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Page added on August 24, 2013

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A Production Chart and an IEA Prediction

A Production Chart and an IEA Prediction thumbnail
Hey, it has been a slow last few days an I am hurting for anything to post. So I just picked out 25 countries that are obviously in decline and charted them. Hope you find it interesting. The countries are: Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Equatorial Guiana, Gabon, India, Indonesia, Iran, Libya,  Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Sudan, Syria, United Kingdom, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen and Other. Other is all the smaller producers lumped into one. 25 countries   The combined production of all these countries peaked in May 2005 at 33,462,000 barrels per day and as of April 2013 their combined production was 27,754,000 bp/d for a decline of 5,708,000 barrels per day.How things Change. The below chart was posted by Wendy as a comment on my last post. It was posted by Chevron on their site, in 2006 using data from the EIA. My Inflation Calculator says that since 2006 we have had only 15.9% cumulative inflation. IEA Chart

So the IEA is saying that we had recovered just over 1 trillion barrels of oil in 2006. (Cumulative production stands at about 1.27 trillion barrels today.) An they are claiming that OPEC had about 1.2 trillion barrels of recoverable reserves. (They are still claiming that amount today.)

And they are claiming that we have almost a trillion barrels of “other conventional” recoverable barrels at less than $30 a barrel. (That is even after adding 16% inflation.) Conventional means everything except what you see to the right of “Other Conv”.

Then they are saying that we have almost two trillion barrels of Deep Water, Arctic, Super Deep Water, EOR, and Extra Heavy Oil all at an average of about $40 a barrel. And then we have almost a trillion barrels of Shale Oil. Now this is not “tight oil, which we often refer to as shale oil, they are referring here to the Green River Shale and other such kerogen deposits.

What they were trying to say here in 2006 is that we have about 3.5 trillion barrels of recoverable oil left at an average of under $40 a barrel  and another 1 trillion barrels of kerogen that can be converted to oil at an average of $60 a barrel, on average.

I wonder what the chart would look like today. If anyone has a link to such a chart please post it in a comment an I will post the chart.

Not much news to report but I do have this. The data is kb/d with the last data point is July 2013.

UPDATE 1-Mexican crude oil output sinks to lowest level since 1995

Mexico

peak oil barrel



4 Comments on "A Production Chart and an IEA Prediction"

  1. John_A on Sat, 24th Aug 2013 7:16 pm 

    The IEA has since changed their cost/supply curve. You need the updated one, showing both more resources, and at a higher price.

  2. bobinget on Sat, 24th Aug 2013 8:10 pm 

    Peak oil really means (in today’s money) oil cannot be produced profitably for under $100 in NA.
    This, NOT counting incalculable environmental damage. But does include government subsidies.

    Believe me, if there were a major oil company that could make money much under $90, I would buy shares in that company. Because of the cost/supply/BTU/ differential, natural gas has it all over oil.

    Folks at Shell and Exxon are not fools but because of political and geological conditions they are shifting emphasis from oil to North American gas, another ‘tell’.

  3. Dave Thompson on Sun, 25th Aug 2013 2:06 am 

    This 25 country chart of decline is the tell of our times. The fracking stuff that keeps the US off of this chart for now will be short lived.

  4. BillT on Sun, 25th Aug 2013 4:00 am 

    You will never see anything in articles from the big oil companies that even hint at falling oil levels. Ditto for natural gas companies. Why? At the first hint that their income is going to drop in the near future, the suckers … er … ‘investors’ would abandon them like rats from a sinking ship, which is what they are. The whole industry would collapse.

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