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Page added on December 29, 2014

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World Oil Production, September Numbers

World Oil Production, September Numbers thumbnail

The EIA has published International Energy Statistics with Crude + Condensate numbers for September 2014. As most of you know I only follow Crude + Condensate because I believe that biofuels and natural gas liquids should not be part of the peak oil equation.

The data in all charts is thousand barrels per day with the last data point September 2014.

World

World oil production was up 1,270,000 barrels per day in September. This was somewhat of a shocker. I had expected production to be up about .9 mbd but not this much.

Non-OPEC

Non-OPEC nations accounted for 833,000 bp/d of the increase.

OPEC C+C

And OPEC nations accounted for 438,000 bpd of the increase. The EIA said OPEC produced 32,734,000 barrels per day of C+C in September. OPEC’s “secondary sources” said OPEC produced 30,560,000 barrels of Crude Only in September. OPEC’s crude only production had dropped to 30,053,000 bpd in November, or over half a million barrels per day lower.

Just who were the big gainers and losers in September? They are listed below in thousand barrels per day. All others had no change. “Other” is the combined production of all small producers.

Winners and Losers

Canada was the big gainer, up 420,000 bpd. I have no idea how the EIA came up with such an increase from Canada. Perhaps someone can enlighten us with a comment.

Canada

That huge spike upward just looks strange. I am not yet ready to accept it and I expect it to be revised downward in the next report.

The number 2 gainer, Iraq was up in September but according to the OPEC MOMR they showed little change in October and November.

United Kingdom

The huge gain in UK production was just a return from a lot of maintenance downtime.

The number 4 gainer, Libya, according to the OPEC MOMR was up in September and up a little more in October but dropped 250,000 bpd in November.

United States

The number 5 big gainer in September was the USA, up 168 bpd in September. I believe the US still has some increase in production to come but this will be the last big gainer. That is the last increase of over 100,000 barrels per day for a long while…if ever.

For what it’s worth, JODI also has the US up by 170,000 bpd in September, but JODI has the US down by 155,000 bpd in October. The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly is due out Tuesday December 30th with the USA’s October production numbers. However the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review is already out with November production numbers. There they have US production up by 91,000 bpd in October and up another 108,000 bpd in November. So they are already trying to make a liar out of me.

However the Monthly Energy Review is notorious for over estimating US production numbers. Their data is revised every month, usually downward. The Petroleum Supply Monthly is always far more accurate as they count production from each individual state. Though their numbers are also often revised.

China

China’s slight increase was nothing out of the ordinary, just up and down noise that  can be expected from a mature producer. Daqing, China’s super giant is in decline.

Brazil

Brazil is one nation that has been showing a steady increase for the last few months. But expect them to level out at just a bit above their current production in the next few months.

India

India’s gain was just a recovery from August’s huge decline. It still looks like they are in a slow decline.

Russia

Russia, up slightly in September but headed lower in 2015, or so everyone believes, including Russia.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan has again fallen below 1.6 million bpd. They will be lucky to hold their current production level until Kashagan comes on line sometime in 2017.

Kashagan

Total: Kashagan Oil Project Will Resume Production by 2017

Is this the last hurrah for world oil production? Will we look back and see September 2014 as the all time peak in world oil production? Perhaps but the IEA has world total liquids up slightly in October but down by 340,000 bpd in November.

Baker Hughes North American Rig Count

Rig Count 1Rig Count 2Rig Count 3

Rig count: US rig count dwn 35. Canadian rig count down 135.

The Non-OPEC Charts page has been updated along with the page World Crude Oil Production by Geographical Area with September data.

peak oil barrel



10 Comments on "World Oil Production, September Numbers"

  1. Nony on Mon, 29th Dec 2014 7:06 pm 

    I’d like to get a clarification on something Rock said a while ago about rigs not being horizontal versus vertical. That the same rig can drill either. But BH seems to divide them this way. I’m not an expert on mud motors and geosteering and all. Is it really correct to say there is no difference? Is it just a matter of employment or are there different types of rigs?

  2. Plantagenet on Mon, 29th Dec 2014 7:33 pm 

    Interesting to see global oil production continuing up up up through September. But this oil glut can’t last—–not many people are going to be drilling and fracking new oil wells at these low prices.

  3. Nony on Mon, 29th Dec 2014 7:57 pm 

    It’s called free markets. Capitalism. Supply and demand.

  4. rockman on Mon, 29th Dec 2014 8:47 pm 

    Nony – “That the same rig can drill either”. Yes: hz vs vert is a function of how the well is permitted and not based on the rig drilling it.

    “…mud motors and geosteering”. Actually using a mud motor is not uncommon on vert wells…especially deep ones over 15,000′. Easier to spin a bit at the end of a mud motor then rotate miles of heavy drill pipe. Also the same direction drilling assembly to drill a hz well can be used to drill a directional well. A few months ago I drilled a directional well that built only 20 degrees from vert and used the same Baker directional drilling assembly and hands that are used to drill hz wells.

    There are a small number of “slant rigs” which have derricks that aren’t vertical. But they are used mostly to bore shallow pipeline holes under roads and rivers.

  5. coffeeguyzz on Mon, 29th Dec 2014 9:51 pm 

    Somewhat interesting – perhaps – follow-up on the distinction made above between vert/hz rigs … the number of hz-designated dropped only 6 from a starting figure of 1,356. while the vert designated dropped 15 from last week’s 324.
    That is in sync with the ND DMR’s Lynn Helms saying the shallow rigs in ND have a utilization rate of bout 60%, while the rigs capable of +20,000′ are at 90%.
    In the batch drilling on the pads in ND, the shallow rigs regularly come in and drill/case multiple wells at one time to a depth of about 7,000′ and the big boys follow to finish the job. The frac spreads then arrive and do the stimulation.

  6. coffeeguyzz on Mon, 29th Dec 2014 9:58 pm 

    Canada’x oil rig utilization dropped over 100% in one week?

  7. Nony on Mon, 29th Dec 2014 10:10 pm 

    Thanks for answering.

    I still wonder why BH reports like that then. Would they agree that there’s no difference in rigs, physically? Just how they happen to be employed?

  8. rockman on Tue, 30th Dec 2014 7:01 pm 

    Nony – Check all the BH sites. They talk about the “rotary rig count” stat but distinguishes between rigs drilling wells permitted as hz and vert. And they have a “Well count” stat which specifies details on how each well was drilled…hz or very. I suspect they don’t make the distinction between the type of rig and the type of well because they assume everyone understands what they aren’t explaining.

    In fact, I’m starting to works on a deep geopressred and tite NG sandstone play in S Texas that would be drilled vertically. And in 6 months I’m hoping for a major drop in the day rate for the big rigs I’ll use since those are the same ones the Eagle Ford players are using as those rigs get stacked…hopefully.

  9. Nony on Tue, 30th Dec 2014 9:57 pm 

    1. How much have you seen rates drop for now versus last DEC?

    2. Do you see things changing in the new year? Are there a lot of contracts that are calendar year based? (So we’re not seeing the big drops yet because of contracts running out…but then a huge drop on 01JAN?)

  10. Nony on Wed, 31st Dec 2014 9:15 am 

    Bump for Rock.

    P.s. I see over at POB, that RonP still does not understand how decline percentage (and amount) changes based on the age population of legacy wells. Wonder how DC and Enno can stand it.

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