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Page added on March 1, 2018
Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?
On February 23, 2018, this from the blog:
Peak oil? What peak oil? During the past two years there have been numerous articles on lack of investment in offshore projects which some suggest are desperately needed to forestall a shortage of oil in the out year (think, “Peak Oil”). Today, from a GlobalData press release: investment of $97 billion on top ten offshore oil projects will add 1.6 million bopd by 2025. Looks like we have a successful project
Looks like we have a success project. ExxonMobil projects 500,000 bopd from the Guyana play. Data points:
- ExxonMobil has made a seventh oil discovery off-shore Guyana’s deepwater Stabroek blck; this play will eventually expand to 500,000 bopd
- reservoir: 65 feet of high-quality, oil-bearing sandstone
- ExxonMobil’s first discovery in this area was back in May, 2015: discovered more than 1 billion bbls of oil equivalent; API 32 crude (heavy oil)
- estimated recoverable resources from Stabroek exceed 3.2 billioin of boe
Much more at the link.
But look at that: the GlobalData article suggested an additional 1.6 million bopd by 2025. ExxonMobil added one-half million after one successful well. This suggests to me that the “1.6 million bopd” figure is on the low side. By a lot.
themilliondollarway
17 Comments on "Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?"
pointer on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 7:30 am
Well, then, everything is just coming up roses! No need to ask pesky questions, like, “So that debt doesn’t really matter?”, “So oil will be available and cheap indefinitely?”, “So EROEI is a Chinese hoax?”, etc. hahahahahahaha
Darrell Cloud on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 8:20 am
I’m all for it. If we can keep the lights on for the next fifty years, replicators and warp cores may very well become a reality. I’ve seen enough house fires to convince me that I need insurance. I have walked through the ruins of enough failed empires to convince me that empires do indeed collapse. So, I will continue to look after my insurance policy against systematic collapse. The hubris of perpetuity is not supported by the facts.
Norman Pagett on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 8:58 am
we burn through 25bn barrels of oil a year
that makes a ”find” of 1 bn barrels of ”recoverable oil” sufficient for 15 days supply
this is where our oil addiction is taking us:
https://extranewsfeed.com/from-oilslick-to-tyranny-e35d04b31fc3
bobinget on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 9:38 am
Venezuela’s crude oil export fell below 1 Million-Barrel mark, down 930 kb/d yoy/OPEC exports saw a sharp drop again in February, with steep declines for Venezuela, KSA and Kuwait
Antius on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 9:50 am
A few rough estimates show this to be baseless optimism. The world consumes about 92mbl per day. Of that, about 74mbl is conventional oil, about 6mbl is tight oil, with the remainder being tarsands, biofuels, NG liquids and refinery gains. Let’s concentrate on conventional and tight oil only.
Most conventional oil is now past peak. Average depletion rate of conventional past peak is 5-7% per year. Let’s say 5% per year overall. That’s a loss of 3.7mbl per day per year.
Shale oil has depletion rate on average of 50% per year. That’s a loss of 3mbl per day per year.
That means that the world must develop enough new capacity to provide an additional 6.7mbl per day every single year. An additional ‘1.6 million bopd by 2025’ isn’t going to cut it. That’s about 3% of what we need just to keep oil production flat between now and then.
bobinget on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 10:57 am
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43239331
Learn to respect Putin’s President Trump.
bobinget on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 11:14 am
Like the cut of your jib Antius. Keep posting.
If we’ve learned to get along with transgential tight oil, (cause we depend on it). Why not oil-sands?
After-all, it’s oil sands that made Venezuela & Canada #1 & #2 greatest reserve nations.
SPR puts off doomsday for another year.
Exporting crude and SPR drawing everyday,
Then what?
We have No cogent, national energy strategy.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels per
day, up by 2.7% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline
product supplied averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, up by 3.8% from the same period
last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged over 4.0 million barrels per day over
the last four weeks, up by 0.9% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied
is up 9.4% compared to the same four-week period last year.
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending February 23, 2018 (EIA)
Boat on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 11:19 am
The world is so awash with oil Opec/Russia have cut over 2 mbpd out of production giving up market share to the US and Canada.
Boat on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 11:26 am
Bob,
Think of all those thousands of drilled but uncompleted Wells as the US SPR. Every month the US drills over 100 Wells they don’t frack.
Davy on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 11:41 am
If we have a strong economic decline we are going to see significant oil demand destruction. This is rarely acknowledged amoung comments on oil production. We are due for something. The business cycle has been adapted but I doubt eliminated.
bobinget on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 12:31 pm
W/out doubt, ‘economic downturn’ is coming.
So is death.
For now, we are high on a lethal, coked up Republican Tax cut.
See that EIA consumption repore…posted above.
IMO drug induced euphoria, crashes..
This election year, Republicans will offer up
additional stimulus to keep balls in the air
till November. (it won’t work)
When, not if, Democrats control BOTH houses
we get hit upside the head by reality.
(known as “downer”) A biblical market crash..
Davy on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 1:26 pm
Geeze bob, are you capable of thinking outside of the dem/rep mindset. It is so intellectually lame. There is so much more to DC than your thinking. In fact attitudes like you have may be responsible for 4 more years of Trump.
Anonymous on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 3:12 pm
The US has just set a new record for oil production.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-production/u-s-crude-oil-production-hit-record-high-in-november-eia-idUSKCN1GC2PB
Kind of really pricks a balloon of the peak oilers which was that the US example (peak and terminal decline) was foreboder of World Peak Oil.
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2007/05/peak_oil_in_ame [James Hamilton]
“The following is an article I prepared for the Peak Oil Review, which is produced by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. The United States was blessed with abundant reserves of crude petroleum, high quality and easily taken from the ground. Up until 1973, we were the world’s biggest producer of crude oil…
However, the amount of oil produced in America each year has been on a path of inexorable decline now for two generations. That decline occurred despite the discovery and development of the supergiant field in Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay, despite the fact that the U.S. drilled as many feet of exploratory and development wells between 1981-1985 as it had from 1951-1965, despite the fact that an increasing fraction of U.S. crude oil production has been coming from under the sea (and that from ever-increasing depths), and despite tremendous technological advances over this period.
The long-continuing and inexorable decline in U.S. crude oil production resulted not from a lack of cleverness or paucity of effort, but instead is the necessary consequence of the geologic reality that oil is a depletable resource– you can’t take the same oil out of the ground twice. No matter what we do, we can’t turn the clock back to 1970.”
OOPS! We did turn the clock back. James Hamilton, meester econ prof hanging out with peak oilers needs to write an article and say “I wuz wrong”.
Cloggie on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 7:38 am
It is early 2018 so performance data over 2017 trickle in.
My country the Netherlands has about the lowest percentage of renewable electricity penetration in Europe. There are several reasons for that:
1. flat land, so no easy hydro power available, which the rest of the world installed a long time ago
2. largest natural gas field in Europe, the main reason why Holland did so well over the past decades
3. by far the largest per capita fossil fuel consumption in Europe (because of potent industry), so it is more difficult for the Dutch to replace 1% fossil electricity with renewable energy than say for the Spanish.
Nevertheless, good progress was made in Holland last year:
https://www.nu.nl/economie/5156705/windmolens-en-zonnepanelen-wekken-weer-meer-stroom.html
More than 10% increase renewable energy production, resulting in 14% renewable electricity, composed of 60% wind and 30% biomass and 10% solar.
Total installed wind power: 4 GW (nameplate). Several large offshore wind parks are in the pipeline. Before 2023 an extra 4.5 GW offshore wind is planned to be installed and much more after that:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/07/07/contracts-signed-for-752-mw-offshore-wind-of-dutch-coast/
Holland currently has about 30 GW total electricity generating capacity (mostly fossil) and an average year-to-year consumption of 13 GW.
Sissyfuss on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 9:03 am
Markets tanking for 4th day in a row. Even the algobots are starting to panic.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 9:22 am
Annyomouse
As M. King Hubbert (1956) shows, peak oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.
https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Aramco CEO sees oil shortage coming as investments, oil discoveries drop
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aramco-oil/aramco-ceo-sees-oil-supply-shortage-as-investments-discoveries-drop-idUSKBN19V0KR
Peak Oil Vindicated by the IEA and Saudi Arabia
Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
MASTERMIND on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 9:23 am
Annyomouse
The US Shale Business is “not profitable” and can’t fund itself whether oil is at 100 or 50 dollars a barrel
https://imgur.com/a/t7ulB
The world’s largest oil trader Vitol says US oil production will peak in 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-commodities-summit-vitol/u-s-oil-output-may-be-set-for-last-spike-in-2018-vitol-idUSKBN1CF1MZ?rpc=401&
2020s To Be A Decade of Disorder For Oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/2020s-To-Be-A-Decade-of-Disorder-For-Oil.html