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Will OPEC’s Geo-Political Crackup Put Russo/Iranian Alliance into Global Oil Driver’s Seat?

Public Policy

The lightning-fast econo/political changes impacting the world’s oil alliances have critically undermined the solidarity of OPEC, while strengthening the new Russo/Chinese/Iranian block against the U.S./Canada/Mexico (NAFTA Alliance) and a weakening Saudi Arabia.

While the Saudis and Russia still represent the world’s only potential exporters of near 10 million barrels of oil per day, most OPEC members are in varying stages of disarray, preventing their adequate supply of the world’s oil needs. In fact, the runnerup OPEC suppliers, counted on to deliver one-third of the world’s energy requirements are on the verge of internal collapse.

Iraq, which had recently solidified its oil supply capacity is now coming under the weight of Islamic Extremists, while Iran has cast its lot with Russia/China, whose security council vetoes is protecting them from further UN sanctions; while committing Russia is to building commercial nuclear plant operations for Iranians. Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela, which produce a significant amount of OPEC’s 30 million daily export barrels, are also experiencing various degrees of political disintegration.

This puts the world’s oil supply requirements squarely on the back of NAFTA (U.S., Canada, Mexico) and the Saudi Arabian peninsula, with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates a weak reed to lean on for future certainty. While the U.S. and Canada are on their way to oil production supremacy, because of America’s shale fracking potential, Washington D.C.’s political standoff must remove its 40-year old oil export bans. This is of questionable uncertainty, based on the Obama Administration’s climatological purity block continuing its obstinacy record.

While a recovering and expanding world economy is requiring supplies beyond the current 90-million barrels per day, the availability factor is being sabotaged by further increasing internal geo-political breakdowns, threatening to get worse, not better. That is a major reason why oil prices, heading into mid-summer, are rising faster than expected.

While Europe is increasingly at the mercy of Russia’s pipelines, its strong support in cutting itself off from Iran by adherence to anti-Tehran sanctions, forces its dependence on U.S./Canada combined more than ever.

The record of the current U.S. administration in reacting to these needs as urgently as possible, would indicate that such assistance, even in the long term, would be a dubious support base to bet on.

The Dessert Sun

3 Comments on "Will OPEC’s Geo-Political Crackup Put Russo/Iranian Alliance into Global Oil Driver’s Seat?"

  1. Makati1 on Sat, 21st Jun 2014 9:53 pm 

    More US “exceptionalism” in a big bag of BS!

    The West is in the fix it designed for itself over the last few decades, and deserves the future it will experience. Destroying the longtime stability in the ME and driving the Eurasian bloc tighter together will be the final nail.

    World domination by the elite of the West is now impossible. World war is possible as their last ditch attempt, but it will leave nothing but radioactive ruins and a destroyed world, impossible to live in. But then, the ones creating this mess are all over 60 and most are over 80. They will not have to live in the world they make. It is all greed for power and wealth. Nothing more. Or so it seems to me.

  2. Theedrich Yeat on Sun, 22nd Jun 2014 3:18 am 

    For over a century the U.S. has been led my megalomaniacs who fantasize that they can bring “democracy” to the world by raping for virginity.

    2015-16 is the probable window for global Peak Oil. And of course the insane trajectory of the national debt (toward $24 trillion in 2024) is going to drive us off the cliff in any case. But let us face it:  it is what the people want, as demonstrated by their electoral actions.

  3. Sudhir Jatar on Mon, 23rd Jun 2014 10:50 am 

    There are clear cut two blocks: Russia, China and Iran on one side and the rest comprising of the US and Western Europe. Countries like India, Pakistan or in south east Asia do not count.
    The US is well aware that Shale petroleum is not going to see them through. Hence, geopolitics has become extremely complex. On one side, the US is supposed to be self-reliant on shale production knowing fully well that it is a sham, on the other; it still has to woo Central Asia, especially Saudi Arabia.

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