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Page added on November 30, 2020

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Why Oil Won’t “Go Gentle Into That Good Night”

Alternative Energy

The progressive goal to “transition” away from oil might not be as easy as some proclaim. In the U.S., oil has been our main source of energy since 1950, when it surpassed coal. Along with its sister energy source, natural gas, oil dominates the immense U.S. energy complex (see Figure). In the U.S., more than 265 million cars run on oil-based products such as gasoline and diesel fuel; less than 2 million run on electricity.

Oil won the transport race because it packs a much bigger punch than alternatives. For example, the energy density of gasoline is approximately 47.5 megajoules per kilogram, or some 100 times more than that of an electric car’s lithium-ion battery (about 0.4 MJ/kg). Most Americans probably don’t realize that back in 1900, 40% of U.S. cars were electric, though they were soon overtaken by Ford’s more powerful Model T and its gasoline-powered internal combustion engine (ICE). Oil’s indispensability is clear for heavy trucking, and even more so in aviation: there is no battery-powered 737, and there never will be.

While wind and solar are undoubtedly growing in importance, they are merely sources of electricity, so they do little to displace our need for oil in transportation. U.S. politicians looking to restrict choice by forcing on us more expensive, less convenient options such as electric cars should be careful. Such overreach in energy policy could easily face a public backlash at the polls – and, as the 2018 Paris Yellow Vest protests showed, such reactions can even manifest themselves in the streets.

Each day in 2019, Americans consumed 410 million gallons of gasoline, 170 million gallons of diesel fuel, and 75 million gallons of jet fuel – an entrenched energy system that will be extraordinarily difficult to overturn. It routinely gets ignored, for instance, that ICEs are constantly evolving just like electric cars – always getting smaller, better, faster, and cleaner.

              

Ultimately, though, the real gains for oil exist globally, which is why the U.S. oil industry sees exports as its biggest new opportunity. Representing 33% of all energy use, oil underpins globalization and has no material substitute. Nearly 85% of the world’s population today lives in still-developing countries (i.e., non-OECD), where human development understandably takes priority over reducing CO2 emissions. And these nations can’t help but notice that the most developed countries consume the most oil. The average American uses 2.6 gallons of oil per day, compared to 0.45 for the Chinese and less than 0.2 for Indians.

If electric cars were so commercially viable, companies would have been relentlessly pursuing their development long ago, and rich nations would not have to force their adoption on citizens. In addition, a switch to electric cars raises other complications. It would demand a mining (for the critical materials needed to produce them) and electricity generation boom that many environmentalists themselves oppose. An electric car, for instance, can surge a home’s power needs by 50% or more – explaining why, for China and India, they would be more aptly described as “coal cars.”

If oil usage ever did drop in any structural way, it would just lower the cost of its derivatives, making gasoline and diesel even more enticing for the world’s poor. Beyond transport, the International Energy Agency for years has touted petrochemicals as the safest bet for “more oil,” now representing 12-15% of all demand. A lack of substitutes means that growth in this sector could even compensate for any lost oil demand in transportation in the already-developed world. The quiet reality is that, leaving transportation aside, there are over 6,000 everyday products made from oil.

In 2020, its roughest year ever, the oil industry continues to march forward. A greater focus on reducing fugitive methane leaks and flaring, deploying cleaner and more efficient technologies, and leveraging net-zero goals is essential to enhance the industry’s environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) positioning. But the November rise in oil prices, along with a stock market rally for some E&P firms on positive vaccine news, suggests that the industry’s 2020 problems are more temporal than structural. For now, oil supply far outstrips demand, but that won’t last – and an inevitable rebound in demand might just also make an oil price spike inevitable.

RealClearEnergy



40 Comments on "Why Oil Won’t “Go Gentle Into That Good Night”"

  1. Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 30th Nov 2020 10:45 am 

    Absolutely right. Given global growth, inclludng all the third worlders aspiring to first world middle class lifestyles (including consumption), when in X decades EV’s have largely supplanted ICE’s, the rise of global petrochemical demand is likely to make the transaction a relative nonevent re total crude oil demand. It’s hard to imagine substitutes changing that much within the next several decades, given the volumes of crude involved.

    But it’s popular and politically correct to talk of dumping all oil stocks, “the end of oil, etc. The hell with facts, math, trends, scale, logic, or any other inconveniences re the magical green story.

    And I’m ALL FOR EV’s, especially HEV’s and then PHEV’s as fantastic transitional vehicles with an ever-improving cost benefit ratio and NO range issues if charging is problematic at times. But the math and the facts always matter.

  2. Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 30th Nov 2020 10:47 am 

    I should have said “transition” instead of “transaction” in my post above. I still hate the inability to make corrections of the posts here, via a simple text editor.

  3. The Nationalist on Mon, 30th Nov 2020 10:48 am 

    Hey but don’t tell that to the shit for brains they’ll call you a rayciss!

  4. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 30th Nov 2020 11:46 am 

    This “The progressive goal to “transition” away from oil” is to trigger conservatards.

    The emotional button.

    Like I’ve said for years, one need only look at the data for oil extraction & consumption to know that there has been no success whatsoever transitioning away from or reducing oil consumption.

    EROEI dictates oil, not infantile progressive green dreams.

    No worries, there’s still over a hundred other ‘progressive goals’ to rage & get bent out of shape over & 1 or 2 of them may actually have the potential to happen – OMG Run for your lives!

  5. Michael Rynn on Mon, 30th Nov 2020 6:04 pm 

    Your tone is that fossil fuel industries do not intend to let go of their grip on their political power over military and economic systems, despite collapsing global biosphere systems. Sure, energy dense oil is irreplaceable. That is why using it up as fast as possible is so irretrievably stupid.
    World’s poor are getting poorer, because the oil based economic systems that exploit them.
    Enticements to all those exploited oil consumers will have to be way below costs of production. Demand will fall as general exploitation increases. This is system over-kill. Try selling your oil to citizens in Yemen.

  6. emelybrown on Tue, 1st Dec 2020 6:20 am 

    Another good article. Oil and gas are here to stay simply becasue of the thousands of products that can’t be made without them. Including every electric vehicle that the green movement wants to put on the road. Impossible without oil and gas.

  7. Antus on Tue, 1st Dec 2020 8:21 am 

    Here is the materials budget for a 5.55TWh per year (633.7MW average) PV solar plant that was considered for Colorado.

    http://nature.berkeley.edu/er100/readings/Pacca_2002.pdf

    Steel: 4.6 million tonnes
    Copper: 480,000 tonnes
    Aluminium: 177,000 tonnes
    Cement: 2.22 million tonnes
    Glass: 1.066 million tonnes
    Electricity: 7.56 million MWh

    Presumably, the electricity is that required to manufacture the photovoltaic material.

    I divided this down into materials per average MW because I wanted to see how it would compare with wind power. Here are the results per average MW:

    Steel: 7259 tonnes
    Copper: 757.5 tonnes
    Aluminium: 280.6 tonnes
    Cement: 3503 tonnes
    Glass: 1682.2 tonnes

    The steel alone, presumably for supporting frames, is around 20x more than is needed for an average MW of wind power. The payback time for the steel alone, is 5.5-7.0 years. The electricity: 1.36 years. The cement: 40 days. The glass: 290 days. Summary: energy payback time about 8 years. If the station has a lifetime of 30 years say, then ERoEI would be about 4.0.

    I thought the embodied energy and materials budget of wind power was bad. But solar comfortably puts them in the shade. Of course, Colarado isn’t the sunniest place in the world. But it is sunnier than most of Europe.

  8. Dredd on Tue, 1st Dec 2020 8:50 am 

    Neither will the ghosts of the ocean (The Ghost Plumes – 13).

  9. Antius on Tue, 1st Dec 2020 8:52 am 

    The wiki link contains a table of embodied energy for anyone wishing to do some basic energy payback time checks.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embodied_energy

    It isn’t comprehensive enough for a proper ERoEI audit, but it allows one to gain an estimate.

    Could we use solar electricity, to build a solar power plant?

    1. Virgin steel is reduced from iron ore using coke. But recycled steel can be remelted in an electric furnace. So solar electric could be used there. Of course, we need to mine the ore and transport it to the blast furnace. Could we use solar electric to do that? In principal. But it is quite different to what we do today.

    2. Glass? Glass is produced using natural gas to melt silica sand, with other additives to reduce melting point. Methane or some other combustible gas is used to reduce iron oxide, which separates by density. Could we use solar electric to do this, including mining and transporting the sand? In principle yes. But again, it would require rebooting over a large swathe of the production process.

    3. Concrete involves heating a mixture of calcium carbonate, silica and other additives to over 1200C in a rotary kiln. Could we use solar electric to do this? In principle, we could use solar power to produce hydrogen that would fuel cement kilns. But again it requires retooling, and involves energy losses in electrolysis.

    4. Machining and Installation: Could we use solar power to do this? In principle, we could use solar electric for machining, solar electric to power railways for transport and solar hydrogen to power other transportation. But again, it needs new infrastructure.

    The main problem with doing this, isn’t so much the special properties of fossil fuels. We can ultimately adapt most if not all individual processes to work without them in principle. It is trying to replace them with something that has inherently poor ERoEI, which requires a lot of imperfectly efficient processes to replace itself. If ERoEI is only 4.0, how much energy can we afford to waste producing hydrogen that we end up burning in engines and furnaces?

    On a level playing field, ERoEI is basically the inverse of unit cost. Which is why solar has historically been so expensive. Only through zero interest rates and hidden subsidies, can an energy source with ERoEI less than 10 continue to compete. The problem is that society cannot continue to subsidise low ERoEI energy as more than a minority operation. Eventually, declining ERoEI will erode prosperity and the affordability of subsidy. We are seeing that already.

  10. Antius on Tue, 1st Dec 2020 4:32 pm 

    For those interested, there appears now to be a full English translation of 200 Years Together. Basically, the story of how Jews attempted to do to Russia what they are now doing to the US. They ultimately got slaughtered in Russia. It will be fun to see what happens in the US. Remember cowboys and indians? It didn’t turn out well for the Indians. Maybe its time to play cowboys and Juden.

    It is available for free download here:
    https://b-ok.cc/book/3647824/3d39ff

  11. makati1 on Tue, 1st Dec 2020 5:08 pm 

    Antius, I second your suggestion. Hitler was not thorough enough.

  12. FamousDrScanlon on Tue, 1st Dec 2020 5:24 pm 

    ‘Cultural Marxism’: a uniting theory for rightwingers who love to play the victim

    “What are they talking about? The tale varies in the telling, but the theory of cultural Marxism is integral to the fantasy life of the contemporary right. It depends on a crazy-mirror history, which glancingly reflects things that really happened, only to distort them in the most bizarre ways.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/19/cultural-marxism-a-uniting-theory-for-rightwingers-who-love-to-play-the-victim

    The Victim Identity

    The allergic reaction to personal responsibility means a difficult life.

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/traversing-the-inner-terrain/201102/the-victim-identity

    Not victims, losers looking to blame & for allies because misery loves company.

    Fuck do you losers ever know how to make yourselves weak.

    Your solution to the NWO is to back shoot & run over a couple of progressive kids at protests?

    That’s what you think will stop power?

    That’s the best y’all got?

    There are millions of you tough talking white faggot phony’s promising violence every fucking day for years & one of you managed to kill a girl by running her over from behind.

    How manly & inspiring.

  13. FamousDrScanlon on Tue, 1st Dec 2020 6:11 pm 

    There are millions promising violence every fucking day against JuanP becuase everyone hates the fuck for years

  14. The Nationalist on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 7:41 am 

    I agree Antius, Zionism will destroy the U.S.A. from within if the voice of reason is not heard.

  15. Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 10:55 am 

    Not all jews are self-absorbed cretins like apneaman. Many of them are able to self-reflect and be honest. Several jewish holocaust revisionists do exist (David Cole, Gerard Menuhin and others, whose names I forgot).

    Here is an example of a jewish gentlemen who refers to a real holocaust, perpetrated in the Ukraine in the thirties:

    https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3342999,00.html

    “Stalin’s Jews”

    “We mustn’t forget that some of greatest murderers of modern times were Jewish”

    We cannot know with certainty the number of deaths Cheka was responsible for in its various manifestations, but the number is surely at least 20 million, including victims of the forced collectivization, the hunger, large purges, expulsions, banishments, executions, and mass death at Gulags…

    And us, the Jews? An Israeli student finishes high school without ever hearing the name “Genrikh Yagoda,” the greatest Jewish murderer of the 20th Century, the GPU’s deputy commander and the founder and commander of the NKVD.

    Note that these crimes happened BEFORE the Germans took measures against the jews … BECAUSE of these crimes committed by high-ranked jews in the Soviet power structure. The German motivation was to prevent the communist disaster happen to Germany as it had happened to Russia. It was a matter of self-defense. And yes, many innocent jewish people were implicated. But how can you prevent that?

    If you self-identify as a jew, it automatically implicates that you see yourself as a member of “Gods Chosen People”, which automatically elevates you above the rest of mankind. That attitude can be perfectly observed with our local heeb apneaman, who expresses his contempt for other humans in every single sentence he writes.

  16. IWantBloodDeathMurderAndChaos on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 12:14 pm 

    I can stand that dumb cunt. She has a diploma in communication. She is the typical useless cunt that should have stay at home push babies out, suck dick and never open her fucking stupid mouth. Bitches like her are going to accelerate the collapse. Bring it on baby, bring in the death of politicians, electrical grid instability, food shortage, blood, murder. These kind of people have to die. They need to die before trying to build something new. Their death is absolutely necessary and a good thing. This bitch might have signed some papers to authorize some investigation on me.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zW20mdELRwk

  17. JuanP on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 1:39 pm 

    Davy, I’m all over you like stink on shit. Get used to it, Dumbass. Just learn to accept I’m a vital part of your new reality.

  18. zero juan on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 2:02 pm 

    Ppeee juan, you must be triggered to be so excited and sniveling:

    after banning luke 22:36 bumpski whitey supertard president trump is delcaring martial law said wtf

    FamousDrScanlon said Netherlands Records tumbled like leaves in unseaso…

    instead of harvestation of all our muzz now whitey supertard president trump is urged to delcare martial law which destroys the constituon to defend the constituion sounds ironic and whitey supertard president “the irishman” general flynn is in said on it as the other whitey supertard president lynn…

    JuanP said Davy, I’m all over you like stink on shit. G…

    FamousDrScanlon said November Temperature Records Smashed Across Norway…

    FamousDrScanlon said I told you morons many years ago that your fate li…

    FamousDrScanlon said On a remote peninsular in the Arctic circle, enorm…

    FamousDrScanlon said Moscow Sees Warmest Fall on Record “The news…

    FamousDrScanlon said Pandemic OVERSHOOT, ‘Great Reset’ and resistance w…

    IWantBloodDeathMurderAndChaos said I can stand that dumb cunt. She has a diploma in…

  19. FamousDrScanlon on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 2:08 pm 

    clog, “We mustn’t forget that some of greatest murderers of modern times were Jewish”

    Jews just getting started.

    They have a great sub-human CULL planned & I couldn’t be happier.

    The likes of you will be turned into liquid fertilizer so I can continue to enjoy avocado on my toast every morning.

    You should be grateful. For once in your life you’ll have served a useful purpose & all due to Jew.

    Thank you for your service.

  20. Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 2:14 pm 

    “Jews just getting started.“

    You don’t even have the presidency, you delusional freak.

  21. dumb domesticated euros without luke 2236 is worthless on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 3:05 pm 

    no (((supremetard))), no luke 33:36

    irrelevant

  22. Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 3:06 pm 

    “Bombshell Testimony Provides Irrefutable Proof Election Was Stolen. Is It Time for Martial Law? – Watch Live“

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/watch-live-push-comes-to-shove-british-army-to-go-after-anti-vaccine-militants/

    “LIVE: Sidney Powell & Lin Wood Lead Election Fraud Press Conference in Atlanta“

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/live-sidney-powell-lin-wood-hold-election-fraud-press-conference-in-atlanta/

    Again, white Americans should not aim for a 2nd Trump term, but instead use the scam as a pretext.to cancel the Union.

  23. no total harvestation of muzz here but keep enjoying that muzz milk Burnley UK: Lancashire Police Covering For The Muslim Who Stabbed 2 Women In The Neck on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 3:13 pm 

    hopefully i will own 10,000,000 acres and a few million muzz slaves soon

    we have luke 22:36 we can harvest muzz

    we just need to to learn from master race chinks

  24. when u meet kafir strike the neck reliance of the traveller on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 3:15 pm 

    total harvestation of muzz coming soon

  25. ItIsTimeToLetTheSystemBurnToTheGround on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 3:25 pm 

    I present to you another power angry provincial prime minister John Horgan.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KTXAeVfz0Q

    This piece of crap is in love with rich Chinese investor and international laundering money through BC housing. I did nothing to stop it. Whites people and Amerindians had to leave Vancouver because they could not afford to live there. This piece of crap has been reelect a second time with a majority government. This kind of shit has to stop. It is time to destroy Canada and US completely and rebuild something new from the ground up. Look at my comment above.

  26. LetTheWorldBurnDown on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 3:40 pm 

    This is interesting to me. This website peakoil.com seems dead. Very few commenters. So I am not sure if people are still reading it or not.

    If people from around Canada and the world are still reading me, I would like to say that, it is really fucked up that world leaders are taking advice form a guy on the web. I hope I am wrong on this.

    By now you would think that world leaders would have come up with a plan how to tell people about peak oil. Really disturbing that none of the world leader have a plan going forward. If it is the case (no idea what to do going forward), it means that the world is populated with mentally challenged people(world leaders seems the most mentally challenged) and letting burning the world to the ground is the right thing to do.

  27. Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 4:03 pm 

    This is what you get if you let a victiors war crimes tribunal for 70% be organized by apneaman types:

    https://christiansfortruth.com/holocaust-museum-head-explains-how-the-complete-lack-of-physical-evidence-of-the-holocaust-is-proof-it-happened/

    “Holocaust Museum Head Explains How The Complete Lack of Physical Evidence Of The Holocaust Is Proof It Happened“

    (Kudos to David Irving for the link)

    And remember folks… before you go to sleep, first visit Irvings website for the JQ-latest:

    http://www.fpp.co.uk/online/index.html

  28. zero juan on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 4:49 pm 

    JuanPpeee and hisstupid socks. FUCK JUANp.

    LetTheWorldBurnDown said This is interesting to me. This website peakoil.co…

    ItIsTimeToLetTheSystemBurnToTheGround said I present to you another power angry provincial pr…

    when u meet kafir strike the neck reliance of the traveller said total harvestation of muzz coming soon

    no total harvestation of muzz here but keep enjoying that muzz milk Burnley UK: Lancashire Police Covering For The Muslim Who Stabbed 2 Women In The Neck said hopefully i will own 10,000,000 acres and a few mi…

    dumb domesticated euros without luke 2236 is worthless said no (((supremetard))), no luke 33:36 irrelevant

    FamousDrScanlon said clog, “We mustn’t forget that some of greatest mur…

  29. JuanP on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 4:54 pm 

    I can’t see you becuase I am in a pussy

  30. FamousDrScanlon on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 5:11 pm 

    Poor clog still fighting a war (in your head) that ended in 1945 – the year you were born.

    The defeat, the Jews, libtards, migrants – if none of them existed you would find other ‘others’ to hate in your futile bid to feel big & special by attempting to make other look small.

    That you still spend all your days playing ‘I’m superior’ well into your 7th decade is a pretty solid indication it hasn’t worked.

    Alas, you’ll always feel small clog.

    You’re a bitch clog. A habitual malcontent. Regardless of circumstances you will bitch, blame & moan until your last breath & never have even a fleeting moment of contentment.

    You are cursed dude, but the irony is your malcontent over your absurd unmet expectations is what gives you energy.

    The death of the internet will be the death of you or perhaps you’ll make a malcontent sandwich board & stand on a street corner barking out your endless grievances & the evil doers you’ve imagined are responsible.

    https://youtu.be/9EL-lJQ2DHQ

  31. Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 5:13 pm 

    Fred Reed explains why it is insane to take ZOG-USA serious as the dominant force in the 21st centure, as the dead man walking elect wants to have it:

    https://www.unz.com/freed/china-a-cold-shower/

    “China: A Cold Shower“

  32. when u meet kafir strike the neck reliance of the traveller total harvestation of muzz coming soon on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 7:17 pm 

    only master race chinks can show us the way because master race chinks performeed total harvestation of muzz in xinjang

    speaking of which a huge sporting good store all lluke is gone. i’ve never seen anything like this i’m afriad only (((supremetard))) can help us now.

    people who are drunk on muzz milk will soon find out.

  33. no total harvestation of muzz here but keep enjoying that muzz milk Burnley UK: Lancashire Police Covering For The Muslim Who Stabbed 2 Women In The Neck on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 7:21 pm 

    when u meet kafir strike the neck reliance of the traveller

    ‘lo the prophet muhaamad pedifiler took my hand in “marriage” when i was 6 and played with my dolls

    he rubbed his peen on my peen cuz muzz are taught how to conduct everything in life

  34. r u gona declare martial law after grabbing the Luke after vegas whitey supertard president trump i thought the irishman is smarter than that he wants to destroy the consttution in order to rescue the constitution on Wed, 2nd Dec 2020 8:44 pm 

    what about muzz-19 do u invest in companies making muzz-19 which has semen of dropout-19?

    u don’t like mask so u don’t believe in convid-19 so there’s no convict-19

    why do you push muzz-19 and make it mandatory?

    is there any plan for total harvestation of muzz?

  35. supremacist muzzie jerk on Thu, 3rd Dec 2020 12:17 am 

    Since I am a Social Security disability recipient with nothing better to do than post muzzie nonsense. Someone needs to drop a dime on the welfare queen so I learns to stop sucking off the taxpayers for my livelihood.

    What a parasite that needs to be exterminated.

  36. no total harvestation of muzz here but keep enjoying that muzz milk Burnley UK: Lancashire Police Covering For The Muslim Who Stabbed 2 Women In The Neck when u meet kafir strike the neck reliance of the traveller on Thu, 3rd Dec 2020 6:48 am 

    we refer to muzz teaching when total harvestation happens

    master race chinks taught us about muzz and total harvestation in xinjang

  37. On This Day... Dec 03, 2009: Mogadishu, Somalia Religion of Peace bombers target a medical school graduation ceremony: 23 Killed on Thu, 3rd Dec 2020 6:53 am 

    muzz

  38. Burnley UK: Lancashire Police Covering For The Muslim Who Stabbed 2 Women In The Neck lo faithful muzz when u meet kafir strike the neck pedifiler is knowing and merciful reliance of the traveller on Thu, 3rd Dec 2020 7:16 am 

    ‘lo muzz fighting is prescribed for you even though you don’t like it

    only master race chinks taught us about muzz and total harvestation in xinjang

  39. with total muzz harvestation life would be so much more peaceful At least four other Indian states are drafting laws against "love jihad". on Thu, 3rd Dec 2020 9:33 am 

    no inner struggling in master race chinkland

  40. muzz are darlings of the msm consequently people who consume msm info is stuck with a muzz coq full of milk in their mouths on Thu, 3rd Dec 2020 11:03 am 

    only master race chinks can help unfk our situtaion

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