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Page added on November 24, 2012

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Oil Supply Is Rising, but Demand Keeps Pace and Then Some

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IT used to be taken for granted that as economies grew, they would use more oil. That was a major reason cited in warnings that the world would run out of oil, particularly if standards of living rose in developing countries.

Well, standards of living are improving in developing countries, but the dire forecasts now appear to be wrong. In part that is because new discoveries and improving technologies have increased the amount of oil that can be produced. It also reflects conservation, in part, as cars become more efficient and as other steps are taken to reduce oil use.

The International Energy Agency, in its 2012 World Energy Outlook, released last week, forecast that American oil production, which began to rise in 2009 after decades of decline, would continue rising through at least 2020, when it could be about as high as it was in 1970, the year of peak production.

At the same time it forecast that by 2035, American oil consumption, which peaked in 2005, could decline to levels not seen since the 1960s, depending on how much conservation is encouraged.

The I.E.A. report also forecast that by around 2020, the United States could surpass Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer, and that while the country was not likely to become a net exporter of oil, the North American continent as a whole could be by around 2030.

But despite declining demand in some countries that historically were heavy users of oil, the world demand for oil seems likely to continue to rise. The I.E.A. forecast that global energy demand — including demand for energy produced by other sources — is likely to rise by 35 percent by 2035, with a large part of the increase coming from China and India.

In 1969, the United States consumed a third of the oil used in the world, while China used less than 1 percent. Last year the United States’ share was less than 22 percent, while the Chinese accounted for 11 percent. The I.E.A. forecasts that by 2030, the American share could be less than the Chinese one.

By 2035, American consumption of oil is expected to be as much as one-third less than it was last year. In China, oil consumption is expected to be up as much as two-thirds from the 2011 level, and India’s is predicted to more than double.

The accompanying charts show trends in oil consumption in the United States, Japan, China and India, as well as in the other major economies — defined as the 32 countries other than Japan and the United States that are in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. In each chart, the oil consumption in 2011 is shown as 100 percent, and the amount of oil used in that year is shown.

For each area, two forecasts are shown. One is based on the assumption that current policies will continue. The other, labeled “new policies” by the I.E.A., assumes that countries will gradually keep promises they have made to encourage conservation — promises that in the United States include increasing fuel economy in cars and trucks and at least a small increase in the use of natural gas to fuel trucks. The I.E.A. says that if those promises are kept, oil prices in real terms are likely to be only a little higher than they are now; if current policies continue, the price is likely to rise more rapidly.

NY Times



14 Comments on "Oil Supply Is Rising, but Demand Keeps Pace and Then Some"

  1. BillT on Sat, 24th Nov 2012 2:44 am 

    With the rise of the developing countries come the decline of the developed (Western) countries. There is NO extra or growth in real oil supplies, just hype and counting stuff that was once ignored. (Bio-fuels, used cooking oil, moonshine, etc.)

    NET energy has been declining for a long time. At least 10 years. THAT is the important number, but then, the NYT is part of the propaganda machine that tells Americans to go out and shop, everything is golden. lol. Fools!

  2. MrEnergyCzar on Sat, 24th Nov 2012 3:38 am 

    No cheap oil = no growth…

    MrEnergyCzar

  3. Arthur on Sat, 24th Nov 2012 9:41 am 

    Talking about oil supply, JR is dead.

  4. SOS on Sat, 24th Nov 2012 11:34 am 

    Supply and demand have always risen together and always will. What would that crack pot that first imagined peak oil say about demand today? What would he say about supply? What would he say about the emmense and growing reserves? What would he think of all the technological changes that have and are changing the way we use energy?

    Looking at a snapshot will not reveal much for you over time.

  5. Beery on Sat, 24th Nov 2012 2:52 pm 

    “Supply and demand have always risen together and always will.”

    LOL. SOS, King of Cornucopia, always good for a laugh.

  6. Gale Whitaker on Sat, 24th Nov 2012 3:03 pm 

    It’s a forgone conclusion that the IEA is an arm of EXXON. It’s obvious that all their assertions are lies because none of their past predictions have come true.

    Jevon’s paradox guarantees that more efficient cars will cause oil consumption to go up, not down.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

  7. BillT on Sat, 24th Nov 2012 3:11 pm 

    Desperation is increasing in the petro industry to find suckers to ‘invest’ in a depleting resource. More and more of these ‘bought and paid for’ articles will come out of big oil as the pressures increase to find more, with no real success.

    The tobacco industry bought dozens of doctors that claimed, on TV and in articles, that smoking was not harmful to your health and did not lead to cancer, even when the rest of the world knew different.

    It’s called desperation, isn’t it SOS? NET energy is shrinking, all over the globe and has been for over a decade. If there is so much oil, why is it still selling for over $100 per barrel? When there was plenty, it went for $10.

  8. Gleb on Sat, 24th Nov 2012 7:01 pm 

    “What would that crack pot that first imagined peak oil say about demand today?” I imagine he would shudder in disbelief at how bad it really is.

  9. Others on Sat, 24th Nov 2012 8:36 pm 

    Every day nearly 80,000 new vehicles were sold the World over. At the same time, the number of vehicles running on Natgas, LPG, Ethanol are also increasing.

    So that reduces to some extent. Still the supply can never match demand and so the $100/barrel price will remain.

  10. SOS on Sat, 24th Nov 2012 11:05 pm 

    This is news? Demand exceeds supply, supply exceeds demand, dog bites man, man bites dog.

  11. Bor on Sat, 24th Nov 2012 11:07 pm 

    “Supply and demand have always risen together and always will.”

    ???? How about this kind lunacy?

  12. actioncjackson on Sun, 25th Nov 2012 5:43 pm 

    The shitty feeling is knowing that the lifestyle in America is desirous by everyone living in developing countries, so it seems this is as good as it gets, slavery with climate controlled cells. Knowing there’s a world full of ignorant people who would do anything to get in this position is depressing, there’s little chance we’ll get to a next level of prosperity.

  13. SOS on Sun, 25th Nov 2012 9:18 pm 

    Hey Beeery, what would the crack-pot that wrote about peak oil say about supply today? What about demand? Both have kept pace with each other and both have far exceeded any peak oil number he dreamed as the maximum. Its probably not funny to you but it is to me!

    What is the point of arguing we are running out when we clearly are not?

  14. Kenz300 on Mon, 26th Nov 2012 4:57 pm 

    Diversify……. putting all your eggs in the oil basket for transportation fuels is a disaster waiting to happen. The oil monopoly on transportation fuels does not want to see any competition. They love it when oil prices spike. They make huge windfall profits.

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