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Russian Energy Sanctions have Backfired

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Western sanctions on the Russian energy sector have so far not had the intended devastating impact on Russian energy companies. Sanctions certainly did restrict the flow of Western investment, equipment and technology necessary toward the development of oil and natural gas fields in Russia, and the overall impact on Russia’s energy sector was indeed significant.

However, by forcing Russia to shift its focus from Europe to Asia, sanctions may have actually strengthened – not weakened – the Russian energy sector’s long-term prospects, while simultaneously derailing progress on a number of important international issues.

Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov has estimated the annual loss for Russia due to sanctions at approximately $40 billion, in addition to the $100 billion in revenue lost as a result of last year’s fall in global oil prices (which would have happened anyway). Unlike the sanctions against Iran, the main intention of sanctions against Russia was not to stop its oil and gas from getting to the world market, but to significantly diminish prospects for the sector’s development in the long run.

Reserve depletion levels are the more pressing issue for Russia. According to studies on Russia’s oil industry, the depletion level of recoverable reserves exceeds an average of 50 percent of the developed oil fields, while the degree of depletion is critical in the Urals and Volga region (in excess of 60 percent) and in the North Caucasus (nearly 80 percent).

To improve long-term production capabilities, Russia needs to develop new fields (including deep-water, Arctic offshore or shale projects), but the country lacks both the technology and investment necessary to do so. Western sanctions targeted exactly these types of ventures, prohibiting the provision, export or re-export of goods, services, or technology in support of exploration or production. In that regard, the sanctions have hit Russia hard indeed.

Russia offset the impact of sanctions by turning to Asia

Russia has been able to seek other sources of support for its energy sector, primarily from China and other Asian countries. After ten years of negotiation, Russia and China signed a major pipeline gas deal in 2014 that is expected to transfer Russian gas to China through the new pipeline “Power of Siberia”, starting in 2019. The presidents of both countries also signed a memorandum of understanding for the second Siberian gas pipeline on the Western-Siberia route through the Altai Mountains.

The 30-year agreement enabling the creation of the Power of Siberia will likely withstand any short or medium-term economic or political pressures that may appear in either Russia or China. There is a question about whether the fundamental assumptions and projections behind the agreement will endure for the coming three decades, however. For example, will China’s demand for oil continue to grow at the pace that it has over the previous three decades and continue to be an incentive to purchase as much oil from Russia?

Also, given the history between China and Russia, there is no guarantee that bilateral relations will remain conflict-free, particularly as there remain some unresolved border disputes between the two nations. It is important to bear in mind that both powers seek to enhance their ability to achieve their economic and military objectives in overlapping parts of the world, such as Central Asia, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Japan. They are not natural political allies.

Russian-Asian cooperation is also evident from gas pipeline consultations with South Korea, Japanese law makers’ support for a pipeline from the Sakhalin fields to Japan, and interest on the part of the Indian government for building a pipeline from Russia. Russia’s oil and gas continues to be imperative for Europe — as Europe remains dependent on Russian gas — and will grow in importance to Asia.

The development of shale gas fields in Europe has almost completely stopped due to high production costs and environmental concerns. When U.S. shale starts to be exported, it is likely to be sold mainly to Asia, where prices are higher and the infrastructure to import the product already exists. Other plans to supply Europe with natural gas — including pipelines from the Caspian region —remain at the inception stage, despite nearly two decades of European interest and support from the U.S.

Russia has no choice but to diversify its energy exports, and its ability to do so beyond its current initiatives appears to be good, which will give Russia the necessary flexibility to hedge against future risks. Russian political and business leaders have recently stated that despite the sanctions and other issues with Europe (such as the EU’s third energy package) Russian energy companies will continue to work there, which means that it will be harder for Western sanctions to stand the test of time.

The European Union must renew sanctions annually (which it has just done for the coming six months), whereas the U.S. must specifically stop them. Many European nations are under pressure from their respective business communities to stop the sanctions, whereas the U.S. is likely to keep them in place for many years to come, unless there is some fundamental change in the state of Russia-U.S. relations.

Western nations’ decision not to impose sanctions blocking the export of Russia’s oil and gas to the world market was deliberate, as the world needs Russia’s natural resources. If Russia had been restricted in this way, the result would have been significantly higher global oil and gas prices, so they were crafted so as not to have global repercussions. If the West were to try to impose broader sanctions, such as to restrict Russia’s banking sector, it could easily blow back in the form of an alternative currency union between Russia, China and its trading partners that excludes the use of the U.S. dollar.

For some time now, Western critics of European-Russian cooperation in the energy sector have been questioning Russia’s ability to support the required level of energy production, yet Russia continues to fulfill all contracts. Understanding the long-term importance of Russia’s energy resources, some European (and American) energy companies are looking for ways around the Western sanctions.

The entire situation has essentially evolved into a game of chicken, where Russia’s energy sector and economy are pressured while the West risks creating an even more tenuous global energy security environment. It is one thing to impose sanctions on the 29th largest economy in the world (Iran), and another to do the same on the world’s 10th largest economy by GDP (Russia), which has extensive trading relationships around the world.

In truth, the negative impact on the Russia economy and oil industry has much more to do with the decline in the price of oil than the imposition of sanctions. The more important issue is the evolving landscape among the oil producing nations regarding oil production levels.

How energy sanctions have backfired

While the West was doing what it knows best — imposing sanctions on Russia in retaliation for behavior it disagreed with (the re-incorporation of Crimea and support for rebels in Eastern Ukraine), it appears not to have thought out the potential consequences for Europe, or the changing dynamics of the global trade in oil and gas.

Having only partially succeeded in its original objective, and in turn having resulted in closer relations between Russia, China, and other Asian nations, lawmakers on both sides of the pond may now be regretting having imposed sanctions in the first place, particularly as the new sanctions regime has served to emphasize how very different the relative costs and benefits of sanctions have been for Europe versus the U.S., based on their levels of trade with Russia. Europe has been significantly negatively impacted, while the U.S. has not.

As a result of the sanctions, arms control between Russia and the U.S. is virtually dead, as is important potential cooperation between Russia and the U.S. on a host of other issues, ranging from Syria and Iran to the global fight against terror.

A generally heightened state of tension has emerged, prompting military chest thumping from both sides, alleged cyber-attacks, and the death knell of any thought of another attempted “reset” in bilateral relations. When faced with an external threat, Russian nationalism goes into hyper-drive, and the average Russian circles the wagons in response. Mr. Putin’s rankings remain above 80 percent in national polls. Which Western leader can say that?

Did Western policy makers consider all this before they pushed for the imposition of sanctions? Apparently not, for if they had, they would not have pursued them quite as vigorously in the first place. Surely, by now, they should know that Mr. Putin does not blink, and that he is a worthy adversary.

The truth remains that the U.S. needs Russia for its own foreign policy objectives a lot more than the reverse. That will continue to be true for the foreseeable future. U.S. lawmakers should perform a hard cost-benefit analysis before considering next steps. In agreeing to continue sanctions only for another six months, the EU appears already to have taken a step in that direction.

Russia Direct



41 Comments on "Russian Energy Sanctions have Backfired"

  1. Northwest Resident on Thu, 25th Jun 2015 5:43 pm 

    “When faced with an external threat, Russian nationalism goes into hyper-drive, and the average Russian circles the wagons in response.”

    Who can positively assert that this was not the intended result all along?

  2. BobInget on Thu, 25th Jun 2015 6:38 pm 

    Sanctions as viewed by “Russia Direct”
    http://www.russia-direct.org/opinion/how-western-energy-sanctions-russia-have-backfired

    Russia is setting up to assume the Saudi role as swing producer. Saudi Arabian Royals believe their positions are protected by US made Anti Missile Defense Systems

    Iraq falls in with Iran, Russia and Venezuela.
    Each preparing to grab (Asian)market share from collapsing KSA.

  3. Speculawyer on Thu, 25th Jun 2015 6:54 pm 

    So let me get this straight . . . the Ruble crashed, Russians are poorer, and the country is now in a Jingoist zeal following their corrupt dictator . . . and that is a victory for Russia?

    Sure.

  4. Makati1 on Thu, 25th Jun 2015 8:30 pm 

    Spec, it is a plus for Russia. All of the speculation in the article about future unity in the East, is like predicting the world economy in 5 years. Pure guess.

    China was aided by Russia in WW2 against Japan. There has been 70 years of peace between them. Three generations forget a lot of the past. I even expect Japan to join the China/Russian union in the future, but that’s another story.

    Money/economics makes strange bedfellows and causes some countries to go insane. From your comment, unless I misunderstand, it appears that your info source is the US MSM Ministry of Propaganda. Too bad. The real world is so much different.

  5. Jimmy on Thu, 25th Jun 2015 8:49 pm 

    As oil losses primacy and natural gas replaces it you will see less importance given to securing the seas, the easiest way to transport oil, and more importance given to securing land routes for pipelines, the easiest way to transport natural gas. The war in Syria is very much a fight over who will control the real estate that pipes the South Pars/North Dome gas to Europe.

    The big winners of the USA vs Taliban and the USA vs Iraq wars Iran and China. Iran is the regional winner. China is the global winner. Once rail lines and pipelines connect Berlin, Tehran, Moscow and Bejing you will see a continental empire emerge that will threaten US hedgemony. Avoiding that is USA’s main goal. The former super power now can only hope to play spoiler.

    http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/mackinder-revisited-will-china-establish-eurasian-empire-3-0/

  6. Davy on Thu, 25th Jun 2015 8:59 pm 

    Mak rewriting history again. It should read China was invaded by Russia in WW2 against Japan because Stalin wanted to advance his ambitions in the east.

    Try this future on for size Mak. Russia will need their NUKs when China collapses and the hungry Chinese hordes advances north into Russia like a locust swarm. Russia will regret their bed partner eventually when their eastern territories are annexed by a reality of a desperate population on the move.

  7. justeunperdant on Thu, 25th Jun 2015 9:18 pm 

    I started to buy stuff directly from China and getting it ship for free in Canada. Nothing expensive and below 10 $. I order all kind of things like safety razor , razor blades for safety razor, mini files. The site is called banggood.com. What surprised my the most, is the amount of comment and review written in Russia language. Another thing that surprised my since I started to buy directly from China is their willingness to do business and improve themselves. The link between China and Russian is real and much more stronger that some people think. The Chinese want to do business without interference . The Chinese and Russian do represent a threat to US and the Western world. Expect the US to try to break this link without success. This is a sample of China:

    http://www.banggood.com/CREE-XPE-Q5-600-Lumen-7W-Zoomable-LED-Flashlight-1×14500-p-907006.html
    second page has some Russian comments

    http://www.banggood.com/10Pcs-Razor-Hair-Cutting-Shaving-Sharper-Thinning-Knife-Blades-p-956638.html
    I have order 50 blades because I was so impressed with the quality and price. Canada is now a finished country that will become a third world country this year or next year.

    The western countries are rapidly becoming useless and have nothing to offer on the international trade level. Yes the action has now move into Asian countries.

  8. Davy on Thu, 25th Jun 2015 9:43 pm 

    Just, the world is connected in too many ways for China and Russia to decouple into a trade nirvana. I am wondering how China is going to replace the US and European market with 143MIL Russian one? Asia is an export oriented region and that has not changed and it likely won’t because the whole charade we call globalism is a sinking ship. You just don’t reorientation an economy in a few short years. You don’t just end trade relations and move them elsewhere quickly at the level of nations.

    What China and Russia are doing is realizing some beneficial bilateral trade. Wow, they had it before and now they have a little more. It is being advanced in multiple ways because of the Russian issues with the west but the degree of advancement is still insignificant compared to how you are portraying it. Just look over these numbers. China and Russia hope to raise trade to 100BIL in 2016. Current US/China trade 579BIL. Current European/China trade 592BIL. So Just, where is the trade revolution?

  9. justeunperdant on Thu, 25th Jun 2015 9:51 pm 

    I don’t want to go into a big debate about this Davy. I disagrees with you and I think China, Russia and Asia in general can decouple of the rest of the world with out too much pain.

    Canada, US and Europe cannot decouple because they need China goods to stay alive. Living in Canada we cannot decouple for Asia but Asia can decouple from us easily. Just my opinion. I have been wrong in the past I could be wrong again.

    China just need now to Internationalized his trade and financial system to the same level as the US and letting float their currency. Once this is done, they can become the next empire.

    Will there be enough energy to do that, I dont know, Time will tell.

  10. Davy on Thu, 25th Jun 2015 10:06 pm 

    Just, fair enough, but , you are speculating on a future not talking current facts. I see no evidence this can happens with a world at limits of growth. I also see China needing the west more than the west China because China needs markets to fuel its export industries.

    I will agree there is a diminishment of the west in favor of the east but nothing as significant as your view. China is a basket case of bad debt now in multiple areas. That is not the kind of strength that will allow China to dominate the world.

  11. Makati1 on Thu, 25th Jun 2015 11:20 pm 

    Ooops! should have been:

    http://thebricspost.com/russian-premier-extends-food-ban-on-us-eu-allies/#.VYzS-UZyPd5

    LOL.

  12. antaris on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 12:16 am 

    Just, China has always been about lie, cheat and steal. Canada does not need China. Send the Chinese back that have bought up Vancouver and whom don’t live here.Then children that live here may not have to move away.

  13. justeunperdant on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 12:49 am 

    Everybody lies. You must have had limited contact with humans beings.

    Canada is a dead country with no manufacturing. no innovation, we cannot build one capable nuclear ice breaker. Russian has 6. Canada is a finished society killed by political correctness where female emotion and well being are placed above the well being of future generation and the whole country.

    You know a country is finished when a guy get fired for this and this kind of non-important news make it to the evening for a whole week.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKkAL1AEam8

    Man are getting fed up with women and feminism. Especially in Canada where it is a feminist shit hole. I am so happy that young man are waking up and starting to make fun of the feminized media and matriarchal political country. You have my support for the Fuck her right in the pussy campaign. Canada is a matriarchal country where the needs, feeling and well being of women are put above an beyond the well being of the younger generation and well being of the whole country. Canada is now dying and is the laughing stock of the rest of the world. We have no manufacturing left and the economy of this country is dying. Go Canadian matriarchal political system where a man can lose his jobs if he does not obey the unwritten Matriarchal law put in places in this country. Canada matriarchy political system is now using federal, municipal, and governmental institutions to police young man behaviour. You don’t need more proofs that Canada is a now matriarchal country. Expect y young man to stop contributing to the future of this country and expect this country to go deeper into poverty and social chaos and dysfunction.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx2A7b50Xog&list=PLq6pbQUzThcTY-WwrJco2jtqifo7Vy_vh&index=7

    Either Canadian get their shit together or we got the way of extection.

  14. Davy on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 6:15 am 

    Just, come on man the global world is dying. Russia is a country with serious cultural issues. China is in serious cultural and ecological position with a population way into overshoot. http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/31478-china-s-communist-capitalist-ecological-apocalypse. You appear to me to be looking to someone or anyone as an alternative to Canada. You apparently dislike what your Canada has become so you are lashing out at her. You look towards Asia and Russia like they are an economic and cultural alternative. That is not a proper way to discuss the issues. I dislike what the US has become but I am not going to talk up China and Russia. There are very few countries I will talk up these days. We are all going down the sewer drain.

  15. Davy on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 6:22 am 

    Hey China and Russia lovers, tell me how this is good? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-26/china-plunges-most-2008-verge-bear-market-greek-drama-continues . Isn’t this just more of the same we are seeing in the west with greed, deception, corruption, manipulation, and unhealthy bubbles? You guys dismiss the bad news on your super heroes and crow the greatness. Give me a break.

  16. JuanP on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 9:23 am 

    This is a mess of an article and is probably best avoided. It contains truths, lies, half truths, half lies, falsehoods, misunderstandings, distortions, disinformation, propaganda, and what not.

    I can see some good intention on the author’s part to seek the truth and be balanced, and he/she gets my respect for that, but it is impossible to tell reality from fantasy in this article. Unfortunately, I don’t have time to address this. Pity, the subject fascinates me.

  17. antaris on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 9:37 am 

    Just, if you don’t like Canada, then fuck off and go back to whatever shit hole you came from.

  18. Boat on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 10:44 am 

    The only reason Russia wasn’t driven back into the sea when they invaded Crimea was a simple European dependence on Nat gas from Russia. The sanctions were a joke and just a small bore warning across the Russian bow. The idea the west protested much is silly.
    Protests against women? The very idea. You live in a cave?

  19. justeunperdant on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 10:51 am 

    With $21 Trillion, China’s Savers Are Set to Change the World

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-25/with-21-trillion-china-s-savers-are-set-to-change-the-world

  20. Davy on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 12:30 pm 

    Just, I admit China is a great economic power. Tell me this Just, are those China savers going to change the world for the better or try to consume it away. They are no different from the west just 1.4BIL of them ready to enjoy a new found prosperity.

    This is nothing to crow about and everything to worry about. Yet, we are probably cook, fried, and running on empty so let’s party like no tomorrow since there is no tomorrow.

  21. dissident on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 7:55 pm 

    So Bout, the 64% of Crimea’s population who are ethnic Russians have no say, eh? You democracy lover you, hypocrite. I see you cherish Khruschev and other commie tyrants and their “gifts”. Kiev had no authority over Crimea. Ever.

  22. Apneaman on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 8:16 pm 

    Oh yeah those Chinese nationals are big savers alright.

    Why is a Richmond B.C. neighbourhood with many expensive mansions also one of the city’s ‘poorest’?

    “More than six out of 10 Richmond residents were born outside the country, the highest rate of any city in the country. If many people who live in luxury Richmond houses are reporting low incomes to Revenue Canada, Halsey-Brandt is among those worried it means many are not paying their fair share of taxes for social services.”

    “If a family moves here, but the head of the family goes back to China or East Asia to make money, that means Richmond often ends up with the spouse and children. That family is not going to declare earning much money in Canada,” said Lo.

    http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/why-is-richmond-neighbourhood-with-many-expensive-mansions-also-one-of-the-citys-poorest

  23. Makati1 on Fri, 26th Jun 2015 8:45 pm 

    The US/Canada is a refugee haven because of it’s financial/social benefits, nothing else. You always get people who want to game the system in any country.

    TPTB wants the US/Canada/EU to fail and become 3rd world or worse. They cannot move their One World Plan forward until equality is everywhere. And think about that.

    “WASHINGTON, D.C. — The median annual household income worldwide is $9,733, and the median per-capita household income is $2,920, according to new Gallup metrics.” *

    Many rich Chinese are moving to Canada/US and buying expensive homes as a hedge against China’s financial problems. They will soon see that there is no haven for the rich. Then the fun begins.

    * http://www.gallup.com/poll/166211/worldwide-median-household-income-000.aspx

    The advantage to living in a 3rd world island country is that few, if any, are trying to get there illegally, making it easy to control immigration.

  24. Boat on Sat, 27th Jun 2015 2:08 am 

    disseident

    Of course I love democracy. Those who don’t must love being controlled by others. And the 64% of Russians in Crimea, did they get to vote the
    Russians in? Only the Ukrainian should decide their own destiny, not Russia, Europe or the US. That’s how we think in the states. Individual freedom trumps any government or institution.

  25. GregT on Sat, 27th Jun 2015 2:52 am 

    Boat,

    Honestly? You believe that you live in a democracy? Give your head a shake buddy. You live in a corporatist fascist state, run by your controllers, for your controllers. Your freedom was lost long before you were even born. Keep drinking the kool aid, your owners love people like you.

  26. Apneaman on Sat, 27th Jun 2015 2:53 am 

    Leaky boat, it’s not 1955 anymore and you do not live in a democracy. You don’t even have a fucking clue as to how things work in your own country let alone in Europe. Go back to listening to Hannity or Limbaugh or whatever other cartoon characters it is that informs you.

  27. Boat on Sat, 27th Jun 2015 3:27 am 

    Can you hop on a boat or plane or car and just take off? Buy anything you want and relocate if the whim suits you? If not I would suggest you need new controllers.

  28. Makati1 on Sat, 27th Jun 2015 7:33 am 

    Boat, you only think you can do those things. Try doing it when you are broke and have no credit. Try leaving the US without a passport. You have to have government ‘papers’ to go to Canada or Mexico now. I could go to the Bahamas with only a driver’s license in the 60s. My friends could come to the stairs of the plane to say goodbye, when I traveled. Now you cannot get close to the plane or even the waiting area unless you have a valid ticket and have been X-rayed and searched at least once, and maybe several times, before boarding.

    Then, when you get back, you are fingerprinted and photographed after your ‘security’ search. If you visited a ‘suspicious’ country, you are questioned like a felon suspect. Been there, done that every year when they see that I had been to Dubai in 2006. And they already have the answers on their computer screen. Everything you have done or places you have been that require ID. Even where you work.

    The US will soon require those ‘security’ measures everywhere. Even to get on a bus or into a stadium. Have you tried to get into a federal government building lately? Freedom? You do not see the high walls around you. Americans have no idea what’s coming…

  29. Davy on Sat, 27th Jun 2015 8:52 am 

    Mak, you are such a mouthy buffoon. What happens in the US with security is common around the globe especially with your beloved superhero countries China and Russia.

    Please, Mak, this is really off the wall “The US will soon require those ‘security’ measures everywhere. Even to get on a bus or into a stadium.” Come on get real Mak. Get out of that 10th floor slum hole you are in and get some fresh air your getting loony.

  30. justeunperdant on Sat, 27th Jun 2015 10:11 am 

    Commenting is a useless form of communication and simple does not work. This is why you see less and less people commenting on blog, youtube, newspaper web site. Sadly, because of the internet and electronic media people don’t know how to communicate face to face and are afraid of other people. Always the same people commenting on blog over and over. I have to stop commenting before I become one of them

  31. joe on Sat, 27th Jun 2015 10:47 am 

    Russia has done the only thing it really needed to do, keep the country going by paying for the government, and the Russian people don’t care about the government, they love their own people, they have national pride but they are not interested in things like honest government the way Americans are. They expect bad government and they get it and that’s Ok as long as they are left alone. Some in Russia want to live in a modern model western liberal paradise, but it’s a fantasy, in the west the rich steal so much and the government maintains higher living standards by globalising to Asia and supporting despots in China who used to be in government with Chairman Mao. They talk about Assad, but, how many died in Tienamen square we will never know, that’s where you get your cheap goods from. Think about it.

  32. Davy on Sat, 27th Jun 2015 11:02 am 

    Just, you got any better ideas for your perfect communication world? Be glad you have electronic media to comment on. When and if a collapse comes we may not have a reliable internet or other electronic media on demand 24/7/365. We are far too comfortable that we are always going to have light switches that work and Wi-Fi.

    I invest allot of time and effort as does others do commenting here. We are at a critical time in history that warrants participation. I am spilling my guts in an attempt to assist those who may be interested in doom and prep. I admit to blog battles with some numb nuts and nutter but that is all part of the fun. Chill out and be happy friend. You have contributed some good material. Just because I disagree with you does not mean I do not read it and evaluate it from your viewpoint.

  33. justeunperdant on Sat, 27th Jun 2015 12:04 pm 

    I am not upset at young people and don’t hate young people. I am just pointing out some things

    Young people of today have been raised in captivity ( like the beautiful mouse) by parents that were raised in captivity too. Very few young people (or young mouses) have any knowledge of how to live in nature. Like the beautiful mouse that know where the food is, young people know that money buy food but they don’t understand how nature produce food, how to see fertile land, what weeds are edible ( if there is such a thing a weed in nature). You have no knowledge of the nature and don’t understand what are the real principle of life. This also applied to your parents that were raised in captivity. Same as the beautiful mouse that lived in captivity don’t understand how to protect itself from predator.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z760XNy4VM

    Everything young people have been told are a lies. Internet revolution is a lie, it has in fact isolated people more. Technological progress is a lie too, it created more polution, used more energy and created more complexes fragile systems.

    What you are to know is really simple:

    -nature seems to obey law of thermodynamics : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nh71u8LycKc

    – technological progress is a lie and generate more complexity and less return ( Joseph Tainter and David Korowicz) :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0R09YzyuCI
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQaw2fix3q0

    – human behaviours can be explain by the need to keep your genes alive (breeding): greed, violence, ..

    – Energy created a utopia society that changed human behaviour (John Calhou) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z760XNy4VM

    All the rest, money,debt, political system, … are all a distraction and don’t help solving the problems in any way.

    I wish all you good luck. I am checking of out.

  34. Davy on Sat, 27th Jun 2015 12:25 pm 

    Good points Just. I highly recommend Korwicz you referenced. He gives some great insight into dynamics systems in relation to a global collapse.

    Anyway, Just, don’t be afraid to check back with us. I am all for you going offline. I have often said we are all going offline soon so that is why I am here now. This vast 24/7/365 net as we know it is likely going to be over soon enough. The grid and net are likely going to destabilize eventually. At a minimum reliability will be going down and at a maximum we will have outages and failures until the functionality we know today is gone. Hopefully our snail mail will still work.

  35. Boat on Sun, 28th Jun 2015 8:00 am 

    Makati, of course the beat goes on. All this talk about WWIII and Russia was nuts. Business always trumps. I called the response to Crimea small bore as in very insignificant. Europe and the US wants Russia to be part of the trading world. It’s all about making money for everyone. They had to do something though to save face. Fact is Europe got pushed around but wasn’t willing to back Russia down.

  36. Makati1 on Sun, 28th Jun 2015 7:39 pm 

    Boat, I can see that you have graduated from the Ministry of Propaganda’s indoctrination. You no longer think for yourself or have the ability. Congrats! You are now one of the sheeple. Go back to your regularly scheduled programming.

    BTW: Business used to ‘always trump’ but we don’t live in that world anymore. Western Capitalism is dying, along with the energy sources that created it in the first place. All that is happening now is a last gasp power grab as they try to stave off collapse and the end of their party. Most empires have ended in war. And there are still about 20,000 nukes laying around waiting to be used. DC insanity will use them, wait and see.

  37. Davy on Mon, 29th Jun 2015 1:43 am 

    Mak said “Western Capitalism is dying” Mak does that mean Eastern capitalism is alive and well? If so, that means another 620 Chinese coal fired plants. That is a wonderful thought along with all the other poisons capitalism brings. I think you are the graduate of your own twisted Mak’s ministry of propaganda. I hope Western Capitalism is dying but nothing could be worse than the eastern variety metastasizing currently.in Asia.

    As for NUK’s, DC scares me a little bit more than Russia that has the biggest stockpile in the world and China who NUK program is proliferating. Mak, if you are going to bash the west show more sophistication please. You make yourself look like an idiot comparing the west to the east that is just as bad and dying too.

  38. Amvet on Mon, 29th Jun 2015 12:58 pm 

    Clearly our sanctions have caused pain in Russia. Some Russians lost their jobs. Some businesses went bankrupt. (Americans tend to overlook this negative PR that we do that damages our businesses.)

    Look at Europe. The sanctions and counter sanctions have cost Europe 9 billion Euros in agriculture exports, 400,000 jobs in Switzerland and 2.5 million jobs in all of Europe. Poor Greece lost their agricultural exports and their Russian tourists.

    Russia-Asia: Relations are good and now that the Pentagon has declared both enemies, they will avoid any conflict with each other. China is wisely using their massive reserve of cash to help countries with infrastructure grants or loans and trading dollars for hard assets. We do war. They do business.

  39. Amvet on Mon, 29th Jun 2015 1:14 pm 

    Davy, The east is not dying. In the US we are cranking out University graduates in a wide variety of economically “useless studies”. The Chinese and Russians are learning engineering,the sciences, business, arts, languages, and economics. They are making top grades in the best universities in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Australia. Asians think long term, for example, I just talked to two Chinese students in Prague who were studying the Czech language and economics to prepare for foreign service. Uncle Ho sent thousands of Vietnamese to East Germany for high school, university, and tech schools. I know some of these. They speak perfect German and are well educated.

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