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Page added on April 27, 2015
Will Iran Attempt To Seize Control Of Saudi Oilfields?
IN 1976 an investment banker turned adventure novelist, Paul Erdman, penned a best-selling thriller, The Crash of ’79. Center to the plot was the Shah of Iran making a grab for the oilfields of the Arab Middle East, with a well-armed military, thanks to rising oil prices. Of course, barely 24 months later the Shah was ousted by radical Islamists, who subsequently bled the country white in a bloody and futile eight-year war with Iraq. Oil prices crashed after Ronald Reagan took office, and all thoughts of an Iranian version of a Nazi blitzkrieg disappeared.
Well, if Erdman were still alive (he died in 2007), he could write a very plausible updated version of his novel, with—very frighteningly—the all too likely possibility that this time fiction would turn into fact.
Iran doesn’t possess a passel of Panzer divisions and have a murderous Luftwaffe at its disposal. But it now has the means to make a play for control of the immense oilfields of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and, all too obviously, Iraq, where its proxy militias are gaining strength. Militias under Iranian control can achieve Teheran’s imperial goals almost as well as WWII-style armed forces.
In the updated Erdman novel a prominent role would go to Russia’s strongman,Vladimir Putin, whose economy has been devastated by sanctions and low oil prices. Putin would ally himself closely with the murderous mullahs of Teheran, since both have a desperate desire for more expensive petroleum.
Oh, wait. In the real world didn’t Putin announce that even though sanctions against Iran are still in force Russia would sell the blood-soaked clerics a very sophisticated air-defense missile system, thereby making an Israeli strike against Iran’s burgeoning nuclear weapons program even more problematical?
Look at the map of Saudi Arabia, keeping in mind that the majority of Muslims there are Sunni and the minority, Shiite. To the south is Yemen. Readers will remember Yemen as the country that President Obama proclaimed a success story against terrorist forces not so many months ago. Oops! Pro-Iranian terrorist militias are now ascendent in Yeman, with ISIS-like forces also enjoying a strong presence there. The freaked-out Saudis are conducting air strikes in Yemen to try to stem this adverse tide.
To the Saudi north lies Iraq, where Iran is exercising more and more control. Adding to Saudi anxieties is the fact that most of its oil assets are in an area of the kingdom in which Shiites are the distinct majority. Iran’s Shiite mullahs figure this is territory ripe for Iranian suzerainty and feel they have nothing to fear from Saudi ground forces.
It doesn’t take a great military theorist to see that Iran is applying a pincer movement against Saudi Arabia. While the world focuses on U.S./Iran nuclear negotiations, the mullahs–and Putin–have their eyes on more immediate and immensely more juicy prey. They believe, despite the deployment of U.S. Navy vessels leading Iran to turn back an Iranian naval convoy last week, that Obama will do nothing effective.
Which leads to the question: What will Israel be forced to do to secure itself–and the civilized world?
32 Comments on "Will Iran Attempt To Seize Control Of Saudi Oilfields?"
Plantagenet on Mon, 27th Apr 2015 9:38 pm
I don’t think Iran will invade Saudi any time soon. They’ll wait a few years until they get nuclear weapons and invade Saudi then
Davy on Mon, 27th Apr 2015 10:32 pm
I hate that there are so many Forbes articles on PO. I hate distortion of the truth on all sides. These folks are clearly propagandist of the worst kind. Forbes are part of the reason the world coined the phrase “ugly American”.
Let’s review the U.S. Invasion of Iraq and remember how easy that was “sarc”. Even trying to hold KSA oil fields will be problematic because of logistics. In any case it is more likely the two will destroy each other’s infrastructure than any kind of invasion. The ME people are good at destroying not so good at holding terrain.
Nony on Mon, 27th Apr 2015 10:51 pm
Davy: these are not the articles bothering you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=532j-186xEQ
Makati1 on Mon, 27th Apr 2015 10:56 pm
I’m glad Israel was NOT included in the ‘civilized world’ mentioned in the last sentence. But then, most of the West is not included either. Civilized countries do not invade other sovereign countries or try to overthrow their elected governments. Diplomacy is the weapon of civilized countries, not drones and Hellfire missiles.
As for Forbes, I no longer read any article that is from the Us MSM propaganda ministry. I skip to the end if I even suspect the source and I check out the name if I am not familiar with it. Who owns it and/ or who ‘donates’ to it? Spin is reaching typhoon levels in the UFSA.
BobInget on Mon, 27th Apr 2015 10:57 pm
As Saudi Arabia disintegrates into chaos,
street fighting between al Qaeda, IS, Saudi Army loyalists, dissidents, free lance fighters, IOW’s a clusterfuck of opportunists.
American “coalition forces” are forced to invade KSA in 2016 to ‘protect’ vital oil supplies. Costs of this invasion and occupation bankrupts the US forcing a presidential resignation and Military take-over.
Elections are cancelled. The nation is being run by the then Speaker of the House and Joint Chiefs.
In order to protect US Northern Borders,
a decision is made to force Canada to cede
the provinces of Alberta and British Columbia to the US or face invasion.
Other then that, I don’t believe Yemen is of importance.
H. Neumann on Mon, 27th Apr 2015 10:59 pm
Davy, what will be worse, invasion or destroying each other’s infrastructure ? Both will be bad for oil exports
meld on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 1:42 am
someone is trying to raise oil prices penning bullshit like this. Iran’s “Imperial goals” ? seriously WTF?
peakyeast on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 4:34 am
I find it far more likely that the US would try to control Saudi Oil and Iraqi oil and Iranian oil… …
But i suppose that doesnt make a good story.
Davy on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 5:45 am
Makster said “Civilized countries do not invade other sovereign countries or try to overthrow their elected governments.” True, Makster, but, is it ok if it is internal killings or genocide like we saw and or are seeing in China, Russia, Cambodia, Japan, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, North Korea, and Vietnam. The worst genocide other than what we saw in WWII Germany was Asian. In the P’s you are doing the killings in the south with the Muslims. There are few regions or countries with civilized people. Costa Rica comes to mind. There are some others but very few in your Asia, Makster.
Modern man with his knowledge of good and evil lives on a knife edge of both. This is especially true in areas of large populations where powerful regimes can form. I personally think if humans survive the likely bottleneck ahead our true civilization will return through a default return to small community, tribe, and family. It is there as semi-nomadic hunter gathers with light population pressures we find our true evolutionary human nature.
The BAUtopian definition of civilization is anything but that. It is a farce of exploitation of the ecosystem, our fellow man, and ourselves in an unholy technological mechanization of progress. There is a civilization found in the spirit through humility and acceptance of a higher power but not within our so called manifest destiny and exceptionalism. This is only dualistic pride and hubris that comes with separateness from our ecosystem and our human family.
Davy on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 5:54 am
Bobby, I think you are wrong on your geopolitical predictions of the disintegration of the ME. Your scenario likely leads to immediate financial and energy collapse from liquid fuel scarcity and food insecurity in all regions. You can’t decouple regions from the global mother that supports all regions and locals.
The ME is the most venerable region because of harsh climate, over population, over consumption, and conflict. Since the ME is the primary source of BAU’s foundational commodity oil, any disintegration will deny BAU adequate oil supplies tearing the global fabric including food distribution. All ME countries are food insecure or very close to it.
This will be the end game of a crisis to what is difficult to predict. It will depend on if a stability returns and cooperation results from dangerous global social descent. It may just be the end game of quick rebalance of population and consumption that must come quickly or gradually. There is no avoiding this rebalance but it is unclear what the trigger will be because there are so many and so many near tipping point.
Davy on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 6:06 am
H, both invasion and or oil infrastructure destruction are the end game of an immediate collapse. It is the equivalent to MAD in the NUK war world. It is too difficult to predict to what point a conflict could escalate to but knowing the animosities and fanaticism of the ME between Shia and Sunni it is likely a KSA and Iranian conflict will escalate to the highest level. Basically religious civil wars are about the destruction of the other side for ideological regions and rarely the pillage of the others riches or territory.
This will likely involve the US and others making any conflict much more destructive because of military overkill potential. The US can destroy much of Iran’s infrastructure. The US losses will be high especially its vulnerable navy. The scenario is dangerously close with the many proxy wars and failing states in the region. These situation tend to destabilize to the point of total war within a region because all the ingredients are present for escalation. All that is needed for total way is one bad decision or the wrong calculated response. IOW a match on gasoline.
penury on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 8:58 am
Another propaganda piece attempting to show that U.S. must take steps to assure that nasty Iran does not control the ME that is our oil and we will fight anyone who tries to control any thing of ours.
Newfie on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 10:23 am
One Israeli nuke on Tehran and the mullahs will end up like Hitler did. Burned to blackened crisps in the ruins of their Islamic “Third Reich”.
Makati1 on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 10:36 am
Davy, how much of those internal problems are generated by the US? If truth be known, most are.
That is true in the Ps in Mindanao. The uS has ~600 troops there … oh that’s right, they are called ‘advisers’. Funny how the Ps government gets close to an agreement and then the Us shows up and the killings begin all over again.
The Us wants to use the Ps as another Iraq only this time with China. They are trying to get bases here again, even though the people don’t want them back on Ps soil. Take the war to the 48 states instead.
joe on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 11:05 am
Always imagined a rising of some kind by the shiites in Saudi. Plausible tale but unlikely. The us would invade as would most of the world. Only in America’s dreams would iran support a shiite rising in East Saudi.
Davy on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 11:52 am
Sure, Mak, Americans are always meddling somewhere globally but how many of those Asian problems are and were Asian? You act like the Americans are super humans bent on evil and responsible for all evil. A few thousand super humans controlling 4.3BIL people. In reality Asians are proud people that have little interest in meddling.
Mak, in the P’s are your people grownups? Can they make decisions on their own as educated adults or still jungle savages the Americans have to coddle? That is what you are implying. Yet, you crow constantly how educated, independent and free the P’s are then you say the Americans are forcing 100MIL Pilipinos into a war with 600 soldiers. Cat piss.
CAM on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 12:03 pm
I guess that no one knows that it was Iraq, with US backing that invaded Iran!
penury on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 1:40 pm
People have short memories, ask Rumsfeld about supplying his good buddy Saddam with gas for use against the Iranians.
paulo1 on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 1:53 pm
BobInget,
I have lots of ammo in case Canada gets invaded. LOL . I will ensure I take a lot out with me.
But if Harper gets in again this fall he’ll just bend over and sign whatever trade agreement US offers…invasion not necessary.
I’m more worried about your country meddling with cash and private holdings than taking over the world.
Are ‘they’ flying drones over Baltimore, yet?
Nony on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 1:55 pm
Everyone knew that Saddam was a bad guy back then. It was clearly balance of power diplomacy.
zoidberg on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 4:07 pm
Pure fear mongering propaganda. The Israelis are in dire danger of being abandoned by all major powers and need a big war to attach their interests too. Pay no mind.
Tom on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 6:24 pm
If I remember correctly, it was the Saudis that threw out the American military immediately prior to the start of G.W. Bush’s and Dick Cheney’s Iraq war and then began large scale trade with China, something that they had not done before.
It’s my guess that the Saudis did not trust having large numbers of American troops on their soil when it was our agenda, per General Wesley Clark (later revaled), to overthrow one after another of the oil blessed Middle East nations? The Saudis should worry about the Iranians when American naval power stands between them and the Iranians? I think they should worry about the Americans when the Iranians have been humbled.
It’s all a big mumble jumble with all actors trying to stay on top when the SHTF.
redpill on Tue, 28th Apr 2015 7:17 pm
What zoidberg said.
As low-brow as forbes is usually, this is beyond the pale.
simonr on Wed, 29th Apr 2015 7:34 am
Makati
I would say war is one of the defining features of Civilisation.
From the Delian league onwards.
Even the swiss !!!
You may not like it, but that is a different point.
Simon
Mark Ziegler on Wed, 29th Apr 2015 9:07 am
Since it is Forbes asking the question the answer is simple. Short a few blocks of stock.
viewcrafters
Makati1 on Wed, 29th Apr 2015 7:58 pm
Davy, a few dozen war mongers in DC have taken the US into 8 wars since 2001. Aren’t the 300 million plus Americans adults?
How about the growing Police State in America? Can’t the “adults” stop it?
How about the growing poverty in America caused by a few Fed banksters?
How about the fact that the voting “adults” have no say in their government any more?
How about the trillion dollar military/security budget that is totally unnecessay?
And on and on…
That the Ps leaders still believe US propaganda is the problem, but they are starting to realize that they are being used just like the Koreans, Vietnamese, Iranians, etc. I expect a big change in government here the next election in 2016.
BTW: Average voting turnout here in the Ps is between 70 and 90% since 1946. Last prez election in the US had a 58% turnout and averages between 50% and 60% over the same time period.
apneaman on Wed, 29th Apr 2015 8:12 pm
simonr, you could go one step further and say war is one of the defining features of all living things. To an invading virus, your just a bag of warm juicy resources. New territory to be conquered.
Davy on Wed, 29th Apr 2015 8:24 pm
Mak, no arguments on your trashing and bashing of the American war pigs.
Makster, the P’s are an insignificant overpopulated Asian Country that you now make your life’s mission to advertise like Trip Advisor. Who friggen cares about the P’s Makster. You’re such a dork. Go back down to the pool and drink your morning San Miguel.
GregT on Wed, 29th Apr 2015 8:25 pm
” To an invading virus, your just a bag of warm juicy resources. ”
Shhh. Don’t tell that to Nony and the eCONomists. I’m sure they’d try to figure out a way to turn a profit from those resources too.
Davy on Wed, 29th Apr 2015 8:36 pm
Greg, the NOo was extra cocky today for some reason. He dominated the PO airwaves with his anti-peaker agenda. He did all that without his side kick Marmi’s help.
Davy on Wed, 29th Apr 2015 8:43 pm
Check this out Makster:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-29/family-vendettas-turn-southern-philippines-into-clan-war-zone
simonr on Thu, 30th Apr 2015 7:19 am
Apnea
I heard somewhere that it was mans ability to wage war (as opposed to raiding and personal violence) that sparked our mental evolution, in that it takes a lot of teamwork and tactics to wage war
Simon