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It will take much cheaper oil for Saudi Arabia to take action

It will take much cheaper oil for Saudi Arabia to take action thumbnail

THERE comes a time when any self-respecting cartel boss has to focus on protecting his turf. Saudi Arabia has spent the past nine months fighting to safeguard its share of the global oil market, increasing its own crude production to record highs. That exasperates its weaker OPEC partners. It also seems utterly self-defeating, especially after world oil prices plunged below $45 a barrel on August 24th, a six-and-a half year low. Some say its folly is attempting to fight an unwinnable war against American “frackers”. But its eye may be more on local Shia-led rivals, Iraq and Iran.

On August 23rd OPEC-member Iran echoed the frustrations previously aired by Algeria and said it would welcome—or “not disagree with”—an emergency meeting of the producers’ cartel to shore up prices. Yet two days later Bijan Zanganeh, its oil minister, outlined plans, once nuclear-related sanctions are lifted, to eventually add 1m barrels a day (b/d) to production, reclaiming lost market share. (He also said investment had shrunk to almost nothing, so it was not clear how Iran would achieve this.) Iraq, too, is pumping hard to make up for production lost during years of sectarian conflict. The Paris-based International Energy Agency says Iraqi crude output has jumped by 740,000 b/d in the course of this year, a much larger proportional increase than Saudi Arabia’s

The kingdom can respond in several ways. It can turn a deaf ear to calls for a co-ordinated cutback, as it has since imposing an OPEC agreement in November to let market forces set prices. It could blame a weakening Chinese economy for the failure of that policy, and suggest it is ready for a rethink. Or it could strike a bold agreement with Iraq and Iran for output quotas.

The latter, analysts say, is the most difficult because Iraq and Iran believe the Saudis have stolen market share from them during their recent troubles, and are relatively low-cost producers so able to withstand a price war. Tensions over regional supremacy between the Sunni Saudis and Shia Iran also cloud the picture, though analysts say when it comes to OPEC policy, money matters more than geopolitics.

Waiting and watching
China’s recent woes have given the Saudis a fig leaf to hide behind if they want to change course. Paul Stevens of Chatham House, a London-based think-tank, says they could pretend the low oil price is in response to slumping global demand, not over-supply. However, the kingdom is likely to be adamant that it will not bear the burden alone; between 1980 and 1985-6, its production slumped from 10m b/d to below 2.5m b/d, yet prices continued to tumble. That lesson has never been forgotten.

Bassam Fattouh of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies notes that co-ordinating an output cut even within OPEC is not easy: when prices are falling, the most cash-strapped countries have a big incentive to cheat, until prices become so low that the extra pain of halting production is worth the gain. Though Saudi Arabia’s public spending has tripled in the past decade, needing $100 oil to balance the budget, it has foreign assets to sell and a debt ratio of just 1.6% of GDP. That gives it the leeway to avoid making a rushed decision.

It is likely to be pragmatic. The drop this year has rendered high-cost production, such as Brazilian deep-water fields and Canadian tar sands, less profitable, much as it had hoped; overall non-OPEC output growth is slowing. It may believe that the next leg down in the oil price will hurt America’s shale industry, though it clearly underestimated the cost-cutting potential in hydraulic fracturing (fracking). Mr Stevens says that for the first time since the late 1920s the oil market is being left to find its own floor—though no one knows where it is. As Al Capone, a cartel boss of that era, would have put it: “My rackets are run on strictly American lines and they’re going to stay that way.”

The Economist



60 Comments on "It will take much cheaper oil for Saudi Arabia to take action"

  1. rockman on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 10:50 am 

    And again this absurd notion that the KSA has been fighting to preserve its “market share”. I’ll keep asking the same question: can anyone show a single report indicating that the KSA hasn’t had a market to sell every bbl it wanted to produce? Even this article offers supporting evidence: if the KSA didn’t have enough market to sell into before who the f*ck is buying the increased production they’re selling now?

    For that matter name one producer (US and Canada included) that had to shut in a single well because they lacked a buyer.

  2. rockman on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 10:54 am 

    And again this “cost cutting potential”‘of frac’ng BS. And never a single detail of exactly what’s being done. And for good reason: it will be very easy for those in the biz to shoot them down.

  3. JuanP on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 12:35 pm 

    This is a really bad propaganda piece. If we are to believe whatever retard wrote this, the whole world is suffering from the lower oil prices except US frackers. YEAH, RIGHT!

    It was because of lousy articles like this one, and all the anti Russian and anti Chinese propaganda bullshit that I stopped reading The Economist years ago. They are the prototypical Western MSM propaganda mouthpiece and, as far as I am concerned, have completely lost all their credibility.

  4. Boat on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 3:11 pm 

    Rock,
    I don’t get your logic.You can sell anything if you lower your price low enough. If the selling price isn’t high enough to support your cash flow or make a profit you quit drilling as so many have done.

    The Saudi’s have huge cash reserves, they continue to lower prices to keep increased market share. Simple supply and demand.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/business/energy-environment/drillers-answer-low-oil-prices-with-cost-saving-innovations.html

    I have found many articles by simply googling fracking and cost cutting measures. Read a few.

  5. James Tipper on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 6:47 pm 

    “Saudi Arabia is doing great! It won’t be in any trouble anytime soon!”

    http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/06/news/economy/saudi-arabia-oil-deficit/

    That’s just quackery! Everyone knows Saudi Arabia 245 Trillgillion barrels of oil!

    From the article, “Saudi Arabia has already burned through almost $62 billion of its foreign currency reserves this year, and borrowed $4 billion from local banks in July — its first bond issue since 2007.”

    Yup, eating into reserves and getting into more debt, it’s the American way! Or should I say the Arabian way!

  6. Makati1 on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 6:58 pm 

    You have to consider the source: The Economist. Owners: Cadbury, Rothschild, Schroder and Agnelli families. These are your real masters. And if their genealogy were to be traced, are likely all one old, very, very wealthy family, the Rothschilds.*

    The US has no economy. It is nothing but a huge, overdrawn, credit card about to be cancelled.

    * “The Rothschilds are elusive. There is no book about them that is both revealing and accurate … A woman who planned to write a book entitled Lies about the Rothschilds abandoned it, saying: ‘It was relatively easy to spot the lies, but it proved impossible to find out the truth.’” … Rothschild’s strategy for future success was to keep control of their banks in family hands, allowing them to maintain full secrecy about the size of their fortunes … Since 2003, a group of Rothschild banks have been controlled by Rothschild Continuation Holdings, a Swiss-registered holding company … Jewish financiers obtained an increasing share of international finance during the middle and last quarter of the 19th century. The head of the whole group was the Rothschild family…”.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family

  7. shortonoil on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 7:29 pm 

    For a bunch of economists they sure are stupid! Why is anyone in business? Could it be to make money? To an economist that must sure sound like a crazy idea. The Saudis are doing, just like Apple, and 2 million other companies are doing; they are trying to maximize revenue. The Saudis didn’t make the price of oil fall, and they are certainly are not trying to keep it down. That goes against the idea of why they are pumping oil in the first place; which by the way is to make money! If these guys want to argue that Saudi Arabia is going to make more money by charging less for oil then they need to turn those illustrious sheep skins in, and apply for a refund from those esteemed institutes of higher learning.

    Maybe giving these people a degree in the first place was just a very bad joke that went very badly wrong. Sort of like a replay of the “Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy”.

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

  8. rockman on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 7:46 pm 

    Boat – What I need to read is one documented report that the KSA has not had a sufficient market to sell every bbl they wanted to whether oil was selling for $140 or $40 per bbl. Right now you and others keep sqawking “market share” like mindless parots. Time to put up or shut up IMHO: who took market share from the KSA that prevented them from selling? Even better, oh enlightened one: show the link with KSA’s “market share” every 6 months for the last 4 years. Then you can point out when this great loss of market share began and when it was recovered by the KSA. Without the data your words are just more empty mental meanderings.

    Go ahead, punk, make my day. LOL

  9. Boat on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 8:41 pm 

    Rock,
    Of course they have had the market to sell their oil and they kept lowering prices to make sure they could get rid of the oil. the end result is gained market share and drillers that cannot sell it that cheap shut down their rigs. Your either mincing your words or outright confused. LOL I made the punk list.

  10. Boat on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 8:53 pm 

    Rock,
    here is how one of our discussions would go. Humor me.
    Hypothetically I would see a new transmission tower to run power. I would say that tower was built with new tech. Engineers run programs and do experiments on super computers that tests the strength and stability of the tower with the result of greater spacing between the towers, lighter weight and a stronger structure.
    You would say. That isn’t high tech, they been making towers and windmills like that for more than a century.
    Our market conversation seems like one of those.

  11. Davy on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 9:04 pm 

    Boat, can I give you some friendly advice;). There is a time to open your mouth and a time to bite your tongue. No the difference and you can avoid looking like a fool.

  12. Boat on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 9:38 pm 

    Davy,
    You have never been friendly nor have most on this site. Your free to have your say. I am ok, got thick skin. I leave the cussing and the fuming and the name calling to yall. Shor nuff the piece of pie was so fine I got a headache from my tongue slapping the roof of my mouth clamoring for more.

  13. MrNoItAll on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 9:55 pm 

    We are bombarded by false propositions emanating from the MSM and from the internet blogosphere — constantly, from all angles.

    One of the most frequently heard false “class” of propositions:

    The Saudis are engaged in an oil price war — The Saudis are driving the price of oil down — The Saudis’ goal is to put the (lame-ass, money-losing, net energy deficit-producing American Shale “miracle”) developers out of business.

    Many articles on ZeroHedge and posted elsewhere on the internet declare: “Since the Saudis decided to put the American shale producers out of business…” and “Because the Saudis are engaged in a price war…” etc…

    We are clearly SUPPOSED to believe that THAT explains why the price of oil has plummeted and why it remains “so low” by modern standards — low enough to reek havoc, that’s for sure.

    And as it turns out, most people DO believe what they are told, and they THINK they understand why the global oil industry is in such turmoil.

    The masses need to be lied to. They need to be controlled. They need to be sedated. They need to hear sweet lullabies and calming elevator music.

    Because, if they KNEW the truth, the violent panicked stampede would trample the world we know into dust, in an instant.

  14. Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 11:09 pm 

    Boat

    It’s “you’re free” as in “you are free”, not “your free”. Your means possessive as in “its your stupid fucking brain that doesn’t get simple English”. You’re means you are, as in “you’re a fucking small minded troll who doesn’t understand jack shit” about the world because you’re a fat lazy minded American”. Dumb ass.

  15. Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 11:17 pm 

    My advice is don’t trust the global energy market analysis of guy that doesn’t know the difference between your and you’re. He probably didn’t get much of an education or do much reading.

  16. apneaman on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 11:36 pm 

    boat was once brilliant, but 15 years of daily inhalations of Polyvinyl chloride fumes done dumbed downed da dude. Folks needed PVC pipe and boat delivered, damn the consequences – company man to the bitter end. Boat can handle the loss of cognitive abilities alright, it’s the permanent drooling and eye twitch that gets him down.

  17. GregT on Sat, 29th Aug 2015 11:41 pm 

    “I am ok, got thick skin.”

    You done got more thick then just skin Boat.

  18. MrNoItAll on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 12:37 am 

    Thick skull?

  19. Makati1 on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 1:28 am 

    MrNoItAll, You got it in one! If the truth got out, there probably would not be a banker, corporate exec, billionaire, or economist alive by sundown.

  20. dooma on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 6:38 am 

    I joined this forum because I thought it might be a good place to get information from. Instead I am confronted by a bunch of narcissistic, nit-picking foul-mouthed Yanks….

    You are the proverbial frog in the pot of water. And you placed yourself there by pissing off/on most all of the countries in the world-except for your Zionist masters.

  21. Davy on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 8:06 am 

    Geeze Doom, “narcissistic nit picking foul-mouthed Yanks” are the minority I assure you. Maybe you should stay around for more than two hits on the site. This is the first time I seen your comment and I am here all the time. Doom, your comment makes you sounds like an uptight, closed minded, and hormonal juvenile. Open you eyes to what we are talking about that is if you have the balls.

  22. joe on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 8:48 am 

    Before supermarket chains began to dominate, the big fruit suppliers were once masters of all they surveyed. Now who would believe you when you tried to suggest the influence such companies had.
    Before opec most oil nations were very weak, then opec came and Islamic politics are at the centre of global affairs. Until recently opec would have cut some output and spent money on improving it’s network. Knowing that it had lots of spare capacity and growing future demand from the Globalised economy. Opec is at war with itself and I believe it does not function as a cartel at all, it’s working more like a Saudi monopoly.
    TPP may be seen as another extension of this globalist IMF policy of developing emerging markets and lending to them. However. It could also be the case that demand is not present as China is no longer an emerging market but is entering a phase of low growth as it reaches a high point in its ‘workshop of the world’ position. Peak oil is less relevant if seen from that point of view. It becomes much more relevant later when easy opec oil is gone and the development of tight oil is really too expensive, if this scenario is the case then a price cut is very bad for the world in the long term if it were to stay down. It would prevent investment in alternative energy rather than unconventional oil which will probobly get produced anyway. It could be the ‘market share’ Saudi seeks is in the renewable energy market, rather than the tight oil market.

  23. rockman on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 10:06 am 

    Boat – I’m glad to see you take “punk” at its humorous intent. Maybe it’s a bit of semantics. But you make my point about the KSA cutting oil prices and not production…so they wouldn’t lose market share. Or more simply put: they could max their revenue whether prices were high or low. IOW their actions weren’t based on any desire to hurt US shale players but to max revenue in a market that eventually weakened for a variety of reasons with a long period of high oil prices being an important dynamic.

  24. Kenz300 on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 10:14 am 

    Maybe it is time to diversify away from OIL and the the OIL monopoly on transportation fuels.

    Electric vehicles are the future…….

  25. marmico on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 10:17 am 

    You pump oil rockman. The Saudis pump oil rockman.

    Saudi ain’t subsidizing your “hooker and coke” expenses anymore. Get the marginal costs down to $60 WTI.

  26. shortonoil on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 12:29 pm 

    The notion that the Saudis hammered the price of oil to drive out US shale must be the most lame brained concept since Dr. Dolittles magic elixir formula came along. The Saudis produce 11% of the world’s oil, if they doubled their production (which they can’t) it would hardly drive down the price of oil 60%. The Saudis produce some of the highest quality oil in the world, US shale is very poor quality. 37% of it has an API greater than 50, which means it is not good for much except as a diluent, and feedstock. On a quality bases alone, US Shale is no competition to the Saudis.

    The price of oil is going down because the world is approaching the end of the oil age. Oil production will cease when producers can no longer make money producing oil. New fields have to be brought on line to maintain production. At $45/ barrel no one can afford to bring new fields on line. The world is burning 34Gb per year, and developing almost no sources. Do the math!

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

  27. Boat on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 2:27 pm 

    No short, the price of oil dropped because new fields did come online or grew and oversupplied the market. Your the chart man, Did you chart the rise in production in several countries? Did you notice how after 6 years of high prices demand did not drop and growth did not drop but production over produced the market?
    You go on and on about the quality of oil is dropping. With tar sands slowing and fracking slowing and the middle east picking up why don’t you write about how the quality of oil should now go up. wouldn’t that make sense? Or does it not fit your narrative.

  28. shortonoil on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 6:24 pm 

    Between 1960 and 2009 world production grew by 2.51% per year, and no glut appeared. Between 2010 and 2014 it grew by 1.31% per year, and the market is swamped. Now where exactly is all that new growth in oil production, and why isn’t the economy using it? Historically the market is not over supplied, historically it is under supplied. Still, inventories refuse to go down. Oil is now down 55% in price from its all time high, and inventories are still growing.

    We can show the energy equations that predicted it, but now that its here some common sense works almost as well!

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

    PS; To get that 1.31% growth took over a $1 trillion in new debt.

  29. apneaman on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 6:46 pm 

    boat, there you go again with your nonsensical ramblings. Are you hammered? This is what we hear when you comment –

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ss2hULhXf04

  30. Makati1 on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 6:58 pm 

    joe, I agree with you in all but the statement: “…It would prevent investment in alternative energy…”

    The is no real “alternate energy” that can even come close to replacing hydrocarbons. ALL of them, excepting plants converting sunlight to edibles and fuel, are supported by petroleum. ALL of them. And when petroleum goes away so will they. Name one

    alternate energy source that does not have a physical basis. (Metals, concrete, trucking, mining, manufactureing, etc.)

  31. onlooker on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 7:44 pm 

    And no alternative energy comes close to replicating the concentration/potency and diversity of even one type of fossil fuel- oil.

  32. Boat on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 9:15 pm 

    short,
    The Saudis produce 11% of the world’s oil, if they doubled their production (which they can’t) it would hardly drive down the price of oil 60%.

    Did you pull that out of your brain. If not, show me.

    The proof for the glut in a market still growing. Refinery utilization is at historical highs. This is even with capacity at all time highs. So this is why there is a percieved glut.IF you cant drop the price enough to find a buyer you store it. The price of storage goes up as capacity goes up. the third choice is to shut down a well and rigs which has happened a lot recently. This is simple stuff.
    So where is the extra oil coming from?. Iran, Iraq Saudi etc and until recently the US and Canada which is still holding reasonable strong.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/oil-storage-squeeze-may-lead-to-another-price-crash

    At he low Cushing had 18 million in storage, in March they were at 448 million out of an estimated 500 million.
    http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=22632#

    You may not understand this but this is what energy traders live on.

  33. GregT on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 9:29 pm 

    “You may not understand this but this is what energy traders live on.”

    And you wonder why you perceive people here as being unfriendly towards you Boat. How many times do people need to explain something to you until it finally sinks in?

    The world’s economies are slowing Boat. The glut of oil that you (and others) are so fixated on, is not affordable to our economies. If it were affordable the excess would be consumed and growth would continue as it has before. Oil prices are still over twice historical norms. Oil is not cheap right now, it is expensive. Too expensive to end the global economic crisis that we still cannot recover from.

  34. Davy on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 9:44 pm 

    Boat, you look foolish sticking to your guns that things are fine. We have had some strange global financial occurences and shifting fundamentals in commodities, currencies, and markets. Things have occurred that are unusual per historical records. Yet, no crash and that is all you need to allow you to dismiss the warning signs we speak of daily.

    Boat I would respect you allot more if you had some balance and acknowledged these risks and dangerous anomalies It is ok to discount them and look on them in an optimistic light. The outright dismissal of our comments makes you look extreme. Show some balance Boat and your message will have more weight. Extremist on this board lose credibility with the silent majority.

  35. Boat on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 10:02 pm 

    Population is growing faster than the world can pump oil at a price a growing number of people can’t afford. Is that worded in a way that makes you happy?

    At the same time the number of people that can afford that oil is growing also. Consumption is growing, food production is growing. For six years in houston we averaged $1-$1.70 higher gasoline and we survived just fine as a nation. Unemployment dropped even with an addition of millions of people since the crash. The market is way up, like 13,600 to 16,500 up to close 18,000 a few weeks ago. None of this suggests a collapse or downturn in any way.
    World wide inventories are high for oil in spite of thousands of drilling rigs taken offline. I am not the one looking foolish. This is where you switch topics to global warming instead of proving me wrong.

  36. Davy on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 10:13 pm 

    Not much one can say to an extremist in denial. Let’s see what happens when I agree with him:

    Boat, peachy dude 😉

  37. GregT on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 10:49 pm 

    “In its latest “well-being” poll, Gallup reports the percentage of Americans struggling to afford food is at a seven-year low, an outcome it attributes to “the economic recovery.” Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving food stamps is at an all-time high, as is the number of Americans no longer in the labor force.”

    “More than 46 million Americans have been on the program for 35 straight months. Official data from the Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed that the food stamp program known as SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) grew unprecedentally [sic] in terms of both enrollment and spending, from the time Obama took office. The official figure stands at 46 million Americans receiving $76.1 billion yearly. In 2010, the number was at 44 million. In 2009, nearly 39 million people were on the program. In 2000, the figure was 17 million.”

    “Gallup explains its poll results in terms of an “improving U.S. job market,” at a time when a record 93,194,000 Americans were not in the labor force in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). ”

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/07/gallup-ignores-all-time-high-food-stamp-usage-as-reason-for-7-year-low-percentage-americans-struggling-to-afford-food/

  38. apneaman on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 10:52 pm 

    7 years zero interest – there’s a sign of a healthy economy. Were all normal here.

  39. GregT on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:02 pm 

    “Like children clinging to their parents, stock market traders turned to their central banks last week as they sought protection from the frightening economic figures coming out of China. Surely, they asked, the central banks would ward off the approaching bogeymen, as they had so many times since the 2008 crash.

    The US Federal Reserve came up with the goods. William Dudley, president of the bank’s New York branch, hinted that the interest rate rise many had expected next month was likely to be delayed.

    A signal that borrowing costs would remain at rock bottom was all it took. After Black Monday and Wobbly Tuesday, the markets recovered to regain almost all their recent losses.

    It was just as if they had said to themselves: who cares if China’s economy is slowing; the “Greenspan put”, which so famously propped up US stock markets during the 1990s and early 2000s with one interest rate cut after another, is still in operation.”

    According to some City analysts, the stock markets are pumped with so much cheap credit that a crash is just around the corner. And they worry that when that crash comes, the central banks are all out of moves to prevent the aftershocks from causing a broader collapse.

    Since 2008 the Fed has pumped around $4.5 trillion into the financial system. The Bank of England stopped at £375bn. The Bank of Japan is still adding to its post-crash stimulus with around $700bn a year and the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank will have matched its cousin in Tokyo by the end of the year.

    In each case, the central bank has adopted quantitative easing, which involves buying government debt to drive up its price. A higher price lowers the returns and encourages investors to go elsewhere in search of gains. It has meant a big shift in the portfolios of fund managers in favour of shares.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/30/central-banks-cant-save-markets-crash-shouldnt-try

  40. GregT on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:13 pm 

    “Six years after the Global Financial Crisis, the U.S. stock market continues to soar to new heights with nary a pullback or correction. In this piece, I will explain why the stock market is experiencing a new bubble that is actually another wave of the bubble that has existed since the mid-1990s.

    A two-decade old bubble? Yes, you’ve read that correctly. Most people will consider this assertion preposterous, but the facts don’t lie. Though the U.S. stock market has been experiencing a bubble for two decades, it will not last forever. I believe that the ultimate popping of this bubble will have terrifying consequences for both investors and the global economy that is tied so closely to the stock market.”

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2015/04/05/disaster-is-inevitable-when-the-two-decade-old-stock-bubble-bursts/

  41. GregT on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:15 pm 

    “Two indices just hit record highs: The Nasdaq Composite reached 5,107 on May 27, and the S&P 500 climbed to 2,130.82 on May 21.

    But Nobel Laureate and Yale professor of economics Robert Shiller told Goldman Sachs on May 29 that while he isn’t certain people have the extravagant expectations you’d find in a “classic bubble,” “there is a stock bubble element in what we see.”

    http://moneymorning.com/2015/06/08/are-we-in-a-stock-market-bubble/

  42. GregT on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:17 pm 

    “Today risk is everywhere! Valuations will never be as high in such a period. So those who are saying this bull market still has some juice because valuations haven’t reached tech-bubble levels are kidding themselves! Those valuations were an anomaly!

    My research shows that valuations during calm geopolitical periods tend to be twice as high. But the valuations on this bad boy are already higher than every bubble or major bull market peak over the past century. The only real exception is the year 2000. And we’re not far off 1929. And that’s with the poor geopolitical period we’re in!”

    http://www.businessinsider.com/this-stock-market-bubble-worse-than-dotcom-boom-2015-8

  43. GregT on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:19 pm 

    “Few people believe the U.S. market is in a bubble. After all, we’ve made all-time highs, numerous analysts have appeared on TV stating the bull market is just getting started, and according to sentiment indicators, complacency is at historic levels. Unfortunately, many investors believe the Fed will save the market, and that every dip is a buying opportunity.

    When almost no one believes the market is dangerous, that’s when it is most dangerous.

    Many people incorrectly believe that market bubbles grow quickly and burst. A true bubble is a prolonged period of excess. The longer it rises and the more the pressure builds, the bigger the pop.”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-a-stock-market-sounds-when-the-bubble-bursts-2015-05-04

  44. apneaman on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:19 pm 

    GregT, see how breitbart gave the figure (lowest) at the start of the Bush admin and conveniently left out what it was in 2008 after his 8 years in office (which the crash occurred during)and went straight to the first year of Obama’s admin? That’s because for them all of America’s problems can be attributed to just the wrong party. Useful article to illustrate your point no doubt, but just as useful to illustrate a country horribly divided and unconcerned with anything other than flavors of ideology. Like all these right or left political rags, not a damn clue as to the real problems underlying their country and the world. Briebart and their readers are climate deniers and conspiracy freaks. When the founder, Andrew Breitbart died of heart disease the faithful were all over the intertubes claiming a CIA murder conspiracy even though he has had previous heart attacks. I laughed. The American left is just as delusional(but less foul) in most of their views. Neither group realizes the country is already lost and never coming back. The numbers of party faithful are shrinking daily as folks reject the system as rotten, but it’s not enough yet to end it.

  45. GregT on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:22 pm 

    “It is amazing to read assertions from the Fed and others that the stock market is nowhere near being in a bubble. Several aspects of the financial environment are actually so extreme as to be unprecedented. Some indicate a bubble, and others a bubble in trouble.”

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article51490.html

  46. Boat on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:24 pm 

    Greg-T,
    We can agree on occasion. We are in a bubble and it will pop again. The difference between my attitude and yours I look at the market in ten year time spans. Will it recover to new highs in ten years. I have always answered yes and came out ahead.
    You and the doomers think the collaspe soon. I think that is decades away, long after I am dead.

  47. Boat on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:29 pm 

    Apeman,
    Pay for that car up front or in 3 years and you will get the car cheaper and save more money than zero interest. Buy an efficient and get free money.

  48. GregT on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:33 pm 

    ” I am not the one looking foolish.”

    Really Boat?

  49. GregT on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:43 pm 

    “The difference between my attitude and yours I look at the market in ten year time spans.”

    You have no clue as to what ‘my attitude’ is in regards to the markets Boat. Let’s just say, I’m 53 and I don’t need to work anymore.

    You are welcome to label me is a doomer Boat. I could really care less. Again, you don’t know me at all. I live life to it’s fullest. I don’t watch television at all, I’m actively involved in outdoor activities, and at the local community level.

    Like so many others in denial, you believe that all will be well until after you are gone. I am a realist Boat, and I don’t see that at all. Every sign on the road is flashing bright neon red. We are in for a shit storm of biblical proportions.

  50. Boat on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 11:53 pm 

    I golfed for a couple of decades. Because of some injuries I watch it instead. It was a nice relief from long hrs in the factory. I also spent decades playing 9 ball. Once ran 7 racks in a row. nice clean games. BTW I had a brother who was very concerned about the environment. I was and still recycle about everything since the 80’s. That was when there were only a couple of bins 1/2 full after a week. I have a history of green lol.

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