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When This All Blows Up…

When This All Blows Up… thumbnail

This report marks the end of a series of three big trains of thought. The first explained how we’re living through the Mother Of All Financial Bubbles. The next detailed the Great Wealth Transfer that is now underway, siphoning our wealth into the pockets of an elite few.

This concluding report predicts how these deleterious and unsustainable trends will inevitably ‘resolve’ (which is a pleasant way of saying ‘blow up’.)

The Ka-POOM Theory

In terms how this will all end, we favor the scenario put forth by Eric Janszen in 1998 called the Ka-POOM theory.

This theory rests on the belief that the Federal Reserve along with the other world central banks looked at Japan’s several decades of economic stagnation and decided that deflationary recessions are to be avoided at all costs — even if that means blowing asset bubbles and then cleaning up the destruction left behind in their aftermath.

Because the Fed, et al. have a limited playbook (which is: print, and then print some more), the Ka-POOM model calls for limited periods of disinflation, followed by massive money printing sprees that then produce high inflation.

Despite the trillions and trillions in thin-air money printed by the world’s central banks over the past 8 years, a common rebuttal we hear is “But there’s been no inflation so far!”  To which I reply, “Yes, that’s what we’re being told. But that’s not actually true.”

Remember: inflation is simply “too much money chasing too few goods.”  We can detect today’s excess of money in the rising prices in our cost of living — but those higher prices are symptoms, not causes. Inflation is not “higher prices”. Inflation is “too much money”.

Next, inflation is not an evenly-distributed event. It’s not like the price of everything rises 10% at the same time. The inflation rate is an average, which contains some prices going up, while others stay flat or even go down going down. It’s always a lumpy experience.  The reason why is that money is not evenly distributed across the economy, and it doesn’t always chase (or desire) the same things.

So the Fed and other central banks have printed up trillions and trillions of dollars, euros and yen, which they then essentially handed over to the financial markets and the very few people who work within them (as well as their biggest clients).  As a direct consequence, we’ve seen enormous inflation in the prices of things that relate to that tiny universe of people – stocks, bonds, trophy city apartments, Gulfstream 5 jets, fine art, and rare gems.

These items have all gotten massively more expensive over the past decade. Just as would have happened if the Fed had printed up a trillion dollars and given them everyone living in a trailer park in the American South, with the restriction that the money could only be used to buy other trailers in the region. Do you have any doubt that the price of trailers in the South wouldn’t explode upwards?

Well, that’s exactly analogous to what has happened to financial and trophy assets. The amount of money created and poured into the financial markets by that central banks has been incredibly enormous. As a first-order event, it raised the prices of nearly all financial assets. And then, as a second-order derivative, it then flowed into the properties and cherished possessions of the financial industry insiders.

The summary is that we’ve already had lots of inflation – but it has (so far) been mostly contained to the areas where the freshly-printed money was first directed. No surprise there.

But it’s certainly not only been limited to the rarified items the rich enjoy. Anyone who is currently looking to purchase a home, car or college education has a pretty good idea how prices have jumped substantially over the past decade.

Here’s the thing about the attempts by central banks to circumvent the workings of the actual economy by simply printing up money: It is doomed to fail. It always does; one cannot simply ‘print up’ prosperity.  Printing up money merely creates the illusion of free wealth for those with first access to it. In reality, what happens is that it secretly transfers the wealth from everyone else to those lucky few.

The Fed and the rest of the central banking cartel are consciously and very pointedly picking winners and losers.

It’s not in their power to make everyone a winner.  So they have decided to throwing granny (and savers and pensions) under the bus while financial elites and well-connected speculators (e.g. JP Morgan and other large banks) extremely wealthy in the process.  Wealth is being transferred from Parties B-Z to Party A – from the many to the few.

What the Fed promised would happen along with all of this money printing has not materialized. There has been no return to rapid economic growth. And there won’t be, because we have massive structural problems in our economy that can’t be papered over forever.

This stark fact makes the Fed’s entire money printing misadventure not just pointless, but dangerously destabilizing from a social and political perspective. The world’s central banks, especially the Fed, have done an enormous amount of damage. These institutions, as well as the decision-makers within them, are going to have a heck of lot to answer for when the inevitable crack-up comes.

A Quick Re-Cap

And so here we find ourselves, at the final torturous, grinding part where the final bubble top is formed. The über-bubble. The Greatest Of Them All.

A bubble this spectacular requires a top worthy of its size. A long, massive top, full of increasing exuberance — until the very last investor is sucked in.

Where I’ve noted humans’ remarkably silly behavior during bubble episodes in the past – tulip bulbs, railroads, swampland  – I still struggle to understand or even explain this one.

It’s so obvious at this point. And yet, like its brethren bubbles of the past, a lot of otherwise thoughtful and careful people are getting sucked in by its siren song.

I guess the best economic description of it might be “a credit bubble” with sub-components like sovereign and household debt, and sub-sub-components like Toronto real estate and the IPO price for SNAP shares (that’s Snapchat, which soon after its launch, had a valuation of $40 billion. This mind you, is a company that has no identifiable revenue model).

A credit bubble occurs when the issuance of credit grows faster than income supporting it. Here’s what that looks like on a national scale for the US. The bottom red line is income (GDP) and the top blue line is Total Debt. We can see that debt has been growing at twice the rate of GDP since 1970:

Debt to GDP

You have to be quite delusional to think that debt can be compound at twice the rate of income forever. Unfortunately, there are more than a few of those ungrounded optimists working in central banks and governments the world over. Their thinking is simply, The sky’s the limit! 

Those of us living in reality find this mindset puerile and insulting. And, of course, dangerously reckless. And it’s also maddening to hear the media cheerleaders for Wall Street selling us this bunk as if it were somehow sensible.  It is not.

Look, millions — likely billions — of people are at risk of getting badly hurt. When this bubble blows, it’s going to be enormously destructive and take out a lot of wealth along the way.  Millions of jobs will be destroyed. What people think of as wealth will evaporate as though it never existed in the first place (it didn’t). Political dynasties and major financial institutions will be ruined.

As I wrote recently, this will be widely and popularly referred to a period of wealth destruction. It will feel that way to must, but it will be actually be a period of wealth transfer:

The summary here is this: We are still printing and borrowing enormous amounts of money and credit, but the world is not growing any larger in response.  The pressure is building.  Nobody knows when all of that money and credit will have to be ‘trued up’ against the amount of real stuff out there. But it will. History shows us that it always does.

And that moment will be referred to by most as a period of wealth destruction. 401ks will be shredded, bonds will become worthless, defaults will spike, institutions and entire countries will fail – but the truth is that all of that paper ‘wealth’ was an illusion. People’s faith in it had been betrayed long before, when those in power started abusing the system by creating too many tertiary claims.

After the dust settles, there will be winners and losers, and those with the proper framework will understand that what actually happened was that all of the wealth was transferred from those who thought they owned it, to those who actually did.

The biggest remaining question is whether the wealth transfer comes about in the form of an inflationary destruction, like in Venezuela today, or as a deflationary bust more in the fashion of Greece.

(Source)

The only thing that capable of preventing this coming carnage would a resumption of rapid economic growth. And I mean growth that exceeds the rate of debt creation.

But that’s simply not going to happen.

The Problem With Growth

We can dispense with the idea of “solving” our too-much-debt problem by a resumption of rapid economic growth either by deduction or observation.  Both work just as well on their own, but each tells a similar story in this case.

The deductive route notes that economic growth stimulated by ever-higher amounts of borrowing simply requires greater and greater debt loads to accomplish.  Eventually debt levels simply become too high, and pinch off growth.

We can also deduce that because economic growth is tightly linked to energy consumption, lower amounts of usable energy flowing through an economy will cause that economy to stall out as well. Because we know that both the quantity as well as the net yield we get from our energy-producing activities are flattening, this explains why GDP growth is flattening too.

Thus, from a deductive standpoint, combining what we know about high levels of debt and flattening energy returns energy there’s really no more room for confusion about why GDP growth is, and will remain, anemic (at best).

Observationally, we now have more than a full decade of sub-par (i.e., ‘too low’) world GDP growth:

Debt to GDP

(Source)

Notice that the last year of data, 2016, is coming in at the lowest reading since the Great Recession, while the next two years are estimated to also come in at less than 3%.  The world hasn’t averaged 3% GDP growth in a decade. Even the mighty US has gone more than ten straight years without breaking into the 3% range.

We have to ask: How many years does it take to finally admit that there’s something seriously wrong with our hopeful story line that robust growth is going to save our debt-ridden bacon?

Just for the record, things are not shaping up any better here in 2017 either…

Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts 1.2% 1Q17 growth

And, just for kicks, we might also note that the GDP forecasting agencies of the world have consistent in over-estimating future growth.  Of course, this doesn’t deter them from continuing to predicting higher future growth each year. As a case in point, here are the IMF’s predictions for world growth over the past 6 years:

Debt to GDP

(Source)

Each of those colored lines is a forecast.  Each of them foresaw growth going notably higher in the near future.  Not only was every one of them utterly wrong in direction, each failed at getting even the next quarter anywhere close to right.  See how none of those lines ever dips below 3%?  See in the prior chart how global growth never breached 3% in any of these same plotted years?

For a variety of reasons, with aging demographics being a huge factor, future growth in the OECD countries must slow:

Debt to GDP

(Source)

My ‘prediction’ is that these projections will turn out to be far too high. Mainly because I include declining net energy in my views and no mainstream economist ever does.  But the track records of these outfits shows that taking the ‘under’ side of the over/under bet offers incredibly safe odds.

At any rate, the main story here is that the only way we can begin to justify the astronomical levels of debt currently on the books, let alone slathering on new tranches just to keep the whole thing form imploding, is to have a story of endless, rapid future economic growth. Which is, we’ve already shown, a delusional fantasy.

Stagnating growth, ever more trillions of debt, and a finite amount of depleting net energy all adds up to an unsustainable mess.  With asset price bubbles everywhere and wealth transfer mechanisms already in place, the end-game involves a very few winners and a lot of losers.

Anything that is this unsustainable will someday end. But how? And how should we position ourselves for it?

In Part 2: The Ka-POOM! Survival Guide, we detail in depth the most likely progression predicted by the Ka-POOM! model. First, a punishing crash in prices as natural market forces eventually overwhelm the Fed’s doomed efforts to print the world to prosperity. Think of the 2008 crash, but on steroids.

Then will come the inevitable response from the central banking cartel: Set the printing machines on maximum speed! While this may seem to work for a brief while, it will soon collapse the world’s currencies in a hyperinflationary deluge.

This will be a very tricky time for preserving wealth as things swing violently from disinflation to inflation. Understanding the mechanics and knowing what to expect will be critical — not just for safeguarding your money, but for taking advantage of what will surely be some of the best bargains of our lifetime.

PeakProsperity.com



40 Comments on "When This All Blows Up…"

  1. ________________________________________ on Sat, 11th Mar 2017 7:51 pm 

    Also Ivanka will have a sex change by 2060.

  2. Midnight Oil on Sat, 11th Mar 2017 9:20 pm 

    Winston Churchill… “Money Melts”

  3. makati1 on Sat, 11th Mar 2017 9:31 pm 

    Most have NO idea what destruction is coming. I said, “IS” not “IF”. The only question is time. How many rabbits are left in the hat until the magician pulls out the bear? Not many, I would guess. We may find out on Wednesday.

  4. dooma on Sat, 11th Mar 2017 9:44 pm 

    What a shame. You would never tell by looking at her that she once was a male.

    If it aint broke…..

  5. Boat on Sat, 11th Mar 2017 9:56 pm 

    Makes a note to look for destruction on Thursday. This mak.

  6. makati1 on Sat, 11th Mar 2017 11:57 pm 

    Looking and actually seeing are two different things, Boat. Most Americans don’t even look let alone see. They don’t want to. They know deep down that their world is crumbling around them. For instance:
    “Caught On Video: Man Brutally Beaten In Lower Manhattan As People Walk By”
    “California Is Exporting Its Poor To Texas” (The migration has begun.)
    “Widespread AT&T Outages Reported Across The US”
    “Restaurant Sales And Traffic Tumble”
    “US Government Revenues Suffer Biggest Drop Since The Financial Crisis”
    “American Men Are Giving Up On Jobs”
    “Big Brother Spying in America. Perilously Close to a “Totalitarian State”
    “A Third Of All U.S. Shopping Malls Are Projected To Close As ‘Space Available’ Signs Go Up All Over America”
    “American Carnage – Fighting the Forever War”
    “Health-care costs, not new iPhones, are the reason you’re broke”
    “America’s infrastructure is crumbling, but a pipe-crawling robot could help”
    “Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast Spirals Down in Amazing Manner”
    “16 Year Congressman Dennis Kucinich: CIA Leak Shows We’re “Sliding Down the Slippery Slope Toward Totalitarianism, Where Private Lives Do Not Exist”
    “Unfunded Liabilities of Largest Pension Plans in U.S. Increase, While Assets Rise”
    “31% Of College Students Spend Their Loans On Spring Break” (Coming snowflake tax bailout.)
    “The American Empire Was Challenged On Nearly Every Front This Week”
    “Democrats and Trump Bid Up Militarism” (War, the last gasp of a failing empire.)

    Signs of the U$ collapse, but ignored by most. It is happening under your nose, Boat.

  7. Apneaman on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 1:33 am 

    “Also Ivanka will have a sex change by 2060.”

    I’ll still fuck her….him….it….whatever.

  8. Apneaman on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 1:36 am 

    Boat’s like that guy who doesn’t believe he will ever die because he hasn’t died yet.

  9. Go Speed Racer on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 3:28 am 

    ……. And Oh, the stories we could tell.

    And if this ALL BLOWS UP and goes to Hell,
    I can still see us sitting on the bed in some motel,
    Listening to the stories we could tell.

    – Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CshBWub4ySg

  10. makati1 on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 5:10 am 

    While the West blows up, the rest of the world moves on…

    “… in every period of panic and crisis combined with economic mismanagement, which we are seeing today, gold has always acted as insurance. The setup is now perfect for gold to act to protect wealth against the coming problems in financial markets and the world economy…”the Indians know this, the Chinese know this but the West doesn’t understand because they have been indoctrinated by paper money…”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-11/gold-uncertain-times-west-doesnt-get-it-theyve-been-indoctrinated-paper-money

    “Away from the current chaos in the United States, major developments are progressing, with Iran, Russia and China coordinating on a series of significant moves crucial for the future of the Eurasian continent. With a population of more than five billion people, constituting about two-thirds of the Earth’s population, the future of humanity passes through this immense area. Signaling a major change from a unipolar world order based on Europe and the United States to a multipolar world steered by China, Russia and Iran, these Eurasian states are carving out a leading role in the development of the vast continent.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-11/strategic-triangle-changing-world

    And the beat goes on…

  11. Davy on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 6:35 am 

    We have an unsustainable system. It is global and it is planetary. Systematic and planetary timeframes are longer than our human personal timeframes. With this process being global we are going to have location effect from the global and to the global. Most all locations are built on arrangements with no future because of globalism. Globalism by its nature is limited by a finite planet. Key nodes of support influence the global like key nations and resource complexes. These are too big or too important to fail variables. The combination of the local and global are a key ingredient to watch for personally.

    Overpopulation and overconsumption are variable per local. Either points to a failed arrangement in collapse for you personally. Many larger urban areas have both conditions. We have a global system that is now brittle to change except from collapse with a break to a new threshold of economic activity. A new threshold of economic activity will have a new population level. Economic activity equals food production and related support features. Population is directly related to food and its distribution. We forget these inconvenient issues in our modernism.

    So our first question is how long can globalism continue to grow? We can agree we are still growing but how much of this growth is real and beneficial for the future. It can be argued much of today’s growth is nothing more than waste with little future benefit so IOW bad debt. We are in every indication of being in the vicinity of systematic limits on globalism. We already have passed certain limits but these are not yet vital minimums which cause collapse. We have planetary decline and localized failures including extinctions. Climate is in abrupt change with localized emphasis. Where and when will a vital minimum be breached causing localized failure? When will a global minimum be cross causing globalism to spiral down in lower capabilities? We are heading to some point because of increasing levels of variables that will contribute to collapse are in a process of accumulating.

    We have to look to both global and local for our own personal risk. Where will the global system of competitive cooperation choose to triage out states and industries that are not the most vital? This is not all under central control much of it is self-organizing and adaptive. It happens because of billions of individual decisions. How will globalism react to an economic and social atrophy which is economically disruptions to finance and economies of scale? Human nature of confidence and liquidity have limits. In hypothermia there is vasoconstriction that progressively limits heat to outer limbs resulting in frostbite. We also need to consider the wealth effects of decline. When will markets and currencies undergo dramatic decline? How far can notional wealth be disrupted and what effects to the overall system?

    Much of the world’s wealth is fictional. Most debt is notional. Real physical wealth is local and systematic. How much will a Bill Gates control in a crash? We can be sure militaries will control real wealth if a serious collapse occurs. This means we should be looking for martial law in those areas with vital systematic and local wealth. Those areas with food potential and fresh water will be coveted and protected by organizations in power.

    We are still early in the collapse process. The effects today are on the periphery. Vital minimums are not yet breached. In fact we are seeing a generalized demand destruction appearing as stagflation. We have so much excess capacity and still available resources this process could now become one of a declining demand with supply declines following up behind this demand destruction. In other words we will never recover but we are also not in mortal collapse either but there are limits to this type of decline process called minimum operating levels. None of this can be known only speculated on. Eventually vital global minimums will be breached that cascade into a system wide failure of most locals.

    In the meantime and during this process failures will be localized and systematic. Dysfunctional and random failure will occur. Economic abandonment will leave localized populations disenfranchised. Economic abandonment and dysfunction networks will mean irrational outcomes. Only this time the process will not be creative destruction like we saw in the 20th century with increasing growth to mop up the casualties. This will be destructive change in a vortex of decline with mortality. This is about momentums and inertias at different levels both growing and declining on a bumpy plateau of turbulence.

    You should look around you at your local and ask yourself what these risk factors are. In the status quo this is hard to see. If you look at life from the status quo narrative you will not see all the real risk factors. Real value is distorted by price and propaganda. You will be deceived into seeing important status quo variables which are not reality. The status quo has a narrative and values that are a subset of reality. Look through this and see what is happening around you in your local. We can see the global is unsustainable and clearly under stress. Picture your local in a global decline. In the end all wealth and survival is a localized affair. Now that all locals have been delocalized by globalism we have the added feature of globalism decline on locals in catastrophic failure of all locals. This is a messy picture but one that can be navigated with honesty and realism.

  12. Davy on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 6:46 am 

    Makati says “the Indians know this, the Chinese know this but the West doesn’t understand because they have been indoctrinated by paper money…”.

    makati, why are the rich Chinese leaving China with money and people? You can’t explain that one away can you? Obviously they know something. Where are they going? West.

  13. Cloggie on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 7:11 am 

    makati, why are the rich Chinese leaving China with money and people? You can’t explain that one away can you? Obviously they know something. Where are they going? West.

    Expansion? Imperialism?

  14. makati1 on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 7:32 am 

    Cloggie, why are the rich leaving the U$? (5,000+ renounced their U$ citizenship just last year.) They know that their ill gotten gains are going to be confiscated by their government in the form of taxes or legal proceedings as time moves forward. Every country has its elite who made their wealth illegally. They are abandoning ship with all they can steal while they still can. But investing in American real estate is going to blow up in their faces.

    Governments are tightening the screws on what can be taken out legally. The U$ now takes a large percentage out of the net worth of those deciding to abandon the sinking U$$ Debt. 25% to 40% last article I read. If I was a crooked Chinese, I would be trying to leave China before I am investigated. It has nothing to do with China’s economy but everything to do with Xi’s crack down on illegal gains and controlling exit cash.

    As I am an American with nothing the U$ government wants, I can come and go with little thought. I have been here over 3,000 days. I could have legally taken over $3 million out of the U$, $1,000 a day, IF I had that much to take. LOL

    BTW: Currently, over 7 million Americans live outside the U$.

  15. Davy on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 7:46 am 

    “5,000+ renounced their U$ citizenship just last year.” Makati, here is a chance for you to do some mental exercising to improve your intellectual laziness. Divide 5000 by 330MIL and tell me what that is. Let me save you the time it is insignificant. Good riddance I wish more were leaving. In another self-exam tell me how many leave your overpopulated ecologically destroyed Island? Yeap.

  16. Davy on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 7:55 am 

    “It has nothing to do with China’s economy but everything to do with Xi’s crack down on illegal gains and controlling exit cash.”

    LOL, shows what you understand about economics.

    Is there a reason you don’t talk about the Bric bank anymore? Could that be related to economics? If we look back 4 years we see one failed makati agenda after another. Makati, it is all written down and you can’t hide from it. We can google every word you said here on this board. Most of it has failed one failure at a time.

  17. dkb on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 7:56 am 

    The elite are just doing their best to get by in this world. They have their nuclear bomb proof fallout shelters constructed, they’ve been prepared for years now. BFD.

    When Reagan was elected president, the stealth bombers hit Libya, the world was going nuts back then too. After sometime, gold was a must buy if you are going to survive. You better be ready to spend a few days in the wilderness while the carnage rages in the cities. That’s what was the zeitgeist in 1980 or so.

    The world was going to go to hell, the return of the thousand year war, Reading what some were writing, you had better be ready for war, everything was going to be wrong.

    37 years later, the world is still here and still on its way to hell. Everything is wrong now like it was all wrong back in 1980 when the siege of the American embassy in Tehran was the crisis of the day, month and year.

    If you are going to survive, you better be prepared. Gets old, being prepared for the apocalypse for years on end.

    Whole armies duke it out all of the time. How much war has been going on since 1790, the breakout of the French Revolution, the Reign of Terror? Then the next thing you know, forty years later the Opium Wars all of a sudden were in full swing,

    How many wars? War is a constant in the world of humans, war is taking place all of the time in one form or another. Some internecine battles going on now.

    Let’s tally some of them.

    The French Revolution, one for the books.

    Napolean goes wild in Europe, goes to Russia and freezes to death some 400,000 French Soldiers.

    The Opium Wars, the British still get Hong Kong for 150 years.

    Mexican-American War

    The Civil War, oil is part of the action.

    Spanish-American War

    Civil war in Russia

    World War I

    Japan invaded China and Mongolia

    The British learn a lesson in Afghanistan, Kipling writes some memoirs and If.

    World War II, Japan and Germany raise hell for a few years, then get sucker punched the day after Trinity, J. Robert Oppenheimer built a whale of a bomb.

    French-Indochina

    Vietnam

    Russia invaded Afghanistan, the US became friends with the Freedom Fighters, mailed Stinger missiles over there to down Russian aircraft.

    Even Iraq and Iran battled for six or seven years or so.

    Then to Iraq for some more war there. Then 911, then more war in Afghanistan, then back over to Iraq. Syria is the place to be for war now and the Russians are using war machinery to help keep ISIS on the run.

    What the hell, war is a part of life, always been in a permanent state. Costs lives and treasure, whole fortunes are lost.

    Just the way life goes in the real world.

    It’s called living and it is done everyday for eight decades or more if you are lucky enough to suffer that long.

    All 7,490,000,000 humans on this day still hang around because that is what has to be done while you are alive. The manufacturing robots will slave away night and day, they will never complain.

    As long as there are 75,000,000 barrels of crude, 20,000,000 of gas and other oils, electricity generated from every source and resource possible, life will go on just like it does now. The entire planet is prepared to survive, develop resources, build farm machinery, trucks, trains, ships, planes, everything there is to make civilizations function, preparations must be made.

    War and all. That’s life.

  18. makati1 on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 8:05 am 

    Dream on dkb. Your history lesson is wasted on those of us who are old. The cold war was almost hot several times. Would you prefer to be prepared and it never happen or not prepared and it happen tomorrow? And what is prepared other then common sense like having extra water, food and batteries on hand?

    I bet you have home and car insurance and health coverage, hoping you NEVER have to use them. Isn’t that a bit over the top? You waste thousands of dollars per year for preps you hope to never need to use. LMAO

    You do not see the real world, only the one served to you in the the MSM Propaganda. When you join the permanently unemployed, you may open your eyes. How much FF is left means nothing, or haven’t you picked up on that fact yet? Billions of barrels will still be here when homo sapiens are history. That is a fact.

  19. twocats on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 9:00 am 

    Always been a big fan of Janszen and even subscribed to tulip for a while. Presumably if one had spare money there are ways to prepare for the kapoom that don’t rely on “timing” the beginning of deflationary period.

  20. onlooker on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 9:02 am 

    Yeah dkb peddle your soothing fantasies somewhere else as others have said not a question of if but when. That is why the rich are busy preparing by buying islands and bunkers. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2702812/billionaire-tech-tycoons-are-frantically-buying-up-properties-on-remote-islands-amid-fears-america-and-europe-will-be-ravaged-by-nuclear-war/

  21. Cloggie on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 9:28 am 

    Turkey threatens to leave NATO:

    http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/recep-tayyip-erdogan/nach-einreise-verbot-tuerkei-droht-mit-nato-ausstieg-50803830.bild.html

    What are you waiting for, mr Erdogan?

    Nobody is going to miss you.

    And with Ankara no longer reigned in by Washington, the future of Israel will look increasingly dark (pun intended).

    The Iranians can’t wait either:

    http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/03/12/514030/Turkey-Netherlands-tension-NATO-EU-Erdogan-executive-power

    It should be remembered that there may be a large antagonism between KSA and Iran, but not between Iran and Turkey.

  22. paulo1 on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 9:54 am 

    Until the bickering started, Mak and Davy gave us some excellent points to ponder.

    Mak with this one: “Most Americans don’t even look let alone see. They don’t want to. They know deep down that their world is crumbling around them.”

    And Davy with, “We are still early in the collapse process”.

    I am almost done re-reading JM Greer’s ‘Dark Age America’. Boy, was he ever prescient. I mentioned this book to my American sister and she said she just couldn’t ‘go there’. In fact, she is limiting her information access to retain her sanity and well-being.

    I can understand this deliberate action.

    What I can’t understand is simple stupidity and delberate blindness by folks unwilling to believe their hamster wheel has no future. Cultural focus on celebrities, sports, fluff crap, debt for consumption people don’t need. Mindless consumption of everything possible.

    We are in the beginning of obvious decline. These current events were well described by JMG. And people are deliberately choosing not to see or try and rescue their lives as this unfolds. Instead, _________ .

    Get rid of debt, folks. Learn some practical skills, find a good place to live, and enjoy these days of apparent plenty while they still exist.

    regards

  23. Cloggie on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 11:07 am 

    Geert Wilders and his “get lost message” to the Turks:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b9voyE2wF8

    Turks are symbolically killing Dutch by cutting Oranges:

    https://twitter.com/AlevScott/status/840898058309246977/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    Perhaps the Cloggies might want to reconsider their cheap holiday in Turkey this year (and after).

    The idiocy of multiculturalism; pro-Erdogan newspaper hints at the fact that the Dutch army has 48,000 men and that there are 400,000 Turks living in the Netherlands.

    (The newspaper forgets to mention that these 400,000 Turks don’t have arms and that there are also 14 million Dutch still living in Holland who get more fed-up with the Muslims with every passing day)

    But the Turks have certainly a point: it is time for massive European rearmament programs, as requested by president Trump, now that the US overlord is retreating.

    Hippy-dippy days are over.

  24. penury on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 12:02 pm 

    It is not only the U.S. that refuses to see the decline in the real world. There are no safe places to hide and wait out the approaching darkness. Everything and everyone on the planet will be affected, Europe and the U.S. being the most highly ladeb with debt and useless toys will feel the pain the most but the decay will come to all. And all the people who complain that they have been waiting for the collapse for nine years and nothing has happened will be rewarded for their patience as will the fans of Malthus.

  25. bug on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 1:19 pm 

    Let’s hope the KA POOOM theory happens in 2017 or 18, and on a monday.
    Penury, I haven’t complained, it is all to fun to watch.

  26. Apneaman on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 1:28 pm 

    Hair clog, why not visit the Alps on your next vacation?

    This glacier was featured on a postcard in 1900. A camera captured where it is today.

    “Unsurprisingly, man-made climate change has wreaked havoc on the planet’s glaciers — including the Pasterze, which is Austria’s largest.

    Just how much havoc are we talking about? Well…

    A series of stunning photos, published in August, show just how far the glacier has receded since its heyday.

    First measured in 1851, the glacier lost half of its mass between that year and 2008.

    A marker placed in 1985 shows where the edge of the glacier reached just 31 years ago. You can still see the ice sheet, but just barely, way off in the distance. In between is … a big, muddy lake.”

    http://www.upworthy.com/this-glacier-was-featured-on-a-postcard-in-1900-a-camera-captured-where-it-is-today

  27. Apneaman on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 1:32 pm 

    Or Siberia

    Disturbing melody of melting permafrost in ‘crater’ called ‘gateway to hell’

    http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0895-disturbing-melody-of-melting-permafrost-in-crater-called-gateway-to-hell/

    In that aerial picture the crater looks like a giant sperm, which is fitting given it’s a major indicator that the humans are fucked.

  28. Cloggie on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 1:33 pm 

    Loser, I go to the Swiss Alps every year and have seen the decline of the gletschers first hand:

    https://petapixel.com/2015/10/25/these-before-and-after-photos-show-how-glaciers-in-the-us-are-melting/

  29. Apneaman on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 1:42 pm 

    Or you could always come to Northern Canada and really see an eye full……of doom.

    Study Shows Massive Global Permafrost Melt Underway & Intensifying; Swift Decline Is Poised To Rapidly Accelerate Global Warming

    “Oldspeak:”Yes, while humans huff and puff about The Big Cheeto and his band of Merry Damned, “Research shows immense expanses of permafrost rapidly disintegrating and releasing huge carbon stores in Canada, Alaska, Scandinavia, and Siberia”. Methane specifically. You know, that lovely greenhouse gas we’re poisoning our water supplies to dig up to use as fuel? The one that “ in the first two decades after its release… is 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide” as a heat trapping gas? Well, many many many assloads of it are being released into the environment right now from melting, formerly known as permanently frozen ice all across the arctic. Can’t be stopped on human timescales. So it’s probably gonna get a little hotter as per usual, a lot faster than expected. Oooh MY. If only there were life insurance for death from intolerable heat! Then everything would be ok. One can only dream… “-OSJ”

    https://theoldspeakjournal.wordpress.com/2017/03/10/study-shows-massive-global-permafrost-melt-underway-intensifying-swift-decline-is-poised-to-rapidly-accelerate-global-warming/

    You should go visit them all…and soon while you still can hair clog.

    One final globe trotting vacation.

    The end-times meltdown tour.

  30. onlooker on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 3:15 pm 

    Every Govt around the world continues to pursue economic growth and most people in all countries are okay with that, so most of the world is blind to reality

  31. Jeff Herman on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 4:06 pm 

    With fracking and the coming microwave fracking, I do not understand your declining energy formula.
    Also declining energy does not fit with your aging population scenario!

    But I doubt your energy miss will change the overall outcome of your analysis.

    WHAT, ME WORRY!

    While looking for investments in late 1999, it became apparent that EVERY asset class was over valued, led by technology……, the DOW subsequently dropped by 45%!
    While looking for investments in late 2007, it became apparent that EVERY asset class was over valued, led by housing……, the DOW subsequently dropped by 55%!
    While looking for investment in 2016, it became apparent that EVERY asset class is over valued or already in depression, led by central banks!

    * U.S. stock markets are at all time highs
    * U.S. housing prices are at all time highs
    * U.S. commercial real estate prices are at all time highs
    * World bond markets are in a bubble
    * Gold market is in correction
    * Commodities are in a depression

    MORE REASONS TO WORRY!
    * This expansion is one of the longest since WWII
    * The velocity of money is at a 70 year low
    * Bond rates are at a 500 year low
    * The labor participation rate is at a 38 year low
    * Home ownership is at a 51 year low
    * Small business formation is at a 22 year low
    * Productivity is at lowest levels since the 70’s
    * Stock market margin is at all time highs
    * DOW PE ratios are in the 2000 and 2008 range
    * DOW Purchase volumes have been in decline since 2010
    * Corporate profits are in a recession
    * Commodities are in a depression
    * Incomes are flat for over 10 years
    * Aging populations in developing countries equals less spending
    * Student loan defaults are growing
    * Auto loans defaults are growing
    * Housing prices are reaching highs on low sales volume
    * Consumer debt is back to where it was in 2007
    * More people are on food stamps than ever before
    * Corporate insider stock buy backs are at a 29 year low
    * China is up to it’s eye balls in dysfunction and debt
    * Japan has 250% debt to GDP and growing
    * The Euro zone is in disfunction and recession
    * England has voted to leave the EU, others will follow
    * 2016 U.S. deficit is up because of declining corporate tax revenue
    * Italian banks are bankrupt, along with Deutsche Bank
    * World housing markets are in a bubble, Vancouver housing prices increased by 32% last year
    * The BOJ owns 10% of the Japanese stock market, 10%!
    * Switzerland’s Central Bank owns more Facebook stock that Zuckerberg

    POINTS FOR FALSE HOPE!
    * Central banks are buying stocks
    * A market ending buying frenzy that happened in 1929, Japan 1989, NASDAQ 2000, housing 2008, has not happened yet
    * Trump will be good for corporate profits

    I’m sure others can add to my list, but can someone, ANYONE give me a reason for this expansion to continue?

  32. Cloggie on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 6:56 pm 

    Bluexit. Blue states could pull the reverse 1776 plug as well, you know.

    https://newrepublic.com/article/140948/bluexit-blue-states-exit-trump-red-america

  33. Boat on Sun, 12th Mar 2017 10:05 pm 

    Clog,

    This blue state red state separation, are the Jews controlling the movement and are they red or blue.

  34. GregT on Mon, 13th Mar 2017 12:13 am 

    Boat,

    If you were capable of doing a little bit of research, you might be able to figure things out for yourself, instead of asking somebody that you’ve never met, that lives half way around the world. Come on Kevin, man up.

  35. GregT on Mon, 13th Mar 2017 12:33 am 

    Boat,

    Print out a copy of this and staple it to the wall next to your bank owned TV.

    http://imgc-cn.artprintimages.com/images/P-473-488-90/60/6067/4NZD100Z/posters/sam-gross-it-sort-of-makes-you-stop-and-think-doesn-t-it-new-yorker-cartoon.jpg

    It might be a little bit overwhelming at first, but I’m sure that even you should eventually be able to figure it out.

  36. makati1 on Mon, 13th Mar 2017 3:36 am 

    ““Suicide by reality denial”: this is the mother and father of all the other forms of suicide – the stubborn refusal to look at reality and accept the fact that “the party is over”. When I see the grim determination of US politicians (very much including the people supporting Trump) to continue to pretend as if the US hegemony was here to stay forever, when I see how they see themselves as the leaders of the world and how they sincerely believe that they need to get involved in every conflict on the planet, I can only come to the conclusion that the inevitable collapse will be painful.”

    “The Neocons’ refusal to accept the election of Donald Trump has resulted in a massive campaign to de-legitimize him. What the Neocons clearly fail to see, or don’t care about, is that by de-legitimizing Trump they are also de-legitimizing the entire political process which brought Trump to power and upon which the United States are built as a society. As a direct result from this campaign, not only are millions of Americans becoming disgusted with the political system they were indoctrinated to believe in, but internationally the notion of “American democracy” is becoming a sad joke.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-12/empire-should-be-placed-suicide-watch

    “Alexander Solzhenitsyn used to say that all states can be placed on a continuum which ranges from states whose authority is based on their power to states whose power is based on their authority. I think that we can agree that the authority of the USA is pretty close to zero. As for their power, it is still very substantial, but not sufficient to maintain the Empire. It is, however, more than adequate to protect the interests of the United States as a country provided the United States accept that they simply don’t have the means to remain a world hegemon.”

  37. makati1 on Mon, 13th Mar 2017 7:55 am 

    Beware the “Ides of March”.

    “Here in the United States, more than 9 trillion dollars was added to the national debt during the Obama years. If we had not taken more than 9 trillion dollars of consumption and brought it into the present, we would most assuredly be in the midst of an epic economic depression right now.

    Instead of taking our pain in the short-term, we have sold future generations of Americans as debt slaves, and if they get the chance someday they will look back and curse us for what we have done to them. … A big test is coming up. A while back, Barack Obama and the Republican Congress colluded to suspend the debt ceiling until March 15th, 2017, and this week we are going to hit that deadline. … he best that our leaders can do for now is to keep the bubble alive for as long as possible, because what comes after the bubble is gone will be absolutely unthinkable.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-13/21714-every-man-woman-and-child-world-global-debt-bomb-ready-explode

    Spending limit AND the Fed raising rates. A double barreled blast. And the beat goes on…

  38. Cloggie on Mon, 13th Mar 2017 8:39 am 

    Debt is an illusion:

    http://falsificationofhistory.co.uk/banksters/imaginary-debt/

  39. Davy on Mon, 13th Mar 2017 10:16 am 

    “Huge Oil Find Could Save Alaska’s Oil Sector”
    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Huge-Oil-Find-Could-Save-Alaskas-Oil-Sector.html

    “Spanish oil firm Repsol SA just announced the largest onshore oil discovery in the U.S. in three decades, a 1.2 billion barrel find on Alaska’s North Slope. Repsol has been actively exploring in Alaska since 2008 and finally hit a big one.”

    http://tinyurl.com/zspjpp3

    “The company said on Thursday that it and partner firm Armstrong Energy had struck light oil in Alaska’s North Slope in the Nanushuk Play. The “emerging” field could hold up to 1.2 billion barrels, new results from Horseshoe No.1 and 1A wells show. Madrid-based Repsol holds a 25 percent interest in the Horseshoe discovery.”

    “Plans for production development in the nearby Pikka field could potentially extract oil at a rate of 120,000 barrels per day by 2021.”

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