Marburg Virus Predictions

ohanian · **Joined:** Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1174

Code:

                     t       cases     death                     
March       22       0       107       100       0.06335       42.9387       64.0613
March       23       1                            a             k             c
March       24       2                           n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c              
March       25       3                                   
March       26       4                           Predicted cases              
March       27       5       123       115       123.0015086              
March       28       6                           126.8561785              
March       29       7                           130.9629424              
March       30       8                           135.3382873              
March       31       9       140                 139.9997784              
April       1       10                           144.9661293              
April       2       11                           150.257278              
April       3       12                           155.8944659              
April       4       13                           161.9003241              
April       5       14                           168.2989634              
April       6       15                           175.1160716
April       7       16       200                 182.3790163
April       8       17                           190.1169552
April       9       18                           198.3609527
April       10       19                         207.1441048
April       11       20                         216.5016721
April       12       21                         226.4712212
April       13       22                         237.0927755
April       14       23                         248.4089758
April       15       24                         260.4652519
April       16       25                         273.3100043
April       17       26                         286.9947992
April       18       27                         301.5745751
April       19       28                         317.1078635
April       20       29                         333.6570237
April       21       30                         351.2884934
April       22       31                         370.0730553
April       23       32                         390.0861212
April       24       33                         411.4080349
April       25       34                         434.1243947
April       26       35                         458.3263967
April       27       36                         484.1112014
April       28       37                         511.5823238
April       29       38                         540.8500483
April       30       39                         572.0318722

entropyfails · **Joined:** Wed Jun 30, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 607

Any year end upper and lower bound predictions that you can give?

It may have hit South Africa.

http://www.sabcnews.com/south_africa/he ... 51,00.html

We'll see how your predictions go this month. Thanks for the assessment.

---
EntropyFails
Visit the Peak Oil Wiki at http://www.peakoil.com/wiki and add content!

PhilBiker · **Joined:** Wed Jun 30, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1304

From reading the history of the virus from the Medical Dictionary, it appears that this may be the worst outbreak ever.

NPR Story

ohanian · **Joined:** Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1174

Wow! It seems that even my ghastly predictions were too conservative.

My predictions was 180 cases for 7th April
where as the reality is 205 cases.

Quote:

>> As of 7 April, 205 cases of Marburg haemorrhagic fever have been reported in Angola. Of these, 180 have died. Zaire Province has reported its first 6 cases, bringing the number of affected provinces to seven, all concentrated in the north-western part of the country......

Does this means that the number of cases will exceed 600 by the end of this month as predicted by my equation.

PenultimateManStanding · **Posted:** Fri Apr 08, 2005 4:05 pm

The virus has always been so hot that it burns itself out - in the past anyway. If it hits a big city and breaks out, look out; international mayhem.

ohanian · **Joined:** Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1174

Quote:

The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced that the death toll from the epidemic of Marburg hemorrhagic fever has jumped to 184 from a total of 213 cases recorded in Angola until Saturday.

April 9th : Predicted 198 cases
Actual cases 213

If the April 7th's 200 cases is associated to April 9th's prediction of 198
Then April 9th's 213 cases is associated to April 11th's prediction of 216

Maybe the prediction was not so bad after all. Just off by two days.

ohanian · **Joined:** Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1174

Reformatted for easier viewing.
Added back dated cases and deaths.

Code:

a=     0.06335                    
k=     42.9387                    
c=     64.0613                    
n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c                         
                  t     cases   death   predicted cases
22-March-2005     0     107     100     107
23-March-2005     1                     110
24-March-2005     2                     113
25-March-2005     3                     116
26-March-2005     4                     119
27-March-2005     5     123     115     123
28-March-2005     6     124     117     127
29-March-2005     7                     131
30-March-2005     8     132     127     135
31-March-2005     9     140     132     140
01-April-2005     10                    145
02-April-2005     11    163     150     150
03-April-2005     12                    156
04-April-2005     13                    162
05-April-2005     14    181     156     168
06-April-2005     15                    175
07-April-2005     16    200     174     182
08-April-2005     17    205     180     190
09-April-2005     18    213             198
10-April-2005     19                    207
11-April-2005     20                    217
12-April-2005     21                    226
13-April-2005     22                    237
14-April-2005     23                    248
15-April-2005     24                    260
16-April-2005     25                    273
17-April-2005     26                    287
18-April-2005     27                    302
19-April-2005     28                    317
20-April-2005     29                    334
21-April-2005     30                    351
22-April-2005     31                    370
23-April-2005     32                    390
24-April-2005     33                    411
25-April-2005     34                    434
26-April-2005     35                    458
27-April-2005     36                    484
28-April-2005     37                    512
29-April-2005     38                    541
30-April-2005     39                    572

PenultimateManStanding · **Posted:** Sun Apr 10, 2005 7:45 pm

All previous outbreaks of ebola did burn out and presumably the Marburg filovirus will do the same. As of this weekend it looks as though they haven't got a handle on it yet. If this thing ever gets to 'critical mass' then the world isn't going to have to worry about peak oil. Not likely given that the virus does not spread through the air but only through bodily fluids. And its too hot to spread very far (let's hope so, anyway).

Barbara · **Posted:** Mon Apr 11, 2005 12:25 am

This is very bad... on Recombinomics thay say virus may be spreaded by a vaccine:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04100 ... eding.html

Biowarfare?

entropyfails · **Joined:** Wed Jun 30, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 607

Wow Barbara, good find.

That would give a reason for the people of Angola to attack WHO vehicles of the doctors trying to help. The rumor that a vaccine caused the problem sparked a riot. But it does beg the question, how the hell did vaccine get contaminated with Marburg?

Somebody’s got some questions to answer.

---
EntropyFails
Visit the Peak Oil Wiki at http://www.peakoil.com/wiki

ohanian · **Joined:** Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1174

On Monday 11th April 2005

Quote:

A total of 221 cases of the Marburg virus have been discovered in Angola, out of which 203 resulted in death, putting the mortality rate countrywide from the outbreak at 92%, the health ministry and World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Monday.

The mortality rate of 93% is WRONG.

For every known case of patients in Angola which contracted marburg virus, there is only one patient that survived. Those who are not dead are merely dying.

If you get the virus in Angola, there are only two possible FINAL outcome:

1) You die 203/204=0.99500
2) You survive 1/204=0.00490

A mortality rate of 99.5%

ohanian · **Joined:** Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1174

Quote:

The data above gives detail on where Marburg patients have died, as well as where there are patients who are still alive. The total number of cases is up to 218, which is 62 shy of the record 280 fatalities for Ebola. However, the distribution of the cases suggests the data is lagging the actual cases by 1-2 weeks. Thus, it is likely that the number infected is already well in excess of 280, and since virtually all infected patients have died, a new fatality record has already been set.

Read all about it! http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04100 ... l_218.html

ohanian · **Joined:** Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1174

Quote:

(Rapaport...April 12, 2005) The World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed concern that the rapidly spiraling death toll in the Marburg outbreak in Angola could spread through home care, as families tend their sick at home, without protective gear instead of isolating them in hospital.

This change in behaviour in humans could affect the predicted number of cases.

The purpose of hospital is not to cure the patient of the marburg virus. Its purpose is to isolate the patient from the rest of society.

As people changed their behaviour, this makes the spread of the virus easier.

In terms of prediction, this means the value of a rises from 0.06335
to 0.07? 0.08? 0.09???

So the prediction need to start again at 9th April 2005 as day 18.

Code:

n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c
a=     0.07                   
k=     42.9387                   
c=     unknown

n( t==18 ) = 213

Solve for c.       c= 61.63

n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c
a=     0.07                   
k=     42.9387   
c=     61.63

Code:

n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c                         
                  t     cases   death   predicted cases
22-March-2005     0     107     100     107 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
23-March-2005     1                     110 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
24-March-2005     2                     113 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
25-March-2005     3                     116 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
26-March-2005     4                     119 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
27-March-2005     5     123     115     123 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
28-March-2005     6     124     117     127 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
29-March-2005     7                     131 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
30-March-2005     8     132     127     135 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
31-March-2005     9     140     132     140 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
01-April-2005     10                    145 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
02-April-2005     11    163     150     150 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
03-April-2005     12                    156 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
04-April-2005     13                    162 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
05-April-2005     14    181     156     168 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
06-April-2005     15                    175 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
07-April-2005     16    200     174     182 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
08-April-2005     17    205     180     190 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
09-April-2005     18    213     184     213 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
10-April-2005     19    221     203     224 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
11-April-2005     20                    236 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
12-April-2005     21                    248 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
13-April-2005     22                    262 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
14-April-2005     23                    276 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
15-April-2005     24                    292 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
16-April-2005     25                    309 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
17-April-2005     26                    327 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
18-April-2005     27                    346 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
19-April-2005     28                    366 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
20-April-2005     29                    389 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
21-April-2005     30                    412 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
22-April-2005     31                    438 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
23-April-2005     32                    465 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
24-April-2005     33                    494 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
25-April-2005     34                    526 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
26-April-2005     35                    559 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
27-April-2005     36                    595 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
28-April-2005     37                    634 a=0.08 k=42.9387 c=61.63
29-April-2005     38                    675 a=0.08 k=42.9387 c=61.63
30-April-2005     39                    720 a=0.08 k=42.9387 c=61.63

Somehow deep in my heart I have a bad feeling that I'm going to under predict the number of cases again, just like my original prediction.

ohanian · **Joined:** Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1174

I have run the equation into the DEEP FUTURE.

The number of predicted cases will reach 6 billion on 15th December 2005.

hmmm......

khebab · **Posted:** Tue Apr 12, 2005 7:12 am

ohanian wrote:

I have run the equation into the DEEP FUTURE.

The number of predicted cases will reach 6 billion on 15th December 2005.

hmmm......

What is the mode of transmission of the virus? I have read that it is through bodily fluids. In that case, it can be easily contained.

Marburg Virus Predictions

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