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In Historic First, Glencore Shuts Coal Mines For 3 Weeks

In Historic First, Glencore Shuts Coal Mines For 3 Weeks thumbnail

In a historic move showing just how profound the collapse in global commodity demand and trade is, earlier today the Sydney Morning Herald reported that Australia’s biggest coal exporter Glencore, which last year concluded its merger with miner Xstrata creating the world’s fourth largest mining company and world’s biggest commodity trader, will suspend its Australian coal business for three weeks “in a move never before seen in the Australian market, to avoid pumping tonnes into a heavily oversupplied market at depressed prices.” Putting this shocking move in context, it is something that was avoided even during the depths of the global depression in the aftermath of Lehman’s collapse, and takes place at a time when the punditry will have you believe that the US will decouple from the rest of the world and grow at 3% in the current quarter and in 2015.

This is a considered management decision given the current oversupply situation and reduces the need to push incremental sales into an already weak pricing environment,” the company said.


Glencore chief Ivan Glasenberg

For those who don’t recall some of the more paradoxical moves in the Australian commodity space in recent months, Glencore is not only the dominant coal exporter in the global coal market, but one which has continued to raise its thermal coal output in Australia and push its coal business towards a new production record this year, even as prices for the commodity crashed to five-year lows. Thermal coal is selling for about $65 a, about half of the $120 price from three years ago.

Said oterhwise, Glencore took the first and only page out of Amazon’s playbook and has been pumping excess production in hopes of crushing marginal prices to the point where its competition goes out of business.

Unfortunately, things are not working out as expected and earlier today Glencore surprised the market by saying it would shut its Australian coal business for three weeks, starting mid-December, shaving about 5 million tonnes of output.

As SMH notes, “while it is understood Glencore’s overall Australian coal business is the black, the size and length of the shutdown is unprecedented and suggests a level of financial distress at some of its mines.


Glencore owns 13 coal mines in NSW and Queensland

So in a completely unshocking turn of events, rushing to create the biggest loss possible finally backfired on the company itself.

Staff will be forced to take three weeks paid annual leave as a result of the suspension. Glencore has 13 Australian mine complexes, including about 20 mines and employs about 8000 staff.

Still, in a world in which non-GAAP appearances are all that matter, Glencore was quick to put some lipstick on this historic pig:

On a tour of its Australian operations in September, Glencore told analysts that its coal output this calendar year would be 14 per cent greater than in 2012. Glencore also has a series of brownfield expansions in the pipeline. Glencore stressed its positive outlook for coal in the medium term, when it tips the “supply and demand balance will be restored”.

Odd how it is always about the “medium run” where companies are optimistic, never the short run, especially when they suddenly find themselves in what can only be classified as a global depression in commodity demand.

And now that Glencore is finally facing the music, the question is whether the other two majors who also took the beggar-thy-competitor route to prosperity, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, who Glencore chief Ivan Glasenberg “has attacked for dramatically expanding production in the face of falling iron ore prices” will follow suit or merely double down making Glencore’s pain that much more acute.

Mr Glasenberg’s criticism of Rio Tinto and BHP for their massive iron ore-expansion programs raised the eyebrows of some in the market, given Glencore had been running its very own coal expansion in the face of falling prices.

 

Mr Glasenberg has repeatedly attacked the price impact of the expansion strategies being used by the iron ore majors, as part of his attempt to pitch a $190 billion “merger of equals” with Rio.

The rest of the story is familiar: crush the competition by flooding the market with ever cheaper commodities:

Glencore is forecasting total managed coal production of 168 million tonnes in the 2014 calendar year, beating a previous record of 157 million tonnes set last year. However, that will be lower, given the December suspension of its Australian coal operations.

 

Glencore’s total managed production in Australia is forecast at 94 million tonnes this year, up on 81 million tonnes last year, as its new Clermont thermal coalmine, in central Queensland, comes online.

And therein lies the paradox: by adopting what is ultimately a self-destructive practice, the iron-ore majors, facing crumbling global demand, are merely accelerating the deflationary pressures facing not only iron but all other commodities, as they seek to flood the world with excess production and put producers who cost of production is below the margin price out of business.

Something which Saudi Arabia is also allegedly doing to its US shale-based competition.

The only thing that is certain is that absent some massive global reflationary spark, many companies are about to go out of business. And should it be someone as massive and prominent as Glencore, the global deflationary wave will only acclerate further, leading to an even faster slow down in global growth, until finally decades of excess capacity and production find their new equilibrium with an epic slam, one which may involve yet another round of global taxpayer-funded bailouts.

For now, however, keep a close eye on Glencore, which may just be the canary in the coalmine. No pun intended.

zerohedge



34 Comments on "In Historic First, Glencore Shuts Coal Mines For 3 Weeks"

  1. Northwest Resident on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 9:14 pm 

    Something tells me we’re going to be seeing a lot more “historic firsts” as we head down the road toward peak oil. We’re already seeing historical firsts in the stock market. Just a taste of things to come I’m afraid.

  2. Shaved Monkey on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 10:31 pm 

    They have paid no income tax for the past 3 years,the sooner corporations like them close for good the better.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/glencore-tax-bill-on-15b-income-zip-zilch-zero-20140626-3awg0.html

  3. Perk Earl on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 10:43 pm 

    It seems just a bit more than just coincidental that both coal and oil are over supplied causing price reductions.

    My wife and I are in the arts, and I don’t know if this is also coincidental but both stone work for monuments and bronze foundry’s we are in contact, and there are only so many, have wound down in recent months, with these companies calling everybody they know to try and drum up business. One of the businesses said they were busy all through the great recession.

    It’s starting to add up that in spite of good GDP numbers from the 2nd & 3rd qtr. in the US, the rest of the world economy is slowing. I have this feeling things are going to go south here in the US this winter. I mean how can the US continue to buck the trend in the rest of the world economy?

    But don’t look to the stock market as an indicator because that sucker is going to the Moon! But who at this point would be leveraging to buy more stock? Oh, right, corporations are buying back stock to make their quarterly reports look better so CEO’s can get their bonuses attached to stock performance. Sure, that makes a lot of sense!

  4. Makati1 on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 11:17 pm 

    FACT: You need consumers with money/incomes to sell products to. With the world, on average, in decline, there will be fewer and fewer consumers that meet that requirement.

    All those who bought big homes decades ago as a retirement investment, with plans to sell it for a net gain and move into a cheaper home, then live off the net… Ditto for stocks and bonds… Reality is a bitch!

  5. Northwest Resident on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 11:43 pm 

    “I mean how can the US continue to buck the trend in the rest of the world economy?”

    Push the enter key on the fiat generator? How about another $80 billion in debt? Mere chump change compared to global debt. That should cover it for another month. Done!

    By the way, I think those good GDP numbers from the 3rd qtr may have been fudged a bit, maybe by more than a bit.

    “WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy evidently did not grow quite as fast in the third quarter as initially reported.

    An army of Wall Street forecasting firms cut their estimates of third-quarter growth to 3% from 3.5% — a 14% reduction — after a disappointing trade report for September.”

    🙂
    Honest mistake, I’m sure.
    :-}

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-trade-data-gdp-growth-unlikely-to-be-35-in-third-quarter-2014-11-04

    But here’s the killer.

    “Almost two months ago, the Commerce Department cheered the announcement that the third quarter GDP had grown at an annualized rate of 3.5%. The Obama administration hailed it as a sign that their economic policies had spurred real growth. Even when Commerce sharply revised the number downward a month later to 2.8%, the White House continued to argue that the lower number still meant that the US had turned the corner, even after a number of critics asked how Commerce could have missed the number so widely.

    Today, Commerce backtracked even further. The annualized growth number for Q3 turns out to have been 2.2%, a revision of over a third from its original estimate two months ago:

    The U.S. economy grew at a much slower pace than initially thought in the third quarter, restrained by weak business investment and a slightly more aggressive liquidation of inventories, according to data on Tuesday.

    The Commerce Department’s final estimate showed gross domestic product grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate instead of the 2.8 percent pace it reported last month. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the report to show GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, unrevised at a 2.8 percent growth rate in the third quarter. …

    Growth was boosted by government stimulus programs, including the popular cash for clunkers and tax credit for first-time home buyers, and debate continues to rage over the sustainability of the recovery once government support wanes.

    No kidding. The Cash for Clunkers program and the first-time homebuyer tax credit was estimated to have contributed as much as half of the original Commerce estimate of 3.5%. Assuming that to still have contributed at least 1.5% of the final GDP, that leaves a rather pathetic 0.7% growth in Q3 without it. It’s barely a recovery at that level.”

    http://hotair.com/archives/2009/12/22/q3-gdp-revised-sharply-downward-again/

    I read an opinion in which the writer suggested that the goal is to just keep repeating “the economy is good, the economy is good”, over and over until it sinks in and people start to believe it. That seems to me like what they are doing. They HAVE to pump the positive spin, otherwise people might start waking up to reality. And we don’t want that.

  6. Perk Earl on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 12:59 am 

    “The Commerce Department’s final estimate showed gross domestic product grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate instead of the 2.8 percent pace it reported last month.

    Assuming that to still have contributed at least 1.5% of the final GDP, that leaves a rather pathetic 0.7% growth in Q3 without it. It’s barely a recovery at that level.”

    Thanks for the updated 3rd qtr. GDP numbers, NWR. Yeah, pull the stimulus out and what are we left with? .7%? Ouch!

    “They HAVE to pump the positive spin, otherwise people might start waking up to reality. And we don’t want that.”

    Stoneleigh, Nicole Foss, talked about that during a podcast in which she said, “Confidence in the future is what drives people to take out loans today for homes and businesses. Without it people don’t take out loans.” And we know how important loans are to a growing economy. So you know the govt. tries whatever they can to gain the people’s confidence in the system even if they know darn well that’s bad advice.

    It’s really criminal to be advertising overblown GDP numbers, then ratchet them down later when the news cycle barely pays attention to it. But also to give people a false sense of confidence in which they will become overburdened by loans with what is surely another step down in the near future.

    The situation is going sour and the real bugaboo will be what TPTB try to do once the next drop down occurs. The options are getting thinner. But who knows maybe they will go the route of Japan. Yikes!

  7. Northwest Resident on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 1:23 am 

    Going deeper into debt is the only option governments have. It’s already unsustainable. Confidence is eroding. They can only fake it for so long. How much longer can they hold this baby together, that’s the only question. My guess is, not much longer, and they know it.

  8. Davy on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 5:49 am 

    Per/NR, thanks for the data. We are seeing across the board slowing. We are seeing the beginning of bifurcation in multiple markets. This slow for now decline when multiplied by many sectors will culminate in a generalized unease among investors. As we know here Ponzi schemes are confidence driven. The central banks financial repression has a significant forward guidance or jawboneing element.

    The mechanical element with liquidity boosts has wound down in the US. In Japan they have gone all in QE which will just destabilize and shaky global system. China is in a pickle with what Japan and the US are doing. Europe is in recession. We have a FX market in turmoil with carry trades chasing risky high yields disturbed. Main Street never really recovered. Oil sector is unwinding and we will see if demand starts to destroy supply by shut-ins and insolvencies.

    This is a critical time for slowing because if you look at what the fundamentals should be we are close to what should be a normal downturn. We know that there are so many issues from sovereign’s debt issues, high leveraged high yield debt, TBTF bank exposure, and structural unemployment. I see a perfect storm brewing. Rates cannot go up without large scale pain because rates have been too low for too long with a risk on environment. IOW TPTB were promoting risky investments with the added moral hazard of a protection racket. Diminishing returns are hitting the protection racket.

    We know here this racket involved a slow and relentless wealth transfer and market distorting financial environment. Legalized corruption, open manipulation, and lobbying goal seek have further distorted normal price mechanism. Market can’t price now and are illiquid to a large move. There is far too much liquidity to physical. If we see a generalized bearish move in the FX markets, equity markets, and bond markets at the same time we will see a massive move of all those dollar coming home to physical with no physical to go to.

    We will have massive sells with few buys. Will the central banks end up buying back everything the markets can’t. At this point that action is suicide because the markets will be further impaired with false signals and pricing destruction. The new normal is controlled markets not normal market pricing. This was fine in the beginning of the great recession for a very short time. Currently the control has hit diminishing returns at the same time limits of growth are screaming.

    The energy sector is showing this situation. Lower energy use equals lower real economic activity. We can’t believe the global statistics. The equity markets say differently and governments are painting a different picture. Folks bifurcations are ready to start soon. If this is a lack luster holiday season what is left starting the cold New Year? Panic? Doom? It sounds like it is going to be a dark cold winter. Marm, please bitch slap me and bring me back to earth.

  9. Perk Earl on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 6:09 am 

    “My guess is, not much longer, and they know it.”

    Yeah, the timing part is an interesting question. I’ve understood the energy predicament since 05 and use to be on TOD. However, it’s only been recently that I thought the system might be in imminent danger of suddenly shifting into collapse mode.

    It’s a weird point in time because the façade is still holding, but the structure is weakening now on what seems like a daily basis. Every day is some kind of news that doesn’t sit well, like Banks manipulating the currency markets. I see that type of behavior as desperate attempts to get what can be gotten now, before shtf. I think people forget that banks are suppose to be the most trustworthy institution because they hold and invest people’s money.

    When I had my visa/mastercard merchant account with Wells, they ripped me off with random merchant fees. Every week or two another 45-60 bucks were charged which I never agreed to in addition to the regular fees. So I cancelled my account, which they charged $500 for, lost the money in the point of sale device I bought for another several hundred, but stopped the phony charges. A few weeks later I read there was a class action suit against them and other banks for charging phony merchant fees. Since I couldn’t trust the banks I started doing a business that doesn’t entail credit card charges.

    In the last two years I’ve been ripped off by my bank and had a hospital try to charge a phony 16k+ bill. I mean banks and hospitals ripping people off in America?! It’s a sign that things are not right.

  10. marmico on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 6:33 am 

    Per/NR, thanks for the data.

    What data?

    This is data; quarterly, SAAR. Let’s see if the stoned clueless one can figure out which mixed up brownie bars he is yakking about. 🙂

  11. Davy on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 7:19 am 

    Marm, THC is mind expanding. You and The NOo need to be careful with the blow.

  12. marmico on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 8:21 am 

    Nay, peyote buttons will set you free from doom and gloom as petroleum is now 3% and total energy is now 5% of U.S. national income.

    Dontcha ya love the shallow sands of the world analyzing Bakken break evens. Extraction up 53,000 b/d in September 2014. Wowzer!

    P.S. I made an error on the 6:33 am brownie bars which you missed. My error. <A HREF="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=R5jThe Brownie Bars.

  13. Kenz300 on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 9:01 am 

    Lower oil prices and lower coal prices will be good for the world economy in the short term……..

    This will add to GDP and increase growth causing demand to rise…….. and prices will follow.

    Enjoy the lower oil and coal prices while they last……. just do not get too comfortable with them.

    The world needs to continue its transition to safer, cleaner, cheaper and more reliable energy sources.

    Climate Change is real…….

    Poor Nations Go for Solar, Wind at Twice the Pace of Rich Ones

    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/10/poor-nations-go-for-solar-wind-at-twice-the-pace-of-rich-ones

  14. ghung on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 9:21 am 

    “Poor Nations Go for Solar, Wind at Twice the Pace of Rich Ones.”

    It could be, in part, that they understand the advantages of owning the means of production locally. Poorer areas have either been under-served or not served at all by the giant for-profit or state-owned producers.

    The advantages of owning the means of production is one of the things that prompted me to go off-grid. The disadvantages are few, comparatively. It’s quite empowering (pun intended).

    Meanwhile, the gridweenies I know are looking at the ever-increasing costs of years of deferred maintenance and environmental costs as their suppliers keep their stock-holders happy. My wife and I are the only stock-holders in our ‘utility company’. Efficiencies of scale be damned.

    The bad thing about being poor is that no one pays much attention to you. The good thing about being poor is that no one pays much attention to you.

  15. Perk Earl on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 9:24 am 

    “Per/NR, thanks for the data.
    What data?”

    Marm, I didn’t supply the data, just repeated it. I’m sure NWR has a link.

    Calling on the man from the northwest.

  16. Perk Earl on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 9:34 am 

    “The energy sector is showing this situation. Lower energy use equals lower real economic activity. We can’t believe the global statistics. The equity markets say differently and governments are painting a different picture.”

    True enough, Davy. Commodities price direction has always signaled near future economic growth or contraction. Oil & coal price would not be going down as much as it has recently if demand had not curtailed or at minimum estimates of future demand were lower, and historically equities follow commodities. Why they aren’t now is anyone’s guess, but equities will need to correct sooner or later.

  17. Northwest Resident on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 10:36 am 

    Perk — The only data I provided is contained in one of the two links above.

    I’m just waking up, reading the comments while I drink my coffee and contemplate all the hard manual labor I have to do today.

    Your little ordeal with Wells Fargo reminds me how much I hate that bank. Quite a while back my x-wife raided my bank account, leaving me with zero dollars without my knowing. That same day, I used my debit card to make multiple purchases at different stores because I was working on a project and gathering supplies. Each transaction went through, until finally I got a decline. Turns out I had ten negative-balance transactions on the day, for which Wells Fargo charged me $50 per transaction for a grand total of $500. In my dispute with them, they told me that if I didn’t pay up by the deadline then they would close my accounts and send my “debt” to collections, and not only that, they would also put my name on some “black list” and no other bank would allow me to open a checking/savings account there. I would be banned! Note, by the time this happened, I had already been with Wells Fargo for many years, never had a bounced check or negative balance, and had obtained and repaid several loans from them — a really good customer. And still, they gouged me big time. Why didn’t they just decline the first transaction if I didn’t have any money in my account??? Why allow ten before declining? Answer: Because, they wanted the $500 in “penalty fees”. Like rockman always says, nothing personal, just business.

    Do big banks regularly screw their customers and constantly seek new ways to give regular folks the shaft? Oh yeah, no doubt about it.

  18. JuanP on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 11:01 am 

    NWR “I read an opinion in which the writer suggested that the goal is to just keep repeating “the economy is good, the economy is good”, over and over until it sinks in and people start to believe it.”

    I am of the same opinion as that writer and you. Since the very beginning of the 2008 crisis and ever since, I have been of the opinion that the people responsible for setting US economic policy (whomever they may be) seem to be mostly reacting to events and waiting for the economy to kick back as it always did before. The same thing seems to be going on in Europe, Japan, and a few other places, too.

    I believe the economy will never go back to what these people appear to believe it will, so I regard all these policies as nothing more than delaying the inevitable greatly increasing the eventual negative consequences.

  19. Northwest Resident on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 12:59 pm 

    JuanP — I guess there are two “schools of thought” on how the U.S. government has reacted to the crisis that manifested itself beginning in 2008.

    One of those would be exactly what you just stated. The government officials, dopes that they are, were completely caught off guard by that crises — as in, they never saw it coming. And since then, they have vainly and stupidly attempted to jump-start the economy with massive infusions of debt and other financial gimmicks all of which have utterly failed.

    The second and no doubt more controversial point of view is that the federal government — along with all the military strategic planners, the CIA and other intelligence service deep thinkers, the industry and especially oil business leaders, combined with the small collection of fabulously wealthy individuals who own it all, SAW the crisis coming and KNEW the consequences. And since then, they have implemented a carefully crafted and scripted plan to buy time, to provide an opportunity for people to prepare, to set the stage and put strategic assets in place for what they know is coming. And that would be a total collapse of the current economic system, with all the consequences.

    I don’t know, maybe there’s another “school of thought” on the subject. I tend to go with the “they saw it coming and made plans” opinion, in fact, I’m a total believer in that opinion. But only because it’s the only one that makes any sense at all to me given the way things are playing out. In other words, “delaying the inevitable” is exactly the goal they are achieving, and “greatly increasing the eventual negative consequences” is a side effect of delay that they are apparently willing to accept — as in, that’s just the way it goes.

  20. Perk Earl on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 2:26 pm 

    My mistake NWR – I was looking for your links in the wrong post, but found it after my post to marmico. Why didn’t he know the links were there?

    Anyway, Wells bilked you too for 500. Those creeps! Blacklist threat?! That probably did it though. Ought of a sudden you knew they could muscle you and it would have long lasting implications. The thing I hate about banks is they are unyielding. Like they have the right in business to turn into stone walls when it comes to ripping us off.

    That was a nightmare scenario on the bank charges – women – can’t live with them and you know the rest.

  21. Apneaman on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 3:20 pm 

    Northwest

    The U.S. government cannot be a bunch of arrogant bumbling stumbling incompetent morons AND uber clever and competent, know all – see all – control all conspirators at the same time. The universe, this world and our lives are at the mercy of randomness at a level which most humans are unable to fathom. Our brains are wired to see agency in everything, but there is simply too much complexity, too many competing factions, too many variables and too many unintended consequences for any one group to have such control. Makes for a good movie plot though.

  22. Northwest Resident on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 3:52 pm 

    Apneaman — I get your point. However, consider this. During WWII, a period of time when America and its allies were under direct, lethal threat, the entire military, security and industrial apparatus all came together and functioned as a single cohesive unit under central command and with a high degree of regimentation.

    Now, today, once again America and its allies are under direct and lethal threat, much more so than during WWII. No one can argue that the U.S. Military and intelligence services are dopes and/or are unaware of the approaching calamity. While it may *appear* to casual observers that the American government is acting foolishly and stumbling through this financial and energy crisis like a bunch of fools, I seriously doubt that is the case. More likely, the propaganda and intentional misinformation, indeed the military-grade psyops that are being perpetrated on the masses convince me that they 1) know what is going on, 2) have a detailed plan and 3) are implementing their plans. Toward what end is up to speculation. But it looks to me like on the very top levels, they have embraced the fact of a massive human die-off and are proceeding on that basis.

    And one final thought: Who can seriously deny that a massive human die-off is just what this overly-populated planet now under direct threat from human waste is just what is needed?

  23. Northwest Resident on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 4:04 pm 

    Perk — No problem. Just another case of a troll stirring up a little confusion and discord — or attempting to. No big deal.

  24. Speculawyer on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 8:43 pm 

    Australia has bet too much on coal. Now China & the USA just agreed to a climate deal. And India just said they would stop importing coal soon.

    Looks like the Aussies are gonna have fewer customers soon.

    Good. We don’t need to be burning that garbage fuel. It spews practically the entire periodic table of elements up those chimneys.

  25. Kenz300 on Sat, 15th Nov 2014 11:24 pm 

    Climate Change is real…….

    If we are to have any hope of dealing with Climate Change then all countries need to stop building any more coal fired power plants and begin to shut down the oldest ones.

    The transition away from fossil fuels is growing around the world.

    ————————–

    The fossil fuel industry is doing all they can to slow the growth of alternatives. They will not succeed.

    The Worst Koch-Funded Lies About Climate Change in 90 Seconds • BRAVE NEW FILMS – YouTube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0v1DTp0a10&list=PLQ9B-p5Q-YOPOJ9sIfgJ5_XRHFz7IatXL&t=3s

  26. Boat on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 6:52 am 

    Apneaman, I agree. Here is how much of government works. It starts with a project or goal. Different components get subbed out. The companies then sub out heir work and much of it gets subbed out and on and on and on. There is not the time money or energy for accountably for quality of work. This is how much of big business works also. When humans are involved it is always a mess.

  27. Kenz300 on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 9:37 am 

    Stop dealing with the Wall Street “too big to fail” banks. Move your money to smaller regional or local banks, savings and loans or credit unions. They will treat you better and you will find a real person that you can deal with.

    Try a Credit Union …..

  28. mack on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 11:43 am 

    NR it must be nice to live in a world that makes sense. That the U.S. pulled together for a short 4 years 70 years ago is gives little reason to think the same thing is happening now. The attack on Pearl Harbor was something very easily understood by everyone. The importance of energy depletion is a complicated subject that quickly gets bogged down geeky complexity. I’ve tried it and I quickly see their eyes glaze over when I start to talk about ELM and EROEI and the life cycle of an oil well.
    The truth is very few people find this even remotely interesting. To them energy is something is is just there and will always be there. That goes for the so called PTB. Like my son the writer says “fiction has to make sense, reality doesn’t have to make sense.”

  29. Northwest Resident on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 11:58 am 

    mack — I don’t know that I live in a world that makes sense, but I am trying to make sense out of a world that seems to lack any sense at all.

    If you accept as absolute fact that the U.S. Military and intelligence/security services (CIA, NSA, Homeland Security, etc…) are aware of and are planning for contingencies related to peak oil and climate change, then you must also accept that TPTB are equally aware and engaged in planning and preparation for what most of us know is coming.

    If you choose to discount or disbelieve the numerous statements both written and verbal made by top military and security authorities related to peak oil and climate change consequences, and instead choose to believe that despite those statements that they are clueless and bumbling idiots with no concern for their future, the futures of their children, or the future of the country they have sworn to defend, then THAT to me is what makes no sense whatsoever.

    Look up and read about military psyops. The goal is (often) to sow confusion, to create illusions, to convince people to believe that which is not true, to create fake enemies for the sake of distraction, to basically kick up a thick cloud of smoke that obscures the true goals and behind which strategic moves can be made without being seen. We ARE currently being subjected to the functional equivalent of military psyops — all the propaganda, the lies, the distortions. If you or others are unable to see that there MUST BE a central controlling command authority behind all the seemingly unrelated events that we are witnessing and being subjected to, then that would make you like just about everybody else in the world. Which is totally understandable.

  30. Davy on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 2:01 pm 

    Mack, the worst is ahead. Currently we are in peak entropy of frivolous life styles and attitudes. Soon we will be in the irrational and dysfunctional of descent. The problem with descent will be compounded with food insecurity. Many of us will be hungry without game full employment. Chaos as opposed to growth

  31. jmb on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 6:17 pm 

    NWR – ” the propaganda and intentional misinformation, indeed the military-grade psyops that are being perpetrated on the masses convince me that they 1) know what is going on, 2) have a detailed plan and 3) are implementing their plans.”

    I like the way you think NWR. You make a lot of sense in a world that makes little sense at all. Also, if you want to continue to control you need to stir up a lot of smoke and confusion.

    Same goes for market insiders, if you want to make a lot of money you need to steer the outsiders down the wrong path. We all swim in an ocean of misinformation and disinformation.

  32. Northwest Resident on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 6:18 pm 

    Davy — Welcome back from your private jet round trip to the Bahamas. Dealing with parents whose health is failing is no laughing matter, otherwise I’d be giving you a hard time about how tough you’ve got it. And I know you regret having typed “game full” employment when you meant “gainful” employment, so I won’t give you a hard time about that either. 🙂 All kidding aside, your comment about peak entropy of frivolous lifestyles and attitudes sounds one hundred percent correct. I suspect that it won’t be long before the only one left laughing will be Mother Nature, and she will most definitely be getting the last laugh. Joke’s on us, after all.

  33. Northwest Resident on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 6:21 pm 

    jmb — I couldn’t agree more. When we witness the chaos and the confusion and the dysfunction around us, we are tempted to believe that nobody is at the helm and the world is just floundering out of control. Until you realize that there are very powerful forces who use chaos, confusion, disinformation and misdirection to accomplish their ends. When you reconcile that fact with what you see, it MIGHT all start to make sense.

  34. Davy on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 8:04 pm 

    NR, yea, I feel torn at times. You know my generally negative feelings about the 1%ers. Yet here I am a part time 1%er enjoying private jets, yachts, and beach houses. I am wondering if I am suffering DNA hypocrisy.

    OH, on the game full and gainfull may have been my Iphone auto correct. “Or” it may be lazy brain.

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