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Why the IEA is Wrong About Peak Oil Demand

The IEA predicts peak oil demand in 2028 due to the shift towards cleaner energy technologies. OPEC disagrees, forecasting rising oil demand driven by increasing energy needs in emerging economies. Two key factors often overlooked in oil demand forecasts are the growth of the middle class in emerging economies and the energy demand for artificial intelligence. It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against ...

Did we inadvertently speed global warming?

A paper published late last year by climate scientists James Hansen and colleagues claims that the rate of global warming is poised to increase by 50% in the coming decades. Disclaimer: James Hansen has a bit of a checkered reputation within the climate community. There is a faction that discounts much of what he says. However, he has some stellar credentials and at one time was a leading voice on greenhouse gas emissions. Here’s what I know. Climate science is not always correct. Over the course of human history many outspoken scientists with contrary views have been labeled as quacks. Galileo may be the most famous. The question becomes: is James Hansen’s somewhat contrary view correct? You need to judge for yourself. As for me, I’m no scientist so I’m guided by logic and rationale arguments. Back to the research. Hansen’s view is that an ...

Venezuela’s Oil Monopoly Eases

Venezuela is allowing a small startup to import fuels even as the country struggles to feed its owns refineries and the recent reimposition of US sanctions presses on its industry. The country’s oil minister granted Eway, founded in 2022 to cater to the private aviation industry, a permit in March to import low and ultra-low sulfur diesel and gasoline from its storage facility in Colombia, Eway’s executive president Luis Leon said in an interview with Bloomberg. The company is in talks with authorities on settling the sale price before bringing the fuel into the country, he added. The move signals Venezuela’s willingness to open its monopoly on fuels given its state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., has faced a decade-long struggle over the supply of diesel due to the mishaps of a deteriorated refining system. Eway says its strategy is to focus ...

Why Germany is Choosing Natural Gas Over Nuclear Power

Germany's anti-nuclear stance is based on historical factors rather than current geopolitical realities. Germany's decision to phase out nuclear energy has led to concerns about energy security and higher energy prices. Despite public regret over the nuclear shutdown, Germany's unique energy transition path faces challenges due to the slow and costly nature of new nuclear plant development. The world is experiencing a nuclear renaissance. Uranium prices are soaring as the world snaps up nuclear fuel, public favor for nuclear power is at a 10-year high in the United States, Russia is busily expanding its own nuclear energy empire in emerging economies in Africa, and even Japan is moving back to the carbon-free energy source 13 years after the Fukushima nuclear disaster. All told, approximately 60 new nuclear reactors are currently under construction around the globe, and another 110 are in planning stages. But there’s one ...

U.S. coal-fired electricity generation decreased in 2022 and 2023

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor Note: The chart series reflects the average electricity generation from coal for a given hour across one year; the data are reported in 24-hour increments for the U.S. Lower 48 states, based on local time. Electricity generation from units that primarily consume coal in the U.S. Lower 48 states decreased for all hours of the day by about 23% between 2021 and 2023, according to our Form EIA-930, Hourly and Daily Balancing Authority Operations Report. Most of the decline occurred between 2022 and 2023, when coal-fired generation fell 19% and the average natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub decreased by more than 60%. Several factors have accounted for reductions in coal-fired generation since 2021: Coal capacity has decreased because operators have retired about 37 gigawatts, or 17% of the coal-fired ...

Is It Time To Abandon the Idea of Phasing Out Oil and Gas?

Despite feigning interest, Big Oil still appears to oppose the global green transition and could well stand in its way. As Saudi’s state oil company leader condemns the green transition and calls for long-term oil production, other major industry players are voicing their scepticism around renewable energy and clean tech. Despite large investments into green energy and carbon-cutting projects from several oil and gas majors, Big Oil still appears to be heavily favouring fossil fuel production. This month, the CEO of Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco, Amin Nasser, said that the energy transition was failing and called for policymakers to abandon the “fantasy” of phasing out oil and gas, with the demand for fossil fuels expected to continue growing in the coming years. During a panel interview at the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston, Nasser stated, “In the ...

More than 20% of global refining capacity at risk of closure

Recent analysis by Wood Mackenzie finds that, based on forecasted 2030 net cash margins, 121 out of 465 screened refineries are at some risk of closure. This represents a cumulative 20.2 million b/d of refining capacity, or 21.6% of global 2023 capacity. The future viability of refinery facilities will be dependent on a combination of factors. First, refining margins will start to weaken by the end of the decade as fossil fuel demand declines. In OECD countries, transport fuel demand will start to fall from 2025, while the unwinding of free allowances for carbon emissions will also impact European net cash margins from 2030 onwards. China will see liquid demand peak by 2027 and start to fall as the country actively electrifies its road transport. Non-OECD countries will enjoy continued demand growth beyond 2030, but their refiners will not be immune as global ...

Charles Hugh Smith Blog: Fire, Then Ice Our Deflationary Future

Lest you weep for those whose phantom wealth will be drained away, recall that few win when a reserve currency dies. Labor can start earning the day after the reset, but the capital lost is gone for good. Outside the "everything's always fine" echo-chamber, the consensus is that easily created fiat currencies will all evaporate as the temptation to continue printing/borrowing money into existence is irresistible: the only way to keep the system from imploding is to devalue the soaring debt and interest payments with inflation, and the dial controlling inflation is money-printing / central banks buying debt and all the related tricks. The problem is that once the dial is turned to 11, inflationary expectations start feeding back into real-world inflation and inflation then escapes the control of central bankers and government treasuries: creating more money to devalue the currency and service the ...

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser says energy transition strategy ‘visibly failing’

Pointing to the still paltry share of renewable energy in global supply, the head of Saudi Aramco described the current energy transition strategy as a misguided failure on Monday. “In the real world, the current transition strategy is visibly failing on most fronts,” Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said at the CERAWeek conference in Houston. Fossil fuels accounted for 82 percent of global consumption last year, according to a report from consultancy KPMG cited by Nasser, who noted that the International Energy Agency has said oil demand could hit a record this year. “This is hardly the future picture some have been painting,” Nasser said. “All this strengthens the view that peak oil and gas is unlikely for some time to come, let alone 2030,” added Nasser, alluding to a medium-term target that has been seen as a potential phaseout date for crude. Joining ...

100 million-degree ‘artificial sun’ sets new records in hunt for energy’s ‘Holy Grail’

Scientists in Korea have sustained plasma at temperatures seven times hotter than the sun for longer than ever before after upgrading a key component, an advance that could provide invaluable data for an international fusion mega-project planned to launch next year. The Korean 'artificial sun', known as KSTAR, sustained the plasma at temperatures of 100 million°C – nearly seven times hotter than the core of our own star – for 48 seconds during recent testing. KSTAR, the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research to use its full name, set its previous record in 2022 when it sustained that temperature for 30 seconds. In its recent testing, conducted between December and February, KSTAR also broke its record for achieving high confinement mode or ‘H-mode’, a plasma state that is stable and better confined than low confinement mode, maintaining this for 102 seconds. Fusion uses the same ...

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