- 1998: IEA forecast peak oil in 2020
- how far was the IEA off? IEA projected demand at 111 bopd by 202; in fact, current demand is struggling to hit 99 bopd
- today: IEA says CAPEX slumped in past two years due to price downturn; price downturn “pulled the rug out from under upstream spending and investment decisions”: IEA sees a potential oil supply “gap” of 16 million bopd by 2025
- the gap of 16 million bopd by 2025 threatens new spike in oil prices
- global tight oil: 4.6 million bopd in 2015; will peak at 7.5 million bopd in 2035
- IEA predicts decline by 23.7 million bopd over the next decade alone, the IEA forecasts, the equivalent of losing the entire output of Iraq every two years
So, we’ll see.
- the Bakken: 2 million bopd
- the Eagle Ford: 2 million bopd (EIA: suggests about 1 million bopd)
- the Permian: 4 million bopd (EIA: suggests about 2 million bopd)
- subtotal: 8 million bopd in three plays
I can’t even begin to count all the other tight plays in the US, but one could start with SCOOP and STACK. The IEA folks need to get out and about.