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Could It Happen? China hastens its planned invasion of Siberia to access newly discovered oil and gold fields

Could It Happen? China hastens its planned invasion of Siberia to access newly discovered oil and gold fields thumbnail

The title of this posting is taken from the Wikipedia article describing the Tom Clancy thriller: The Bear and the Dragon. Novelists are known for taking liberties with the facts, but that is all in the nature of fiction writing. In reality, could China be planning an invasion of Siberia in order to take over the massive resources there?

Certainly the Russians have been considering the possibility for several years:

Russian assessments from 1997 suggested that China, not the United States, posed the greatest threat to Russia’s interests and allies. Indeed, leading Russian scholars of international relations such as Alexei Arbatov predicted that over the next five to 20 years, Russia should carefully watch China’s expansionism toward Siberia and the Russian Far East, as well as Central Asia … _thediplomat

“[Russians are] still worried that China will invade Siberia one day because of the resources,” Dmitry Gorenburg, a senior analyst at military and public sector think tank CNA, said in an interview last month.

“Because from the Russian point of view it’s a very sparsely populated area, hard to defend, very remote from the center of Russia,” he said. _Taipei Times

They have good reason to be concerned. The ethnic Russian population of Siberia is disappearing at the same time that the Chinese population in Siberia — legal and illegal — is growing. Russia’s population is increasingly crowded to the west of the Urals, making it more difficult for the Russian Bear to keep an eye on its vast and immeasurably wealthy land areas to the west.

And on another level, Russia needs to be concerned about the demographic pressures influencing China’s top leaders. Like most of East Asia, China is rapidly ageing — losing its young workforce at the same time it is gaining large populations of the old and infirm.

Whatever China’s leaders are going to do to guarantee China’s rightful place in the top rank of world powers, it will need to do before its people turn gray and shrunken.

Russia is struggling with an economy built upon an over-reliance on oil & gas exports — and very little else. Corrupt — like most oil dictatorships — Russia also struggles with a collapsing public health infrastructure, an ongoing brain drain of the best and brightest of its young, and a level of stealth capital flight that officials cannot tally, much less control.

Russia is a nation that shows the world a pretty face, but inside it is rotting from tuberculosis, HIV, alcoholism, and a deep despair that too often results in suicide. And the numbers of ethnic Russians continues to drop — while the numbers of immigrants from the third world grows, blurring the underlying population trends.

Will China invade Siberia? It has been doing so for over a hundred years. But the pace of invasion does seem to have picked up recently.

It is more than likely that China’s leaders are biding their time, scouting the terrain, looking for the best opportunity. In the end, Tom Clancy may have gotten off a lucky shot.

Al Fin

5 Comments on "Could It Happen? China hastens its planned invasion of Siberia to access newly discovered oil and gold fields"

  1. Arthur on Wed, 24th Oct 2012 5:08 pm 

    Pat Buchanan has been warning for this scenario for years (read: ‘Death of the West’). The SCO alliance between Russia and China in reality is an unnatural alliance, uneasy for Russia, which is pushed into this alliance by the agressiveness of the US. The real long term strategy of Russia is an alliance between Russia and Europe, as formulated repeatedly by Putin:

    “The Europe factor

    Russia is an inalienable and organic part of Greater Europe and European civilization. Our citizens think of themselves as Europeans. We are by no means indifferent to developments in united Europe.

    That is why Russia proposes moving towards the creation of a common economic and human space from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean – a community referred by Russian experts to as “the Union of Europe,” which will strengthen Russia’s potential and position in its economic pivot toward the “new Asia.””

    China does not need to invade, infiltration by gradual migration is enough. Russia will not be able to hold it’s territory if it’s population keeps plummeting like it does now.

    Overpopulated Europe must take a strategic decision and choose for Russia and let the one-sided relationship with the US (based on conquest during WW2) phase out, as there are no pipelines under the Atlantic in contrast to the Baltic. Russia has the energy, resources and an eager consumer market. Russia needs support to contain China as Russians define themselves as Europeans, not Chinese. Timing here is crucial to avoid an anti-Greater-European Chinese-American alliance. After all, the US has a precedent in it’s anti European alliance, together with the USSR from 1933-1948, that was rooted in zionist dominance over both the USSR and the USA. Now the zionists only enjoy a strangle hold over the US, as Putin was able to kick out the zionist olicharchs to Israel or the UK and put the most dangerous one, Khodorkovski, in jail where he belongs. When the lucky day will arrive that the Euro-Americans will be able to free themselves from J-power (media, FED, AIPAC, political organisations), for instance after 9/11-truth comes out, the Euro-Americans could join the Greater European alliance.

  2. DC on Wed, 24th Oct 2012 10:15 pm 

    Soon as you see this is an Al Fin article, you know its safe to stop reading….

  3. BillT on Thu, 25th Oct 2012 12:52 am 

    China attack Russia? Why? Two nuclear armed countries that have to share borders and have a common enemy don’t go to war. China will buy Siberia if anything, not invade it. And, yes, it would go nuclear, taking the rest of the world down with it.

    China is all over the world buying assets and resources. It would not be doing that if it had plans on its next door neighbors resources. Al Fin is nothing but a gossip rag trying to make a profit off of gullible people.

    Yes Russia wants Europe and China wants Central Asia. The Us wants the world. So what? We don’t always get what we want as the Us is finding out.

  4. Bor on Thu, 25th Oct 2012 4:01 pm 

    China will invade Siberia? Give me a brake. It is physically impossible. There is no infrastructure in Siberia. It is mostly wilderness. The scarcity of resources will not allow building it ever. Siberia, thanks God, will not be destroyed.

    Yes. China needs resources very badly. It is shopping around intensely and everywhere.
    Russia will sell some of Siberian resources to China. It is more realistic and takes place already. But most of Siberia will be left pristine.

  5. Arthur on Thu, 25th Oct 2012 4:20 pm 

    “China will invade Siberia? Give me a brake. It is physically impossible.”

    The Czar did that more than a century ago.

    “Yes. China needs resources very badly. It is shopping around intensely and everywhere.”

    Guess where it will ‘shop’? I give you a hint. Japan invaded the Dutch East Indies in 1941 for no other reason than ‘needing resources very badly’ (because Roosevelt had imposed a fatal oil-boycott against Japan in order to provoke the attack against Pearl Harbor). That’s what countries are forced to do in that case. In 2012 Indonesia is overpopulated and little resources are left. But south of Indonesia there is a vast empty continent rich of resources. Without nukes. That is very likely going to be the new ‘Lebensraum’ for China after the Balkanization of the US. And Europe and Russia will not defend it against China, but instead will view it as a Siberian problem neatly solved.

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