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EIA Forecasts Growth in World Nuclear Electricity Capacity

Alternative Energy
graph of projected nuclear capacity in the IEO2017 reference case, as explained in the article text

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2017 Reference case. Note: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017) projects that global nuclear capacity will grow at an average annual rate of 1.6% from 2016 through 2040, led predominantly by countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). EIA expects China to continue leading world nuclear growth, followed by India. This growth is expected to offset declines in nuclear capacity in the United States, Japan, and countries in Europe.

Electricity demand growth plays a central role in decisions to build new nuclear reactors and retire existing reactors. EIA expects electricity demand growth in China, India, and the Middle East to exceed growth in the United States, Europe, and Japan. EIA’s projected higher electricity demand growth for non-OECD member countries is the result of comparatively higher growth in gross domestic product and population relative to OECD member countries.

China currently has 38 operating nuclear reactors with a total capacity of 33 gigawatts (GW), including 2 GW of new capacity added in 2017 with the completion of the Fuqing-4 and Yangjiang-4 reactors. An additional 19 reactors, with a total capacity of 19.9 gigawatts (GW), are currently under construction, accounting for more than a third of all nuclear projects under construction worldwide. In total, China plans to install 58 GW of new nuclear capacity, which EIA expects to be completed by 2024. By 2032, China is expected to surpass the United States as the country with the most nuclear electricity generating capacity.

India has the world’s second-largest population, behind China, and the highest projected electricity demand growth. India currently has 22 nuclear reactors with a total of 5.3 GW of capacity, and 6 additional reactors with a combined capacity of 3.9 GW are currently under construction. India recently entered into an agreement with Russia to build two more reactors at India’s Kudankulam plant.

The United States currently operates the world’s largest nuclear fleet, with a total capacity of 100 GW from 99 reactors. However, U.S. nuclear capacity is expected to decrease to 88.2 GW by 2040, as several plants have announced intentions to retire before their scheduled license expirations. Two new reactors, Voglte Units 3 and 4, are currently under construction, while construction on V.C. Summer Units 2 and 3 has been suspended.

In Europe, construction of Finland’s 1.6 GW Olkiluoto-3 is nearing completion. The reactor is expected to begin operation in 2018 and will be Europe’s first new nuclear power station in 15 years. However, total nuclear capacity in Europe and Eurasia is expected to decline, as policy decisions to phase out or reduce the nuclear generation share in countries such as Germany and France offset new capacity in non-OECD countries such as Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Romania.

After announcing its intention to phase out all nuclear generation in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan, Germany will have shut down 10 reactors by the end of 2017 and is expected to retire its last reactor in 2022. Earlier this year, France ratified a 2015 law that reduces the share of nuclear generation from 75% to 50% by 2025.

Japan currently has 42 operable reactors with a combined capacity of 39.8 GW. However, only five of these reactors have been restarted following shutdowns in the wake of the Fukushima accident. Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) has given preliminary approval for 9 additional restart applications, with another 12 currently under review. Four reactors have already received final approval from the NRA and are expected to restart in 2018, and the remaining 12 reactors are expected to be retired by 2040.

More information is available in EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2017.


12 Comments on "EIA Forecasts Growth in World Nuclear Electricity Capacity"

  1. makati1 on Thu, 9th Nov 2017 7:41 pm 

    New plants are being built in many countries, not 1st world. They may balance out the ones being decommissioned in the 1st world. We shall see.

  2. Davy on Thu, 9th Nov 2017 7:51 pm 

    “New plants are being built in many countries, not 1st world.”

    got any references mr nuk expert. LOL

  3. MASTERMIND on Thu, 9th Nov 2017 8:27 pm 

    Look its madkat…He has gone off the rails about the jews again..

  4. makati1 on Thu, 9th Nov 2017 8:39 pm 

    MM are you and Davy twins? Or does insanity run in both families? Maybe you memory is just short?

    “Nuclear power capacity worldwide is increasing steadily, with about 50 reactors under construction.
    Most reactors on order or planned are in the Asian region, though there are major plans for new units in Russia.”

    I guess you have no access to Google and prefer to look stupid? LMAO

  5. MASTERMIND on Thu, 9th Nov 2017 9:42 pm 

    Madkat I think you are projecting once again…I site actual scientific reasons for everything I believe…You have no reasons to believe asia will survive…who is the insane one now?

  6. makati1 on Fri, 10th Nov 2017 12:58 am 

    You, MM. You rely on ‘peer approved’ shit. A bunch of over-educated nobodies sitting around agreeing with each other and poo pooing anyone not “in the club”. Over-educated eunuchs.

    I rely on my open mind, sight and hearing. Common sense added to rational thought and experience. MY experience. I live here. Do you? I see what is possible here and what is not. Do you? No, you read others opinions and then decide on some middle ground that confirms your previous decision.

    My decisions evolve day to day from what is happening around me. Not from someone 8,000 miles away whose closest touch to Asia is the junk he buys from here. I have not changed my mind about Asia in the 10 years I have actually lived here. No peer review needed.

  7. Davy on Fri, 10th Nov 2017 5:16 am 

    mad kat you are a disgrace to the truth and daily you pollute this board with intellectually fraudulent points. You are pushing a personal agenda that is warped and sick. You are just a lonely old man looking for attention. You talk about having your hand on the heartbeat of Asia as you live in the westernized part of Manila never venturing out very far. SAD

  8. Dredd on Fri, 10th Nov 2017 9:13 am 

    “EIA Forecasts Growth …”

    Meanwhile, our brains are physically changing, some growing enough to increase cranium size caused by the culture we are living in (Hypothesis: The Cultural Amygdala – 5).

  9. dave thompson on Fri, 10th Nov 2017 1:01 pm 

    One thing for sure here in the US if new nukes do not come on line soon that above chart will look a lot different in the not to distant future. Most nukes in the US are over 30 years old. I do not think there is more then one or two in the works currently.

  10. Antius on Fri, 10th Nov 2017 2:04 pm 

    First world countries are fat and complacent. Energy policy is all about silly intellectual fads. These country’s have run their nuclear industries into the ground with pointless and burdensome regulatory regimes. With fossil fuel energy suffering from declining EROI, these nations will soon sit down to a banquet of consequences.

  11. Apneaman on Fri, 10th Nov 2017 2:23 pm 

    Like most of the shit in most of these articles this is a long way from happening…..

    Advanced Nuclear Finds a More Welcome Home in Canada

    An early regulatory review may put Terrestrial Energy on track to commission the first fourth-generation reactor in North America.

    “Canadian regulators announced that Terrestrial Energy has completed the initial phase of a design review for its molten-salt nuclear power plant, giving the Ontario-based company a small early lead in the race to commission the first commercial fourth-generation reactor in North America.

    To be sure, it’s a very early step in what will be a long regulatory process, the first of three phases in just the “pre-licensing” review. All the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission has really said is that the company has demonstrated it intends to comply with regulatory requirements, while noting that the company has a lot more to do to prove that its conceptual designs will operate safely in the real world.”

  12. Shortend on Fri, 10th Nov 2017 6:06 pm 

    Sure…that is the “Party” mantra …growth..
    Until the lights go out…

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