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Page added on November 6, 2017

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Saudi Arabia Says Lebanon Declared War

Public Policy

As expected, Saudi Arabia has cast itself as the victim of external Shia plotting after its internal weekend of chaos which included a missile attack from Yemen, the deaths of two princes and other high officials within a mere 24 hours, and an aggressive crackdown against dissent in the royal family which saw close to a dozen princes placed under house arrest. And as Al Jazeera noted, in this Saudi version of ‘Game of Thrones’, the 32-year-old Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) shows that he is willing to throw the entire region into jeopardy to wear the royal gown.

While Saudi Arabia has long blamed Iran for sowing unrest in the region, this evening’s declaration by Saudi Gulf affairs minister Thamer al-Sabhan that Lebanon has “declared war” against the kingdom is truly an historic first. But perhaps the biggest problem is that international media is currently uncritically spreading the statement, whereas what such a bizarre claim actually warrants is laughter. Thankfully, Nassim Nicholas Taleb sums it up nicely with a basic geography lesson: “Either the media is stupid, or Saudi rulers are stupid, or both. Lebanon did not formally declare war and there is no common border.”


Still image taken from a video distributed by Yemen’s pro-Houthi Al Masirah television station, which purports to show the ballistic missile previously launched at Saudi Arabia.

With that in mind, here is the statement currently making headlines as reported by Reuters:

Saudi Arabia said on Monday that Lebanon had declared war against it because of attacks against the Kingdom by the Lebanese Shi‘ite group Hezbollah.

 

Saudi Gulf affairs minister Thamer al-Sabhan told Al-Arabiya TV that Saad al-Hariri, who announced his resignation as Lebanon’s prime minister on Saturday, had been told that acts of “aggression” by Hezbollah “were considered acts of a declaration of war against Saudi Arabia by Lebanon and by the Lebanese Party of the Devil”.

Though clearly absurd (that Lebanon has declared war on KSA), the statement is driven by legitimate and deep-rooted fear, for not only has Hezbollah transformed itself into a Middle East powerhouse whose influence has grown vastly in the midst of the Syrian war, but it has transitioned into a quasi-state which has gained the respect of Lebanese and Arabs across the region. As we’ve noted many times before, it is fear of Hezbollah and its increasingly broad acceptance and legitimacy within Lebanese state institutions that also drives heightened Israeli rhetoric and bellicosity of late, which has once again “surprisingly” found itself on the same side as Saudi Arabia.

And at a moment that Israel has begun massive war games, and as MBS continues his purge toward total consolidation of power over the kingdom, both unlikely bedfellows continue their war of words against Hezbollah. It’s no secret that common cause in Syria of late has led the historic bitter enemies down a pragmatic path of unspoken cooperation as both seem to have placed the break up of the so-called “Shia crescent” as their primary policy goal in the region. But that’s perhaps why few pundits seemed overly shocked when Israeli media reported in early September that bin Salman may have made a secret visit to Israel, in spite of the fact that the kingdom does not recognize the Jewish state, and the two sides do not have diplomatic relations.

Will the current chaotic trajectory of things and unholy alliance between the Saudis and Israelis place Lebanon in the cross hairs of yet another Israeli-Hezbollah war? While we’ve recently addressed this question, this new and erratic Saudi declaration certainly puts the region a big step closer to such a war becoming a reality.

Though this question of the looming specter of an Israeli-Lebanese War (which would surely involve the Saudis aiding Israel politically inside Lebanon) has been addressed many times over of late, the real question, which isn’t often analyzed, is the true military capabilities of Hezbollah. What has both Israel and the Saudis worried is the fact that the Syrian war has possibly strengthened Hezbollah, not weakened it.

In a follow up article we will disect Hezbollah’s military capabilities, and its role in Lebanese society.

zerohedge



9 Comments on "Saudi Arabia Says Lebanon Declared War"

  1. Duncan Idaho on Mon, 6th Nov 2017 7:49 pm 

    “Though this question of the looming specter of an Israeli-Lebanese War (which would surely involve the Saudis aiding Israel politically inside Lebanon) has been addressed many times over of late, the real question, which isn’t often analyzed, is the true military capabilities of Hezbollah.”

    Missile technology is what has them freaked.
    Can you imigine them with sizzlers?

  2. Sissyfuss on Mon, 6th Nov 2017 8:48 pm 

    Hmmm,the Saudis conjuring up false flags and conspiracy theories to justify aggression. Now where do you suppose they came up with such a scenario?

  3. Apneaman on Mon, 6th Nov 2017 8:55 pm 

    peakoil.tards has become the sloppy seconds of zerohedge.

    Everyone’s a whore if it brings enough dopamine dollars.

    Two Princes?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsdy_rct6uo

  4. Anonymouse1 on Tue, 7th Nov 2017 3:33 am 

    But I just read the ‘sauds’ are building condo’s with 2 camel garages, swimming pools and IHOPs in the middle of nowhere. Now, they are gearing up for what, another war? They cant win the last one they started against a basically defenceless and impoverished neighbor(and that was *before the ‘sauds’ attacked mind you), even with the jewnited snakes assistance. Now the ‘sauds’ want to attack Lebanon? (Actually, I think they want to try to attack Syria since they are slowly pushing out cloggen-frauds jew buddies). More likely, Lebanon has nothing the sauds want, *except* a border with Syria, which could come in handy….

    But I do suggest they finishing losing the war they are currently waging, before they start another they (also) cannot win.

    Just say’n….

  5. Cloggie on Tue, 7th Nov 2017 3:52 am 

    Either the media is stupid, or Saudi rulers are stupid, or both.

    Neither/nor.

    Media + KSA rulers = US deep state.

    KSA is the famous “last man standing” of US influence in the ME.

    – The US lost Iran and its Shah puppet in 1981.

    – In reaction, the US managed to sick Saddam-Iraq against Iran in a brutal war in an attempt to get control over Iran back, but Saddam couldn’t topple the Mullahs.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r42oejmpkgw
    (shaking an Anglo politicians hand usually means that you are going to be (tried to be) killed later by said Anglos: Saddam, Assad, Khadaffi)

    – After Saddam failed, the US tried to conquer Iraq, after they telecrashed a number of planes in high-rise buildings on 9/11 first, to create the false pretext (CIA-Mossad). Even some Jews begin to fear their own courage:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbyBL3-ZOsM
    Eventually the US fled from Iraq (read: Green Zone) after declaring victory.lol

    – In 2011 the US and its allies Turkey, KSA and Qatar began to setup a mercenary army of “moderate Islamists” to initiate a war in Syria. If the US can’t have Iran and Iraq, than the US at least can own Syria, right? Wrong! Thanks to uncle Vlad, the US got its murderous ass kicked yet again. That’s what you get if you outsource your government to a group of folks, euphemistically described as “neocons”, or as the “world plague”, as they were less diplomatically described in the thirties in Europe or by America’s first politician Peter Stuyvesant in the 17th century as “a deceitful race, — such hateful enemies and blasphemers of the name of Christ, — be not allowed to further infect and trouble our new colony… they are a “repugnant race” and “usurers”” as he wrote to his masters in the Staten in faraway Holland in an attempt to keep them out from the New Netherlands project. In present day America don’t expect these words to be engraved in the facade of Stuyvesant High in New York.lol

    – In 2017, the US is with the back against the wall in the ME, after failure in Iran, Iraq and Syria and even temporarily lost Egypt to a democratically elected MB president Morsi. But fortunately they could give the nod to the Egyptian army and throw him where he belongs, namely in jail. Demockressie is great and all, provided it is controlled by (((oligarchs))) and their big wallets (US-2015, Russia-1991-2000 and Ukraine-2017 come to mind).
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10769041/The-US-is-an-oligarchy-study-concludes.html

    – Now it is November 2017. A Lebanese PM resigned this week in protest against what he saw as an Iranian attempt to take control of Lebanon, after Americans foolishly paved the way for Iran. PMs usually are smart misters who can’t be easily deceived. Houthi rebels and Iranian proxies are now able to launch missiles against the main Saudi airport in Riyahd. Qatar feels strong enough to set up the MB against the House of Saud. There is great panic among the royals who correctly feel encircled and only kept in the saddle by the US. Turkey keeps quiet and does not support the Royals. Turkey and Qatar would prefer to see the US removed from the ME completely than by whipping up the largely artificial Sunni/Shia divide. For the US the stakes could not be higher. If the royals fall, it is game over for the petro-dollar. If KSA falls, Egypt will fall and ME will finally be freed from centuries of European/American colonialism. The formation of an Islamic block would be huge step towards the coming multi-polar world.

    Interesting times to say the least.

  6. Davy on Tue, 7th Nov 2017 3:59 am 

    The hollow currency union

    “Italy Target2 Imbalance Hits Record €432.5 Billion As Dwindling Trust In Banks Plunges”
    http://tinyurl.com/ybjnplbp

    “Contrary to ECB propaganda, Target2 imbalances are a direct result an unsustainable balance of payment system. The imbalances represent both capital flight and debts that can never be paid back. If you think Italy can pay German and other creditors a record €432.5 Billion, you are in Fantasyland.”

    “Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog provides this easy to understand example: “Spain imports German goods, but no Spanish goods or capital have been acquired by any private party in Germany in return. The only thing that has been ‘acquired’ is an IOU issued by the Spanish commercial bank to the Bank of Spain in return for funding the payment.” This is not the same as an auto loan from a dealer or a bank. In the case of Target2, central banks are guaranteeing the IOU.”

    “Another Look at Capital Flight It is no coincidence that Target2 imbalances are on the rise as faith in banks collapses. Target2 is a measure of capital flight despite the ECB’s assurances to the contrary.”

  7. Cloggie on Tue, 7th Nov 2017 4:17 am 

    Davy in his desperation to find evidence for his desired implosion of Euroland (the coming overlord, together with Russia over parts of a balkanized USA), always has to resort to third rate names like Nicole Foss (housewife from New Zealand with collapsetard opinions) or now this total nobody Mike Mish Shidlock (who?).

    For the umpteenth time: yes Italy has the largest public deficit, yet at the same time it is financially the most stable country in the West, making this deficit completely irrelevant. Here is the reason why:

    http://tinyurl.com/y7yogxxn

    Short story: most Italians own their own homes, mostly mortgage free. Everybody loves to ignore this “little fact”, making Italy the most solvent country in the West, even before mighty Germany and the US even behind Greece, if you take into account the light blue bars in the graph, representing unfunded liabilities (pensions, infrastructure, public library, pools, military, etc, etc).

    Empire propaganda bullhorn Davy knows this very well, but he prefers to repeat his little lies in the hope to get sway with.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xr9Oubxw1gA

    “Tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies”

  8. Davy on Tue, 7th Nov 2017 4:23 am 

    An honest and trustworthy European establishment tells it like it is without the golden hoopla of so many emotional Euroguys. Similar scenarios await the US and China and of course with the worst awaiting the 3rd world. Places like the Philippines mad kat face famine and worse.

    “German Army Prepares For “Break-Up Of European Union” Or Worse…”
    http://tinyurl.com/y7ovdjzn

    “The German military is preparing for a number of scenarios over the next two decades ranging from “the disintegration of the EU” to “multipolar competition” and the unraveling of Western order. According to an internal report seen by Der Spiegel, the 102-page “Strategic Perspective 2040” report – adopted in late February and kept under wraps since then – outlines six scenarios for how social trends and international conflicts are likely to play out and influence German security.”

    “In one of the six scenarios (“The EU in Disintegration and Germany in Reactive Mode”), the authors assume a “multiple confrontation”. The future projection describes a world in which the international order erodes after “decades of instability”, the value systems worldwide diverge and globalization is stopped. “The EU enlargement has been largely abandoned, other states have left the community Europe has lost its global competitiveness,” write the Bundeswehr strategists: “The increasingly disorderly, sometimes chaotic and conflict-prone world has dramatically changed the security environment of Germany and Europe.” In the fifth scenario (“West to the East”), some eastern EU countries are freezing the state of European integration while others have “joined the Eastern bloc”. In the fourth scenario (“multipolar competition”), extremism is on the rise and there are EU partners who “even occasionally seem to seek a specific approach to Russia’s” state capitalist model “.

  9. Cloggie on Tue, 7th Nov 2017 5:03 am 

    “German Army Prepares For “Break-Up Of European Union” Or Worse…”

    Complete dishonest summary of the article. The German Army comes up with SIX very diverging scenarios and doesn’t chose, but the zerohedges and Davy’s of this world cherry pick the one scenario that fits in their sensationalist propaganda.

    These scenarios are merely intellectual games, as any army has nothing better to do in peace time. They have to think through these “worst case” scenarios. They absolutely do NOT predict that the EU will fall apart, they just go through eventualities.

    Having said that, if you want a European confederation, like Putin does, the EU does indeed eventually have to go:

    History European integration:

    EGKS > EEC > EC > EU > Greater European confederation

    It’s coming.

    But Imperialist Dave begins to see that Europe is indeed rising as a competitor with America for leadership of the still somewhat White World. America, under the whip of its Deep State, has failed miserable in representing white interests and let itself being used to destroy said world and therefore has to go.

    And it will. Even this smart deep staters (CFR jew) knows it will happen.

    https://www.amazon.com/End-American-Era-Geopolitics-Twenty-first-ebook/dp/B000XUDGTY/ref=sr_1_1

    Refuting the conventional wisdom that the end of the Cold War cleared the way for an era of peace and prosperity led solely by the United States, Charles A. Kupchan contends that the next challenge to America’s might is fast emerging. It comes not from the Islamic world or an ascendant China, but from an integrating Europe that is rising as a counterweight to the United States. Decades of strategic partnership across the Atlantic are giving way to renewed geopolitical competition. The waning of U.S. primacy will be expedited by America’s own ambivalence about remaining the globe’s guardian and by the impact of the digital age on the country’s politics and its role in the world.

    America was a European colony for three centuries, independent for 1 century and a Zionist colony for a century.

    No, America is not going to be a European colony again, we are not going to tax you, so no need to throw tea boxes in Boston Harbor again, but the political center of gravity of European man will return to Europe (I am betting on Prague as the capital of the coming European Confederation, replacing Brussels after the EU). NYC and its outdated post-WW2-victors court UN/SC will be closed down and replaced by a new round table seat of the coming multi-polar identitarian world order (I am betting on Astana, Kazakhstan, half way China and Greater Europe), the two major “poles” of that order.

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