USA now pumping 10% of world’s crude oil

46 Comments on "USA now pumping 10% of world’s crude oil"

Northwest Resident on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 3:06 pm 



“Untied States”

Freudian slip, I’m sure. The undisputed global leader in tight oil production — what an honor. Revel in it while it lasts. Just like in professional sports — today’s superstar is tomorrow’s has-been. Also keep in mind that the only reason the oil companies are fracturing rock to suck out the oil is because they are OUT of other options. This is the end of the road.

westexas on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 3:19 pm 



Using a conservative estimate that the underlying decline rate from existing US crude oil (crude + condensate) production is about 10%/year (this would be the percentage decline in US crude oil production if no new wells were put on line in 2014), the US has to replace 100% of current production in 10 years–just to maintain current crude oil production for 10 years.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 3:22 pm 



Campbell/Simmons/Deffeyes/Savinar/Ace/Gail failed to predict the shale development. And there was a lot of TOD negativism to the US LTO. Check out Picollo’s post. Rune’s Red Queen. And all the naysayer commenters. Need to eat some crow.

P.s. TOD is dead, like God killing Nietzsche. 😉

ghung on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 3:25 pm 



Ten whole percent? Too bad the US uses, what? around 20%?

ghung on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 3:28 pm 



Nony: “Need to eat some crow”

Will you still be around when it’s your turn?

Northwest Resident on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 3:51 pm 



Nony — Fracturing and tight oil is a minor and barely noticeable blip on the big radar screen in terms of oil produced, but a raging monster in terms of how much it costs to get those pathetic barrels of fractured/tight oil. How you manage to pin so much hope and optimism on unconventional oil/gas is beyond reason, and is just plain loony. Sometimes I get the impression that you know that, but you are just playing goofy. Other times, I think you actually are that deep into la-la land. Which is it?

paulo1 on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 4:05 pm 



Nony,

Many of us are here simply because of TOD shut. I was thinking today how much I miss it, despite liking this site and appreciating how Ron’s site seems to foster similar TOD discussuion. If PO simply was a mistake, then we could worry about GW. But at this point I think the bite of decline will hit much before blatant GW, and with that it will feel like a one two punch in the ring.

Your comments remind me when I used to work with a creationist when I ran a fgish hatchery. Our biggest problem was the genetic narrowing of artificial selection and distrorted survival rates. One day, out of frustration I simply said, “knock it off, evolution is fact…pure and simple. There is no controversy. What did you learn in school? What do you think ther purpose of this breeding program is”?

Do you think your comments negate the incredible decline rates of LTO, or that we forget about them? That is the whole point, crunch is looming, rather, it is here right now. LTO producers spend $1.50 for every $1.00 earned at $100.00 oil. The Red Queen syndrome is fact as for deline rates. How does this negate PO?

Paulo

Pops on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 4:27 pm 



How much of the headline is due to the US using half the rotary rigs in the world to drill in just 14 counties and how much is due to the rest of the world running out of any place at all to drill?

Bakken growth peaked a year and a half ago, TX is getting close, the rest of the world is at peak.

As you imply Paulo, the strength of blind faith is pretty amazing.

eugene on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 4:35 pm 



Like climate change, this debate will go on. Anyone capable of handling a hand held calculator can dispel the tight oil boom in 2-3 minutes. This debate is fact debating opinion and fear based wishful thinking. Resolution is impossible.

Last night in a debate with my son in law, he rattled on with statements from American media with the caveat he is trained in science ie a biology bachelors obtained 3 decades ago and statements like “those researchers are grant based and saying what they’re told to say”. In my head, I’m telling myself “just shut up, this is a senseless exercise in futility”. Facts will never defeat ignorance to people such as this.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 4:46 pm 



Don’t worry about the Bakken, those TOD citizen experts Gail and Picollo have estimated that it will peak at 150-225,000 bpd.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3868

Oops…

ghung on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 4:52 pm 



eugene: “Facts will never defeat ignorance to people such as this.”

Yeah, confirmation bias is strong these days. Folks don’t just hang on to their misconceptions; they nurture them. Easy enough to do in the age of dis-information. It’s why I’ve pretty much given up. I used to write letters to our local paper just stating verifiable facts. No more. The baseless, venomous responses from otherwise descent folks indicated that they didn’t have the capacity to deal with their own cognitive dissonance. They’re ‘all in’ for what they’ve invested their entire lives believing. It’s a scarey thing, when one realizes that most folks simply don’t have the ‘wiggle room’ to consider anything outside of their comfort zones. This is their life, and they’ll hold fast to it, come hell or high water.

This messenger is tired of being shot at.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 4:59 pm 



You mean like Roger Blanchard posting a speculation about EIA overestimating Texas production and that the Eagle Ford will peak at 600,000 bpd? And never updating his post or doing a new one? Even after EF is well past 1,000,000 bpd and the EIA estimates are holding up (RRC is late on their data). And the old post still influencing people, but Roger has still not updated. Seems like the lack of dealing with preconceptions is more an issue for bitter-ender peaksters. TOD refugees.

ghung on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 4:59 pm 



Nony: “Oops…”

Means exactly nothing. The Bakken and all of your other little pets will have virtually no effect on the deeply systemic predicaments we face, except, perhaps, to make things worse. A narrow focus will get you blind-sided. I think you hide inside you little LTO space to avoid looking at the (really) big picture. Just MHO.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 5:09 pm 



ghung:

Maybe. Actually I think if you watch me though, I’m not 100% cornie. For example, I agree with Rock that $100/bbl is a big time problem and very significant.

But in any case, even if I’m incapable of facing facts, that does not change the clear pattern of biased (low) estimates of production from peaksters. And of their failure to do post mortems to learn from their predictions. Or even to caution new readers of flawed posts from long ago (and I do see people relying on old flawed posts). Whether or not I’m flawed does not affect if the peakster writers are–they are independent issues.

Plantagenet on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 5:15 pm 



Oil is power.

The US has oil, therefore the US is powerful.

Boat on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 5:32 pm 



Seems to me very little of the shale deposits have been touched.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14431

Another interesting side note is the amount of Nat gas in the Gulf used to refine oil which gives them a big price difference. World wide there are many more opportunities like this.
Even Europe is considering importing Nat gas to their refineries because it is cheaper than refining with oil.

Lets take into account the new technology allowing semi trucks to improve their MPH over 50%. Over the next 15-20 years this will make a huge impact.

So peak oil may or may not have happened yet but does it matter as much. Huge amounts of Nat gas among many other technologies are waiting to take over.

ghung on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 5:51 pm 



Nony: I think you’ve assigned a status to TOD that it doesn’t deserve. It’s stated mission was Discussions about energy and our future, not “Conclusions” about energy and our future. Just because some participants were, and still are, dogmatic about the implications of our energy situation, the community, as a whole, never was. There was often heated disagreement about a lot of things, and dogma was challenged daily. The best thing about TOD was that, collectively, it was always questioning itself, and being half right about some things doesn’t equate to being totally wrong. To me, that’s not what discussions are for. I suggest you read some of the posts regarding this aspect of TOD. Stuart Staniford: h ttp://www.theoildrum.com/node/10213#more

….There sprang up a large debate about the meaning of these events. The Oil Drum in particular I believe came to function as a central node in this debate, and one of the best places to hear a range of views that were based on a close analysis of the available data. The reason TOD is now coming to a close is that the need for this particular debate is over, at least for the time being. The data have spoken.

One extreme in this debate was what came to be known as cornucopians, epitomized by Daniel Yergin of the consultancy CERA. He made a long series of predictions that oil production would resume growing and prices would fall any day now. This was most famously satirized in a graph by Glenn Morton: ….

….Obviously, this didn’t happen. Oil production has not risen rapidly, and prices have not returned anywhere close to the pre-2004 idea of normal.

Another extreme in the debate were “doomers” who believed that global oil production would begin to fall very rapidly, very soon, because peak oil was upon us. “We’re all gonna die” was the logical implication. One such forecaster was TOD contributor Ace who produced a series of forecasts like this one which showed oil production beginning a precipitous decline as of the date of the forecast:…..

…..The same piece forecast oil prices to rise rapidly and steadily and pass $200/barrel by the end of 2012. That didn’t happen either.

I’m not sure anyone predicted the last eight years perfectly (including me). Still, on the whole, the various “moderates” in the debate came closest. What has actually occurred can best be seen in this graph which shows monthly oil production from a variety of data sources from 2002 onward:…”

So, you keep calling out TOD on things it continuously called itself on. It’s like my first wife: You were wrong” ‘Yes, I was wrong. I said that first”. “But you were wrong”. “Yes. Thank you. I often am.” ” But,, but, you were wrong…..” It never occurred to her how often she was wrong, and I never bothered to call her on it. It was always a one-way conversation. Eventually her best friend told me to run like hell.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 6:11 pm 



Boat — Regarding that link you provided, it makes an honest assessment:

“These shale oil and shale gas resource estimates are highly uncertain and will remain so until they are extensively tested with production wells.”

It is a little too early to jump to the “abundant” conclusion. Also, even if a good percentage of those shale oil and gas resources DO have recoverable quantities on a purely physical/technical basis, the wide range of political and logistical factors that come into play might render a large portion of them into the “practically worthless” category.

Another quote from that article:

“Because they have proven to be quickly producible in large volumes at a relatively low cost, shale / tight oil and shale gas resources have revolutionized U.S. oil and natural gas production…”.

First, definie “large volumes”. I’m pretty sure the oil companies are spending many billions of dollars to extract what — about 7mbd — here in America, in the most secure environment possible. That 7mbd is tiny compared to daily global demand. How does that equate to “large volumn”? Also, the assertion that these shale oils are being produced at a “relatively low cost” is a joke. Chances are, all accounting tricks and hocus-pocus aside, companies are barely breaking even or losing money right here in the USA on shale oil, and that’s with artificially low interest rates which can’t hold forever. Still, the price of oil is around $100 per barrel, and that price is unsustainable, it is breaking the economy. How is that a “relatively low cost”?

Nony — You accusing “doomers” of cherry picking information to support Peak Oil claims is laughable. Cherry-picking info to support unreal claims seems to be your speciality. I’m still waiting for you to explain how America can “easily” produce enough NG to be able to not only stop importing NG but to also become an exporter. That IS a claim you made, and you’re still hanging on that meat hook. How about admitting that you are dead-ass wrong on that foolish claim, then we’ll move on to your next wildly inaccurate claim and debunk it next. First things first — how are we going to “easily” produce enough NG to stop importing and become an exporter — let’s hear your ideas.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 6:12 pm 



I missed the article Picollo/Gail wrote to post analyze why they were wrong. I missed Ace’s post mortem. I missed Rune’s. The reason is they aren’t really truth seekers. I have ultimate respect for someone who says I was wrong, learns from it, and explores it. Just not seeing that.

And (off of TOD), you’ve got Robert Rapier making a prediction of a gas squeeze and rocketing prices in March, which did not happen. And his followup post was disingenuous (e.g. talks about the early FEB $6 squeeze that happened before [not after] his prediction. Or Blanchard with his year old Eagle Ford post (way past, but no correction/analysis from him). Or his kvetching about EIA versus RRC when analysis has shown RRC under-reports recent values. And by not posting updates, his old posts actually STILL TRANSMIT error. I have seen someone recently rely on one of his old, errored posts.

The halfway decent people like Saniford, Mearns, and Rapier bailed out of that place because they have intellectual integrity and the peaker crap from 2005-2008 was way, way, way oversold.

ghung on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 6:26 pm 



“…and the peaker crap from 2005-2008 was way, way, way oversold.”

Was it? Seems the world is desperately seeking oil; more so than ever before. Even your beloved Bakken has been a feeding frenzy. Spending is up much more than production. Exports are becoming flat. Pundits are screaming louder like they’re trying to scare away the monsters. Majors are talking “other energy”.

Suggest you step back and look at what’s really going on. I notice you rarely, if ever, call the pro-oil cornucopians on their failed predictions. Says a lot.

paulo1 on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 6:57 pm 



Nony (and a few others),

I think the ‘peaker crap’ you refer to, for the most part, was concluding that we are on an Undulating Plateau of production from 2005 that will constrain unlimited economic growth. It matters not that we are up a few hundred thousand barrels or down, it is that there have not been any huge ‘game changer’ finds, including LTO. It wasn’t too long ago my friends would hail Brazil’s deepwater as the event that would change the world, but as time passed the production did not materialize. Occasionally, a find of some million(s) barrels or even billions have been touted and then a quick calculation indicates the monumental new find is 1 or two weeks of world consumption. Of course the billions are always conjecture resources, and not proven production reserves. Some Peak Oilers have gone out on a limb and predicted this year or next will be the start of real measureable production decline, regardless, no one of any knowledge is predicting everything a-okay beyond 2030. Oil production security to 2020 will be an unbelieveable gift in providing time to better transition and prepare, (for individuals, because all governments seem to be unable to acknowledge PO in their plans and forecasts). And then there are the militaries of the world. Not only are the savvy professionals admitting to pretty imminent PO and decline, Germany and US are openly discussing coping strategies going forward. I don’t think they are wrong in not wanting to be caught flatfooted. Politicians seem to be counting on wars to maintain supply, and keeping their citizens uninformed to maintain support and compliance at home.

I will continue to make personal plans for my family to better cope with declining energy resources. When I look at my children I know they will face many more challenges than I have faced. The least I can do is pass on some land, houses, and tools. This is certainly more practical, and responsible, than riding out my retirement years on a reverse mortgage golf course McMansion in Arizona, or wasting our family resources on a new vehicle purchase that we really don’t need.

I continue to urge anyone reading this to get your economic house in order and get rid of all debt, live within your means going forward, obtain some useable skills that others may be able to appreciate and will make you a useful person to have around, grow much of your own food, and build up a useful community of friends and neighbours. Work on becoming healthy and get in good physical condition. I may have PO blinders on, but in my heart I know it makes good sense to approach the future with a plan and not simply believe all will be just hunky dory awesome because a few outlier predictions have yet to materialize.

Paulo

GregT on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 6:57 pm 



NWR said:

“Nony………How about admitting that you are dead-ass wrong on that foolish claim, then we’ll move on to your next wildly inaccurate claim and debunk it next.”

Nony said:

“I have ultimate respect for someone who says I was wrong, learns from it, and explores it.”

Unless, of course, that someone is you, Nony.

Theodore on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 7:09 pm 



Paulo1,

Evolution is a fairy tale, it is not scientific and there is no real evidence for it.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 7:15 pm 



NR: We’re not going to make extra gas and just stockpile it! It has to go somewhere. With no exports, what happens is price drops and there’s a share battle. US and Canadian gas is trapped, stranded. Other than a little bit to Mexico, there’s nowhere for it to go without export capability. The point is that with moderate price increases, rigs move back into drilling gas and huge volumes are available. Do you realize how much US marketed gas is being produced with how few rigs now?

you tube: EJOYzSO8Vj0 (watch about 12:00 to 16:00)

you tube: 0YBk5gIvNGY (about 20:00-28:00)

I’m not giving links because the spam thing doesn’t like it. but you can put the code into the search window of youtube.

BTW, no push, but I think you (or someone here) can learn a lot from just watching the whole videos. You don’t have to buy everything. But these guys are not Jim Cramer. They are professionals and leaders in the industry. Don’t just stick to Ron and Pops and Gail and your comfort zones. [There are also some very good panels by Duke Fuqua b-school (with Eads and one other guy), by Texas Monthly (even has Berman on it), and one other on the Marcellus that has Berman and has that Penn St Marcellus professor.]

Bottom line: we are NOT running out of natural gas in the US and we make huge amounts from shale wells with very few rigs needed for drilling. You need to realize gas and oil have very different dynamics in producing and in availability. and be willing to face facts.

The Universe on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 7:16 pm 



@Nony

You said:
“Don’t worry about the Bakken, those TOD citizen experts Gail and Picollo have estimated that it will peak at 150-225,000 bpd.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3868
Oops…”

The article predicts nothing of the sort. The most that is claimed is that 225,000 barrels per day would be a challenging number to meet and that if it were met or exceeded the peak production rate of the resource would last a short time.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 7:19 pm 



The undulating plateu (a little bit edging up) has been true). However the “nosedive to the desert”, die-off, localization, gas cliff, twilight in the desert, shark fins, and 2%/year (Campbell) predictions have been very very wrong.

Heck Simmons was predicting $500 oil. Hamilton was predicting $200 oil.

If you want to say we have not gone back to the 1985-2005 20/bbl regime and are five times higher, great point and I (have already REPEATEDLY) noted it was significant. That said, I really think Internet groups are about socializing and about hearing people who agree with you. There’s a reason why you all are hanging out here instead of going to conferences on unconventional oil and the like.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 7:20 pm 



The Universe: “…it seems unlikely that total Bakken production will exceed 2x to 3x current rate of 75,000 BOPD.” DIRECT QUOTE.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 7:35 pm 



NR: Here’s some analysis of NG exporting.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2012/05/02-lng-exports-ebinger (click download full report)

See in particular

A. pages 3-6 “Owing to technological improvements and the availability of associated dry gas at liquids rich plays, dry production is keeping pace despite the declining rig count (see Figure 3).”

B. pages 28-33 (5 different studies of gas volume versus supply price)

****

P.s. If you want to criticize any of these experts, any of these reports, fine. Please do so with insight and with data. And please realize that there is clearly a difference in the scale of the analyses here compared to some article by Gail or one of your bloggers. Just the sheer scale of work and analysis.

rockman on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 7:42 pm 



Nony – “…we are NOT running out of natural gas in the US”. In reality the US ran out of NG more than 40 years ago. That is if you mean we don’t have enough domestic production to meet demand. The US has been a net NG importer from before 1970. Today the US has to import about 7% of our NG consumption. So yes: we still produce a lot of NG but not as much as we consume. And haven’t for about a half century.

rockman on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 7:46 pm 



And once again the redundant response: “Shale and other dense rock, newly accessible because of advancements in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling” Not new: we were horizontally drilling and frac’ng the unconventional tite Austin Chalk reservoir 20 years ago when it was the hottest oil play on the planet. What’s new, as all here already understand, is $100/bbl oil.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 7:53 pm 



We’ve only run out of it in the sense that Canada makes some that is cheaper and is linked to us by the hip. It’s a share battle with no outlet…

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 7:56 pm 



We had not perfected the techniques used in modern shale gas during the old Austin Chalk days. George Mitchell spent decades drilling in the Barnett working on completion techniques. Zipper fracs, multistage plug and perf, etc. were not practiced technology. Every single article I get (including from real geologists) talks about both price AND technology advancements driving shale unlocking. And FWIW, shale gas is taking share from conventional gas and doing it at reasonable prices with rising overall volumes. Something was advanced, Rock. Something in our knowledge of geology or our ability to frack better.

GregT on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 8:11 pm 



NWR said:

Nony, ……First things first — how are we going to “easily” produce enough NG to stop importing and become an exporter — let’s hear your ideas.

All of the mumble jumbo aside. The United States is a NET IMPORTER of Natural Gas, period.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 8:36 pm 



Drill more wells. We are producing a lot of gas right now with very few rigs.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/gasrigs-600×360.jpg

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 8:43 pm 



Many look at that chart. Just stare at it and think about it! That’s beating the Red Queen with one hand behind the back.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6Hey54O6Qs

GregT on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 9:13 pm 



Seeing as Nony cannot accept being wrong, learn from it, and explore it, back to the original subject;

USA now pumping 10% of world’s crude oil

As ghung so aptly pointed out above; Ten whole percent? Too bad the US uses, what? around 20%?

The US is still a Net Importer of oil as well. 10% would be great news, if the economy didn’t rely on cheap energy. Meanwhile, the debt hole continues to be dug exponentially deeper……..

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 9:25 pm 



We’re also a net exporter of petroleum refined products. 2 billion bpd. Maybe 2-3% of global supply? Still not a net exporter, but more in that direction…

GregT on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 9:32 pm 



Not a net exporter since 1970. Over forty years ago. The only direction is increased economic contraction, and more debt. Just like everywhere else, post Peak OIL.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 9:40 pm 



Peak Oil deniers will NEVER face the fact that we’re running out of oil — not unless gas lines start forming, cars/trucks start running out of gas along the side of the road, and the president of the USA sends American troops to some foreign country to get “our” oil back.

More likely, the price of oil/gas will keep going up and up, but some people (not to point fingers) will find articles and factoids to explain that the reason for rising prices has to do with anything BUT decreasing oil supplies. Their ego, their honor, their self worth and their sense of well-being is locked into the belief that oil will never peak, we’ll just keep finding ways to squeeze more of out of the ground.

Case in point? See above…

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 10:18 pm 



natural gas is pretty cheap…

GregT on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 10:46 pm 



Natural gas does not run modern industrial society. Natural gas heats my home in the winter and is easily replaced with wood. Oil cannot be replaced by any technology, or energy source that we are currently aware of. Tens of millions of years worth, of ancient stored sunlight, was a one time deal. We did not utilize this energy source wisely, we squandered it on creature comforts, and unnecessary human technologies. In a few decades, we will need to learn to live without oil once again, on a planet that we have destroyed, by using fossil fuels in the first place.

Nony on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 11:06 pm 



GregT:

I agree. Oil is valuable stuff and gas is far from an easy substitute for many uses.

My point on this stuff is never, “hey don’t worry about oil, we’ve got gas”. But to try to get doomers to stop confounding the two and to at least see the clear, clear, clear mistake that was made on the “gas cliff”. so that they upgrade their intellectual honesty and do better in the future on whatever they analyze/predict.

Kenz300 on Fri, 28th Mar 2014 11:24 pm 



Climate Change …………..

There are alternatives to fossil fuels……..

Makati1 on Sat, 29th Mar 2014 10:27 am 



And then there is the fact that the US uses twice what it pumps…

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 29th Mar 2014 11:59 am 



Makati, at least US pumps 50% of it’s use, has significant coal reserves, gas reserves, and altE potentials. The US has the biggest low hanging fruit to pick with efficiency and lifestyle changes to reduce that energy consumption. How much does the Philippians pump, what about the EU, what about your poster girl China that is heading quickly in the wrong direction. The US has a diversified economy with lots of food exports. Food is the new oil Makati. It represents the next frontier of political weapons. Places like KSA will be looking to the US trading oil for food. They will have all they need of the Cheap Chinese consumer junk and low quality furniture.

energy investor on Sun, 30th Mar 2014 8:46 pm 



Nony,
Canada is not joined to the USA at the hip at all. It is joined to the USA via NAFTA. Were it not for NAFTA, Canada would be exporting to places where it can get more for its oil (and possibly for its gas).