This just news came out today.  Energy fact of the day: Eagle Ford Shale sets new oil output record in May, will likely surpass Bakken Shale next year From that article:

Bottom Line: If the current annual increases in Eagle Ford Shale oil production continue in the 50-70% range, which are now much higher than the 30-50% increases in Bakken Shale oil production this year, it’s likely that the Eagle Ford Shale will surpass oil output in the Bakken sometime in the second half of next year. But it’s also almost certain that oil production in both the Eagle Ford Shale and Bakken Shale formations will surpass one million barrels per daysometime in the second half of next year. For right now, given the phenomenal and ongoing increases in Eagle Ford oil output, I’m predicting that the Eagle Ford Shale will get to that important milestone of one million bpd first!

The chart above does not include condensate. The Texas Railroad Commission reports condensate separately. If you add condensate to the may numbers it would bring them up to about 684,615 barrels per day.

Here are Dennis Dennis Coyne’s predictions for both the Bakken and Eagle Ford.

Dennis is predicting that the Bakken will peak in late 16 or early 17 at just a tad over one million barrels per day and that Eagle Ford will peak in mid 2015 at just over 1.2 million barrels per day. Perhaps but it is all pretty iffy right now.

Eagle Ford wells have an even higher decline rate than does the Bakken:

Eagle Ford Shale – An Early Look at Ultimate Recovery

In fact, for all the wells in the study, the normalized oil decline was 76% and the gas 60%, with hyperbolic exponents of .25 and .40, respectively.

That works out to be about 6.33% per month. Mark Anthony has worked the Bakken decline rate out to be about .2% per day. That comes out as 6% per month for a 30 day month and 6.2 for a 31 day month. Of course we cannot be that precise but it should be noted that the decline rates for both are just awful.

There are currently about 40 more rigs drilling for oil in Eagle Ford than in the Bakken, 185 in the Bakken versus 224 in Eagle Ford. There are currently 267 total rigs in Eagle Ford but the rest are drilling for gas.

My prediction: I believe the Bakken will peak next year at just under 1 million bp/d. Or just over 1 million bp/d if you include all North Dakota. I am a little afraid to predict Eagle Ford but I believe Dennis is pretty close on that one.

Eagle Ford at night:

peak oil barrel

8 Comments on "Bakken vs. Eagle Ford"

BillT on Wed, 28th Aug 2013 1:26 am 



Bubbles come and then they pop and the next one begins to expand. More petro-porn to keep the suckers interested.

John_A on Wed, 28th Aug 2013 1:39 am 



Sounds pretty similar to the scenarios assembled by the EIA.

rollin on Wed, 28th Aug 2013 2:10 am 



Since a loss of 700K bpd by 2020 will have a significant effect on the US, what will they do next, drill the Atlantic? Other sources may have reduced production also. Nat gas should be showing signs of depletion by then. Panic may start to set in. Unpredictable responses from business and government due to lack of planning will occur. Hold onto your hats folks.

Luke on Wed, 28th Aug 2013 7:19 am 



Another end of a big revolution. Let’s steam our vessels to the Artic for a new deep sea revolution.

foxv on Wed, 28th Aug 2013 2:32 pm 



I agree with you rollin.

All this bottom of a barrel/bigger straw stuff is creating more and more complacency while the the down side slope is shaping in to a cliff.

70% decline rates! Does that not raise red flags to anyone outside of this group?

shortonoil on Wed, 28th Aug 2013 3:32 pm 



“hyperbolic” – more fun in fantasy land.

We have gone over the numbers of every major shale area, and there is not one shred of evidence to concluded that these decline rates are “hyperbolic”. They are exponential; meaning no long flat tail. They go down fast, and keep going down. By the way the Bakken is not going to peak in ’16-’17, it is going to peak in ’14-’15.

bobinget on Wed, 28th Aug 2013 4:00 pm 



We are still importing 8.4 million barrels daily.
Today’s EIA Report is still an excellent economic forecasting tool. Check out the last paragraph,
US consumption increases.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending August 23, 2013
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 15.8 million barrels per day during the week ending August 23, 2013, 71 thousand barrels per day below the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.3 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging about 4.9 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 8.4 million barrels per day last week, up by 423 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 8.0 million barrels per day, 723 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 670 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 165 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 362.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels last week and are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are near the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.4 million barrels per day, up by 0.9 percent from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged about 9.2 million barrels per day, up by 1.0 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged over 3.7 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 3.1 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is 5.3 percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

bobinget on Wed, 28th Aug 2013 4:15 pm 



A 3 million build was forecast./ This is the first build in eight weeks.

WHEN diesel shortages begin to build as Mid East crisis’s turns chronic and back again, POTUS will call to approve XL on grounds we need Canada’s oil. This further increasing US oil imports but not in a ‘bad’ way. Gulf refineries will be exporting Canada’s oil to South America. That’s the good/bad news depending on one’s POV.

If your interested, learn to look up EIA’s details on this
weekly report. They are ready this afternoon.