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Page added on May 11, 2018

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Shale Skeptic Forecasts Imminent Demise for Permian and Eagle Ford

Production

The geologist who earned the wrath of shale drillers a decade ago with forecasts that natural gas was about to run out is now warning that the Permian Basin has just seven years of proven oil reserves left.

Arthur Berman, a former Amoco scientist who now works as an industry consultant near Houston, said the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico that currently pumps more oil than any other North American field won’t last for long. And the Eagle Ford shale about 350 miles (560 kilometers) away in South Texas isn’t looking good either.

Berman’s grim outlook, based on analyses of reserves and production data from more than a dozen prominent shale drillers, flies in the face predictions from the U.S. Energy Department, Chevron Corp. and others that the Permian is becoming one of the dominant forces in global crude markets.

Permian output already exceeds that of three-fourths of OPEC members.

“The best years are behind us,” Berman told a gathering of engineers, geologists, lawyers and financiers at the Texas Energy Council’s annual gathering in Dallas on Thursday. “The growth is done.”

Berman came to prominence as a shale skeptic and peak-oil advocate during the first decade of the new century, when intensive fracking and sideways drilling techniques were just beginning to unlock vast reserves of gas from shale fields in Texas and Louisiana. At the time, his dire warnings that shale gas was mostly hype drew the ire of fracking pioneers including Devon Energy Corp. and Chesapeake Energy Corp.

In 2009, Devon’s exploration chief Dave Hager — who has since risen to CEO — published an op-ed piece in an Oklahoma City newspaper to refute Berman’s thesis. In it, Hager likened shale to a World Series-winning home run and said Berman “is in the stands speculating on whether the slugger is on steroids.”

Berman on Thursday said investors banking on shale fields to make major contributions to future global crude supplies will be disappointed: “The reserves are respectable but they ain’t great and ain’t going to save the world.”

Still, he hasn’t sold the stock of shale driller EOG Resources Inc. that he inherited from his deceased father “because they’re a pretty good company.”

His parting advice to the assembled was, “Conserve what you’ve got, learn to live with less, open your eyes and enjoy the rest of your day.” No one participated in the Q and A session.

bloomberg



38 Comments on "Shale Skeptic Forecasts Imminent Demise for Permian and Eagle Ford"

  1. rockman on Fri, 11th May 2018 10:14 am 

    “Imminent”: time frame not defined therefor meaningless. All trends will die as they are depleted. Always have…always will.

  2. joe on Fri, 11th May 2018 10:21 am 

    Sombody has to scare up some doubt. The words like ‘limitless’ and ‘unprecedented’ being bandied about cause complacency and stunts greed and risk takers.

  3. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 11:52 am 

    Rockman

    Imminent means in the near term ie 1-10 years. Keep denying the evidence big guy. you know everything because you are an old crusty boomer. Who has sat in board rooms. And post links from the daily caller….LOL

  4. Anonymous on Fri, 11th May 2018 12:04 pm 

    Berman has gotten spanked hard by shale over the years. He never predicted the growth and several times expected declines that did not happen. Shale gas was the most dramatic but he was wrong on oil also.

    Not sure why anyone would listen to him. He’s a crank. And not that smart either.

  5. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 12:07 pm 

    Right now the world is using ten times as much oil as it discovers each year…If that isn’t alarming, I don’t know what is.

    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  6. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 12:10 pm 

    Anonymous

    Shale has lost a quarter trillion dollars as an industry so far. So I wouldn’t exactly consider that a success. Shale is a low quality oil that has to be blended with other oils to be refined. Its not much of a substitute if it can’t do any substituting. And what happened to the “Shale King” Aubrey who called out Berman? He lobotomized himself with his truck!

    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  7. Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 11th May 2018 12:47 pm 

    Minimind: imminent means “about to happen”. Look it up.

    Ten years is NOT imminent.

    Your guess is just that, a guess. And given the nature of your many random guesses, claims, it’s at least as meaningless as the claim in the article.

    But it has a negative flavor, so you like that. Got it.

    Berman is citing no data. Each field is different. We may as well be listening to a random number generator, like the ETP huckster.

  8. Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 11th May 2018 12:50 pm 

    Anon – fast crash doomers will listen to him. After all, they flock to zerohedge despite its terrible track record re frequently predicting short term doomish news, and almost always being wrong.

    As the great John Couger Mellencamp siad in “Walk Tall”: “People believe what they want to believe, when it makes no sense at all”.

  9. Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 11th May 2018 12:51 pm 

    Anon — I meant said, not siad. I HATE that there’s no edit function for these comments.

  10. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 1:07 pm 

    Outcast

    Berman sites the reserve figures from the shale companies SEC filings…And I said 1-10 years. Nice straw man though.

    You see the world through rose colored glasses!

  11. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 1:46 pm 

    There were no questions asked of Art after his presentation..That is very telling. The reason is that people who want to learn ask questions. So obviously nobody wanted to learn what Art was presenting.

  12. Anonymous on Fri, 11th May 2018 2:12 pm 

    US marketed gas production has grown from 20.2 TCF in 2007 to 28.8 TCF in 2017.

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2a.htm

    That’s a growth of 8.6 TCF or 43% over the last decade. That’s the complete opposite of an industry in decline.

    Oh…and we are maintaining that high production and still growing with PRICE sub $3. You can’t even make the Rockman oil argument that this is local growth because of high world prices (you can make that argument with oil). That is uh-mazing!

  13. marmico on Fri, 11th May 2018 2:17 pm 

    Art Berman has been a bloviating, blathering blowhard about shale oil and gas for years. He should just retire.

    http://commongroundrising.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/09-28-U.S.-Shale-Oil-Boom-May-Not-Last-as-Fracking-Wells-Lack-Staying-Power.pdf

  14. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 2:18 pm 

    Annoumous

    Why don’t you read the emails from the shale companies and geologist who worked for them that were leaked to the new york times.

    Here are my favorites

    Shale is a ponzi

    Drill fast con wall street

    We are headed for an Enron momement

    Insider Documents: Industry Privately Skeptical of Shale Gas
    https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/us/natural-gas-drilling-down-documents-4-intro.html

  15. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 2:20 pm 

    The Shale Gas Revolution Is A Media Myth
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-Shale-Gas-Revolution-Is-A-Media-Myth.html

    Also Wood Mac agrees with Berman and they are an independent organization.

    Is Peak Permian Only 3 Years Away?
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-Peak-Permian-Only-3-Years-Away.html

  16. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 2:21 pm 

    Hedge fund star David Einhorn calls fracking companies a joke

    http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/04/investing/david-einhorn-oil-fracking-terrible-investment/index.html

  17. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 2:25 pm 

    Shale is a ponzi that needs to be shut down by the Nevada gaming commission…

  18. Harquebus on Fri, 11th May 2018 4:53 pm 

    Diminishing energy returns per capita means recession or growing debt bubble. Increasing energy returns per capita means real economic growth, not financial growth and repaying that debt.

    Global debt is increasing. The shale hype is bullshit and the industry will die along with the rest of our modern industrial system that supports it.

    I keep advocating high unemployment, economic contraction, zero births for a decade, population reduction, a return to more traditional farming etc. It ain’t gonna happen so, the consequences of pursuing ‘growth at any cost’ are now inevitable, unfortunately.

    For Civilization: This Is Necessary (Life Feeds On Life) 3 min.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6gzIrV5Ae0

  19. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 4:55 pm 

    His parting advice to the assembled was, “Conserve what you’ve got, learn to live with less, open your eyes and enjoy the rest of your day.”

    https://www.godlikeproductions.com/sm/c3549d16.gif

  20. makati1 on Fri, 11th May 2018 5:32 pm 

    MM, 60% of the last 20 comments are yours. Get a job and do something useful. LOL

  21. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 6:17 pm 

    makati1

    Get a girlfriend. I doubt you can though. No woman wants to be with an old impotent man who wears diapers soon..

  22. Davy on Fri, 11th May 2018 6:46 pm 

    mm, 3rd world has a boyfriend.

  23. Jerome on Fri, 11th May 2018 7:05 pm 

    Art Berman is right about the shale plays and relies on reported figures from the fields done for the State of Texas. Most people don’t want to deal with the reality of our shared situation and in 10 years or less we won’t have a choice. The only reason these fields have been productive is the massive amount of ponzu money that has been thrown at them.

  24. makati1 on Fri, 11th May 2018 7:19 pm 

    You like to spread lies, Davy? Just like the American MSM. ‘Partner’ means business partner, nothing more. But you are nothing but a frustrated goat heard, hidden in the Ozarks by your embarrassed 1%er family. LOL

  25. makati1 on Fri, 11th May 2018 7:22 pm 

    MM, been there, done that for 28+ years. No need for a new chain. Freedom is being able to do what you want, when you want, where you want and with whom you want. You will never know freedom. Never.

  26. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th May 2018 7:39 pm 

    Madkat

    Just wait till the oil crisis hits. Your president will force you to work hard labor..

  27. Davy on Sat, 12th May 2018 12:20 am 

    “You like to spread lies”
    A live in guy partner is a boyfriend 3rd world. You are too old for sex anyway. Ooo, I am a goat herder and a 1%er lol, you can’t make up your mind but I am your moderator that is for sure. Everything you have said now for years gets neutered if it is extreme and distorted. Most of what you say anymore is extreme and distorted so pretty much you get moderated daily.

  28. makati1 on Sat, 12th May 2018 12:42 am 

    You keep taking those drugs, Davy. They are really good hallucinogens*. LSD? PCP?

    *Hallucinogens are a diverse group of drugs that alter perception (awareness of surrounding objects and conditions), thoughts, and feelings. They cause hallucinations, or sensations and images that seem real though they are not. BINGO!

    You are nothing Davy. A huge fat zero. But your ego will not let you accept that fact. Keep sucking at the family teat. It is all you can do.

    Friends can share a house. Actually, my part could be called a “granny wing” except I am male. Maybe mini-condo, with a lifetime lease, would be a better description. It’s done all the time in the world. Even in the Us. It is part of the BUSINESS arrangement.

    All you and MM can do is take your mind into the gutter, fantasize, think sex, or spew immature bullshit. I’m building a new, very secure future here. What are you building? An outhouse? LMAO

  29. makati1 on Sat, 12th May 2018 12:53 am 

    Independent America? Bullshit!

    “China has exclusive manufacturing agreements for drugs for anesthesia, cancer and HIV/AIDS, along with other medicines that “we use every day, not only in hospitals but in our own medicine chests,” Gibson says, adding that —– China is now the world’s ONLY source of antibiotics, —- including the main ingredient in vancomycin, a treatment of last resort that is used by patients who are suffering from infections that are resistant to other treatment….

    Multinational drug companies, many of them headquartered in the United States, began buying ingredients for critical drugs in China after the U.S.-China Fair Trade Agreement passed nearly two decades ago. State-owned Chinese companies, buoyed by heavy government subsidies, set their prices so low that they were able to undercut established manufacturers in the U.S. and elsewhere, prompting them to shut down their plants and move their operations to China, the authors say….

    Shifting production to China has made millions for the companies and their shareholders but hasn’t trickled down to U.S. consumers, who are still paying more than consumers anywhere else in the world for their drugs. “The drug companies don’t care about the United States,” Slane says. “They only care about profits.””

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/09/chinas-lock-on-drugs-could-be-a-problem-for-trump–and-your-cold.html

    BTW: Antibiotics cost only $10 for a dozen pills here and can be bought without a prescription or doctor visit. What do you pay, American serf? $60 to a doctor you see for <2 minutes and a prescription for 12 pills that probably coast $10 each?

  30. Davy on Sat, 12th May 2018 1:05 am 

    “You keep taking those drugs, Davy.”
    Translation: I don’t have a rational response so I say that Davy is on drugs.

    “You are nothing Davy. A huge fat zero. But your ego will not let you accept that fact. Keep sucking at the family teat. It is all you can do.”
    I work for a living and live off my investments. You just live off your social security which you don’t deserve you don’t do anything and for that matter too old to do anything but whine, bitch, and moan about a country that is paying your way.

    “granny wing” except I am male.”
    It is debatable if you are a male. Most of the time you are a bitch.

    “All you and MM can do is take your mind into the gutter, fantasize, think sex, or spew immature bullshit. I’m building a new, very secure future here. What are you building? An outhouse? LMAO”
    Shut up 3rd world. I don’t talk sex like mm and you know it. I get sex and you don’t. I have a better life than you do. Your secure future is a 3rd world shit hole without health insurance as you push 80. Somehow that is not very secure in my book. Oh sure you have your Medicare if you can get back to the state then where are you going to stay? You will probably end up back in the place you hate because of your health. That sounds like to me a mental health nightmare foe you that has preach anti-American hate for 10 years. Nope, you don’t have much future as soon as your health goes as it always does for men in their 80’s

  31. Davy on Sat, 12th May 2018 1:11 am 

    “Independent America? Bullshit!”
    3rd world, nobody is independent anymore so get a grip. If China was so independent why are they whining and moaning about Trump’s tough trade stances? Why do they have to carefully follow what the fed does? Their currency follows the dollar in a flexible pegging.

    “China is now the world’s ONLY source of antibiotics”
    Nonsense

    “BTW: Antibiotics cost only $10 for a dozen pills here and can be bought without a prescription or doctor visit.What do you pay, American serf? $60 to a doctor you see for <2 minutes and a prescription for 12 pills that probably coast $10 each?”
    Nonsense. No prescription with antibiotics is not a good idea in a 3rd world country that is how you build up drug resistance, 3rd world, but you are not smart enough to understand that.

  32. makati1 on Sat, 12th May 2018 2:06 am 

    Davy, the Us is more dependent on the rest of the world than the rest of the world is dependent on the Us. No amount of your denial changes that fact. The Us produces nothing of necessity. Not even food. Should the imports stop, the us would have nothing to export or even use. You might get tired of corn and wheat after a while, assuming that the crops don’t fail from drought or extreme weather. Something that seems more and more likely in the future.

    “I work for a living”. BULLSHIT! If you were4 working for a living you would not be on here 24/7/365 for hours at a time. When I was raising a family and working, I had few minutes, much less hours, to waste. Don’t try to bullshit someone who has been there and done that. What “investments”? The family dole?

    And then the immature Davy pops up when he cannot refute the facts. “It is debatable if you are a male. Most of the time you are a bitch.” Well, all of the time, you are a deluded, insane hick. You like to make other’s lives seem inferior to your because your ego is so big it will not allow anyone to be better than you. Most here are.

    BTW: I have never used any Medicare and don’t need it. I have no idea how it even works. I can get ALL the medical care I might need right here, for cash, and a lot cheaper, but better, than any in the Us. But, again, you do not believe that I do not need my SS. You cannot conceive that someone can be totally independent. TOTALLY INDEPENDENT. You will NEVER be.

  33. makati1 on Sat, 12th May 2018 2:14 am 

    “No prescription with antibiotics is not a good idea in a 3rd world country that is how you build up drug resistance, 3rd world, but you are not smart enough to understand that.”

    Deluded Davy. People here do not abuse drugs. Most cannot afford something they do not need. But then, all you have for reference is the drugged up America, a $70,000,000,000. plus drug habit not to mention the illegal drugs.

    Part of my preps are drugs. I don’t need a prescription to get and store them. You do. I can buy generics of almost everything for a small fraction of what you pay at your local drugstore. What will you do when you get pneumonia and there is no store to buy antibiotics, or anything? Die? So be it.

  34. makati1 on Sat, 12th May 2018 2:23 am 

    Davy: “…Nope, you don’t have much future as soon as your health goes as it always does for men in their 80’s” Well my “80s” are still six years in the future. The Us will be a much worse place by then. No reason to come back.

    Hmm. My mom lived to be a few months short of 90. My dad lived to be 88. I have a
    living uncle that is 94. Uncles on both sides of the family lived well into their 80s. Of course they had a few age related problems. So will I, maybe. But by then the Us will not exist to “come back to”. At least I hope it is gone. Maybe divided up into parts like Cloggie claims or just a 3rd world ‘shithole’, as you call them. More likely the latter. Well deserved.

  35. Anonymouse1 on Sat, 12th May 2018 4:03 am 

    Does mashing a refresh button on his browser 24\7\365 qualify as ‘work’ now in exceptionalandia? If so, then davyturd here is the hardest working lump of quasi-organic material in the state of missishiti.

  36. Davy on Sat, 12th May 2018 5:59 am 

    “Davy, the Us is more dependent on the rest of the world than the rest of the world is dependent on the Us. No amount of your denial changes that fact. The Us produces nothing of necessity. Not even food.”
    Geeze, 3rd word, we have been over this. The US is one of the top two largest economies. The US is the largest exporter of food. That should be enough to counter that stupidity

    “Should the imports stop, the us would have nothing to export or even use. You might get tired of corn and wheat after a while”
    We will be eating while you Asians are starving

    “I work for a living”. BULLSHIT! If you were4 working for a living you would not be on here 24/7/365 for hours at a time.
    3rd world, I am here in the morning when I get up to have coffee, at lunch, and following dinner. During my hard day of work I enjoy taking my breaks by neutering extremist. I use my cell phone. That is not rocket science. We have been over this before too. I hate the thought of getting old and forgetful like you.

    “When I was raising a family and working, I had few minutes, much less hours, to waste. “
    That is because you were an uneducated construction laborer. There is nothing wrong with that but you don’t belong on a forum like this talking out your ass so much as you do.

    “What “investments”? The family dole?”
    I actually succeeded in life and didn’t end up as a failure and run off to a faraway place leaving my family in shame. Now by your admission you live on social security.

    “BTW: I have never used any Medicare and don’t need it. I have no idea how it even works. I can get ALL the medical care I might need right here, for cash, and a lot cheaper”
    BS, 3rd world, a major condition and you are screwed. You will be back in the states living with a kid that will take you back. You will be so upset you are back but you will likely be bed or wheel chair bound.

    “you do not believe that I do not need my SS. You cannot conceive that someone can be totally independent. TOTALLY INDEPENDENT. You will NEVER be.”
    You are a slave to your social security check. If no check arrives your boyfriend would kick you out. You can’t work so you will either be homeless in the P’s are back with the kids. You are not free.

  37. Davy on Sat, 12th May 2018 6:02 am 

    “My mom lived to be a few months short of 90.”

    3rd world that does not mean you will. They lived in the states too. You are in a 3rd world shit hole little town on the Pacific coast of the P’s where tropical diseases are rampant especially following the many typhoons in your future.

  38. Davy on Sat, 12th May 2018 6:05 am 

    weasel, we know you don’t have a job because you are still struggling to be an engineer and likely encountering huge debt in the process. Besides who would hire a numbnut like you? I can understand your anger because failures are painful.

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