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Page added on April 11, 2018

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Lack Of Investments To Hurt Global Oil Supply

Production

Fatih Birol, head of International Energy Agency, said a dearth of investments can start hurting global oil supplies from the first part of the next decade as production at ageing fields falls amid robust energy consumption worldwide.

“This growth in oil output is not enough to feel there will be enough production in the future because of two reasons,” Birol, IEA’s executive director, said at a press conference on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum conference in New Delhi today. “One, global oil demand is still growing very strongly. Second, some of the mature fields are in a decline.”

He expects global crude oil demand to grow by 1.5 million barrels each day but added that the peak demand for oil is unlikely to be seen soon.

“Every year, we are losing 3 million barrels per day and investments are not coming through,” Birol said. “In 2018, our investment expectation is only 40 percent of what we have seen in 2014, before the collapse of investment.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. is ramping up production of shale oil, and about two-thirds of global oil demand is expected to come from the U.S. in the next five years, Birol said.

“This is a game-changer and, of course, established oil producers would like to see a different picture,” he said. “But the U.S. is coming very strongly. So is Canada, so is Brazil, among other countries.”

Birol said India remains vulnerable to sharp rallies in oil prices. “It is very important for the Indian economy that we don’t see price spikes,” Birol said. “India will continue to need oil and gas for many years and need to see affordability.”

Higher gas prices, he said, may lead consumers globally to scout for alternatives such as coal.



21 Comments on "Lack Of Investments To Hurt Global Oil Supply"

  1. MASTERMIND on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 7:45 pm 

    Lack of investment my arse! Even when the oil price was way over 100 dollars they couldn’t even find enough oil to cover consumption. This is why oil must peak and will peak soon!
    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

    The light at the end of our tunnel is actually an oncoming train!

  2. Boat on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 7:52 pm 

    Mm

    Your full-o-shyt.It was fracking and Canadian tar sands that sent the world into a glut that lasted 3 years. It took collusion between Opec/Russia and a 2.2 mbpd cut to jack up prices to where they are today.

  3. MASTERMIND on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 7:53 pm 

    When the world oil shortage hit! This world will burn! Because world leaders will realize they have nothing to lose!

  4. MASTERMIND on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 7:58 pm 

    Boat

    We have consumed more oil than we have discovered for 34 years in a row..This is simple math..End of story you dumb idiot!
    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  5. MASTERMIND on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 8:02 pm 

    Boat

    You are arguing with yourself. Just like Clogg. I bet when the oil starts to run out they will trow your hick ass into a train car and force you to do hard labor!

  6. Boat on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 9:29 pm 

    Mm

    Yet another full-o-shyt. Bahrain just discovered 80 billion. The world burns 3 billion per year.

  7. Boat on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 9:31 pm 

    Mm

    No one in Texas worries about running out of oil.

  8. MASTERMIND on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 9:34 pm 

    Boat

    The world burns around 91 million barrels a day. And around 33 billion barrels a year.
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/271823/daily-global-crude-oil-demand-since-2006/

  9. MASTERMIND on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 9:37 pm 

    prediction

    Financial catastrophe resulting from resource depletion and a debasement of value of fiat currencies. Then a 3-month window of tyranny and government lockdown on citizens followed by a 3-month window of absolute carnage and death. Then, a period of about 6 months of slow die-off and that’s pretty much that. Oh, and starting sometime within the next 5 years or so. My prediction.

  10. Boat on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 9:41 pm 

    Not in my world. I drive a Subaru. well sometimes.

    BTW… closer to 97 mbpd.

  11. Boat on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 9:48 pm 

    Mm

    As fracking costs drop and as proven tech had demonstrated production sky rocketing. The world is frackings oyster. Think of adding another couple of trillion to proven reserves at $80 oil.

  12. MASTERMIND on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 11:28 pm 

    Boat

    As fracking cost drop?

    US Real Cost per Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Dry Well Drilled -EIA
    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertw0_xwwr_nus_mdwa.htm

    Based on the HSBC study shale would have to increase by a factor of 12 at five times the speed of production for fracking to make up for conventional declining.
    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  13. Cloggie on Thu, 12th Apr 2018 5:52 am 

    Higher energy prices would be good news for Europe since that entity needs the least energy by far to earn million euro:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2014/10/04/energy-efficiency-country-ranking/

    On top of that Europe has a potent offshore wind industry, that soon will be the cheapest form of energy, at least between 0-40% electricity share, when you don’t have to worry about storage.

    Line up behind the queue, first come, first served. Don’t push!

  14. rockman on Thu, 12th Apr 2018 9:50 am 

    There will be no “lack” of investments. Human greed will assure that. For more then 4 decades I’ve seen good and crappy prospects funded during both high and low oil/NG price periods. But typically more crap drilled during high price periods. But remember even money losing completed wells still add to oil/NG supplies.

  15. BobInget on Thu, 12th Apr 2018 10:26 am 

    Still. Rockman,
    Unless WTI gets back to at least $80 and stays there, few will invest .Of course with a 1.2 Trillion $ deficit facing us, inflation, higher interest rates,
    will push oil past $100 again with fatal results.

    Today, we see oil prices led by Tweet. Mike Pence
    isn’t the only one hanging on every new proclamation from Our Dear Leader.

  16. twocats on Thu, 12th Apr 2018 7:23 pm 

    “Every year, we are losing 3 million barrels per day and investments are not coming through,” Birol said. “In 2018, our investment expectation is only 40 percent of what we have seen in 2014, before the collapse of investment.”

    so much to love about that statement – and the pathetic responses from rockboat. prices continue to rise so its put-up-or-shut-up time from US LTO. There is some talk about pipeline capacity constraints to Permian growth. Not sure – but if that’s what causes an oil shortage I AM SURE we will hear a lot of people say – “Not peak oil – just lack of investment” – which is a meaningless statement but it wouldn’t be any different than all the other meaningless statements they are constantly spewing forth.

  17. BobInget on Thu, 12th Apr 2018 7:48 pm 

    Saudi export cut this year vs. last year
    It is averaging 540K/day less for 14 weeks compared to last year. That alone accounts for 53 MM draw compared to last year and explains to a large degree Saudi commitment to starve US of crude and lack of crude build in US

  18. MASTERMIND on Thu, 12th Apr 2018 8:53 pm 

    twocats

    That is exactly what they will say. Its not peak oil just lack of investing to go find new oil. There is still oceans of oil left to be found…But it wont matter what they say really. Without enough oil we will not be able to grow the global economy and it will collapse. The oil price and investment has little to nothing to do with it.

  19. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 13th Apr 2018 9:22 am 

    We shall see—
    By late this year, or early next, prices and supply are going to get interesting.

    Get ready campers!

  20. rockman on Fri, 13th Apr 2018 11:29 am 

    Boat – “Unless WTI gets back to at least $80 and stays there, few will invest.” About half as many rigs are drilling oil wells today as during the peak. And prices are well below $80/bbl. Not the boom time but I wouldn’t say “few” are investing.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/280141/oil-and-gas-wells-drilled-annually-in-the-united-states/

  21. twocats on Fri, 13th Apr 2018 6:13 pm 

    “Without enough oil we will not be able to grow the global economy and it will collapse.”

    I used to believe that passionately, and now it seems clear that is not true. I’m not at all convinced the world economy has “grown” in the past 10 years beyond hallucination and inflation.

    But I guess houses keep getting rehabbed, buildings keep getting built, and products are manufactured or grown and shipped around the world. But all that can keep happening even as total oil supplies begin to shrink. So at what point do we decide “growth” is no longer taking place? In the end, growth is an artificial construct with no clear scientific definition. And as long as economic definitions can change, what was recession last year can be growth next year.

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