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Page added on March 2, 2015
Middle East in Total Disarray
The Arab world is rife with political turmoil and violence. The Sunni Muslim Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and other jihadi terrorists are continuing their savagery within its boundaries, and Iran’s theocratic terrorist rulers are still exporting and/or solidifying their brand of the Shiite Muslim Islamic Revolution to Arab countries and territories. And the Obama administration appears unable or unwilling to effectively deal with each emerging crisis there.
The competing goals of Sunni and Shiite jihadists are to dominate the Arab world, and their forces and surrogates are engaged in nasty fights for supremacy throughout the region. The area they seek to control generally spans 21 Middle East and North Africa countries as well as territories under Palestinian control in Gaza and the West Bank. Its riches include 364 million people, the world’s largest known oil and gas reserves which fuel developed world economies, and strategic waterways where the petroleum-based commerce flows. About 92 percent of the Arab World population is Muslim (336 million), of which 87 percent are Sunni Muslim and 13 percent Shiite Muslim.
In 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama spoke in Cairo, Egypt and promised the Arab and greater Muslim world a ‘new beginning’ in relations with the United States. However, hopefulness turned into hopelessness for tens of millions of Arab world residents after the speech and Arab Spring which followed. Consider the current state of affairs:
- Freedom House –a non-profit global freedom watchdog – ranked Middle East and North Africa countries (e.g., most of the Arab world) in 2015 as the world’s most freedom-less area with only Tunisia granting citizens political rights and civil liberties to qualify as a free nation.
- Freedom House also reported that not one Arab country or territory provided the necessary legal environment, political influences, and economic conditions to guarantee a truly free press.
- The U.S. State Department reports that 29 of 59 groups on its Foreign Terrorist Organization List have gestated and operate in Arab countries and territories, all of which endanger local residents, Israel, and U.S. citizens and security interests. Twelve FTO’s were added during Obama’s presidency.
- The U.S. State Department reports that three of four designated state sponsors of terror – Iran, Syria, and Sudan – apply their deadly trade in Arab countries. One of them, Iran, has an illegal nuclear weapons development program.
- Four Arab states and one territory – Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza– are heavily dependent on Iran’s terrorist leaders for their governments’ survival.
- Five Arab countries – Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen – are either failed states or don’t exercise sovereignty over their boundaries.
- The average annual income of Arab world residents is $9,700, which is 26 percent below the global average of $13,100, with a wide income disparity between rich nations like Qatar and poor nations like Somalia.
The persons most responsible for perpetuating these conditions are an assortment of Islamic terror groups and extremists and authoritarian leaders. However, the Middle East and North African landscape is littered with the remnants of dubious Obama administration decisions that contributed to them ranging from the premature withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq; the Syrian ‘redline;’ the Libyan military misadventure; calling ISIS a junior al-Qaeda varsity team; unwillingness to admit jihadi terrorists are part of Islam; refusal to support Iran’s peaceful Green Revolutionaries, and thinking Iran’s terrorist state can be part of any peaceful Arab world solution.
Muslims consider the dominion of Islam as the central pillar of their global-domination political program. Sunnis and Shiites disagree sharply on which of them, and who, should lead. They agree that the prime basis of governance and administration of justice should be Islamic (Shariah) law as enunciated in the Koran and traditions of Muhammad, and further elaborated by classical Muslim legists.
The global Muslim population contains Islamists and jihadists. An Islamist is any Muslim who wants to impose and enforce Shariah – whether by violent or nonviolent means. A jihadist is an Islamic terrorist.
Shariah law totally subordinates women and mandates many other human rights violations, such as relegating non-Muslim minorities to a much lower legal status than Muslims and dispensing cruel and unusual punishment. It also rejects freedom of speech and conscience and mandates aggressive jihad until the world is brought under Islamic hegemony.
In forging a path to some kind of durable regional peace, it is not only important to understand the aforementioned Arab world problems and radical Islamic-driven terrorism but to effectively do something about them. Egypt’s Muslim President, Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, showed the way by removing the repressive Muslim Brothers from power during a popular revolution, publicly meeting with non-Muslims being persecuted by the various jihadists, and calling on clerics to reform Islam by eliminating rhetoric that fosters violence.
The Arab world is the epicenter of a global jihadist threat, and it is time for the U.S. and its allies, regional and otherwise, to also act diplomatically, economically, and militarily if necessary against all of those jihadist forces – including ISIS and Iran – operating there who are using violence and Shariah to acquire and retain power. However, seeking to degrade and defeat the Sunni Muslim jihadist brand while leaving the Shiite Muslim jihadist brand intact, as the U.S. is currently doing, will only perpetuate problems for those Arabs and others who genuinely seek a better life and to live in freedom.
The time for decisive and effective action is now. Regional and world peace depends on it.
Fred Gedrich is a foreign policy and national security analyst and served in the U.S. departments of Defense and State.
7 Comments on "Middle East in Total Disarray"
Plantagenet on Mon, 2nd Mar 2015 9:44 pm
Of course the ME is in a shambles. Obama lied about his commitment to topple Assad, letting the catastrophric civil war simmer in Syria for years. Then he pulled US troops out Iraq, allowing ISIS to come into the power vacuum he left in Iraq. Obama bombed and destroyed the government of Libya, leaving a power vacuum that is now occupied by ISIS. Obama backed the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt, leading to chaos there. And Obama droned and bombed Yemen, and now the government has collapsed there.
GregT on Mon, 2nd Mar 2015 9:50 pm
“About 92 percent of the Arab World population is Muslim (336 million), of which 87 percent are Sunni Muslim and 13 percent Shiite Muslim.”
So let’s just go in there and overthrow the Sunni governments, supply the Shia minority with weapons and training, and sit back and watch the fireworks. Sounds like a great way to plunge the entire region into violence and bloodshed.
“They agree that the prime basis of governance and administration of justice should be Islamic (Shariah) law as enunciated in the Koran and traditions of Muhammad, and further elaborated by classical Muslim legists.”
If THEY agree with Shariah law then THEY have the right to rule themselves in the manner that THEY believe to be righteous. WE have no right to impose OUR beliefs on THEM.
“An Islamist is any Muslim who wants to impose and enforce Shariah – whether by violent or nonviolent means. A jihadist is an Islamic terrorist.”
Yet one more propagandist that has no clue at all as to what the word Jihad means. The misinformation is sickening.
apneaman on Mon, 2nd Mar 2015 10:05 pm
So little Planter all of Americas problems
in the ME started with Obama? No other context? No decades long back story? Carter doctrine? Israeli lobby? MIC?
Dave T on Mon, 2nd Mar 2015 10:12 pm
One third of the planets oil comes out of the middle east. Land based extraction at that. Am I a nihilist to point this out and come to the conclusion that not only everyone knows this, but, this is what the fighting and disarray is all about at its core? He who owns the black gold rules.
GregT on Mon, 2nd Mar 2015 10:27 pm
“He who owns the black gold rules.”
The black gold is going to run out Dave, and if it doesn’t run out soon enough, the planet faces a mass extinction event.
Maybe now would be a good time to reign in the globalists, before there is no more globe worth ruling over? Just a thought.
Richard Ralph Roehl on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 3:10 am
Eventually the Sunni wahabbists of ISIS will slaughter (in the name of Allahh) a large percentage of the Muslim Shite population to create a North African caliphate… perched to invade Europe and officially institute Sharia law in London-STAN, Paris-STAN and Rome.
Then onto Los Angeles… where they’ll behead leftist feminists… and ‘gay mafiahh’ acolytes in West Hollywood. Heh! Heh! Heh!
Old Coyote Knose… ewe-folks shall reap what ewe-folks have sown!
Davy on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 5:39 am
Folks, I know current event matter. BAU is still alive and kicking. Global BAU needs oil. There are no arguments to that and zero viable substitution options for oil. We also know that the relationship between BAU and its foundational resource is delicate. We are now likely in diminishing returns and limits of growth. Our foundational commodity is front stage and center with POD & ETP.
In the Middle East one could apply the POD to the political strife as above ground. The bellow ground has aging super giant field near an end from water cut. We could also say ETP of ME oil is deteriorating because of the reliance of oil to fund the social side of the equation. Oils economic value to the economy is depleting so the social cost are not being covered as needed to provide stability. The ETP of depletion from decades of oil production is increasing but not near as bad as the west with its reliance on unconventional fields. That is a lonely plus for the ME.
Folks this adds up to a shit storm of problems and predicaments. Add to this religious strife and the desire for shariah law by these people. Nothing wrong with self-determination but shariah law does not address several modern issues especially overpopulation. The elephant in the room in the ME is overpopulation and carrying capacity breach of food, water, and a harsh climate. I have read AGW is going to strike this region hard.
BAU has a likely shelf life of a decade per POD & ETP. Meat eating black swans circle and can strike any moment. The most visible birds of prey are the debt choked financial system, a new cold war, and budding trade war mentality. BAU is fragile and must grow. Confidence must be maintained for liquidity of vast JIT production and global distribution. The complexity of BAU is total in its delocalization of all locals. Every one of us on this forum is naked to this delocalization even if you have a doomsted. This nakedness of everyone is because everyone whether subsistence or not is surrounded by huge populations generally. Even if you are in an advantageous location the potential of migrations into your habitable area is high. Those close to mega urban areas are particularly at risk.
We have little idea how this unravel of BAU will shake out. Time frames are uncertain and severity of the descent uncertain. Historical references are poor because never before has a population been so far in overshoot globally in a destroyed global ecosystem. Yet, this can’t end well just by the fact of severe overpopulation and the depletion of a foundation commodity oil and the knock on effect of complexity loss. Death is disruptive and expensive. We need excess deaths of 200MIL a year on average for a generation to get to a viable carrying capacity ex FF.
I would argue Asia and the ME are in the worst possible position from the overshoot of overpopulation. The west with pockets of overpopulation but broadly overshoot of consumption. No region is safe nor is their certainty of refuge. The birds of prey are circling everywhere.
All areas and especially the ME are in danger of a destructive series of wars for remaining vital BAU resources. NUK war is an every possible scenario for the global but especially in the ME. These fanatical people will use these weapons if allowed. The west is less fanatical and more material. People that are materialistic are loath about destroying the treasure. The fanatics of the ME just want to kill the adversary in any way possible. In a sense this is the worst kind of war with brother killing brother and all brothers destroying their homeland in a destructive cycle of violence. The ME has a shelf life along with BAU and the depletion of BAU’s foundational commodity. There is no future for the ME especially from overpopulation, harsh climate and food and water carrying capacity breach. If an apocalypse is in the cards it will likely start in the ME.