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Page added on November 19, 2022

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All Hell Will Break Loose for Oil in 2023…

Business

All hell will break loose for oil in 2023… but only if one event fails to take place.

Can you guess what it is?

Right now, it’s the ONLY thing stopping oil prices from being far higher than the $81.85 per barrel that WTI is trading for as I write this. 

But let’s put a little more perspective on this, shall we? 

A few weeks ago, the price of WTI crude reached as high as $93.74 per barrel, which, at the time, was the highest it’s been since the end of August. 

That rally was quickly shot down by a market that turned bearish, with WTI prices suddenly plummeting by 12.5% over the last two weeks. 

But mark my words: The market is wrong this time.

Breaking Loose in 2023

Something feels off in the oil markets.

In its latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the EIA reported a 9.5 million-barrel draw from commercial inventories, which includes a release of 4.1 million barrels from the SPR. 

Take a look for yourself:

EIA OIL

Never mind that our strategic reserves are at a 40-year low or the fact that U.S. crude output remains at 12.1 million barrels per day (still 1 million barrels per day shy of the record that was set in March 2020). The truth is that oil prices should be climbing right now. 

Like I said, something feels… off.

Personally, I’d like to see how the market feels when the SPR gravy train ends and we start seeing real drawdowns during a season that’s typically weak for oil. 

Even with a few permabears out there, this certainly doesn’t warrant such a huge slide in oil prices

More importantly, if we still see strong demand levels in the U.S. heading into winter, we’ll soon find ourselves in a position begging for more oil from the strategic reserves. 

Today, there’s only one thing stopping oil from pushing back toward $100 per barrel.

At this point, you have to be wondering the same thing I am — where is this volatility coming from?

Most superstitious traders like to avoid using the R-word like the plague, but in oil’s case, the only thing that is preventing runaway prices is the looming threat of recession. 

The only threat to oil in 2023 is a weaker economy. With oil being the lifeblood of the U.S. economy, any slowdowns in demand would rightly push bearish market sentiment even more negative.

After watching the EIA post revision after revision to previous demand estimates, I wouldn’t be surprised if consumption levels are actually much higher today than we’ve been told.

Of course, we’re not even considering the fact that China has yet to come out of its own recent COVID lockdowns. 

When that happens, more exports will be sucked up by China, and there won’t be much left in the SPR to save us from runaway oil prices a second time. 

Fortunately, there’s only one way investors can properly navigate through these tumultuous markets. Let me show you how my readers are doing it.

 

Until next time,

Keith Kohl Signature

Keith Kohl



11 Comments on "All Hell Will Break Loose for Oil in 2023…"

  1. makati1 on Sat, 19th Nov 2022 3:05 pm 

    Yes, 2023 is going to be a very world changing year, for many reasons.

    1. Possible European war.
    2. Possible Middle East war.
    3. Possible World war.
    4. Economies in the West crashing.
    5. Economic depressions.
    6. Energy/food prices climbing.
    7. Riots in the West.
    8. Declining US dollar value/use.
    9. Rampant inflation.
    10. More loss of freedoms.
    11. Many more GMO-JAB deaths.
    12. Etc.

    Buckle up! The worst is yet to come.

  2. Biden’s hairplug on Sun, 20th Nov 2022 3:54 am 

    The British are already regretting this Brexit stupidity:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11449227/New-Tory-Brexit-civil-war-ministers-warn-NOT-Swiss-style-ties.html#comments

    “Tory civil war on Brexit reignites over plan for ‘Swiss-style’ deal: Ministers deny claims that No 10 is mulling closer ties with the EU that could mean accepting bloc’s law, paying into Brussels coffers and higher immigration“

    A lot of water will flow under the bridge until the English finally come to their senses, if any. Until that moment we’ll have:

    – Scexit vote
    – a lot of UK industry and finance moving to EU
    – UK downgraded to Moody-A status (NW-Europe still has stable AAA)
    – continued growth of political right in EU, like now in Italy
    – end war Ukraine, with Russian victory
    – defeat US in East-Asia over Taiwan.
    – rapprochement EU-Russia

    We’ll be living in a different world by then

  3. Dredd on Sun, 20th Nov 2022 8:43 am 

    What is off is that oil is in our genes (Quantum Biology – 17).

  4. Ted Wilson on Sun, 20th Nov 2022 10:45 am 

    Brits tried to overthrow Putin and install a puppet in Moscow and loot their resources.

    Now they lost 2 prime ministers and ended up with an Indian being their prime minister.

    What an unexpected turn of events.

  5. makati1 on Sun, 20th Nov 2022 8:02 pm 

    Unexpected? Not if you know what is happening in the real world. The West is going insane and committing suicide. The only really intelligent leaders in the world today are Putin and XI. The only real powers are Russia and China. The future is in the East.

  6. Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 21st Nov 2022 3:20 pm 

    So why not trade your belief and make a killing trading oil? So many internet clowns claiming they know what will happen with a high degree of certainty. So much randomness.

    Disclosure: I don’t know what will happen in the short to intermediate term in the financial markets, since I can’t see the future — but at least I admit it.

    Long term, stocks tend to grow with the global economy (re broad indexes like the S&P 500), but 3 decades is a long time to wait to have an extremely high degree of confidence.

  7. Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 21st Nov 2022 3:21 pm 

    mak calling Putin intelligent, even as he destroy’s Russia’s financial future.

    “Brilliant” as usual… /s

  8. makati1 on Mon, 21st Nov 2022 9:08 pm 

    Calling you “intelligent” would be a sick joke, Outcast. Your MSM brainwashed Russophobia is blatant. As long as you sit in that heating pot called Amerika, you will be blind to the destruction coming to you. So be it.

    BTW: what is happening to the US/Western financial future? Last time I looked(this morning) it is in a deep recession, headed for another great depression. The government numbers are pure fantasy and bullshit.

    The real world is the millions on the street, and millions more to come next year.

    Real inflation is in the double digits.

    Millions will be laid-off/fired by the end of this year with millions more to follow next year.

    US drug use and deaths are going up.

    US Crime is going up.

    US suicides are going up.

    US life expectancy is going down.

    ETC. Yep…point a finger at Russia (or China),but remember, when you do so, four are pointing back at you. Amerikans are super hypocrites, getting what they deserve. Payback is a bitch!

    P.S. Only suckers and fools are still in the market casino. I predict DOW at <10,000 by 2024. I never played the market casino. If I want to gamble, I go where I get free drinks and entertainment.

  9. makati1 on Mon, 21st Nov 2022 9:37 pm 

    Outcast, you might want to take a look at what the US supports with your tax dollars.

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/welfare-recipients-by-state

    The 2021 US Welfare budget was: $ 1,056,000,000,000.00. Throw in semi-welfare like Social Security and Medicare, another $ 1,877,000,000,000.00, and you get a total of almost three trillion dollars. But when that ends…?

    Yep! Amerika is the place to be. Biden is adding millions more to the welfare line every year. I’m glad I no longer pay any taxes to the US, but I will take the money I paid into S.S. for almost 50 years, until I or it ends. I expect to outlast it. We shall see.

  10. Theedrich on Tue, 22nd Nov 2022 12:11 am 

    Biden-backed Zelensky is aiming for World War 3. After his “accidental” drone attack on Poland, he is now attempting to blow up the Zaporozhye (Запоро́жье) nuclear power plant, blaming it, of course, on Russia.  Never mind the countless other provocations the U.S. has launched against Russia and Germany (as with the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage using the UK for the dirty work), to get a war started between NATO (i.e., America) and Russland.  Meanwhile, lies and hypocrisy remain the essence of Western governments.

    If the war-criminal comedian in Kiev succeeds in causing a European nuclear disaster far worse than Chernobyl by bombing the Zaporozhye plant, it will be because Biden gave him the HI-MARS and other means to do so, and told him that superduperland wants him to go ahead with Armageddon.  Biden and the Democrats will “Build Back Better.”

    If there’s anything left to build back from, that is.

    𝖁𝖊𝖗𝖎𝖙𝖆𝖘 𝖑𝖎𝖇𝖊𝖗𝖆𝖇𝖎𝖙 𝖛𝖔𝖘.

  11. makati1 on Fri, 25th Nov 2022 4:37 pm 

    As I have been saying…

    “World shifting from West to East – BRICS forum president to RT”

    “The trade bloc offers a new model of growth entailing equal rights and opportunities for members, Purnima Anand says
    The role of BRICS on the global stage is increasing every day and many countries are attracted to the economic bloc by the new solutions and stability it offers. That’s according to the president of the BRICS International Forum, Purnima Anand, who spoke exclusively to RT this week.
    The BRICS group of emerging economies currently consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The bloc accounts for more than 40% of the world’s population and nearly a quarter of global GDP.
    With Western economies in decline, many countries, even members of OPEC and OECD, are now interested in the stability that BRICS has to offer, Anand noted. In particular, she mentioned OECD member Türkiye, which is currently applying for BRICS membership.
    Many countries that are friendly to BRICS are joining the bloc, she said, adding “So, this is [the] time when power is shifting from West to East.”
    The official, however, stressed that BRICS is not “a competitor of the Western economy.” BRICS nations cooperate and have a common perspective, because “we don’t want to develop another model of the Western economy and democratic process; we want a new model where all the members have equal rights and opportunities to grow together.”
    Anand argued that for a long time Western powers had been using the whole planet in their interests, exploiting both the human and natural resources of other countries and continents. In the Western economic growth model, some countries “are very high, while others very low and don’t get an opportunity for their economic development,” she noted.
    Today, the countries comprising the Eastern world understand what the West is doing and what is good for them, Anand said.
    The BRICS forum president emphasized that the whole world is currently in a very “disturbing” situation, with inflation running high and countries looking for solutions. Meanwhile, China, Russia, and India have started transitioning to using their local currencies in trade, which shows that there are alternative solutions within the BRICS bloc.
    Talking about Western sanctions against Russia, she said the restrictions are creating an opportunity for BRICS economies. “This is very high time for BRICS partners and alliances to create good structure … to understand where we are moving, what cooperation is required, and what new dimensions are developing by the participation of new members,” Anand said.”

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