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What Oil Shortage? Just a Case of Supply Being Redistributed

Last April, Iran exported about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day (mbpd) before President Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Tehran. Sanctions were then placed on Iran, but following great opposition from Iran's key customers, namely China and India, the U.S. granted "waivers" to allow some exports of Iranian crude. By this March, Iranian exports had already fallen to about 1 mbpd. The deadline for the waivers was May, 2018. This morning -- April 22 -- the U.S. declared it would not grant an extension of those waivers. If the U.S. forges ahead and China and India both comply, it could potentially take about 700,000 to 1 million bpd of oil out of the market! Brent Oil rose nearly $2.5/bbl. Monday morning on this news, with world markets rattled on the risk of an oil shortage given importance of ...

End of the World? thumbnail

End of the World?

Claims ring saying that human-caused climate change will soon make the Earth unlivable, but other similar claims have been made in the recent past that have turned out to be false. The photo at right, from AP, shows a 1970 Earth Day event in Philadelphia.   “Millennials and people and you know Gen Z and all these folks that come after us are looking up, and we’re like, ‘The world is going to end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change, and your biggest issue is — your biggest issue is how are we gonna pay for it?’” This rhetorical — some would say hysterical — question was posed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) during an interview at a January 21 event in New York City honoring Martin Luther King, Jr. Taking her at her word, the 29-year-old lawmaker really believes ...


Peak Oil, Abiotic Oil & EROEI: Real(ish)

Guest Seinfeld routine by David Middleton The plots of the Seinfeld TV show often revolved around trivializing important things and blowing trivial things out of proportion. While not a Seinfeld fanatic (I’m more of a Frasier fanatic), I thought the comedy routines were generally brilliant and quite effective. Peak Oil, abiotic oil and EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) are largely academic concepts. They are the subject of books, academic publications and Internet “debates” The “debates” about Peak Oil, abiotic oil and EROEI are a lot like the Seinfeld show. They magnify the trivial and trivialize things that actually matter. The “debates” often divide into two camps: It’s the end of the world (Peak Oil, EROEI). It’s our salvation from the end of the world (Abiotic oil). While all three of these energy-related topics are, at least to some extent, real, none of ...

Public Policy

How To Bury the Fossil Fuel Industry

Keen eyes browsing through the Green New Deal resolution introduced by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) in February might have noticed a concerning similarity between that document and the Paris climate agreement: Neither mentions fossil fuels. To be clear, the Green New Deal is probably the best shot we have at planetary survival. Its sweeping call to get to net-zero emissions (or as close as possible) by 2030 while raising Americans’ standard of living is wildly ambitious, smart politics and firmly in line with the scientific consensus on global warming. But February’s resolution, essentially a statement of principles, couldn’t be expected to include every last detail of what is needed. Indeed, avoiding certain contentious fights for now—like those over negative emissions technologies, nuclear energy and carbon taxes—may be a shrewd move on Ocasio-Cortez and Markey’s part. But ...

Iran denounces ‘illegal’ US sanctions as oil waivers end thumbnail

Iran denounces ‘illegal’ US sanctions as oil waivers end

Iran denounced US sanctions on its oil sector as "illegal" on Monday after the United States announced it will no longer grant sanctions exemptions to Iran's oil customers. "Since the sanctions in question are principally illegal, the Islamic Republic of Iran did not and does not attach any value or credibility to the waivers given to the sanctions," the Iranian foreign ministry said in a statement issued on its official website. The US on Monday told five countries - Japan, South Korea, Turkey, China and India - that they will no longer be exempt from US sanctions if they continue to import oil from Iran after their waivers end on May 2. Tehran remained defiant over Washington's decision, saying it was prepared for the end of waivers, while the Revolutionary Guards repeated their threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipment channel in the Gulf, Reuters ...

Public Policy

Kuntler: An Empire of Bullshit

After two years of gaslighting the public while it blew smoke up America’s ass, the Jacobin news media enjoyed its final feeding frenzy with the release of the 400-page Mueller report. They expected 1000 pounds of raw filet mignon, but it turned out to be tofu fried in olestra. The ensuing fugue of hyperventilating hysteria was also duly expected and William Barr stoically endured their hebephrenic peevings at the release ceremony — a press conference which itself offended the media. The threats and raving continued all the livelong day and far into the peeper-filled night with CNN’s Chris Cuomo blustering “It’s time to rumble,” and the lugubrious hack David Gergen muttering soulfully, “This was not fake news,” and The Times’ Maggie Haberman fuming that the White House had played the “Nazi anthem” Edelweiss — very fake news, it turned out, since ...


Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil field is fading faster than anyone guessed

It was a state secret and the source of a kingdom’s riches. It was so important that US military planners once debated how to seize it by force. For oil traders, it was a source of endless speculation. Now the market finally knows: in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest conventional oil field, can produce a lot less than almost anyone believed. When on Monday published its first ever profit figures since its nationalization nearly 40 years ago, it also lifted the veil of secrecy around its The company’s bond prospectus revealed that is able to pump a maximum of 3.8 million barrels a day — well below the more than 5 million that had become conventional wisdom in the market. “As Saudi’s largest field, a surprisingly low production capacity figure from is the stand-out of the report,” said Virendra Chauhan, head of upstream ...


The Firm Floor Under Oil Prices

The continued slowdown of US shale production and the looming deadline for Iran sanctions waivers have put a floor under oil prices this week Friday, April 19, 2019 Oil held steady at the close of the week, with a slowdown in U.S. shale and the looming deadline for a decision on Iran sanctions waivers putting a floor under oil prices. Schlumberger sees shale slowdown. Schlumberger said its earnings were hit in the first quarter by the drilling slowdown in the Permian, while market conditions globally continue to improve. Schlumberger sees “higher investments in the international markets simply to keep production flat, while North America land activity is set for lower investments with a likely downward adjustment to the current production growth outlook,” according to CEO Paal Kibsgaard. “the higher cost of capital, lower borrowing capacity and investors looking for increased returns suggest that ...


Exxon Mobil makes new oil discovery offshore Guyana

Exxon Mobil Corp said on Thursday the U.S. oil major along with its partners have made an oil discovery offshore Guyana, which adds to the previously estimated 5.5 billion barrels of oil-equivalent. The discovery was in the Turbot area of Stabroek Block, which is expected to become a major development hub, Exxon said. This is the thirteenth discovery on the block, which is part of one of the biggest oil discoveries in the world in the last decade. Hess Corp and China National Offshore Oil Corporation are part of the consortium. Reuters

Public Policy

Fragility In The World 2019

Yemen is labelled as the most fragile country by Fragile States Index in 2019. Finland is now the least fragile country. Source: (Highlights from Fragile States Index) “This year, Yemen claimed the top position for the first time as a result of its civil war and humanitarian catastrophe. Although Yemen’s top ranking may provide cause for idle chatter, really the most attention should be given to its rapid worsening over the past decade, and the regional instability and power plays for which its population are unspeakably suffering. In 2019, an African nation has, for the first time, ranked in the “Very Stable” category, with Mauritius ascending to join the likes of the United Kingdom and United States. Just as Mauritius this year became the first African country to break through to the Very Stable category, it is also important to recognize that Singapore became ...

Enviroment 7 things we’ve learned about Earth since the last Earth Day
This year’s Earth Day, April 22, will arrive at a sobering moment in human ...
Production Iran Peddling 1MM Barrels of Oil Again
An Iranian exchange has offered investors as much as 6 million barrels of oil ...
In The Permian Basin, Natural Gas ‘Flaring’ Persists, With No Solution In Sight thumbnail In The Permian Basin, Natural Gas ‘Flaring’ Persists, With No Solution In Sight
The axiom, bigger is better may not apply to everything in Texas. For one ...
Population IS a Problem thumbnail Population IS a Problem
And it warrants greater attention, not less. This roundtable discussion with the staff ...

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PO Real Time

Brent Crude approaching $75. Are Fundamentals driving market enthusiasm and oil prices towards the anticipated OPEC $80 threshold for an increase in supply? Will the market regulate its reaction to sporadic high impact media releases? #oott #brentcrude #opec #peakoil #oil