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US Will Be the World’s Largest Oil Producer by 2023, Says IEA

Production

The U.S. will overtake Russia to become the world’s largest oil producer by 2023, accounting for most of the global growth in petroleum supplies, a top industry monitor said Monday.

U.S. crude production is expected to reach a record of 12.1 million barrels a day in 2023, up about 2 million barrels a day from this year, said the International Energy Agency, which advises governments and corporations on industry trends. American oil output will surge past Russia, currently the world’s largest crude producer at about 11 million barrels a day.

The IEA’s closely watched five-year forecast showed the U.S. hitting new strides in its oil and gas boom, helped by technological advances, improved efficiency and a fragile recovery in oil prices that is encouraging shale companies to ramp up their drilling. Once heavily dependent on imports from the Middle East, the U.S. is getting closer to achieving its goal of producing enough crude to meet domestic demand for refined products like gasoline.

Of the 6.4 million new barrels of oil that will be pumped every day between now and 2023, almost 60% will come from the U.S., the IEA said.

American influence on global oil markets is also expected to rise, with U.S. oil exports more than doubling to 4.9 million barrels a day by 2023, according to the IEA. Until 2015, the U.S. didn’t export any crude oil by law, but in five years it is expected to be among the world’s biggest exporters.

The IEA’s report also highlights the changing role of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a group of producers that historically dominated world oil markets.

Dominant FutureU.S. crude-oil production is expected to rise inthe next five years.Cumulative change since 2017Source: International Energy AgencyNote: 2018 onward are projections.
.million barrels a day2017’18’19’20’21’22’230.00.51.01.52.02.53.02021×2.7 million barrels a day

Oil production is expected to grow in Canada, Brazil and Norway—all countries outside of OPEC. Together with the U.S., those three countries will add enough barrels to meet growing consumption to the end of the decade, the IEA said. Within OPEC, only the Middle East is expected to see any increase in output, as other members like Venezuela struggle with internal problems.

Saudi Arabia’s crude-output capacity is expected to reach 12.3 million barrels a day in 2023, meaning it could rival the U.S. for the top spot as a producer. But the Saudis have historically pumped well below their capacity to maintain their importance as a so-called swing supplier that could increase or decrease output as the market needs.

Counting all liquids, including those derived from natural gas, U.S. production will rise to nearly 17 million barrels a day over the next five years from about 13 million today, the IEA said, far more than Saudi Arabia or Russia.

Still, without more investment outside the U.S., growth in production begins to slow after 2020, the IEA said. A dramatic slump in oil prices since 2014 has eviscerated investment in the sector outside U.S. hot spots.

The IEA warned that companies will need to start spending again to avoid the potential for crude-oil shortages that could cause prices to surge.

Consumption of oil will remain robust, shrinking the gap between demand for crude and producers’ capacity to pump it to the lowest level since 2007—when oil prices were on a run toward record levels over $140 a barrel.

The IEA sees little sign that oil demand will peak in the next five years, weighing in on a debate over whether efforts to curb the impact of climate change could eventually limit global oil consumption. Oil demand is expected to go above 100 million barrels a day for the first time next year, rising by a total of 6.9 million barrels a day to 104.7 million barrels a day by 2023.

WSJ



30 Comments on "US Will Be the World’s Largest Oil Producer by 2023, Says IEA"

  1. Anonymouse1 on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 6:15 am 

    RoFL

  2. CAM on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 7:53 am 

    We are saved!! Oil now, oil tomorrow, oil forever! IEA’s forecasts are never wrong, they are published on the “Internet”! They must be true. We can now close down this site forever.
    Really!!

  3. Shortend on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 8:00 am 

    Looks like the plan is the same…just new methods to trash the planet.

  4. Anonymous on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 9:14 am 

    Unless prices drop under $50, I expect we pass Russia during 2019. Perhaps even this year. We have already just passed the Saudis.

  5. Sissyfuss on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 9:15 am 

    As Trump participates with gusto in the race for what’s left we will enjoy one last orgy of Bacchanalian delight in the form of happy motoring and planned obsolescence. It will get increasingly more difficult to ignore the cascading horrors of dying oceans and ruined habitat with the concomitant luxury of wet bulb temps. The participants in this drama will find their noses stuck to a screen that projects all is well messages right up to the day when they all go dark.

  6. Duncan Idaho on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 9:51 am 

    “As Trump participates with gusto in the race for what’s left we will enjoy one last orgy of Bacchanalian delight in the form of happy motoring and planned obsolescence.”

    He has been bankrupt 4 times——

  7. Mark on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 10:00 am 

    Sounds like serious “magical thinking” Won’t the shale production have make up for rapidly declining traditional reserves + new growth world wide?

  8. Green People's Media on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 10:11 am 

    Both the EIA and the IEA are raging Anthropogenic Climate-change denier agencies.

    Look out, low-lying places: 450 ppm CO2, here we come !

  9. GregT on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 10:36 am 

    NTHE just keeps on looking more and more likely.

  10. Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 11:14 am 

    Green Media — stay off my side. Claiming the people reporting (using scientists and geologists) what production and consumption are likely to be under various economic scenarios doesn’t mean they’re “denier agencies”.

    Merely that they’re reporting on the real world, based on how the people and politicians in it behave.

    If you want to shout at people, shout at the people who mindlessly spend based on all they can earn AND borrow, and the politicians they elect in their search of BAU with ongoing maximizing of wealth (i.e. consumption) for their families, and the hell with everyone else and the future.

    Yelling about those who report on the reality is misguided at best.

  11. Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 11:17 am 

    Anon: Strong (random) response as usual. Great facts and links, etc. to back up your point. Therefore we should take your attitude SO much more seriously than the credible reporting organizations. (NOT)

  12. MASTERMIND on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 11:21 am 

    Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html

    World’s No.1 Oil Trader: U.S. To See Final Oil Output Spike In 2018
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Worlds-No1-Oil-Trader-US-To-See-Final-Oil-Output-Spike-In-2018.html

    2020s To Be A Decade of Disorder For Oil
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/2020s-To-Be-A-Decade-of-Disorder-For-Oil.html

  13. MASTERMIND on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 11:33 am 

    IEA warns of oil supply crunch after 2020

    https://www.ft.com/content/e424c4b0-204a-11e8-a895-1ba1f72c2c11

  14. MASTERMIND on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 11:53 am 

    IEA: Russia’s oil output to reach its peak in 2020

    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/IEA-Russia%E2%80%99s-oil-output-to-reach-its-peak-in-2020.html

  15. GregT on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 12:11 pm 

    Another ‘good find’ MM.

    IEA: Russia’s oil output to reach its peak in 2020

    “The IEA said that a tax reform in Russia’s oil industry, including the so-called tax maneuver and introduction of an additional income taxation system, could become the key drivers of oil production growth in the long-term”

    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/IEA-Russia%E2%80%99s-oil-output-to-reach-its-peak-in-2020.html

  16. GregT on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 12:18 pm 

    And another one:

    IEA warns of oil supply crunch after 2020

    “The IEA estimates that without sufficient spending on the supply side of the oil industry, spare capacity will drop to just over 2% of demand; the lowest proportion since 2007.”

    “However, it said “it is not too late to avert a [oil] supply crunch, provided companies start to sanction development work without delay”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/e424c4b0-204a-11e8-a895-1ba1f72c2c11

    Do you not even bother to read the articles that you link MM?

  17. joe on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 1:22 pm 

    Tight oil is tight oil, no matter what they say. Its a drain on the bottom line. Its still cheaper to ship it in from Saudi. So why the big investment? Why build up an inferior product which needs more processing? Hmmm. Are they expecting a reason to be energy independent? My wardar says yes. Mecca will be nuked soon by the Zionists.

  18. MASTERMIND on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 1:52 pm 

    Greg

    Do you not even bother to read the articles that you link MM?

    I just posted the exact title and the link! Why do you assume I didn’t ready it?

  19. MASTERMIND on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 2:02 pm 

    Greg

    Stop trying to censor the blog! Next you will be wanting to burn books! I know clogg would love nothing more than to burn all of Richard Heinbergs excellent books!

  20. Davy on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 2:14 pm 

    greggie pricks, he doesn’t read or say much. He gave me an empty “rebuttals?” Demand in an above comment but gave no indication of what he thought I should give a rebuttal on. greggie just tries to make a name for himself. He want us all to know how smart and tough he is. He is a braggart and he exhibits hollow respectability. What I mean by this is he acts respectable and he criticizes other for not being respectable but then he does what he is criticizing. IOW an ugly hypocrite. He accuses others of name calling but he does it. He is a mental case. He has told us on this forum he is in therepy so I presume this dysfunctional behavior is part of that.

  21. MASTERMIND on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 2:40 pm 

    Davy

    Greg is what happens when you leave the ship of fools (society) and become a prepper. He seemed fairly reasonable at first. Now he is going full circle tin foil hat talking about “The creator of Jellkel Island”. Next he be squealing about the Rothschild’s!

  22. MASTERMIND on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 2:46 pm 

    Shale Trailblazer Turns Skeptic on Soaring U.S. Oil Production -Wall Street Journal

    We’ve been on a peak oil production plateau since 2005. All the talk about energy independence, a century of fracked oil and natural gas, and that U.S. production will long swamp global supplies, perpetuating lower prices is BS, according to Mark Papa, the former chief executive of industry bellwether EOG Resources Inc.

    “… in an interview he told the assemblage of oil chieftains that a widely held view that shale oil producers can quickly ramp up production, and sustain those levels if needed, is wrong.
    Mr. Papa told executives and investors that most of the best drilling locations in North Dakota and South Texas have already been tapped. He has lately called out rivals for being too optimistic about their prospects. And he points to recent operational challenges such as sand shortages that companies have disclosed in the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, the hottest U.S. drilling region, as a harbinger.

    Such constraints, coupled with mounting investor demands for returns, will equate to much slower U.S. oil production growth than what most forecasts expect, he said.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/shale-trailblazer-turns-skeptic-on-soaring-u-s-oil-production-1520257595

  23. Anonymouse1 on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 2:49 pm 

    You’re projecting, again, still, dumbass. The only one convinced by it, is you. Besides, why should anyone waste more than a couple lines with you? You’ve proven time and again, that you are deeply disturbed and unbalanced. And utterly unwilling to leave your backwoods shack and seek whatever passes for professional mental health care in Missishiti.

  24. bobinget on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 3:07 pm 

    “There must be a pony in here someplace”

  25. Davy on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 3:16 pm 

    Weasel, are you upset because I exposed your lame anonymity? We all know you couldn’t make it as an engineer. We know you can rarely form a coherent comment. We also know the majority of your activity on this form is stalking and pricking. With this in mind why would I care about what you say about me? You are
    Illegitimate and little more than noise.

  26. Cloggie on Mon, 5th Mar 2018 3:19 pm 

    Stop trying to censor the blog! Next you will be wanting to burn books! I know clogg would love nothing more than to burn all of Richard Heinbergs excellent books!

    I would indeed, but only for the caloric value of otherwise worthless piece of paper. The good man can write what he wants, I’ll never touch anything written by him again though.

    #StoriesForInTheFirePlace

  27. rockman on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 10:13 am 

    “Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude” Well, double DAH! At its peak US shale plays can’t meet the CURRENT US demand let alone the global demand.

  28. Anonymous on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 1:15 pm 

    growth in demand 1.Y

    This may be true (likely is). But it is not a no brainer. Last year there was 1.7 MM bopd growth in consumption and 1.2 MM bopd of US production growth. So last year it was correct. But you can see how those numbers are starting to get close to each other–are of same order of magnitude.

  29. Anonymous on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 1:17 pm 

    (Last answer got cut off on top, sorry.)

    Chevron is discussing growth in volume consumed versus growth in US shale. This is a much closer match than the total volume consumed versus US shale. (It’s kind of silly to even bring that up.)

  30. Kat C on Wed, 7th Mar 2018 3:44 am 

    Since we use 19 mbpd if we produce 17 we are still a net oil importer so that makes a negative mark on our balance of trade which we have to make up with other things we produce. Russia produces 11 and uses 3 so they have a big positive on their balance of trade.

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