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Page added on June 14, 2018

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Permian Oil Production To More Than Double By 2023

Production

A new report by research firm IHS Markit says oil production from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico could more than double by 2023.

The report predicts “stunning” growth, saying about 41,000 new wells could increase production from the nation’s top oilfield by almost three million barrels per day in the years ahead.

As U.S. oil imports have declined since a peak in 2006, and with refiners preferring a different type of oil than what’s coming out of the Permian boom, Texas is poised to increasingly fuel other countries.

“Basically you can take it as a given that every new drop of oil that’s produced has to be exported,” said Raoul LeBlanc, a top energy analyst at IHS Markit.

Oil companies are rushing to build more pipelines to move all the new oil to the Gulf Coast, where it will be increasingly exported to growing economies like China, already the second-largest customer for U.S. oil behind Canada.

“It’s going to make us the third or fourth largest exporter [of oil] in the world within a few years,” LeBlanc said.

The Port of Corpus Christi is in the midst of a $350 million effort to deepen and widen its ship channel, which would make room for massive oil export tankers that can’t currently navigate most U.S. ports. The port recently secured almost $23 million from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for that project.

LeBlanc said the anticipated production growth in the Permian will be driven by fracking and rising demand from around the world. Drillers are also responding faster to jumps in oil prices than ever before, he said.

houston public media



103 Comments on "Permian Oil Production To More Than Double By 2023"

  1. twocats on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 6:53 am 

    IHS owns CERA and their Chief Executive in Resources used to be COO for CERA – that’s about all you need to know about this article.

  2. MASTERMIND on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 7:35 am 

    Twocats

    Thanks for that..I suspected something wasn’t right..WoodMac has the Permian peaking around 2021..Looks like all the shale eggs are in one rickety basket now..

  3. Dredd on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 7:40 am 

    Sea level changes will follow suit (Build Your Own Thermosteric Computational System).

    Oil-Qaeda may even discover Newton.

  4. MASTERMIND on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 7:50 am 

    ECB lowers 2018 eurozone growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.1% -AP

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1007242607880298497

    That is half way below the world average of 3.5..Halfway below average..LOL

    If fascism is capitalism in decay, Europe is in decay..Now just wait until Trump nails them with tariffs to try to accelerate their collapse…

    LFMAO!!

  5. Twocats on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 8:22 am 

    I know the market is trying to play it off but if ECB follows through in taper and ending QE and US doesn’t look ready to start up again (also reducing balance sheet). And China is flirting with credit collapse. I don’t think BOE and BOJ can tow this shipwreck on their own. Could get interesting by EOY

  6. Twocats on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 8:29 am 

    So what’s interesting is that the whole coordinated global balance sheet expansion was if not explicitly coordinated at least done in a mutually beneficial way. There are two types of games : cooperative and competitive. We might be moving from the former to the later. Trump was aided in this movement. Nothing is certain right now. Very dangerous time. If global everything bubble bursts it’s going to get very chaotic very quickly.

  7. Twocats on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 8:29 am 

    Latter†

  8. Davy on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 8:49 am 

    There are two types of games competitive and cooperative. Globalism must have both to function effectively because of competitive nature of comparative advantage but also fair and free trade through cooperation. Since this is always a moving target it is the place in between that determines the status quo. Looks like a more competitive world on some levels but at the central bank level likely more cooperative. Maybe not always now but once a aggregte recessionary trend becomes entrenched they will likely cooperate out of mutual survival.

  9. deadly on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 8:57 am 

    Drilling and Completion costs are very similar across all onshore plays. This report will be focused on the Permian Basin where the average drilled well costs between $6.6 MM to $8.1 MM (2014 data) and $5.0MM to $9.3MM (currently).

    Permian

    5,000,000 times 41,000 equals 205,000,000,000 dollars of minimum investment to drill those wells.

    At 9,000,000,000 per well is 369,000,000,000 dollars.

    41,000 wells pumping an average of one hundred barrels per well per day is 4.1 million barrels, times 70 is 287 million dollars.

    It will take 1300 days to gain back the investment on those 41,000 wells.

    373.1 billion is what you get when you multiply 1300 times 41,000.

    It’ll take 20 years to get those wells at 2000 drilled each year.

    Twenty years of heavy work to gain a profit of 4 million dollars.

    After that, it will be all gravy. Money coming out of everyone’s ears.

  10. BobInget on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 10:12 am 

    Headlines are often intended as incentives.
    Rat now a debate rages, should we invest in “pipelines for Permian” or stay w/tanker trucks.

    My thought. Due to high condensate content of Permian ‘crude’ it’s almost a given, there will be
    deadly ‘YouTube Worthy’ accidents.

    As it happens, even if an extra pipeline pays for itself in four years and Permian peters, what then?

  11. BobInget on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 10:18 am 

    Our captive driller will be happy to drill wells for nine Billion each.
    Deadly, be careful, your computer has just so many zeros.

    Still, your conclusion is correct.

  12. GregT on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 10:42 am 

    “There are two types of games competitive and cooperative.”

    In a competitive game there is only one winner, while in a cooperative game everybody wins. Yet another reason why capitalism is not sustainable and is doomed to fail.

  13. deadly on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 10:48 am 

    I posted a correction to nine million, but it was lost in the ether.

  14. BobInget on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 10:52 am 

    Saudis are sayin: Demand is growing, (over 1%)
    OPEC will indeed raise production.
    Here are facts;

    For the first five months of the year China’s crude oil imports were 9.21 million bpd, according to customs data, a rise of 690,000 bpd on the same period in 2017.

    India’s crude imports were 4.57 million bpd in the January-May period, up 272,000 bpd from the same period last year, according to vessel and port data and industry sources.

    Together these two countries, the world’s biggest and third-largest crude importers, have brought in 962,000 bpd more in the first five months of 2018 than in same period last year.

    Just ‘little’ problems.
    Nigeria is going through another pipeline explosion period. (just Google it)

    Venezuela’s oil workers are leaving town in droves. VZ hasn’t funds to automate.

    Saudi Arabia ALREADY dancing as fast as they can.

    Get ready for much higher oil prices and spot shortages. OPEC, Trump, will simply blame hot WW demand.

    OR: This hurricane season could exceed past
    ocean ‘surge’. GOM and other refineries are often near ports of entry. DUH.
    Now, people can evacuate but refineries?

    Oceans (GOM in particular) are getting hotter.
    Hard to deny water expands when heated.

    Do we build new refineries inland in light of failing supply? (OK) ‘uncertain’?

    Do we try to protect existing refineries when ‘our dear leader’ denies existence of the problem?

  15. Davy on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 11:11 am 

    “In a competitive game there is only one winner, while in a cooperative game everybody wins.”

    Yea, if you are talking play games. When we are talking globalism we are talking a different level. Game is used loosely here. We should be saying systematic nature of a global economics. This is serious business of survival not a play game of fun. Tell me greggie, what comes after capitalism? You have no friggen clue. What likely comes after is much less economic activity and population. There is no happy ending here and most lose not win. This is the consequences of overshoot. Cooperation means more will win than lose, maybe, it depends on who is forced out and who survives and how the process unfolds. This game is not fair and not controllable. It is nature itself causing the end of the game. Nature is generally balanced and not always fair. Cooperative nature of the human element of nature means nature can show balance and fairness but only after we pay the price for overshoot.

  16. twocats on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 11:45 am 

    Agreed Davy – I’m not a particularly competitive person but there are clear advantages, especially in the margins and extremes, where competition has outsized rewards for performance, quality and innovation.

    of course – most of the last vestiges of competitive capitalism were eliminated ten years ago. We are in the cannibal, corruption, and cancer stages where pillaging is more highly rewarded than honest competition. we could argue whether this was “inevitable” for capitalism – but it seems hard to deny the reality.

  17. Davy on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 12:09 pm 

    I agree two cats corruption is the systematic fail of globalism. With is comes economic abandonment, dysfunctional networks, and irrational policy. The next step is crisisi and the bifurcation of the system itself.

  18. JuanP on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 12:13 pm 

    Goaaaaaal! Goooooooooal! Goooooooal! Goooooal! Gooooooooooooooal! Go Russia!
    Russia 5 – Saudi Arabia 0
    What a great day for Russia, Russians, Putin, and the world! Russia couldn’t possibly have asked for a better result. The Russians beat the crap out of the Saudis. Russia wins the Russia 2018 FIFA World Cup opening game in Moscow earning 3 points and a positive 5 goal difference. I couldn’t be happier right now. I am going to troll the board’s imperialists like crazy for a day and rub this amazing triumph on their faces. GO RUSSIA!

  19. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 2:11 pm 

    Sarah Sanders preparing to leave White House: report http://hill.cm/wSBjUyV

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1007316013476610049

    “I’m tired of standing up and lying to the press everyday. @FoxNews offered me a chair.”

  20. Anonymous on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 7:18 pm 

    Shale has been taking the peak oilers to the woodshed. Just holding them down and grinding them. Hard.

    How’s TOD? ASPO? Staniford?

    Yeah, I thought so.

  21. Daho Nackum on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 7:19 pm 

    Peak oil was in 2005. Matt Simmons told us that KSA was tapped out and in production collapse. All they have produced since 2005 is “ghost oil” which only burns if you believe it burns. RIP Matt. You called it dude.

  22. MASTERMIND on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 7:39 pm 

    Anonymous

    The End of the Oil Age is Imminent!

    Recently, the HSBC oil report stated that 80% of conventional oil fields were declining at a rate of 5-7% per year. This means that there will be an oil shortage of ~30 million barrels per day by 2030 and ~40 million barrels per day by 2040.
    http://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

    What is mentioned far less often is that annual oil discoveries have lagged annual production since the 1980s.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

    Now, this problem has nothing to do with the recent decline in the oil price, which started in 2014. This has been an on-going problem for the past 30 years. Now, the IEA is predicting oil shortages by ~2020 due to declining exploration.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Here, the IEA blames this problem on the low oil price. But, this problem started in the 1980s. The problem is geological: we are running out of conventional cheap oil. Shale and tar sands are not the answer, either. Those resources are far too expensive, compared to conventional oil, because the global economy is based on cheap conventional oil. Expensive oil is not a replacement for cheap oil.

    Based upon the HSBC report and the IEA, the End of Oil Age will start around ~2020: there will be a dramatic economic depression due to exhaustion of cheap oil. This will cause a global economic collapse.

  23. MASTERMIND on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 7:41 pm 

    Annyomouse

    As M. King Hubbert (1956) shows, peak oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.

    Oil discoveries in 2017 hit all-time low –Houston Chronicle
    https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php

    Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html

  24. MASTERMIND on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 7:42 pm 

    Annyomouse

    Financial catastrophe resulting from resource depletion and a debasement of value of fiat currencies. Then a 3-month window of tyranny and government lockdown on citizens, followed by a 3-month window of absolute carnage and death. Then, a period of about 6 months of slow die-off and that’s pretty much that. Oh, and starting sometime within the next 5 years or so…

    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
    https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg

  25. Makati1 on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 7:44 pm 

    MM, less oil only means higher prices and less waste, not the end of everything. It means that America is going to go thru withdraw pains as it weans itself off of cheap energy. That pain will be much less in those places that do not waste oil like the Ps.

  26. Sissyfuss on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 9:54 pm 

    Juan, it’s not hard to beat the Saudis in soccer when they have a camel playing goal.

  27. Makati1 on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 10:04 pm 

    Hahahahahahahahha! Thanks Sissyfuss. I appreciate a good laugh now and then. ^_^

  28. GregT on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 10:27 pm 

    Financial catastrophe resulting from resource depletion and a debasement of value of fiat currencies. Then a 3-month window of tyranny and government lockdown on citizens, followed by a 3-month window of absolute carnage and death. Then, a period of about 6 months of slow die-off and that’s pretty much that.”

    Sucks to be you, Baby doomer. I’d love to help you out, but you have an extremely poor work ethic, and attitude.

  29. GregT on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 11:00 pm 

    And Baby-d,

    If Rebecca, (if she really exists) has any brains in her head at all, she would be much better served by kicking your sorry loser ass out ASAP.

    No woman needs, or deserves, a spineless sad excuse of a ‘man’ like yourself.

    And if you had have come sniffing around my family, the two of us would have had a little conversation, and I can assure you, you never would have come back.

  30. MASTERMIND on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 11:27 pm 

    Greg is triggered! Must have hit a nerve!

    https://imgur.com/a/xkD66AE

    LMFAO!

  31. GregT on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 11:37 pm 

    You’re an idiot MM, and a complete waste of space. Please do everyone here a favour, and carry out your brilliant plan for yourself sooner, rather than later.

  32. Makati1 on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 11:38 pm 

    MM, did I just hear an echo of Davy? LOL

  33. GregT on Thu, 14th Jun 2018 11:49 pm 

    Same delusional, full of bullshit, total loser Makati.

  34. MASTERMIND on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 12:00 am 

    Greg, I am delusional?

    who is the one spreading WW2 conspiracy theories and won’t even put them to a test of an expert to examine?

  35. GregT on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 12:23 am 

    You are an idiot MM, plain and simple. You have the intelligence of a pet rock.

  36. marmico on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 3:37 am 

    You are an idiot MM, plain and simple. You have the intelligence of a pet rock.

    That’s why Baby Doomer is affiliated with and assimilated by The Turdburger Tribe. Same shit, different color, served up twice a month.

    Thanks to the Permian, hours worked to buy 10 gallons gasoline is relatively low. The same as 1991, adjusted for vehicle fuel economy.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jBcB

  37. Davy on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 3:58 am 

    “Same delusional, full of bullshit, total loser Makati.”

    grehggie, if you can’t take the heat get out of the kitchen. You are obviously upset and angry. You and 3rd world are the board losers and have taken this board into the gutter.

  38. Makati1 on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 5:15 am 

    Davy chimes in with his usual bullshit, third grade putdowns and other meaningless posts, again.

  39. GregT on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 11:05 am 

    “You and 3rd world are the board losers and have taken this board into the gutter.”

    You would be the only one here who supports MM Davy, and both of you are the reason why this board has gone into the gutter.

  40. Davy on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 11:18 am 

    Greggie, if you stop your anti-Americanism and start respecting people when we have debates things could change. Stop enabling extremist and stop your obsessive stalking and pricking of Americans you hate. We can make this a better forum but it start with you. This all started with you and your groupies desire to make this forum an anti-American magnet. If you don’t change you are in my cross hairs and you will have no rest. I promise you like I promised your buddy 3rd world.

  41. JuanP on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 11:20 am 

    Davy/Hello “We can make this a better forum but it start with you.”
    You are completely insane, exceptionalist!

  42. JuanP on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 11:22 am 

    Greg, Check out the other thread where Davy talks to his sock puppet, Hello, and actually replies to himself. It’s hilarious! LOL! He has obviously completely lost it. Only someone like him could think he can fool us!

  43. JuanP on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 11:25 am 

    Davy, You provoked me and I warned you twice, now I am going to make you my bitch for the next three months, pussy! LOL! You are not going to get a break this time. Go get fucked by your goats to release yourself.

  44. JuanP on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 11:26 am 

    Davy “You and 3rd world are the board losers and have taken this board into the gutter.”
    Projecting again, exceptionalist? LOL! Fuck, you are one pathetic loser!

  45. GregT on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 11:30 am 

    “Greggie, if you stop your anti-Americanism and start respecting people when we have debates things could change.”

    As I have pointed out to you numerous times before Davy, I couldn’t care less which tax farm you were born into. You are a delusional whack job, and as long as you keep spamming this board with your constant name calling, childish rhetoric, and delusional accusations, I will continue to call your bullshit out.

  46. GregT on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 11:49 am 

    And Davy,

    A debate is when people discuss, like adults, opposing opinions. If everyone held the same opinions, there would be nothing to debate.

    You don’t get to tell other people what they are allowed to think, believe, or say.

  47. MASTERMIND on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 12:06 pm 

    Greg

    Financial catastrophe resulting from resource depletion and a debasement of value of fiat currencies. Then a 3-month window of tyranny and government lockdown on citizens, followed by a 3-month window of absolute carnage and death. Then, a period of about 6 months of slow die-off and that’s pretty much that. Oh, and starting sometime within the next 5 years or so…

    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
    https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg

  48. JuanP on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 12:13 pm 

    Nanomind, Can you post your links again, please? Pretty please? LOL! I am glad to see that you finally woke up because your buddy, Davy/Hello, chickened out and left to visit his goat. LOL!

  49. JuanP on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 12:15 pm 

    And, Slavemind, please remind me what will happen to the daughter I don’t have when the collapse comes. I find that whole roaming cannibal rapists narrative infinitely entertaining! LOL!

  50. MASTERMIND on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 12:20 pm 

    JuanP

    I made a manifesto of collapse..Karl Marx ain’t got shit on MM..

    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

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