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Page added on December 7, 2016

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EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook

EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook thumbnail

The EIA has just released its Short-Term Energy Outlook. Some of their projections should be taken with a grain of salt because they usually change every month. Nevertheless…

All US production is Crude + Condensate. All other production numbers are total liquids. The data is in million barrels per day.


The EIA has US production leveling out at just under 8.8 million bpd until Oct. 2017.


They have all large gains coming from the Gulf of Mexico.


The EIA sees no big gains coming from shale plays. They have production bottoming out in March and April, then increasing only slightly the rest of the year.


They have Alaska pretty much holding its own thru 2017.


They have Non-OPEC liquids recovering in 2017 but still holding below the 2015 average.


The big increase in 2017 average is supposed to come from Russia. They have Russia peaking in January then starting a slow but steady decline.


The EIA says China saw a huge increase in liquids production in November, down slightly in December before dropping again in January. I have no idea where the EIA got this November production data from. I could find nothing on the web that confirmed this data.


Europe consist primarily of the UK, Norway and other North Sea production. The EIA has Europe declining throughout 2017 before recovering somewhat in October.


And just out, the EIA’s weekly estimate of US Weekly Petroleum Status Report with their best estimate of US C+C production as of December 2nd. This data is in thousand barrels per day.


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12 Comments on "EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook"

  1. Apneaman on Wed, 7th Dec 2016 2:16 pm 

    Who gives a fuck about what theses taxpayer funded lobbyists predict. A revolving door of former big oil employees and big oil lobbyists and big oil funded think tank propagandists pretending to be neutral. Sometimes they go back and forth multiple times. A handful of years working in the industry, then a handful as “regulators” or unbiased counters, the back in the industry, but at much higher pay. Ya lets count barrels all day everyday 500 different ways including standing on one leg with both nostrils plugged and one eye closed. That way you have no time to think about how burning it is murdering you kids and grandkids. Oooh lets get right down into the minutia of our black gold counting because it’s sooooooo fucking important to count it all day long and discuss the many ways we can count it and who is counting right and who is counting it wrong cause nothing is more important than counting it right? I mean since humans are will to kill and die for it and kill their families and the entire species for it we might as well count it right, right?

  2. rockman on Wed, 7th Dec 2016 4:08 pm 

    Apneaman – I agree with you somewhat about blindly accepting EIA projections. But you are wrong…very wrong. The EIA is not a lobbyist group…it is the UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT:

    “The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating energy information.”

  3. Boat on Wed, 7th Dec 2016 5:46 pm 


    Give me money, I do much better predictions. The Eia is excellent however at collecting current data and yes even making their monthly corrections as more data comes in.
    My prediction for oil is more robust for US shale. Production is already growing with possible OPEC cuts on the way.. The Eia prediction of dropping production seems short sighted. We’ll see.

  4. peakyeast on Wed, 7th Dec 2016 7:21 pm 

    Funnilly I find that I find most of the predictions fair.

  5. GregT on Wed, 7th Dec 2016 7:51 pm 

    “Give me money, I do much better predictions.”

    Thats cus your speshal Kevin.

  6. makati1 on Wed, 7th Dec 2016 7:57 pm 

    Boat is enjoying a bit of winter in Texas, I noticed. More to come, while other parts of the world are much warmer than usual, including the Ps, which is enjoying a nice 4-5 degrees F. above normal. That puts it about 87F today and sunny.

    BTW: Boat is a perfect example of what is wrong in America today and why it is collapsing.

  7. Apneaman on Wed, 7th Dec 2016 8:12 pm 

    rockman, by definition “revolving door” must include at least 1 government agency and at least 1 for profit private but subsidized industry. Oh and a bunch of fucking scumbags.

    Revealed: Former Energy in Depth Spokesman John Krohn Now at U.S. EIA Promoting Fracking

    “For those familiar with U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) work, objectivity and commitment to fact based on statistics come to mind. Yet as Mark Twain once put it, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

    That’s where John Krohn comes into play. A former spokesman for the gas industry front group Energy in Depth (EID), Krohn now works on the Core Team for EIA’s “Today in Energy!“

    Krohn has been at EIA since at least January 2014, when his name first appeared on the EIA website. On his Twitter account, he describes himself as an EIA communications manager.

    As DeSmog revealed in February 2011, Energy In Depth was launched with a heavy injection of funding from oil and gas industry goliaths such as BP, Halliburton, Chevron, Shell and XTO Energy (now owned by ExxonMobil).

    With its public relations efforts conducted by FTI Consulting, EID now serves as a key pro-industry front group promoting unfettered hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) to the U.S. public.”

    That’s just one example of a scum fuck who’s salary and perks are funded by the taxpay, yet he is working for the industry. A taxpayer funded industry lobbyist. It’s like paying to get anal raped.

    My main point is that most of their counting is just jerking off and don’t really matter. Y’all obsessed deluded barrel counters think it’s all important, but you are the same as sports junkies or celebrity followers – meaningless shit you need to fill your meaningless lives. If you went into a 3 month coma you would not notice anything major changed upon awakening.

  8. Apneaman on Wed, 7th Dec 2016 8:41 pm 

    peakyeast, fair like this one?

    EIA Cuts Recoverable California Shale Estimates By 96% armchair amatures do better than this and it don’t cost millions of dollars a month..

    Go ahead demonstrate their accurate track record. Do like the last 5 years of prediction and see how accurate they have been. I bet you will find many a flip flop and post hoc revisions.

  9. rockman on Wed, 7th Dec 2016 9:51 pm 

    Apneaman – As I said my opinion of the EIA (and the USGS) isn’t much different then yours Just pointed out your error: the EIA is not a private lobbying group but a govt agency. But I also get the sense you think that makes them more credible in my opinion.

    Silly boy. LOL.

  10. TheSunIsReadytoShutdown on Wed, 7th Dec 2016 10:46 pm 

    EIA is an organization that is in the business of hiding the truth. Only conventional oil contribute net energy toward economical growth. Conventional oil is depleting fast now so is the economical activities created by it. All the other source of oil are net energy neutral some are even net energy negative (Venezuela) and don’t contribute anything toward real economical activities.

  11. Sissyfuss on Thu, 8th Dec 2016 8:40 am 

    This is the same US govt that states unemployment is at 5% with 94 million able bodied citizens on their couches playing video games 24/7.

  12. Revi on Thu, 8th Dec 2016 9:42 am 

    Projections. We’ll see. It looks like the general trend is down.

    Hard to change that.

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