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This is a lecture on the consequences of exponential growth with regard to hydrocarbon use and population. A virtuoso performance. I have returned to the pessimistic camp.

Dieoff.

Lousy network connection keeps timing out even with my highspeed cable
What am I missing. Is it similar to this doco I watched recently

Arithmetic, Population & Energy (Environmental Damage, Energy Crisis) (Dr. Albert A. Bartlett lecture) (1994) (V).avi

The Hubbert's Peak page has a good section on him and his papers

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/bartlett/
  
"Over the years, few people have contributed as much to physics education as Albert Bartlett [Professor Emeritus, Physics Department, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO]. Readers of The Physics Teacher regularly use snippets from his "et cetera..." column in their classes, and his celebrated lecture on exponential growth has fascinated well over 1000 audiences.

Yes, this is the same lecture Arithmetic, Population & Energy by Albert Bartlett. I was able to watch the whole thing although the picture quality got worse as time went on. Very good explanation of exponential growth with the math to go with it.

MQ

Very good stuff! should be part of the "PO for dummies" kit.

I'll add it to the PO primer, I'll have to take your word for it at the moment, I can't see the video myself, getting network probs every time I try

This was very interesting. Lots to think about.

Still can't see it

If anyone finds another source for the video, plese post it.

Informative. Any seasoned reader of peak oil is aware of these issues, but this video puts it in a plain, easy to understand fashion and has a great job of calling out economists/optimistis who distort and flat out lie about data.

The most important idea I got out of it was the idea of the geometric progression on the upside of the equation balanced by the geometric progression on the downside of the equation.

So, if we saw a 7% (doubling every ten years) on the upside, we'll see a 50% decline every ten years on the downside (halving every ten years).

I can't see how we could see a soft landing in light of this information. There's really no "landing" to be had. It'll just be a continual collapse for a hundred years back to pre-petroleum times.

I'm 33 now. Assuming PO in 2004, and assuming I live to 63, I'll see petroleum production halve three times in my lifetime. My nephew will see it halve six times. From that point forward, it probably won't make all that much difference.

Assuming we're at 100% maximum petroleum production now, we'll see one half of this production n 2014. What does that do to gas prices? Up by a factor of ten or so? Who knows. Maybe. $20/gal for gas? In another ten years, it could be up another factor of ten for $200/gal for gas. My 30 mile one-way trip to work could cost me $200. I think it would be cheaper to ride a horse to work. One more geometrical progression at a factor of ten would make it $2,000 for a single gallon of gasoline, and I can scrap any gasoline powered transportation. Even a 100MPG transportation solution would cost $20/mile. How could that be feasible? Three more geometrical progressions make $200,000 for a single gallon of gas. That's what my nephew is looking forward to in his retirement years.

I got it from the www.democraticunderground.com forum. They have a peak oil group there. I usually get my news on the subject for here or energybulletin.net, but once in a great while I check in there. THere isn't as much activity there as there is here, but they do talk.

There's a couple good threads at www.fourthturning.com as well, but if PO is the 4T, then I don't think it matters much about which generation we're at and how the Gray Warriors react to it.

I'm a GenX'er according to their literature, but I don't feel very apathetic these days. I'm very much into action.

For those of you who know how to get this :
Arithmetic,.Population.&.Energy.(Environmental.Damage,.Energy.Crisis).(Dr..Albert.A..Bartlett.lecture).(1994).avi

Also, see link :
http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/symposi ... tlett.html

The 400 mb avi version is still being seeded at http://conspiracy.hopto.org:6969

You just have to be able to download torrent files be a member

There's also a 50mb Daniel Goodstein lecture from October going strong
out_of_gas_daniel_goodstein_presentation.zip

Maybe this lecture from Campell himself could be interesting as well?

http://video.tu-clausthal.de/vortraege/peak-oil/

A lecture held 2000 in Germany - just some basics...

Have a nice day,

Joe

Funny you should say that. There's a very select group that will benefit from my research, and I limit the number of people that will learn what I know for very selfish reasons. It's my family, my girlfriend, and my immediate friends.

I'm not reaching out beyond that group.

I think the Crisis is PO, and it's not really a generational thing. It's a physical resource thing. Very different matter from 4T things.

I just watched the Dr. Albert A. Bartlett lecture, fantastic!!! Thanks for the link.