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Renewables to grow far faster than oil sector

Alternative Energy

Renewable energy will account for a far larger share of global supply in 2050 than major oil companies or the International Energy Agency (IEA) expect, Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy said on Thursday.

Its updated models show renewables meeting 74% of total energy demand by 2050, compared to 43%, 45% and 69% in the most aggressive scenarios from energy firms Equinor, Shell and BP.

The IEA expects renewables to account for 35% of the market by 2040.

The renewed commitment to the Paris climate agreement by the United States this year, the growing number of countries with net zero carbon emissions targets for 2050 and renewable technology development have changed the energy landscape, Rystad CEO Jarand Rystad told an online conference on Thursday.

“All previous assessments have to be scrapped and we need to look at it with completely new eyes,” he said.

Rystad Energy sees the sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) rising to 64 million by 2030, compared with oil company scenarios ranging from 22 million to 38 million and an IEA estimate of 30 million.

Rising renewable energy output amid falling costs and increasing efficiency of solar panels and wind turbines, as well as sales of electric vehicles have also hastened predictions for peak demand for oil and gas.

Rystad Energy said last month it expected global oil demand to peak at 101.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, versus a forecast made in November for a peak in 2028 at 102.2 million bpd.

With increasing share of energy being produced by solar and wind power, the global energy trade, dominated by the fossil fuels today, is going to shrink significantly, it predicts.

“We are going to de-globalise the energy market with the new technologies,” Rystad said at Thursday’s conference.

REUTERS



9 Comments on "Renewables to grow far faster than oil sector"

  1. Theedrich on Sat, 8th May 2021 5:05 am 

    “Renewables” are a snare and a delusion. Political promises about perpetual motion machines are a dime a dozen, and obviously produce more benefits for the corporations and individuals that bribe government hierarchs.  But read what Gail Tverberg has to write about them:

    “So-called renewable fuels tend to be very damaging to the environment in ways other than CO2 emissions.  This point is made very well in the new book Bright Green Lies by Derrick Jensen, Lierre Keith and Max Wilbert.  It makes the point that renewable fuels are not an attempt to save the environment.  Instead, they are trying to save our current industrial civilization using approaches that tend to destroy the environment.  Cutting down forests, even if new trees are planted in their place, is especially detrimental.  Alice Friedemann, in her new book, Life after Fossil Fuels:  A Reality Check on Alternative Fuels, points out the high cost of these alternatives and their dependence on fossil fuel energy.”

    The Land of the Freebie and Home of the Knave has reached its “inflection point.”  The days of wine and roses are over.  Only fentanyl-laced narcotics and tenting on the streets of violence-torn Democrat cities is the future.

    And not even importing all the darkies in the world is going to change that fact.

  2. Biden's hairplug on Sat, 8th May 2021 6:25 am 

    Even Theedrich, the smartest American here, is blundering into believing a laywoman bean counter over the combined cerebral fire power of the likes of the German Fraunhofer Institute and a host of other European institutions, overloaded with qualified engineers and scientists, that have zero problems in accepting the fact that a 100% renewable energy future is very well possible.

    For Americans, it is impossible to think out of the box. Make that: out of the oil drum.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/09/16/blueprint-100-renewable-energy-base-for-germany/

    “Blueprint 100% Renewable Energy Base for Germany”

    Cultural thingy.

    /shrug

    P.S. this very American superstition gives us Europeans an enormous geopolitical advantage over Americans, because history has shown that he who masters a new form of energy first, will be the next geopolitical top dog.

    Examples:

    17th century – Holland, windmills
    19th century – Britain, coal and steam
    20th century – America, oil and gas

    https://parisberlinmoscow.wordpress.com/2020/08/25/what-comes-after-the-three-anglo-empires/

    “What Comes After the Three Anglo Empires? ”

    Asking the question is answering it: Eurosphere (EU + Russia + parts of balkanized USA + English-Anglo-Canadian side-show)

  3. Cloggie on Sat, 8th May 2021 6:33 am 

    “Alice Friedemann, in her new book, Life after Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Fuels”

    The Alice Friedman fraud as been thoroughly dealt with here:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/12/28/prejudices-from-amateurs-against-wind-energy/

    “Prejudices From Amateurs Against Wind Energy”

    This guy was chosen American energy thinker of the year 2016, you can’t make this stuff up:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/12/07/mark-p-mills-hack-for-the-fossil-fuel-industry/

    “Mark P. Mills – Hack for the Fossil Fuel Industry”

    Or here the “energy thinker”, Bill Gates admires most, Vaclav Smil:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/02/06/yabut-to-get-wind-power-you-need-oil/

    ““Yabut… To Get Wind Power You Need Fossil Fuel””

    Blunderers, fossil fuel status quo groupies, as far as the eye can see, in the US that is. Certainly on the so-called political right (which in America is equivalent to big business).

  4. DT on Sat, 8th May 2021 9:56 am 

    Cloggie as we speak in the hear and now alt energy schemes have taken exactly ZERO fossil fuel replacement.Humans are still using FF energy inputs that will never cease until extinction.

  5. makati1 on Sat, 8th May 2021 4:40 pm 

    Totally agree Theedrich and DT! The “renewables” fad is just another ploy like the Plandemic, to take more control and make $$$$$$ from the serf’s stupidity.

    Both of the new articles here are propaganda bullshit to sucker in the dreamers like Cloggie and Biden’s. Pure fiction. But trying to educate them into the real world is a waste of time as they don’t want to come. Ignorance is bliss. So be it.

    BTW: I just read an article about Biden’s plan for 30,000 windmills off the US coasts by 2030. Problem is, they will, IN TOTAL, only produce about 75% of the electric used by New York City on a hot summer day. 75% of one city’s electric use. Not going to happen! FFs are here until the end. LOL

  6. makati1 on Sat, 8th May 2021 5:10 pm 

    “While that might sound impressive, it isn’t. It means total wind capacity for the entire Atlantic coast, under Biden’s plan, would only meet three-fourths of the peak summertime electricity needed to power New York City. Again, this assumes the blades are fully spinning 24/7. In reality, such turbines would be lucky to be operating a top capacity half the time. Even less as storms and salt spray corrode the turbines, year after year.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/joe-bidens-offshore-wind-energy-mirage

    “Of course, too little wind isn’t the only issue. Other times, there’s too much wind – as when a hurricane roars up the coast. That’s more likely in the Gulf of Mexico. But the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 had Category 4 winds in Virginia, Category 3 intensity off Cape Hatteras (NC), Long Island and Rhode Island, and Category 2 when it reached Maine. It sank four U.S. Navy and Coast Guard ships.

    When storms or hurricanes hit, turbines can be destroyed. Repairing or replacing hundreds of offshore turbines could take years.”

    Too much reality Cloggie?

  7. Cloggie on Sun, 9th May 2021 2:24 am 

    “Cloggie as we speak in the hear and now alt energy schemes have taken exactly ZERO fossil fuel replacement.Humans are still using FF energy inputs that will never cease until extinction.”

    That’s not an argument against renewable energy. It just shows that most of humanity doesn’t give a f* and grows and grows and grows. And for the moment, mom Earth delivers.

    However, in Europe, things are a little different. The world’s industrial champ Germany for instance, has meanwhile replaced 50% of its electricity supply with renewables. And counting. And acquiring huge chunks of energy markets. Where the Anglo Seven Sisters dominated the energy landscape throughout the 20th century, Europe and China can be expected to do the same in this century, mostly because Americans are missing the boat, so to speak.

    “BTW: I just read an article about Biden’s plan for 30,000 windmills off the US coasts by 2030. Problem is, they will, IN TOTAL, only produce about 75% of the electric used by New York City on a hot summer day. 75% of one city’s electric use. Not going to happen! FFs are here until the end. LOL”

    That Zerohedge article you refer to is written by a Craig Rucker (rukker = wanker in Dutch, but I digress)

    https://www.desmog.com/craig-rucker/

    He is a climate denier and economy firster and conspiracy theorist:

    “CFACT is committed to educating the public and exposing global warming for what it truly is — a massive redistribution scheme. This scheme is not designed to strengthen the U.S. economy, but to throttle it down.”

    It is true that Biden “announced” 30 GW by 2030 and as always, claims that laggard US will somehow “lead”.

    /snikker

    This 30 GW will have to be installed by Europeans, because Americans prefer to sit on their behinds, watching computer screens and see how their stocks are doing. Difficult to distinguish that behavior from frequenting a slot machine parlor.

    The average electricity consumption in NYC is 11 GW. These 30 GW are nameplate. In reality huge wind towers will deliver 50% on average, thus 15 GW continuous, provided storage is in place. You complain about these mills not delivering enough for a hot day. Well, maybe you begin to switch off those airco’s. Americans consume twice the amount of electricity, Europeans do:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita

    So yes, our American friends do have a little bit of a problem here, indeed. How about beginning to save energy? How about dumping SUVs?

    Take the example of the Netherlands, 17 million, 13 GW on average, which is comparable to NYC (20 million, 11 GW). The Netherlands will have all fossil fuel capacity replaced by 2030, mostly by offshore wind, regardless of how much uninformed Americans love to diss renewable energy. That’s not a challenge any more, we have meanwhile sufficient industrial and installer capacity to make that happen and Scandinavians with too much money to finance the scheme. The real challenge is building sufficient storage, but there are hydrogen projects popping up everywhere, with the real big names involved, like Shell and Gasunie. We already have a nationwide fine-grained natural gas network in place that can be reused.

    “When storms or hurricanes hit, turbines can be destroyed. Repairing or replacing hundreds of offshore turbines could take years.””

    We don’t have those problems here. But the US is big enough to place them on land.

    “FFs are here until the end. LOL”

    This is such an utterly stupid, juvenile remark. “We are all going to die, hahahaha, lolololol.”

    You seriously think that anyone cares about complainers about these “ugly wind mill monsters”, if you have no alternative source of energy?

    “BTW: I just read an article about Biden’s plan for 30,000 windmills off the US coasts by 2030.”

    Learn to calculate. 30 GW divided by 30,000 would be 1 MW machines. In reality, big state-of-the-art offshore machines are 15 MW. So, 30 GW can be delivered by merely 2,000 machines, not 30,000. By 2030, this could easily be 20 MW per windmill.

    Blundering, blundering, blundering.

  8. Cloggie on Sun, 9th May 2021 2:50 am 

    Americans should team up with French fishermen in their opposition to wind energy:

    https://www.offshorewind.biz/2021/05/07/france-aeolus-surrounded-by-fishermen-protesting-against-saint-brieuc-owf/

    “France: Aeolus Surrounded by Fishermen Protesting Against Saint-Brieuc OWF”

  9. Cloggie on Sun, 9th May 2021 2:53 am 

    “Enel heralds ‘unstoppable’ US energy transition as renewables spend ramped up”

    https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/enel-heralds-unstoppable-us-energy-transition-as-renewables-spend-ramped-up/2-1-1006934

    The big ones on US renewable energy markets will be Europeans, especially Spanish and Italians.

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