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Page added on December 11, 2017
Kunstler: Abracadabra
And so, as they say in the horror movies, it begins…! The unwinding of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Such an esoteric concept! Is there one in ten thousand of the millions of people who sit at desks all day long from sea to shining sea who have a clue how this works? Or what its relationship is to the real world?
I confess, my understanding of it is incomplete and schematic at best — in the way that my understanding of a Las Vegas magic act might be. All the flash and dazzle conceals the magician’s misdirection. The magician is either a scary supernatural being or a magnificent fraud. Anyway, the audience ‘out there’ for the Federal Reserve’s magic act — x-million people preoccupied by their futures slipping away, their cars falling apart, their kid’s $53,000 college loan burden, or the $6,000 bill they just received for going to the emergency room with a cut finger — wouldn’t give a good goddamn even if they knew the Fed’s magic show was going on.
So, the Fed has this thing called a balance sheet, which is actually a computer file, filled with entries that denote securities that it holds. These securities, mostly US government bonds of various categories and bundles of mortgages wrangled together by the mysterious government-sponsored entity called Freddie Mac, represent about $4.5 trillion in debt. They’re IOUs that supposedly pay interest for a set number of years. When that term of years expires, the Fed gets back the money it loaned, which is called the principal. Ahhhh, here’s the cute part!
You see, the money that the Fed loaned to the US government (in exchange for a bond) was never there in the first place. The Fed prestidigitated it out of an alternate universe. They gave this money to a “primary dealer” bank in exchange for the bond, which the bank abracadabraed up for the US Treasury. Well, not really. In fact, the Fed just made a notation on the bank’s “reserve” account that the money from the alternate universe appeared there. Somehow that money was sent via a virtual pneumatic tube to the US Treasury, where it was used to pay for drones to blow up Yemeni wedding parties, and for the Secret Service to visit pole dancing bars when the president traveled to foreign lands.
Here’s the fun part. The Fed announces that it is going to shed this nasty debt, at about $10 billion worth a month starting this past October. Their stated goal is to reach an ultimate wind-down velocity of $50 billion a month (cue laugh track). If they ever get there (cue laugh track) it would take 20 years to complete the wind-down. The chance of that happening is about the same as the chance that Janet Yellen will come down your chimney on December 24 with a sack-full of chocolate Bitcoins. But never mind the long view for the moment.
One way they plan to accomplish this feat is to “roll off” the bonds. That is, when the bonds mature — i.e. come to the end of their term — they will cease to exist. Poof! Wait a minute! When a bond matures, the issuer has to send the principal back to the lender. After all, the Fed lent the US Treasury X-billion dollars, the US Treasury paid interest on the loan for X-years, and now it has to fork over the full value of the loan (hopefully in dollars that have magically inflated over the years and are now worth less than when they were borrowed — another magic trick!). But that doesn’t happen.
Instead, when the theoretical principal is returned to the Fed, the Fed disappears the money, like the girl in a bikini onstage who enters the magician’s sacred box and vanishes. Now you see her, now you don’t. The explanation, of course, might be that the money was never really there in the first place, so it makes sense to fire it back to the alternative universe it came from. Well, uh, I guess….
The catch is: for a while it was here on earth and folks were doing stuff with it, such as the aforementioned drone strikes and pole dancers. Not only that, but the “primary dealer” banks were allowed to loan out ten times the reserve minimum denoted on their Fed accounts for participating in the scheme. Who did they lend all that money to? Apparently, a lot of it went to corporations who borrowed it at ultra-low interest rates in order to buy back their own stock, which paid dividends way higher than the interest rate they borrowed at to buy the stuff, and which also pumped up the share value of the stocks, which also happened to make the executives of the corporations way richer in terms of their stock options and bonuses (awarded for boosting the share value of the stock!).
And so, shazzam: I give you the one-percent! And a bankrupt United States of America.
And don’t even ask about all those bundles of janky Freddie Mac mortgages fobbed off on the Fed. The reason they did that in the first place was because those mortgages weren’t being paid off, and the banks and insurance companies that held them were choking to death on them. So they parked them in a crawl space under the Fed’s Eccles Building in Washington, hoping they would just turn to compost And guess what: they’re no more valuable now then they were then. File that one under Necrophilia.
36 Comments on "Kunstler: Abracadabra"
Sissyfuss on Mon, 11th Dec 2017 2:11 pm
It’s amazing how overshoot can appear in so many guises and systems and never be recognized as such.
Makati1 on Mon, 11th Dec 2017 5:23 pm
We live in a world of lies. And the biggest liar is the US government. Most of the serfs have no idea how close to collapse/death they are or how ‘the system’ is bleeding them to extinction. The only good news is that the bleeders (1%ers) will die with them. Painfully, I hope.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 11th Dec 2017 5:35 pm
Madkat
That was very well said..we are living in an economic depression statically speaking. And not only are people unaware they actually think the economy is doing great…You have to stand in awe of the media brainwashing. And look Hitler and the Nazi’s rose to power during the original Great Depression and now we have the Alt right and Nazi’s and extremist Trump rise to power again..History repeats..Imagine that? Yet no American’s can connect the dots..
jh wyoming on Mon, 11th Dec 2017 6:27 pm
Welcome to a game of three shell Monty. Guess which one it’s under, before we make this made up dough disappear. Now it’s magically here and you can use it to buy stuff, then presto it disappears so no has to know it was never really here in the first place.
What’s so uncanny about all this, is if we try to pull some kind of flim flam with USD’s we get tossed in the stockade, but the govt. along with the banks can make this stuff up willy nilly until the cows are coming home and it’s all perfectly legal.
I just wonder for how long those type of shenanigans can go on without so much as a peep from whomever might have the gall to protest such actions. Heck, I mean why not just print up 1 trillion dollar giant coins and pay off the national debt. I can see someone in charge saying, “These new trillion dollar coins are backed by the US treasury.” Ah, with what, a three shell Monty game?
onlooker on Mon, 11th Dec 2017 6:34 pm
All the above comments spot on. It is all one BIG LIE AND FANTASY. And the they’re is Mother Nature or if you wish truth/reality
Apneaman on Mon, 11th Dec 2017 6:55 pm
MASTERMIND, there are plenty of Americans who see it.
Here is one of the best of them. You can tell within the first few minutes that he gets it.
Chris Hedges “Fascism in the Age of Trump”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMYjroVIDLA&t=168s
Apneaman on Mon, 11th Dec 2017 6:55 pm
Abracadabra….I wanna reach out and grab ya.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0yRuQTTbFM
Cloggie on Mon, 11th Dec 2017 10:30 pm
Oh the glory of Brexit! European military and global intervention force taking shape:
https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-eu-to-unveil-military-pact-projects/
http://www.dw.com/en/twenty-five-eu-states-sign-pesco-defense-pact/a-41741828
Cloggie on Mon, 11th Dec 2017 11:13 pm
“Here is one of the best of them. You can tell within the first few minutes that he gets it.
Chris Hedges “Fascism in the Age of Trump””
Haha, priceless, watched ever minute of it. Equally good as that McCoy link of yours, some time ago.
Jesus freak Hedges sums it all up, the North-American despair. He is even honoust about the US empire, the decline of the dollar, he sees the rise of China coming and like for all Americans, Europe simply doesn’t exist, which is fine. Let them lock horns with China instead, the best thing that could happen to Europe and Russia.
What this idiot Hedges and his New England NE seaboard libtard audience refuses to see is that THEY THEMSELVES embody the decline of the US, the hard white left. They refuse to see that they committed demographic suicide with their unreciproked love for every darkie they can lay their hands on and that they created the conditions for the coming confrontation between the self-styled Good People such as themselves and the “Fascists” a la Trump. These people will pick up arms, ally themselves with the coloureds and will fight the Natzis, who will fight back. The Good People will fight for their communist racial egalitarian utopia. The result will be the breakup of the country, which is good for the rest of the world.
Theedrich on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 3:06 am
What used to be America is gone. All that is left is a massive Ponzi scheme of fantasies and willfully accepted lies. “Go, go, go, said the bird: human kind cannot bear very much reality” (T. S. Eliot). The remainder is held in place by a massive military complex threatening Ragnarök and a hollowed-out financial system based on “the full faith and credit of the United States.”
We are reaching what Gail Tverberg, borrowing a phrase from Aleks Udris, refers to as the “Coffin Corner,” a point of maximum altitude beyond which jet aircraft can fly no higher and the risk of death exceeds the benefits of attempting to do so.
The U.S. is not alone in this lose-lose predicament. As Gail notes, “The economic ‘atmosphere’ becomes thinner and thinner, when oil prices rise above an inflation-adjusted price of $20 per barrel.” Yet increased (unpayable) debt and technological complexity (à la Tainter) are based on the idea that this “atmosphere” (i.e., the oil-based global economy) will never get too thin (unprofitable to produce because non-techie worker-consumers get too poor to buy things). Economists’ charts are math-based, i.e., abstract and unrelated to reality. Thus diminishing returns never appear in such charts, which are nevertheless used to promote certain political policies which are claimed to promise growth.
So governments (and above all the U.S. government) play a game of musical chairs with smoke and mirrors (e.g., QE, Kunstler’s “abracadabra”) to keep the merry-go-round going. But as Gail says, “The affordability issue, of course, arises because energy supply is not rising quickly enough because (at over $20 per barrel), it is too expensive to be truly affordable. The ‘atmosphere is too thin’ at today’s high cost of energy extraction.”
And global growth is now slowing below the threshold needed to pay interest on national debt here and elsewhere. Her conclusion is that “A solution that cuts out the oil exporters is a problem for an economy dependent on oil. Any solution that cuts out the workers is a problem, partly because businesses need workers as consumers, and partly because governments need workers as taxpayers.”
The aim of the political psywar on the citizenry is to distract the mushrooms from the fact that physical limits are being reached globally. As ever more large businesses go bankrupt or move to slave-labor countries, Yankee politicians are reduced to emotional appeals (“sex-obsessed, rich and evil White men are preying on the defenseless weaker sex”; “racism”; “xenophobia”; “inequality”; “too many Negroes in prison”; etc., etc.). But nature is oblivious to political drivel. The air is becoming too thin for continued American world control. And as the White genosuicidism demanded by the elites becomes more and more obvious to Whites themselves, the latter may actually decide to do something about it. Which would mean the end of the current illuminati-controlled overlordship.
Makati1 on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 3:38 am
In other words Theedrich, the end of the world as we know it. Or, at least, the end of the lifestyle we of the 1st world have grown up with. So be it. Whatever keeps the nukes from flying is better then the alternative.
Makati1 on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 6:07 am
“We are seeing the results in economic stagnation, the takeover of the nation’s institutions by thieves and tyrants, the decline of U.S. power in the world, and the dizzying array of stories of personal corruption among the nation’s leaders in all walks of life.
The fall of today’s political and cultural icons cannot arrive too soon.”
https://spectator.org/americas-decline-and-the-neglect-of-luthers-principles-of-liberty/
“With the nation’s news dominated by reports of political corruption (most recently, the Clintons’ apparent use of “pay to play” schemes during Hillary Clinton’s tenure as U.S. secretary of state), sexual harassment scandals pandemic among the nation’s elites, extreme vulgarization of political speech and the common culture, riots against freedom of speech on the nation’s college campuses, paralyzing partisanship in Congress, death threats and open assassination attempts against government leaders and police officers, and the rest of the dismaying parade of moral shortcomings on display among the nation’s leaders in all walks of life, it appears that we are in the midst of a war not just between political and cultural factions, but over the very definition of our civilization.”
The American civilization that is, Not that of the rest of the world. The US is Number One in this area of collapse and immorality.
Davy on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 6:52 am
China is in a difficult position of an economic Ponzi arrangement with much of its “economy of bubbles” being in the cross hairs of the officials attempts at controlling the excesses that all Ponzi/bubbles eventually exhibit. This means the mind boggling credit stimuluses from China over the last few years will likely end or be made dysfunctional. We are going to see the dysfunction of trying to maintain a Ponzi/bubble and reform it. This is a classic cake and eat it trap. This is never possible because Ponzi/bubble must grow or they collapse in on themselves.
The good news for the global economy is this will be a process. The global economy is now a managed economy. The rich are being made richer at the expense of the poor. The rich will continue to do this until they can’t. This situation is across the board in every nation. Every nation is involved with economic repression and easing of some sort that is little more than a Ponzi wealth transfer scheme.
The US may be tightening but it will loosen up elsewhere like tax cuts. Europe is a never ending charade of easing. Japan is hopeless. China is now going to see the biggest rebalance in man’s history and it is going to be ugly. It may take the global economy down with it but this will likely take time because the Chinese economy is a hybrid communist/capitalist economy. They are so big that they are too big to fail so the entire world is invested in them to survive.
“Warning From The World’s Biggest Shipping Line On Outlook for World Trade”
https://tinyurl.com/ya7s5ynt (just for you grehg)
“The optimism on world trade didn’t last very long. It was only late September when the WTO issued a “strong upward revision” to their estimate for 2017 world trade. WTO economists raised their forecast to 3.6% from 2.4%, which was at the top end of the previous 1.8-3.6% range. This marked a sharp acceleration from the 1.3% growth in 2016. The IMF’s forecast for 2017 world trade, also made in September, was even higher at 4.2%. Now the Copenhagen-based Maersk, the world’s number one container shipping company, is sounding a warning about softer demand and downward pressure on freight rates.”
“Currently, both the WTO and the IMF are expecting growth in world trade to remain buoyant in 2018. The former is projecting growth of 4.0% and the latter 3.6% with a range of 3.2-3.6%. 2017 will be the first year since 2014 when trade growth has exceeded global GDP growth. Based on the current IMF forecasts, the two will be approximately equal next year. However, the weakness flagged by Maersk, Drewry and others suggests that trade could, once again, act as a drag on global growth as we move into 2018.”
JuanP on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 9:17 am
Thanks for the Hedges link, Apneaman. I really liked watching it. I loved his closing sentence “Resistance to radical evil is the pinnacle of human existence.”
Apneaman on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 10:12 am
JuanP, you are welcome, sir.
My favorite Hedges quote:
“I do not fight fascists because I will win. I fight fascists because they are fascists”
Obviously, Hedges believes the fall is unavoidable. What he is purposing is something of a managed retreat to ease the pain & suffering.
He’s trying to organize the somewhat rational Americans which makes him a threat the establishment and true believers of the competing monkey politic tribes.
I don’t envision him having too much success since the insanity is only ratcheting up in the US. Absurd is an understatement.
I just spent a few days at mom’s putting up her tree & other chores and of course she has that screeching, hysterical CNN & MSMBC with motor mouth Rachel Maddow on all day. She rarely watches FOX News, but it’s the same shit different team.
It’s like listening to a hugely dysfunctional alcoholic family at a family reunion. With each drink they get stupider and they were already shit-faced hours ago.
The latest is a big fight over little girl groping uncle Roy Moore.
Here’s the Roy Moore song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0jMPI_pUec
GregT on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 4:29 pm
Yes, thanks for linking Hedges’ speech Apnea. Brilliant man.
Cloggie on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 4:42 pm
“I don’t envision him having too much success since the insanity is only ratcheting up in the US. Absurd is an understatement.”
The absurdity lies with the architects of the multicultural society, namely to ignore history and identity and press ahead with creating the disaster that is now immanent.
Antius on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 5:41 pm
‘So governments (and above all the U.S. government) play a game of musical chairs with smoke and mirrors (e.g., QE, Kunstler’s “abracadabra”) to keep the merry-go-round going. But as Gail says, “The affordability issue, of course, arises because energy supply is not rising quickly enough because (at over $20 per barrel), it is too expensive to be truly affordable. The ‘atmosphere is too thin’ at today’s high cost of energy extraction.”’
Good post Theedrich. Energy does not behave in the way that other commodities does, because it is the key enabling agent for economic activity – the capacity to do work, by acting on matter.
For this reason, shortages of key energy sources tend not to result in higher prices. Since economic activity produces wealth and economic activity is a function of energy available, there are fixed limits to the amount of wealth that can be sustainably exchanged for an energy source. This is because the energy source can only generate a fixed amount of wealth by acting on matter.
The falling EROI of fossil energy sources means that there is now no price that will satisfy both producers and consumers. The price that would make it profitable to producers, is not affordable to those that would use it as an energy source.
This is how peak oil will happen. So far, the Ponzi scheme of quantitative easing has flooded bond markets with enough cash at almost zero interest rates, to keep the energy supply expanding. Inflation has remained low, as wages and commodities prices are being suppressed by a weakened global energy supply. It’s a vicious cycle, and it cannot continue indefinitely. Debt levels are rising rapidly as governments desperately try to keep today’s economy growing, by eating tomorrow’s jam.
JuanP on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 6:04 pm
Apnea “I don’t envision him having too much success since the insanity is only ratcheting up in the US”
I would never expect such a depressing perspective to be successful anywhere. It took all I had to hang on until the end of the speech. You have to be a glutton for punishment to listen to the truth this days. That is why I have been reading less and spending more time gardening this year. The truth is completely hopeless and totally overwhelming.
JuanP on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 6:07 pm
And I haven’t watched CNN or MSNBC in years. I just can’t stand the continuous lies and constant brainwashing.
Antius on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 6:18 pm
‘The absurdity lies with the architects of the multicultural society, namely to ignore history and identity and press ahead with creating the disaster that is now immanent.’
One the great weaknesses of human beings is that ideas provide emotional security for the individuals that believe in them and identity of groups. For this reason, bad ideas tend not to get dropped, even when they are consistently shown to be unworkable. Laws are enacted and taboos created to prevent bad ideas from being questioned, because doing so threatens the authority and emotional security of the people that believe in them. For a strong believer in cultural Marxist ideals, it is painful to have them questioned. The more they are disproven, the more intent the Marxist will be to force them to work and punish anyone who dares to oppose them.
That is why this poisonous ideology will never be removed without violence. It is why the US is so polarized and why European countries are becoming surveillance states, where freedom of speech does not exist.
Apneaman on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 6:29 pm
clinging clog clings to his pinhole 19th century worldview. They had that in Germany clog – how’d that work out for ya?
So fucking bad you have spent a lifetime playing the hysterical victim even though you were barely out of mom’s womb when it ended.
Dead people’s baggage. Dead people’s baggage. Dead people’s baggage.Dead people’s baggage. Dead people’s baggage. Dead people’s baggage.Dead people’s baggage. Dead people’s baggage. Dead people’s baggage.Dead people’s baggage. Dead people’s baggage. Dead people’s baggage.Dead people’s baggage. Dead people’s baggage. Dead people’s baggage.
Isen’t it getting heavy old man?
You have wasted your life carrying it and carrying on about it.
C’mon clog, carry me a little while….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZXjUu5HWYE
Davy on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 6:29 pm
The great weakness of humans is civilization to begin with. Civilization is not conducive to planetary systems. It is a disruptor of all natural systems it comes in contact with. Now that we have civilization the great weakness is wisdom to control our civilization.
Makati1 on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 6:51 pm
Ant, that was two good posts. You are so correct. The ability to purchase is shrinking as the debts of the FF companies are growing.
The US is in for more and more chaos as their “melting pot” dream is being torn apart by their masters. Red vs Blue. Black vs White. Rich vs poor. Snowflakes vs ???. And on and on…
Antius on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 7:05 pm
Agreed Makati. But I doubt very much that the turmoil will be limited to the US. Most countries are going to suffer badly, as fossil fuels are used everywhere and countries are interconnected by trade. Turmoil in the U.S. would mean huge drops in exports for China and Europe, both of whom are close to their own crises.
Let us hope that no one is hot headed enough to start throwing nukes around.
Cloggie on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 7:17 pm
“clinging clog clings to his pinhole 19th century worldview. They had that in Germany clog – how’d that work out for ya?”
And how did it work out for you between 1942-1944? Thrown out of entire Europe.
You lost the USSR, you are going to lose the USofA.
Can you remember that?
Apneaman on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 7:18 pm
JuanP, I hear ya and have been doing more non doomer enjoyable activities myself. I love reading books on ancient history. Not in 5 lifetimes could one read it all. More walking & music from my misspent youth.
There is no law that says one must never enjoy oneself just because they know it’s all unraveling. Worrying about it not your job and human overshoot is inevitable. Keeps going round and round and gets bigger with ever iteration now we are in the biggest one of all.
No matter what period of history you live in, you still only get one life to live.
My buddy from the way back days had a crude tattoo on the inside of his forearm – it said F T W
Fuck
The
World
Makati1 on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 7:18 pm
Antius, yes, it will spread to most 1st world countries, but less so to the others. The higher you are the greater the fall. The US uses about 2 gallons of oil per person per day. The Ps uses about 2 cups, per person, per day. Who will suffer the most? The American or the Filipino?
I have farm neighbors that will not even notice. Filipinos have been paying about $4+ per gallon for gas for at least 10 years, but only a small percentage use it as most make less than $20 per day. And few can afford anything imported. Only the wealthy will suffer here. That is likely in most “emerging” countries.
We do live in “interesting times”.
Apneaman on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 7:35 pm
Sorry clog, I can’t remember all of your accusatory rants.
It’s confusing.
For example, in your most recent raving you are claiming I lost USSR {wtf??}, and I am also going to lose the USofA {wtf X2??}.
I have ZERO idea of what you are ranting & frothing at the keyboard about.
clogs living in his own private Idaho….
Hoo-hoo-hoo-hoo-hoo, hoo-hoo-hoo-hoo
Hoo-hoo-hoo-hoo-hoo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASHO3gOSnaM
You’re a tortured soul clog. You should rest now.
Cloggie on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 8:40 pm
“You’re a tortured soul clog. You should rest now.”
I’m indeed a little ill right now, fortunately can listen to a Richard Spencer podcast while waiting for the sleep to come:
https://altright.com/2017/12/12/alt-right-politics-one-does-not-simply-zerg-rush-jerusalem/
Boat on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 9:24 pm
ape,
Exactly, if your doing life on your own terms, your doing ok. My prep is lifting those friggen weights. At 60 they kick my ass. Lol
Boat on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 9:31 pm
Juan P,
I read 80 percent of my news. Years ago I grew weary of verbal spin. I don’t even watch many videos. I do like corporate ceo’s talking trends. There tends to be no drama. I get my drama here. Lol
Apneaman on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 11:08 pm
clog drifts off to hate speech. If you’re lucky one night you will die, painlessly, in your sleep and float up to Nazi death camp heaven where they have an infinity of Jews to gas & shoot & starve & work to death. An endless all you can kill buffet.
You a crazy old coot. Here is another old man except he knows what he is talking about.
This piece is 10 years old and his predictions are right on the money.
ames Lovelock: ‘enjoy life while you can: in 20 years global warming will hit the fan’
The climate science maverick believes catastrophe is inevitable, carbon offsetting is a joke and ethical living a scam. So what would he do?
“More alarming even than his apocalyptic climate predictions is his utter certainty that almost everything we’re trying to do about it is wrong.”
“The initiative sits comfortably within the current canon of eco ideas, next to ethical consumption, carbon offsetting, recycling and so on – all of which are premised on the calculation that individual lifestyle adjustments can still save the planet. This is, Lovelock says, a deluded fantasy. Most of the things we have been told to do might make us feel better, but they won’t make any difference. Global warming has passed the tipping point, and catastrophe is unstoppable.”
It’s just too late for it,” he says”
“And recycling, he adds, is “almost certainly a waste of time and energy”, while having a “green lifestyle” amounts to little more than “ostentatious grand gestures”
“he regards it as merely more rearrangement of Titanic deckchairs”
“”You’re never going to get enough energy from wind to run a society such as ours,” he says. “Windmills! Oh no. No way of doing it. You can cover the whole country with the blasted things, millions of them. Waste of time.”
“Lovelock believes global warming is now irreversible, and that nothing can prevent large parts of the planet becoming too hot to inhabit, or sinking underwater, resulting in mass migration, famine and epidemics.”
“Interviewers often remark upon the discrepancy between Lovelock’s predictions of doom, and his good humour. “Well I’m cheerful!” he says, smiling. “I’m an optimist. It’s going to happen.”
“There have been seven disasters since humans came on the earth, very similar to the one that’s just about to happen. I think these events keep separating the wheat from the chaff.”
https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2008/mar/01/scienceofclimatechange.climatechange
Everything clog thinks is going to happen is the exact opposite of what Lovelock thinks and Lovelock is right because the AGW shit is hitting all over and getting shittier by the month.
10 more years before it hits? As long as none of the head monkeys pushes the nuke button, another 10 years is not out of the realm of possibilities, but it will be all downhill.
Makati1 on Tue, 12th Dec 2017 11:40 pm
Yes, Ap, I think that 10 years is about right before the really hard times hit. We will be seeing more and more climate disasters and geologic events as Gaia turns the big guns loose. Plagues, droughts, floods, insect infestations, Category 7 storms, extremes of heat and cold at unusual times and places, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes in new places, etc. All of those are in our future, I think. I would prefer that end to the one caused by war.
Davy on Wed, 13th Dec 2017 5:04 am
I have been living Lovelocks message for years and continue to preach these same ideas. I do believe in enjoying life. Death focuses life. Since this is a process you can make arrangements for adaptation and mitigation. You can live differently now in preparation for worse later. It is unclear when and what comes later so a default to a mad max view is not healthy. Realizing a mad max future is possible is healthy. Mad max could happen tomorrow is another acknowledgment we all should have. In reality our own death is possible tomorrow. Some of you may already be diagnosed as terminal and know you have only months.
I am here every day to find out the nature of what and when of this day of reckoning. Unfortunately it is more than climate. I also explore the socio/political, economic, and energy. Energy looks better of late then when I came on this forum 5 years ago but not much. Renewables, unconventionals, and other liquids will help. Gas is going to help. Maybe a tech breakthrough will help. I doubt it though. I think from here on out new tech that matters is clearly at its apex. Systematic diminishing returns is clearly a factor these days in almost everything we do. Planetary ecosystem decline and localized failure a reality.
It is yet to be known how long we can put off a die down and continue to grow global population. It is unclear how long we can force so much carbon. A destroyed global economy might change those numbers. What is clear is the damage has been done and once high quality energy is not abundant our numbers will be much lower. Our numbers will be lower for systematic reasons. Complexity supports higher numbers. Take away industrial agriculture that relies on modern practices and copious resources numbers could fall by 3/4. Take away a beneficial and moderate climate likewise. There are many weak links to our modernism.
I see a 1BIL people in a generation as a possibility. To get there will mean an average die down of 200MIL every year of deaths over births. Of course this will likely not be average with some years horrific but maybe other years less so. It is clear some regions will fare better than others. Get out of mega population regions if you can. They will be ugly eventually.
It is clear to me we need a lifeboat and hospice mentality. People on life boats practice conservation and stoic living. Hospices are a place where death is dealt with. It is clear society will not and cannot have this mentality for the basic reason of a narrative. This includes all major levels of our common meaning from religion, economy to the political. Confidence in our system that supplies the economic liquidity demands a narrative of manifest destiny. This is most fully achievable with techno optimism. Expect the cult of technology to remain strong until the very end.
This then means individuals and small communities can embrace reality within this unreality. You can leave denial and prepare from an uncertain future. You can live differently within this life we all must live in. None of us can leave the dangers but some of us can acknowledge them and adapt accordingly. Many of us cannot do much adaptation physically but the adaptation that can happen spiritually is only limited by your imagination.
Cloggie on Wed, 13th Dec 2017 3:04 pm
This just in: Westmonster has the power to sabotage Brexit
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5174875/Tory-rebels-accuse-Government-deaf.html