratory route for middle-east people.”

    Turkey is likely not going to collapse. Turkey is too interconnected in multiple ways. The system will make the necessary effort to keep it whole. Turkey will have to adjust economically because these events do not come without costs and the hyper nationalistic policies of Erdogan will probably be tamed somewhat. This crisis was in the making even though it was triggered by US sanctions. It is possible Erdogan wanted this crisis to have an excuse to move closer to Russia, China, and Iran. What he underestimated is Turkey’s connections to Europe and the west. He can’t have it both ways in this torn apart world. Maybe Russia and China will come to his aid but like Venezuela and Syria at great costs.

  39. Davy on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 10:47 am 

    This is what is going on under the nationalistic hype:

    “Why Turkey Is Doomed In Two Charts”
    https://tinyurl.com/y8d4kqt7

    “While one can point to Turkey’s soaring inflation, plunging currency, surging interest rates or slumping stock market, the biggest threat facing Turkey is a structural one: its desperate need for foreign funding to cover its current account deficit.”

    “He then notes that floating vs. fixed exchange rates are an important difference compared with the EM crises of yesteryear, but adds that the starting point for Turkey’s recent volatility is that these USD funding needs are extremely significant, much more so than other EMs, and are also the reason for why the market has finally started paying attention to Turkey as a result of foreign bank exposure to Turkey, because should these foreign inflows stop, the entire Turkish economy is in danger of a sudden freeze. And, as the chart below shows, while Turkey is technically considered an emerging market, where it makes a sharp break with convention is that its external funding need is greater than the average Frontier Market. Should these inflows stop, as a result of a loss of confidence in the country, all bets are off.”

    “But wait there’s more, because as JPMorgan showed 2 months ago, Turkey faces a secondary threat in addition to its gaping current account deficit: a massive and growing debt load. If foreign buyers of Turkish debt go on strike, or if Turkey is unable to rollover near-term maturities, watch how quickly the currency crisis transforms into a broad economic collapse.”

    “So is there anything that can break the toxic spiral that Turkey finds itself in? Yes: a rate hike big enough to shock the market, coupled with an IMF bailout to backstop the country and restore foreign investor confidence.”

    “The problem is that neither of those are likely in the context of the Erdogan regime.”

  40. Cloggie on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 10:58 am 

    This just in:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/turkey-tariffs-us-trump-erdogan-lira-andrew-brunson-steel-aluminium-dollar-a8486361.html

    “Trump doubles steel and aluminium tariffs on Turkey amid row over detained US pastor
    Move come as Turkey’s economy stumbles”

    Trump doing everything do estrange Turkey from the West.

    I love it, way to go Donald!

  41. MASTERMIND on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 11:06 am 

    Clogg

    This just in..I bet you think you are really on to something..You are totally obsessed with political leaders..Let me give you some advice..The government can’t protect you from the collapse coming.

  42. Cloggie on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 11:10 am 

    Cloggie appears to believe that oil supply limits are either irrelevant or do not exist. In my opinion, neither of you get it quite right.

    Let me restate my judgments:

    – I do NOT believe in BAU, society is going to contract, so be it. It is going to be a race against time to preempt the white demographic implosion, third world invasion and rising energy prices to nevertheless keep some resemblance with the old mode of living
    – Climate change, not non-existing short term fossil energy shortages is going to be the defining event. Yes we are entering a “third carbon age”, with virtually endless amounts of fuel, accessible with new technologies (unfortunately, for climate reasons)
    – There is enough fossil fuel left to set up a renewable energy base, which initially is going to be a costly enterprise.
    – Without delay we should move into renewables, read: follow EU energy policies

  43. MASTERMIND on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 11:27 am 

    Clogg

    There isn’t enough fossil fuels left to set up anything..And here are 65 reasons why.

    https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg

    Time to grow up fat boy..and face the music

  44. Cloggie on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 11:33 am 

    Exxon says 4.5 trillion barrels left. I have long stopped relying on poorly educated drama queen individuals with grand tales, people of the likes of Heinberg or you.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Heinberg

    Heinberg, after two years in college and a period of personal study, became personal assistant to Immanuel Velikovsky in November 1979. After Velikovsky’s death, Heinberg assisted his widow in editing manuscripts. He published his first book in 1989, Memories and Visions of Paradise: Exploring the Universal Myth of a Lost Golden Age

    LOL

  45. MASTERMIND on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 11:46 am 

    Global Debt Topped $247 Trillion in the First Quarter, IIF Says

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-10/global-debt-topped-247-trillion-in-the-first-quarter-iif-says

  46. MASTERMIND on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 11:49 am 

    Clogg

    The IEA, Saudi Arabia, HSBC, Citigroup, and former head of EIA, Say something different..

    Is The World Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#509edc8b44cf

  47. MASTERMIND on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 11:53 am 

    Clogg

    The End of the Oil Age is Imminent!

    Recently, the HSBC oil report stated that 80% of conventional oil fields were declining at a rate of 5-7% per year. This means that there will be an oil shortage of ~30 million barrels per day by 2030 and ~40 million barrels per day by 2040.
    http://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

    What is mentioned far less often is that annual oil discoveries have lagged annual production since the 1980s.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

    Now, this problem has nothing to do with the recent decline in the oil price, which started in 2014. This has been an on-going problem for the past 30 years. Now, the IEA is predicting oil shortages by ~2020 due to declining exploration.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Here, the IEA blames this problem on the low oil price. But, this problem started in the 1980s. The problem is geological: we are running out of conventional cheap oil. Shale and tar sands are not the answer, either. Those resources are far too expensive, compared to conventional oil, because the global economy is based on cheap conventional oil. Expensive oil is not a replacement for cheap oil.

    Based upon the HSBC report and the IEA, the End of Oil Age will start around ~2020: there will be a dramatic economic depression due to exhaustion of cheap oil. This will cause a global economic collapse.

  48. MASTERMIND on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 11:54 am 

    ‘Peak Oil’ and the German Government
    Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

    The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the “total collapse of the markets” and of serious political and economic crises.

    The study, whose authenticity was confirmed to SPIEGEL ONLINE by sources in government circles, was not meant for publication.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/peak-oil-and-the-german-government-military-study-warns-of-a-potentially-drastic-oil-crisis-a-715138.html

  49. MASTERMIND on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 11:55 am 

    Clogg

    The easy oil is gone

    Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s.

    Every year since 1984 oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery.

    In 2017 oil discoveries were about 7 billion barrels; consumption was about 35 billion barrels

    Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were discovered 1917-1968; 2 in the 1970’s; 0 since.

    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
    https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php

  50. Davy on Fri, 10th Aug 2018 12:51 pm 

    Greece, Italy, now Turkey….

    “Turkey Could Create A Larger Crisis Than Greece”
    https://tinyurl.com/ydgqo6k2

    “First and foremost, the lira decline has been ongoing for some time, and has nothing to do with the strength of the US dollar in 2018 The collapse of Turkey was an accident waiting to happen and is fully self-inflicted. It is yet another evidence of the trainwreck that monetarists cause in economies. Those that say that “a country with monetary sovereignty can issue all the currency it wants without risk of default ” are wrong yet again. Like in Argentina, Brazil, Iran, Venezuela, monetary sovereignty means nothing without strong fundamentals to back the currency. Turkey took all the actions that MMT lovers applaud. The Erdogan government seized control of the central bank, and decided to print and keep extremely low rates to “boost the economy” without any measure or control.”

    “Because the problem of Turkey is monetary and fiscal. Turkey will need a massive adjustment program and a credible opening of its institutions and markets to attract capital and restore growth. Unfortunately, the route seems to be more government control of institutions, less investment security and deepening the crisis blaming the inexistent external enemy. Erdogan is fighting against a very dangerous economic foe. Himself. For Europe, this is a devil’s alternative: Bailing out Turkey will give further control to Erdogan and increase the imbalances of the economy while imposing higher restrictions to freedom. Not bailing out Turkey, on the other hand, would cause a much larger crisis than Greece was. Because too many eurozone funds and bank investments have been directed towards Turkey as a way to get access to some growth and inflation. What they got was a risk of capital controls and currency debasement. The biggest risk for Europe will be to try to cover this mess with some aid in exchange for refugee and border support. Because what is already a relevant risk, but contained, will likely balloon to unmanageable proportions.”

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