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Is Donald Trump Considering Donald Hoffman as Secretary of Energy?

Is Donald Trump Considering Donald Hoffman as Secretary of Energy? thumbnail

After every Presidential election, the game of “guess the cabinet” becomes one of the hottest activities in Washington, DC. One of the more entertaining aspects of the game is that almost anyone can play. Some participants read press articles voraciously and seek to impress their friends or readers by repeating names that they have heard.

Others introduce a name that no one has heard just to see what the reaction might be. A third group is often either new to the game or doesn’t like to play by the rules, so they publicly introduce names based on deductive reasoning.

My reasonably well-founded guess is that Donald Hoffman, the long-time President and CEO of Excel Services, is near the top of a short list of potential candidates to become the Secretary of Energy.

One of the first hints that Don might be in the running for some kind of position within the Trump Administration came during the campaign in the form of an October article in EENews. Hoffman mentioned his opportunities to talk with Candidate Trump about nuclear energy’s capacity for abundant, reliable power production without pollution or CO2 emissions.

Hoffman described a more subdued, inquisitive and thoughtful nominee than the Trump portrayed in Twitter fights, catchphrases, insults and political barbs — a nominee, Hoffman said, who has an appreciation for the value of electricity from nuclear reactors.

“He’s quite insightful; one-on-one, he’s really excellent. He asked some very insightful questions; we talked about the business of nuclear and the things we were doing in New York for the zero-emission credit and hoping to take the concept out to other states,” Hoffman said.

Hoffman could not attest to what Trump does — or doesn’t — think about climate change. Hoffman doesn’t have a Twitter account, nor did he see Trump’s 2012 tweet in which the nominee asserted that climate change policy is an attempt to stifle American manufacturing at the expense of overseas competition, Hoffman said.

“During our discussions, he clearly understood the need for addressing carbon emissions and the potential deleterious effects to the environment.”

Who Is Donald Hoffman?

Hoffman joined Trump’s Leadership Council in March. He is a successful businessman who founded and built a company on the foundation of the technical expertise and management skills he developed during nine years of service in the Nuclear Navy and four years of service as a professional staff member at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. His company, Excel Services Corporation, is a respected nuclear engineering and consulting firm.

Excel Services isn’t a widely known brand outside of the industry it serves, so here is a brief description provided in a profile published in the American Nuclear Society’s Nuclear News at the time Hoffman became President of the ANS.

In 1985, Hoffman left the NRC and formed EXCEL Services Corporation, lo- cated in Rockville, Md., in order to address what he perceived as the need to balance safety and performance/cost issues in a manner that would improve the overall safety and performance of nuclear power facilities. “At the time, there was not a lot being done in that arena,” Hoffman said, “and I thought it would be interesting to do it.”

(His company, he insists, was the first in the United States to be named EXCEL, predating the Microsoft product.)

Hoffman describes his firm as “an international nuclear engineering company that specializes in regulatory and operational initiatives that enhance safety, improve performance, and reduce costs of operating nuclear facilities.” Over the past 28 years, he noted, EXCEL has done business with virtually every U.S. nuclear utility and every nuclear plant and enrichment facility in the United States. The company is also currently working on projects in 21 countries, as well as with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the World Nuclear Association, among other organization

For nearly a quarter of a century, Excel has generously supported the work of the American Nuclear Society, a 15,000-member technical society made up of scientists, engineers and technical specialists focusing on nuclear science and technology.

Hoffman has been an active participant in the Society. He has served on the Board of Directors and as President, a job with nominally a one year term of office that requires a three year commitment. The first year is spent traveling and meeting society members as the President Elect, and the second year leading the organization as the President, and the third year advising and special projects management as the immediate Past President.

Is Hoffman Too Focused On A Single Energy Source To Be Secretary Of Energy?

People with the technical capacity to understand nuclear energy are well suited to understand the workings of other energy sources and advanced scientific research. Don has proven that he is a capable manager and leader in a way that will most likely appeal to President Trump; he established his track record as a successful businessman in a challenging industry.

During his service and travels as ANS President and immediate Past President, Hoffman expanded on his already deep understanding of the important role that energy plays in our modern economy.

He has held discussions with leaders in coal, oil, gas, wind, hydro, solar and biomass. He’s been working to explain the Trump approach to sensible energy and has recently founded a non-profit named Sensible Energy Matters to America (SEMA) to help spread that message as widely as possible.

Hoffman is not the only member of Trump’s circle of advisors that recognizes the value of nuclear energy. Senator Jeff Sessions, Peter Thiel and Scott Bannon also support nuclear energy development and deployment.

I imagine that several of Trump’s advisors have spoken to him about nuclear energy’s untapped potential. From the 1940s to the 1970s, America was the greatest supplier of atomic energy to the world. People in Trump’s generation clearly remember that period of nuclear greatness.

That lost greatness came as a result of many of the factors that Candidate Trump talked about consistently on the stump. The factors the contributed to nuclear energy’s fall from grace in the U.S. include “cost-is-no-object” regulation, poor management, bad trade deals, foreign efforts to handicap U.S.-based manufacturing and narrowed visions of the potential for human growth and development.

Nuclear went through a lengthy period during which is was not politically correct. In fact, it wasn’t long ago that being pro-nuclear was considered to be the third rail of politics. Admitting that position was nearly certain to cause political death.

Now, people at one end of the political spectrum recognize that we need our energy sources to be clean so that they do not contribute to air pollution or climate change. Many have reluctantly revised their indoctrinated position against nuclear energy because of its emission-free nature.

People on the other end of the spectrum understand the value of abundant energy and believe that regulations should be limited to protecting people and private property interests and not used as a club to halt development. They believe nuclear energy is fine as long as it can compete in the market.

Based on annual public opinion surveys, a majority of people in the middle of the political spectrum have always favored the safe development of nuclear energy.

A Secretary of Energy with a strong government, business, technical and non-profit group background in nuclear energy with a good understanding of all other energy options would be a good fit with Trump’s stated vision.

Robust nuclear energy growth would help Trump achieve his vision of restoring American manufacturing, improving our infrastructure, developing high-skilled jobs and expanding our international competitiveness.

Disclosure: I’ve been a declared supporter of Don Hoffman for several years. Here is a piece published in 2012 – Don Hoffman is one of my heroes – a nuclear leader who recognizes threat from natural gas.

Energy Collective

38 Comments on "Is Donald Trump Considering Donald Hoffman as Secretary of Energy?"

  1. Go Speed Racer on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 5:20 pm 

    Donald Trump will nominate Homer Simpson
    to be the Secretary of Energy.
    Homer has nuclear power plant experience.

  2. penury on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 5:38 pm 

    just what we need, another
    too cheap to meter and absolutely safe people.

  3. peakyeast on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 6:55 pm 

    I would say Trump is not a bad choice in President when considering his expertise in bankruptcies and running things into the ground. That experience, I expect, will be needed and used.

    – I have some doubts the problems will wait for Lisa Simpson to solve.

    But I do have my misgivings too: The larger couple of hotelbosses I personally know are deeply involved in mafia dealings and organisations alike to Hells-angels. One of them even has his own team of gangsters to keep the others in check. A dishonest man, who only recently after a heart attack discovered that life is not eternal and he whined that noone came to visit him at the hospital.

    Perhaps Trump is not like those… … hmm

  4. rockman on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 6:59 pm 

    Great potential. Especially when the govt helps us buy the 100+ million EV’s we can recharge with nuke sourced electricity. Until then petroleum provides 92% of the energy used for transportation, but only provides about 1% of the energy used to generate electric power.

  5. joe on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 7:03 pm 

    These recounts will totally embitter the reps towards any reconcillation with the left. Trump had better lose the recounts otherwise Hillary will suddenly find Trumps AG is all turned around on investigations. We might just see Clinton reverse her consession to Trump and claim the Presidency. This could develop into a very serious thing. Especially since Trump will feel that he has already met the left halfway on allot of stuff (whether or not its true). He might just nominate the Pope or Baghdadi for the Supreme Court! The elites are going too far with this manoeuvre. People can see whats going on. The elites in the UK hoping to reverse Brexit are the same as the ones hoping to reverse the Trump election.

  6. makati1 on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 7:06 pm 

    joe, the end of the game is in sight and the elite are losing. They will do ANYTHING to retain control. ANYTHING. The next year is going to be exciting, I think. WW3?

  7. rockman on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 7:27 pm 

    Joe – I’ve noticed the most vocal “don’t do the recount” club has been D’s and nor R’s. Makes me wonder which party might be more worried about signs of voting fraud turning up.

  8. peakyeast on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 7:34 pm 

    Why is Jill of all doing this? I could understand Hillary pushing for it.

  9. makati1 on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 7:42 pm 

    Peaky, it’s ALL about money. Cash flowing into HER war chest for future battles. Money rules America, not common sense or intelligence.

  10. Sissyfuss on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 8:24 pm 

    Back to the article, not a whisper about storing nuclear waste which will continue to grow in quantity and danger. But mentioning it would scrape some of the luster off their sales pitch. Perhaps Trump could build a concrete tower for its storage with a casino above the containment building.

  11. Anonymous on Sat, 26th Nov 2016 9:10 pm 

    Guess the cabinet? Seriously? Here is my prediction. They will all be

    -Wall St Insiders
    -Oil corporation Insiders (is there any other kind?)
    -Active or retired Pentagon insiders.

    Their names or identities hardly matter, interchangeable as this group collectively are.

  12. rockman on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 12:11 am 

    “I could understand Hillary pushing for it.” She has now announced that she’s up for it. And heard some interesting FACTS tonight. By federal LAW the electoral college must vote on 19 Dec whether the recounts are completed or not. And the recounts will be done by hand…typically a very slow process. But 19 Dec isn’t the hard date…14 Dec is. All states must turn their vote counts to the EC no later then that date by federal LAW whether the recounts are completed or not.

    Also even though President-elect Trump’s margins were by just very small percentages in those three states no recount has ever come very close to reversing such percentages. What’s interesting is that Secrertary Clinton won by a smaller percentage in one state then two of the ones that are being pushed for a recount.

    Guess the green lady isn’t worried about the rights of those voters. LOL.

  13. joe on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 1:55 am 

    I just find it interesting because Hillary knows what Stein knows and could easily get 7mln for recounts or whatever. Maybe its about time people began to understand that it is a very managed system. Nobody will vote green because of a recount so whats she playing at? If Clinton won by Trumps margins would we be talking about this? Probobly not. Clinton CONCEEDED, thats also an important part of the system, Stein could cause allot of harm with this. So why?

  14. Davy on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 3:59 am 

    I am wondering how honest is a recount? Can it be hacked or stuffed? Hillary conceded so what does that mean? I am also wondering if the D’s election shenanigans we know about from pre-election hacking could surface although I think their tactics were illegals, multiple voting, and dead voters. A recount will not spot that type of fraud. I know the Electoral College has its system and the delegates can vote according to their choosing theoretically so if clear evidence of a Hillary win surfaced could they put Hillary in the white house? We do know that we have a political civil war going on now with the oligarchs and neocon establishment. If there were significant irregularities even if those irregularities did not change the results, the Hillary/Soros crowd would use this as fodder in their battle for “so called” legitimacy. They could delegitimize the Trump/Putin detente if hacking was involved. The D’s are blaming any hacking on the Russians.

    I doubt this will turn the election but it could make the coming battles more polarized. This is just more examples of the coming battles that will likely span Trump’s administration. Polarization is reaching extremes now and this will be the nature of DC politics until the country dissolves politically in a global decline. The R’s made Obama’s life miserable now the D’s have their opportunity.

    I had become disinterested in politics but that has changed. It is clear we must have détente and the oligarchs and neocons must be disrupted. They are not going easily but the can be diminished. I also know the R’s have their own corrupted establishment with neocons and oligarchs so I in no way believe this is all the D’s. It is my hope Trump will shock the swamp so the swamp monsters of all colors will at least surface so they can be exposed and discredited. Trump may catch the swamp flue and become one or he may already be one in waiting. Trump is not a great leader yet and maybe never will be but this is a profoundly important time of a global world order flying apart and he is in a position to affect this process much like Putin.

  15. peakyeast on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 4:05 am 

    @rock: Thanks for a good explanation to a non-us citizen.

    Yeah I was also thinking that if I were Trump I would push back and get a recounts in those Clinton won by a small margin. Just to make things “fair” again.

    It would all..correction.. it has all ended in childish games where leading the country is the least important item.

  16. Cloggie on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 4:26 am 

    Even the Trump haters of the Dutch TV-news give the recount very little chance. But it will indeed increase the tensions in Washington and the rest of the country. Tellingly Trump’s wife and children won’t live in the White House.

    The western communist One World press, every one of them representing the interests of the US deep state, is giving Trump exactly the same treatment as they did and do to Putin:
    “Insanity. America’s inciter Donald Trump”
    “The End of the World (as we know it)”
    “The Trumps – a terribly powerful family”

  17. Cloggie on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 4:38 am 

    Who did Trump invite to Washington first?

    Merkel? No.
    Hollande? No.
    May? No.
    Juncker? No.


    The de facto #1 European resistance leader in the battle against the Soros-neocon bunch:

    You won’t get more proof that Trump is for real than this.

    On special request by Friday, just because it is so funny:

    Impression of the scale of the resistance against Merkel in Germany:

    Young right-wing resistance leaders spring up everywhere in Europe at the moment.

    Merkel (and Hollande), the last stronghold of the NWO. Won’t be long until she will be chased out of office.

  18. rockman on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 9:03 am 

    “Tellingly Trump’s wife and children won’t live in the White House.” Just until the spring when their young boy finishes the school year. Being a good mom. Then one big happy family at the Big House.

  19. Cloggie on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 11:13 am 

    That’s new then:

    It was previously reported that Melania Trump planned to remain at the couple’s penthouse in New York with Barron, their 10-year-old son after the inauguration.

    That’s what I had picked up.

    Perhaps a “presidential order” changed their minds.

  20. Apneaman on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 11:22 am 

    Old Dutch, nothing is “proven” until it actually happens. You’re 72 and getting giddy for every other media story that confirms your biases. Still don’t understand political theater. Same thing with not yet invented technologies or the stupid Daily Mail coal gasification article you have posted numerous times. Do you think repeatedly posting the article will make the project happen? 1/2 the stories that ever appeared on this site are hyped up bullshit about projects and technologies that never panned out and never will. You would think someone who has been around for more than a few laps would have spotted the pattern by now and have stopped doing cartwheels every time.

    NBC? aren’t they leftists NWO supporters? Owned by NWO elites?

    How come you are not weighing in on Trump’s proposed appointments? Looks like he is draining the swamp of one set of neoliberal, neocon scum fucks and filling it up with a set that is just as bad or worse.

    I’ll hold off judgement and commenting, for the most part, until everything is official, at which point I will thoroughly enjoy myself rubbing your face in the big betrayal.

    NWO huh. There is a new world order. It’s called neo liberalism and was made official and ushered in, in the 80’s by Reagan and Thatcher (the plotting was going on for many decades prior).

    Their power comes from convincing the humans that their wants are needs and constantly inventing new ones. Mindless, gluttonous consumerism is the root of their power. It’s was made all the easier by constant propaganda – economists, advertising, and then the peer pressure. They have gotten the majority of people dedicated to chasing consumer dopamine hits as their life’s purpose. People like you old dutch with your 34″ curved computer monitor and bragging about it. You just can’t live without that eh? I would guess that 50 -70% of the shit people own is unnecessary to live a decent and comfortable life. Keep shopping folks and filling their coffers – that’s their power. Keep going on those unnecessary vacations too. Keep doing all of it, but stop bitching about the NWO because you made them and feed them.

    Clogged, don’t you see how you have created a manichean narrative in your own head? Soros is the evil billionaire and Trump is the good billionaire. A nice simple emotionally satisfying story with white hats VS black hats. In your fantasy world there are no nuances or gray areas. I remember a few weeks back when you played your little Alex Jones “they’re trying to shut me down” performance – a carbon copy of Alex. Same as Jones always going on about being followed and spied on by numerous evil forces. Right, like it would take much effort to follow and spy on someone that loud with a radio and webcast. If they were really after him he would be in prison like Chelsea Manning, or exile line Ed Snowden and Julian Assange or dead. Alex is a big fucking joke to TPTB because he is a cartoon. A cartoon watched by a million adult children. It’s another perfect example of the infantilization of western civ.

    Trump, nor any of the other big club members, like Sosos, gives a fuck about you or any of the plebs. You are pawns to be used and discarded in their power games. The idea that an arrogant, self aggrandizing Trump gives a shit about the little guy is absurd and so are your childish over the top conspiracies.

    The New World Order (NWO) is a conspiracy theory that a powerful group is in control of the world, or on the verge of gaining such control.

    “Out of one, many

    As is typical of many conspiracy theories, there is not one theory but several contradictory ones.
    Because of the various contradictory theories it is a good idea to get a New World Order conspiracy theorist to explicitly state which particular “theory” he is backing. There are two reasons for this:
    Conspiracy theorists frequently don’t know much about their own theory, and consequently can’t give a direct answer – only that there must be a conspiracy.
    In the event that the person does have a clear idea, you obviously must know which one they support so as not to waste your time talking about another one.”

    “NWO theories today

    It is hard to imagine any US president giving up American sovereignty to any organization, particularly the UN. However, some especially paranoid conservatives and libertarians believed that once the Democrats came into power in 2008, it was only a matter of time until a socialist one-world government was instated and American sovereignty given up. Dissenters would naturally have to be controlled or eliminated somehow. The loss of Democratic Congressional power in the 2014 mid-term elections discredited that idea, and the paranoid conservatives were somewhat silenced.”

    and on and on and on

  21. rockman on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 12:04 pm 

    Cloggie – Did you just read the title and not the first line of that link? LOL.

    From your link: “Donald Trump’s wife and son will wait to move into the White House until the end of the school year,”

  22. Cloggie on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 12:38 pm 

    Do I hear a Llama shitting?

    Oh wait, it is Friday, yearning for some splaining and attention.

    I’ll explain it to you again, this time slowly.

    There is nothing esoteric about the NWO. It is simply the American Empire aspiring to control the entire world.

    You could also teasingly call it the Judaic State, considering who it is who is pulling the levers in the US. Even Dutch leftists can no longer ignore it after Mearsheimer and Walt:

    Joe Biden himself used the phrase “NWO” shortly after the demise of the USSR (WSJ, April 1992). “Conspiracy theory” much?

    Between 1991 and 2015 most of the American elite thought they could get the rest of the world under control. After all the USSR had gone belly up and China was still nowhere to be seen and Europe was still busy setting up a cute little super power of their own.

    After 1991 so-called oligarchs of a certain ethnic background took over Russia, backed by Washington. No wonder that by 1998 a group of so-called neocons, of the same ethnic background…

    …began to fantasize about a New American Century, to be initiated by a new Pearl Harbor. Out of the blue a group of Arabs were willing to play into the hands of these neocons (if you are stupid enough to believe that story, like no doubt you are, as you believe anything that is on the telly).

    However, after 2000, Russia finally produced a Hitler of its own (83 years too late), Vladimir the Great to be more precise, who systematically began to attack the oligarchs. Hitler 1.0 would have been proud of this Russian Final Solution ultra-lite.

    And the US deep state and its global media are very pissed off ever since.

    Meanwhile, China began its breath-taking ascendancy and by 2015 even dyed-in-the-wool NWO folks like Brzezinski began to admit that the US empire was dead in the water:

    Not longer after an American Hitler appeared at the scene to finish the US empire off altogether. Little guys like you now don’t have to fight WW3 in Russia or China. You should have a poster of the Donald above your bed out of gratitude. Ow wait, you know no gratitude, you are a leftie and NWO adept yourself.

    Hope this helps. If you don’t understand anything, like the NWO, just ask. Remember Friday, we are here to help you.

  23. Cloggie on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 12:48 pm 

    @rockman – please reread my post to verify that earlier I had picked up reports that stated that mrs. Trump would not move to the WH at all. Next you came with an updated report that she will move to the WH after all, albeit with delay.

    I did read the first line but apparently you didn’t read the second line in the telegraph link.

    Didn’t miss anything, you just updated me with the latest information available, thanks for that.

  24. Cloggie on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 12:53 pm 

    Forgot to add the Joe Biden NWO link:

    “How I learned to love the New World Order”

    Wallstreet Journal April 1992.

  25. Apneaman on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 2:58 pm 

    Old dutch, you are simply incapable of understanding the futility of it all. NO ONE can un-deplete the depleted resources and NO ONE can fix a corrupt and broken highly complex human created global system that NO ONE totally understands. NO ONE can do anything to halt the inertia in the climate system or halt the mass extinction. Humans will be going early – like before this century is out. All your little tribal monkey politics are a joke. All I see is a few troops of competing screeching monkeys with their heads up their asses. There is no existing political system that is capable of managing the humans self inflicted predicaments. The current system does nothing but inflict the maximum amount of damage and the monkey people like it because it delivers daily dopamine drips. The more the cancer grows the shorter the time left. Soon the band aids will no longer stop the bleeding. You can see it the numbers and in reality as ever more nations and people are just barely hanging on to their futile industrial living arrangements.

    Is The World Running Out Of Water? Bolivia Declares National Emergency Amid Drought

    “With reservoirs supplying the capital almost dry, an estimated 125,000 families have been impacted by the drought. Ranchers, mainly in the city of Santa Cruz, have also recorded a loss of $149 million due to the drought, with 60,000 cattle dead, reported Bolivia’s La Razón. In three cities, including La Paz, the end of the school year has been brought forward by up to a week due to the shortage of water.”

    “Around the world, a lack of water due to the effects of global warming has led to an increased reliance on underground aquifers. Many of the planet’s largest aquifers, supplying water to hundreds of millions of people, are now being rapidly depleted.”

    ‘Remarkable year’: What’s behind the record low sea ice in Antarctica

    “This year will certainly go down as a stunning one for polar ice. In the Arctic, sea ice growth in the lead-up to winter stalled at record low levels in November amid temperatures 20 degrees above normal that some commentators described as “insane” and a clarion call of global warming.
    With less ice to reflect the sun’s radiation to space, more heat is absorbed by the oceans, added to the warming”

    Daily CO2

    November 26, 2016: 405.40 ppm

    November 26, 2015: 400.79 ppm

    October CO2

    October 2016: 401.57 ppm

    October 2015: 398.29 ppm

    The pace is quickening. Almost every metric shows stunning rates that are bad news all around. Hockey stick graphs all over the place.

    So what is the plan from your adopted leader? A billionaire reality TV star and climate denier – oh ya, he gonna fix things up real good. LMAO. He gonna dial down the saber rattling with Russia and crank up the war on the biosphere. Ahh he can’t be much worse than the other US head managers of BAU and I have long predicted that enviro regs will get gutted for the sake of another can kick or two. If not him then the next one. Team right is just a matter of fact about it is all whereas team left needs to pretend they give a shit and are doing something- they didn’t. They’ll lay most of it on him and in fact many liberals have been doing that already even though he is not yet serving, but the damage was already done and we just waiting for the inertia to catch up.

  26. Davy on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 3:42 pm 

    “Losers Who Won’t Lose: What Are The Odds Of A Successful Hillary Recount?”

    “We should note the following statistical facts about the electoral vote in the three recount states:
    10 votes, Wisconsin (Trump leads by 0.9 percentage points)
    20 votes, Pennsylvania (Trump leads by 1.1 percentage points)
    16 votes, Michigan (Trump leads by 0.2 percentage points)
    Given that Mr. Trump won by 74 electoral votes, Ms. Clinton would need to flip all three states noted above, in order to liquidate this deficit (i.e., >74/2 = >37 votes). The leads described above however, among 4.4 million voters from these three states, is highly statistically significant on a state-level (and certainly when all three states are combined). It would be remarkably unlikely (>5? event) that we would arbitrarily second-guess every one of these millions of voters’ intents and, convert any (certainly let alone all) of these three states.”

    “Hillary must be cognizant of this improbability, and so is piggy-backing off of the second most reasonable recount rationale: not that errors in intent occurred, but rather straight-fraud on such a scale that would flip most of these states. While tempting for true Democrat supporters, this fraud scenario is of course dubious. Because for it to work, we would need to suppose that such fraud occurred in three different ways at once:
    Michigan is a paper-ballot state (no electronic voter equipment hacking) so fraud is virtually unlikely to show at all
    Wisconsin does have paper back-ups recorded though the counties that are most heterogeneous, are lesser-populated and not so wildly-off probabilistically
    Pennsylvania has similar issues to Wisconsin, except they haven’t recorded all of their votes in an auditable back-up so judicial hurdles must be overcome”

    “The bottom line is everything must go right here, in all three state recounts (between proving fraud and getting mathematical help from wide-spread voter intent errors), in order to better align towards a Donald Trump downfall. And even if this all occurred, accounting for all of these statistical adjustments, the probability of a Hillary Clinton triumph is still quite low.”

  27. Shortend on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 4:06 pm 

    Discussion on 172 comments
    Study: IPCC Doesn’t Account for 1 Billion Tons of CO2 Absorbed Annually… by Cement
    jack dale
    jack dale Sean Morgan 4 hours ago
    Richard Alley a paleoclimatologist who is the keeper of the GISP2 ice cores from Greenland, explains it rather well. He is quite fun to watch.

    Reply View in discussion
    jack dale
    jack dale Sean Morgan 4 hours ago
    Milankovitch cycles would initiate warming releasing oceanic CO2 which would then create a positive feedback. That natural cycles is now broken as we have released 11.5 trillion tonnes of CO2 without the need of a Milankovitch cycle.
    This departure is so dramatic that it has instigated a new era. According to some studies, there is enough evidence to state that we have departed the Holocene and entered the Anthropocene. Simply put, based on the evidence, mankind has forced the Earth climate system to depart from it’s natural cycle forcing.
    This departure is so dramatic that it has instigated a new era. According to some studies, there is enough evidence to state that we have departed the Holocene and entered the Anthropocene. Simply put, based on the evidence, mankind has forced the Earth climate system to depart from it’s natural cycle forcing.

  28. peakyeast on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 4:30 pm 

    @ape: “With less ice to reflect the sun’s radiation to space, more heat is absorbed by the oceans, added to the warming”…

    This does not make sense to me. The winter half year at the northpole is complete darkness around the clock. Thus there is no sunlight of consequence to reflect.

    A black surface emits heat much much better than a white insulated surface. So the lack of Ice is a stabilizing effect in the night half of the year on the pole.

    Even in the “summer” there is not an enormeous amount of sunlight there, but I will accept that in the summer there could be a problem with reflection.

  29. peakyeast on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 4:49 pm

    ” This year will certainly go down as a stunning one for polar ice. In the Arctic, sea ice growth in the lead-up to winter stalled at record low levels in November amid temperatures 20 degrees above normal that some commentators described as “insane” and a clarion call of global warming.
    With less ice to reflect the sun’s radiation to space, more heat is absorbed by the oceans, added to the warming ”

    The arctic (North). November (Winter=No sun).

    Either this guy doesnt know what he is talking about or the journalist has an addled brain and are quoting sentences at random. I find the latter most probable.

  30. makati1 on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 6:19 pm 

    peaky, seems logical, except… What is the difference between the TOTAL heat absorbed during the sunny half of the year VS the TOTAL loss during the dark half? At what temperature does it flip from gain to loss? At what temperature does sea water freeze? How many Calories of heat to melt it again?

    As we progress up the temperature ladder, we will get these answers, and, I suspect they will not be pretty. BUT by that time, we will be dealing with heat, super storms, flood, fire, and famine everywhere on the globe. The days of humanity will be about over by then. WE will have regressed to the animals we are and it will be a ‘survival of the fittest’ world again.

  31. peakyeast on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 6:58 pm 

    @mak: Yes I agree it is an interesting calculation. If you notice I concede the point about the summer, but not the winter.

    Perhaps its my lack of english skills that makes it look like (to me) that he is talking about winter and sun.

  32. Sissyfuss on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 7:14 pm 

    Peaksmarts, because the oceans have accumulated 97% of the GHG warming over the years, you don’t need sunlight during the polar night to continue the record melting occurring now. Check the ocean temperature graphs such as Scribbler posts to see the ridiculous levels of heating going on at both poles. When the sun goes down the oceans take over. Ask the puffins.

  33. makati1 on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 7:16 pm 

    Peaky, your English skills seem fine and are much better than some here who should know better. You have to pay attention to punctuation, mostly.

    The NET effect on the Arctic is all that is important. But, only as an observation by we who are interested. Most of the world is not even cognizant that there is a problem. I.E. Cruise liners prepping for the new locations to visit.

  34. Apneaman on Sun, 27th Nov 2016 7:47 pm 

    Peaky that’s a good question. Peter Hannam, who knows his shit, does mean when the sun is shining in the Arctic. It’s polar night right now, but that will be reversed and there will be polar day (sun don’t set). The albedo effect reflects something like 90% or more of the energy, whereas the dark water absorbs it. Takes a shit load more energy to melt ice than to warm water so all ice/albedo loss contributes to more ocean warming which means more ice/albedo loss which contributes to more more warming which means more ice/albedo loss which…..positive self reinforcing feedback. The sea ice rate of reforming is very freaky this fall and will bring on the consequences that much sooner.

    The Arctic Is Seriously Weird Right Now
    Instead of expanding during this cold, dark time of year, sea ice is shrinking

    “Intense warmth in both the air and oceans is driving the mini-meltdown at a time when Arctic sea ice should be rapidly growing.”

    “Even in an age where climate change is making outliers—lowest maximum sea ice extent set two years in a row, the hottest year on record set three years in a row, global coral bleaching entering a third year—the norm, what’s happening in the Arctic right now stands out for just how outlandish it is.”

  35. GregT on Mon, 28th Nov 2016 12:24 am 

    “Check the ocean temperature graphs such as Scribbler posts to see the ridiculous levels of heating going on at both poles.”

    Yup, and what’s happening at the poles, isn’t going to stay at the poles.

  36. peakyeast on Mon, 28th Nov 2016 11:27 am 

    @Sissyfuss: What is your problem? First I am not talking to you. Second: I am talking about sunshine in the arctic and November at the arctic. This has no connection with heat flowing in from the rest of earth. Even a child can understand that.

    And, of course, the less ice in the summer the less reflection. But I am not so much into trying to predict the future when it comes to climate. I can see how wrong the professionals are all the time trying to tell us if it rains tomorrow.

    Thanks for ape@mak for a constructive comments.

  37. peakyeast on Mon, 28th Nov 2016 11:29 am 

    Ugh – I really miss an edit function… Please, bear with me – I am very tired today.

  38. Apneaman on Mon, 28th Nov 2016 1:13 pm 

    peaky, the professionals who attempt to predict the weather forecast are meteorologists. They are not climate researchers although there are climate researchers in the field of metrology. So you are confusing weather forecasting with climate science. Climate science is a multi disciplinary field and studies the big picture over time.

    NASA – What’s the Difference Between Weather and Climate?

    “The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere “behaves” over relatively long periods of time.

    When we talk about climate change, we talk about changes in long-term averages of daily weather”

    “What Weather Means

    Weather is basically the way the atmosphere is behaving, mainly with respect to its effects upon life and human activities. The difference between weather and climate is that weather consists of the short-term (minutes to months) changes in the atmosphere.”

    “What Climate Means
    In short, climate is the description of the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area.”

    The folks who work in the denial industry know all this and conflating the inaccuracies of weather forecasting is straight out of their playbook.

    The truth of the matter is that the majority of climate predictions have played out. There biggest errors were in the timing – much faster than previously expected.

    Here are a few of the predictions, going back decades, of things that would increase in area, length, severity and frequency. All have come to pass.

    Droughts -yes

    Wildfire -yes

    Precipitation & flood events – yes

    More powerful storms and Hurricanes – yes

    Increased lighting – yes

    Sea level rise – yes

    Species migrations and extinctions – yes

    Glacier shrinkage – yes

    Sea ice loss – yes

    This is just the beginning.

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