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Page added on January 2, 2018

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US Shale Can’t Offset Record-Low Oil Discoveries

Production

The U.S. shale resurgence has been one of the main themes in oil markets this year, while OPEC’s production cut deal to deplete the oil overhang and boost oil prices has been the other key development in 2017.

U.S. shale production is expected to grow over the next few years as the companies that survived the worst of the downturn showed resilience in the face of the lower-for-longer oil prices. But three years of low oil prices also led to the global oil industry slashing investments in conventional oil exploration, and deferring or revisiting development plans.

This has led to the lowest ever volumes of oil discoveries in 2017, Rystad Energy said last week. While the low level of discoveries is not an immediate threat to global oil supply, it could become such ten years down the road, according to Rystad Energy.

In ten years’ time, U.S. shale production may have peaked, at least according to OPEC that sees shale peaking after 2025, although the cartel has conceded that U.S. tight oil has defied previous forecasts and has increased production more than initially expected and will continue to do so in the short term.

This year has seen less than 7 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered globally, a volume as low as last seen in the 1940s, Rystad Energy has estimated. What worries analysts the most is the fact that this year the reserve replacement ratio—the amount of discovered resources relative to the amount of production—was a mere 11 percent, compared to 50 percent in 2012, Sonia Mladá Passos, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy, said.

The Biggest Factors In Future Oil Production

Another point of concern is that the resources discovered per field also dropped, and this could affect the commercial viability of new discoveries.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

olduvai.ca



8 Comments on "US Shale Can’t Offset Record-Low Oil Discoveries"

  1. MASTERMIND on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 4:45 pm 

    Such bullshit this writer blames everything on the low oil price. Too bad the price is not low. The average price for a barrel of oil from 1960 – 1999 was 19 dollars a barrel (05 Inflation Adjusted).. So that is a lie. And we have discovered less oil than we are consuming ever year since 1984.

    As M. King Hubbert (1962) shows, Peak Oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Saudi Aramco CEO sees oil supply shortage coming as investments, discoveries drop
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aramco-oil/aramco-ceo-sees-oil-supply-shortage-as-investments-discoveries-drop-idUSKBN19V0KR

    Peak Oil Vindicated by the IEA and Saudi Arabia

  2. MASTERMIND on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 4:46 pm 

    The last law of nature says: that any creature that despoils and out-breeds its natural habitat will be culled to bring its numbers under control and restore a stable environment.

  3. ____________________________________________ on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 5:49 pm 

    Really? Don’t worry about it. Bitcoin contains infinite energy

  4. Sissyfuss on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 6:38 pm 

    _______________, don’t give me that line of BS.

  5. shortonoil on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 6:53 pm 

    “The average price for a barrel of oil from 1960 – 1999 was 19 dollars a barrel (05 Inflation Adjusted)”

    The average price of WTI between 1960-1999 was $12.97. The weighted average was $11.68 (nominal). That is according to our software (ETPVB-Production) and the EIA data set for yearly production. If that routine has a bug in it, please let us know.

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org

  6. deadly on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 5:23 am 

    There has been too much reliance on fossil fuels since the 1800s.

    Now is the time to reduce the use of coal and oil, it can be done. Electricity can do that.

    Increase solar and hydro for generation of electricity. Ocean water can be pumped to increase hydro generation of electricity.

    It will reduce the use of fossil fuels.

    I guess wind turbines are essential, but the insane amount of wind turbines is analogous to the insane amounts of fossil fuels consumed.

    Something will give.

    For the future, solar and hydro can be more beneficial and contribute more to the reduction in the use of fossil fuels.

    A passive destruction of demand can be done.

    For the future of energy, electricity plays the major role.

    Have a good day.

  7. dave thompson on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 12:17 pm 

    No worries we can burn old tires and sofas to make up any short fall. Many here will agree.

  8. Go Speed Racer on Thu, 4th Jan 2018 2:10 am 

    YA! Agree !
    Infinite energy from old garbage.

    Sure of it.

    Here is the link:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkl9Lv2rqtw

    There are 2 problems with this facility:
    1. Wicked evil Governor Jay Inslee,
    a whining sissy liberal communist crybaby
    socialist shit head from hell who loves
    ISIS and queers, wants to shut
    down this facility and throw all the garbage
    into the ocean to choke the whales.
    Be sure to NOT vote for shit bag Jay Inslee.

    2. This facility produces NO SMOKE due to
    extensive stack-scrubbing equipment. However
    we could remove that equipment to get back
    our nice big black rooster-tail cloud of
    toxic black smoke. And if we throw in lots
    of tires and old sofa’s there would be
    even more black smoke, maybe visible from
    outer space.

    Be sure to write a letter to their management
    asking for the smoke scrubbing equipment to
    be disconnected.

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