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IEA Oil Market Report- December 2016

IEA Oil Market Report- December 2016 thumbnail

IEAchart/

The IEA released highlights for the December Oil Market report in mid December. I have used information from the November report and assumed OPEC crude output will be 32.7 Mb/d and non OPEC output will be 500 kb/d below the November report supply estimate. I have also used the demand estimates from the December highlights.Based on these assumptions World Supply from the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2017 is greater than demand by a total of 280 million barrels. In other words, World crude stocks should be 280 million barrels more than the Dec 2014 level at the end of 2017, if the supply and demand estimate presented is correct.

Also the fourth quarter 2017 demand estimate is 1.7 Mb/d higher than supply. If that draw on stocks continues into 2018 then World crude stocks would fall to zero by mid June 2018.  Higher oil prices by 2018 is likely to result in higher FSU and OPEC output. My expectation is World crude plus condensate (C+C) output will remain in an undulating plateau from 2015 to 2020, followed by slow decline in C+C output.

The scenario below is based on 3300 Gb of C+C URR (with 500 Gb of extra heavy oil from Canada and Venezuela combined), using Webhubbletelescope’s Shock Model with a medium URR scenario.

IEAchart/

 Peak Oil Barrel by Dennis Coyne



21 Comments on "IEA Oil Market Report- December 2016"

  1. Kenz300 on Mon, 2nd Jan 2017 10:48 am 

    Electric vehicles, biking, walking and mass transit are all part of making cities livable and enjoyable.

    As batteries continue to improve the price of electric vehicles will decline. With fewer moving parts and higher efficiency electric vehicles will soon become the choice of consumers and business. Electric vehicles need less repairs and maintenance and the electric motors outlast internal combustion engines. The established auto makers are now planning to release a variety of electric vehicles of the next few years.

    Bike to work day should be everyday. Employers need to provide places to park and lock bicycles and encourage employees to ride a bicycle to work.

    Every school should encourage children to walk to school or ride a bicycle by providing safe places to lock and store bicycles and by supporting safe walking and biking paths that connect schools, homes and businesses. Kids would be healthier and get more exercise if parents stop driving them to school and bought them a bicycle.

  2. Jerry McManus on Mon, 2nd Jan 2017 11:01 am 

    Funny, looks a lot like the Hubbert analysis I did here:

    Why Hubbert is right and the Peak Oil Idiots are wrong:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5ci5zMS_2kZOW1VdGxOUURCdVU/view?usp=sharing

    Notice how the Peak Oil Idiots always insist on zooming their charts in so tight that you can only see a few years of data? Why is that? They claim it is to see more “detail”, but really they just don’t want to bother accounting for the other one-hundred-years-plus of the fossil fuel industry.

    Just plain lazy and stupid, don’t you think?

    It also blatantly misses the entire point of the Hubbert analysis. Anyone who has even a rudimentary familiarity with Hubbert’s lifetime of work knows that he was describing the entire life-cycle of fossil fuels.

    Not just cherry picking a few recent years in an idiotic and misguided attempt to make precise predictions down to the last teacup. Which is what every peak oil chart I have ever seen for the last 12 years has stupidly tried to do.

    Yep, another point goes to Hubbert:
    Hubbert: 5, Peak Oil Idiots: 0

  3. Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Mon, 2nd Jan 2017 11:47 am 

    Kenz has been main lining hopium straight into the jugular again.

    “As batteries continue to improve”

    When was the last time the battery was improved? And what improvement was it?

    The guys a fucking paid troll for renewables. Just like scribbler.

  4. Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Mon, 2nd Jan 2017 11:50 am 

    Jerry you’re a fucking retard.

  5. energy investor on Mon, 2nd Jan 2017 7:26 pm 

    THALB, Don’t knock it. Kenz does seems irrationally optimistic, but you have to admit optimism may be necessary to get us through what is to come.

    Kenz, you may find the book “The Grid” interesting because in part it outlines what must be done before we can really use much more wind and solar.

  6. GregT on Mon, 2nd Jan 2017 7:53 pm 

    Sounds like Jerry McManus has a few screws loose, and a big chip on his shoulder about something. Not really sure what?

  7. kenxxx3000 on Mon, 2nd Jan 2017 8:03 pm 

    Kenz, ease up on the vibrator and you will solve the energy crisis.

  8. jmm on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 3:56 am 

    de electrischeteit word wel met gas en olie opgewekt.

  9. Boat on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 9:27 am 

    We will get more reports soon but oil consumption growth is projected to be around 1.3 Mbpd in 2017. This seems to be inline with global growth the last several years. Steady as she goes.
    Production on the other hand is up in the air. How much will OPEC/Russia cut. Will Nigeria and Lybia continue add oil and when.
    If the US and world add as much as OPEC cuts will they go for another round of cuts or resume production. Resuming production could cause oil to go back $30. Another round of cuts would be more lost market share. What to do, what to do when to much oil is around you.

  10. rockman on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 10:14 am 

    Investor – Thanks for the heads up about “The Grid – The Fraying Wires Between Americans and Our Energy Future”. The Rockman had not heard of it. Perhaps someone should send President-elect Trump a copy. Probably a much better infrastructure investment the the tens of $BILLIONS spent on other “shovel ready” projects in recent years. From a review:

    “America’s electrical grid, an engineering triumph of the twentieth century, is turning out to be a poor fit for the present. It’s not just that the grid has grown old and is now in dire need of basic repair. Today, as we invest great hope in new energy sources–solar, wind, and other alternatives–the grid is what stands most firmly in the way of a brighter energy future. If we hope to realize this future, we need to re-imagine the grid according to twenty-first-century values. It’s a project which forces visionaries to work with bureaucrats, legislators with storm-flattened communities, moneymen with hippies, and the left with the right. And though it might not yet be obvious, this revolution is already well under way.” See more at: http://www.bloomsbury.com/us/the-grid-9781608196104/#sthash.AnIYpttu.dpuf

    You also allow me to point out for the umtenth time that the big alt energy build out in Texas would not have happened without $7 BILLION in tax payer monies being spent to improve the Texas grid. The Texas grid that is not part of the two national electric grids the book discusses.

  11. GregT on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 11:12 am 

    “What to do, what to do when to much oil is around you.”

    Pay more at the pump, of course. Which is always what happens when there is an overabundance of any commodity. Right Kevin?

    https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/styles/media_energy_gov_wysiwyg_fullwidth/public/fotw915.png?itok=q0KqIe3c

    Not to worry though, when The Glut™ finally works it’s way through the system, expect gasoline prices to be at least 200% of what they have been for the majority of your entire life.

  12. GregT on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 11:19 am 

    Oh, and BTW Kevin. Remember that recession that we entered into in ’08? You know the one that we still cannot recover from? Expect it to turn into a full blown depression.

    Now would be a very good time to buy that home from the bank. If you can afford to do so. If not, too bad.

  13. Kenz300 on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 11:32 am 

    The future of transportation is electric.

    Just like cell phones replacing land lines. Electric vehicles will replace ICE vehicles.

    Electric vehicles, biking, walking and mass transit are all part of making cities livable and enjoyable.

    Bike to work day should be everyday. Employers need to provide places to park and lock bicycles and encourage employees to ride a bicycle to work.

    Every school should encourage children to walk to school or ride a bicycle by providing safe places to lock and store bicycles and by supporting safe walking and biking paths that connect schools, homes and businesses. Kids would be healthier and get more exercise if parents stop driving them to school and bought them a bicycle.

  14. GregT on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 11:45 am 

    “Just like cell phones replacing land lines.”

    Cell phones have not replaced land lines Kenz. They have added to our communications mix. Just as EVs are adding to our transportation mix. ICE vehicle sales have been at all time record highs in recent years. Besides, cell phone networks require more fossil fuel energy than land lines do.

    If you believe that cities are enjoyable to live in, you should really try living in a rural location, and children in the cities don’t generally walk to school anymore, because it is no longer safe to do so. One more very good reason to get out of dodge.

  15. peakyeast on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 12:00 pm 

    @Jerry McManus: Thanks for the document. I enjoyed reading it.

  16. Boat on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 12:48 pm 

    greggiet,

    What world are you living in. The glut that started in 2014 cut oil prices dramatically. And that 2008 recession has recovered to full employment. Go look at some historical US charts. Most of the US housing is above pre crash levels. The US and the world are growing to fast as far as I’m concerned. You, short and a few doomers live in an alternate universe. Devoid of the facts reported on a daily basis.

  17. GregT on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 2:09 pm 

    “What world are you living in.”

    The real world Boat. Not the world of ignorance, stupidity, and denial that you live in.

    “The glut that started in 2014 cut oil prices dramatically.”

    From all time historical record highs of $147/bbl. Which would be around 500% above average normal historical prices during non-recessionary periods in inflation adjusted 2015 dollars going back for the better part of a century.

    “And that 2008 recession has recovered to full employment.”

    HaHaHa, Fuck are you ever stupid.

    “Most of the US housing is above pre crash levels.”

    It’s called a bubble Kevin. The same frenzy that lead up to the last crash in ’08 when some 40 million Americans lost their homes and most of their life savings.

    “The US and the world are growing to fast as far as I’m concerned.”

    Then you have something special to look forward to.

    “You, short and a few doomers live in an alternate universe. Devoid of the facts reported on a daily basis.”

    I don’t get my “facts” from the corporately controlled MSM Boat. I actually pay attention to what’s going on in the real world. Yet one more thing to add to the very long list of things that your dumb ass is incapable of comprehending. Idiot.

  18. peakyeast on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 2:45 pm 

    “Most of the US housing is above pre crash levels.”

    With ZIRP and even NIRP (EU). Which amounts to stuffing money down the most irresponsible peoples throats because they, of course, are the ones who will save the day…

  19. onlooker on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 3:02 pm 

    Boat, you mean facts like how rural America rallied around a not particularly conservative or religious billionaire from NY They did for one reason Boat, because he promised to bring jobs back to the rust belt and other stagnant places. It is not a coincidence that Hillary lost pretty much all these swing rust belt states. Full employment working for Walmart and Mcdonalds. Yipee.

  20. GregT on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 3:03 pm 

    The largest transfer of wealth in mankind’s entire history, and people like Boat don’t have the slightest effing clue what is going on right before their very eyes.

    Pathetic.

  21. makati1 on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 5:38 pm 

    Day by day, it becomes more and more obvious that the U$ is fast approaching Peak Stupidity, Gullibility, and Denial. Soon to be followed by civil war, a depression, and collapse of the Capitalist system. I could list hundreds of references from just 2016 alone, but those who understand already know and those who do not would not read them anyway.

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