Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on August 10, 2017

Bookmark and Share

OPEC July Production Data

Production

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

All data is through July 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day.

The above chart does not include the 14th member of OPEC that was just added, Equatorial Guinea. I do not have historical data for Equatorial Guinea so I may not add them at all. It doesn’t really matter since they are only a very minor producer. Also they are in steep decline, dropping at about 10% per year.

The huge June OPEC production increased was due to a revision, explained below.

May OPEC production was revised upward by 18,000 bpd and June OPEC production was revised upward by 109,000 bpd. Counting the June revision July production was up about 280,000 barrels per day over what was reported last month.

Not much is happening in Algeria. They peaked almost 10 years ago and have been in slow decline ever since.

Angola peaked in 2010 but have been holding pretty steady since.

Ecuador peaked in 2015.

Any change in Gabon crude oil production is too small to make much difference.

Iran’s June production was revised upward by 27,000 barrels per day.

Iraq is holding steady since their December peak.

Kuwait is down 165,000 bpd from their November peak. That is about 5.75%.

Libya is now producing just over 1,000,000 barrels per day. If this trend continues, and it just might, then they should be at their maximum possible production of about 1,400,000 barrels per day by the end of the year.

Peace seems to be breaking out in Nigeria as well as Libya. This is the worst possible scenario for oil prices.

Qatar has been in decline since 2008. Her decline will continue albeit at a very slow pace.

Saudi June production was revised upward by 85,000 barrels per day. That means they have increased production by 169,000 barrels per day over the last two months.

The UAE is down almost 185,000 bpd since December. This is the largest percentage cut in OPEC. I don’t think it is all voluntary.

The production trend in Venezuela is obvious. It could get a lot worse as Venezuela is now on the cusp of becoming a failed state. If that happens it’s anyone’s guess as to what will happen to their oil production.

This chart has an error in the Y axis. It has Jun 17 twice. The last one should be Jul 17. At any rate World total liquids continues to rise. Yet oil prices continue to rise also. WTI is near $50 and Brent is just over $53. I have no idea what is happening here but something is just not right.

 

 

Peak Oil Barrel by Ron Patterson



7 Comments on "OPEC July Production Data"

  1. Anonymous on Thu, 10th Aug 2017 10:54 am 

    Nice looking presentation but contains peaker slant in comments. Several producers “peaked” when they had to cut for OPEC agreement.

  2. Antius on Thu, 10th Aug 2017 11:07 am 

    Doesn’t look good. Basically, production increases in Saudi and Iraq offsetting a general decline in just about every other OPEC country.

  3. bobinget on Thu, 10th Aug 2017 12:58 pm 

    Preliminary estimate for crude draw is once again 7 MM barrels for next week

    What’s more significant? WTI will BEGIN to wake up to missing Venezuelan petroleum.

    Waging three wars KSA is in no position to increase exports.

    Looks like: by September, it’ll be quantity imports from Canada, Saudi Arabia little else.

    If consumption hovers around 20 M B p/d we will be short around 400,000+ B p/d. No more exports.
    Commercial inventories are sitting at 2015 levels.

  4. bobinget on Thu, 10th Aug 2017 1:00 pm 

    Be prepared for OPEC to lose members and gain a
    a new cartel.

  5. bobinget on Thu, 10th Aug 2017 2:11 pm 

    Of course Iran and Iraq are able increase production. Iran was under sanctions for years.
    Iran by no means over-stressed it’s wells.

    Heres a news-flash. Divided, occupied, (US then IS) Iraq was in no shape to increase production. In fact, as with Iran little was done to improve production. Pipelines were blown up almost daily.
    Few foreign oil workers, companies were willing to risk combat zones. ( for any pay)

    Now finally, most of the sanctions on Iran are lifted,
    Iraq is no longer in a formal war situation.

    Saudi Arabia has indeed over pumped in a vane
    attempt to pressure Iran, Russia, Venezuela, US shale over ‘market share’. How much damage ?
    I don’t know.

    We do know Venezuela’s production looks like
    pee down the porcelain parkway. There’s no place
    lower for Venezuelan oil to go.

    America’s third biggest supplier is running out of bottom but remains the world’s greatest potential
    supplier. Not just to China or the US but because being independent of Muslim infighting, nations desperate for crude oil like Indonesia, N.Korea,
    Japan, others, are willing clients.

    Venezuela’s problems, next to Iran or Iraq, as
    gloomy as it seems today are not comparable.

    Thank you editor for these reveling graphs.

  6. Cloggie on Fri, 11th Aug 2017 3:50 am 

    OPEC13

    2005: 30M
    2017: 33M

    Peak oil, whence art thou?

  7. Danlxyz on Fri, 11th Aug 2017 4:23 pm 

    Baker Hughes US rig count is down 5 rigs this week. IIRCC it was down even or down the last couple of weeks. At best it was even in the busy part of the year. It looks like low prices might be making investors a little cautious.
    But those guys are risk takers. They’ll always be looking for a deal. A birds got to fly and a fish has to swim.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *