Not that bad?

jane · Coal Joined: May 27, 2008 Posts: 17

Forgive me for my ignorance, but I just have a few questions and please feel free to direct me to the appropriate blog if need be. There is a lot about Peak Oil I am just now coming to realization with, and just reading a few blogs has got me flowing with questions. First I dont mean to offend or speak down of anyone, I do so please kindly tell me. I can be very passionate at times as I am sure all of us are, especially with such an important topic.
With that said, I fail to see the reason why such drastic measures need to be taken in "preparation" of the impending crisis.
I also would like to point out, while the preparations made are most admirable, it is so wonderful that we are caring more about the land. Albeit because our own necks are at risk. I will say, with much trepidation, that it matters now only because we wont have energy which is what this seems to be all about, not preservation of the environment. That said... I cant help but wonder if its too much or too little too late to save our own necks?
I have every reason to believe that energy is not the only thing we seek to loose from the lack of oil. Everything will have to change. But as one of the most successful species on earth running out of oil will not slow us down. Everyone here seems to underestimate humans as a species will to survive. Status quo will change for the better while only dipping into the worst for a short time. We seem to shine in adversity.
Let us also not forget, if we just isolate America alone, America has the largest coal deposit in the world. That alone and the thriftiness of the human will to survive makes me believe, maybe, and please take no offense, this so called crisis is another American Fear as we have so many.
This one is more legitimate, however not as severe in crisis as we may think. We rely on media and so called "experts" to support our fears without truly knowing the dynamics of the issues. Not to say that anyone here is not knowledged, but in my experience I have noticed we are all guilty of believing what supports our beliefs AND fears.
If you follow what I am meaning, basically I am saying I dont know if preparing for the drop of oil energy is neccessary. Once again the media is scaring us, those who seek to loose the most are scaring us, those who seek to gain the most are scaring us and we are playing into it.
I guarantee you, whereas it may not seem like another cannot profit from you sustaining yourself by your own means, where there is a will there is a way. People in power like to stay in power, and are not likely just to give up their reigns of control after possessing them for so long.
History repeats itself, nothing will change as we turn into modern day pilgrims in an effort to "escape"the tyrany of oil dependency.

joeltrout · Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 2:28 pm Post subject: Re: Not that bad?

Jane,

One thing to keep in mind is that:

Everything is either made out of oil or is shipped using oil.

Yes there are substitutes but how much and how fast can they actually replace oil???

joeltrout
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ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people.

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1477

hippiema1 · Coal Joined: Jul 27, 2007 Posts: 15

I myself have recently, after 18 months of panics and fears, come to the conclusion that things may not be so bad--although I think I mean something very different from what you mean.

First, let me say that our lives are going to be changing. And, unlike what you imply, I thing that precious few people are telling us to prepare for change in any way--much less telling us to be afraid or fearful.

The fact that our local grocery stores may not always have enough food (grown with petroleum and shipped with petroleum) is enough to make me worry what will happen not only in terms of hunger but in terms of violence in our neighborhoods. I live in an urban area with basically no agricultural land. While there is great public transportation around the city, this massive city has an astounding inability to feed ourselves. (And yes--my family is trying to figure out our options away from the city.)

On the other hand, I've finally gotten beyond some of the massive grief I've been carrying for nearly two years. I have just gotten to the point of really realizing how much we can actually do for ourselves, and realizing that those changes don't have to be sacrifices. I mean, they may feel like sacrifices when we make them initially--but some of the things I've been learning to do and live are not only "not that bad" but positively wonderful.

I'll stick with food issues: gardening has been incredibly empowering as well as a joyful exercise. Eating well--at home, with friends as frequently as possible--is WAY better than eating out as frequently as we did before. And entertaining ourselves after the meal with music we play ourselves with a few random instruments and an appalling lack of talent is far more enjoyable, once you get used to it, that having a CD playing in the background.

I've learned how powerful we are--how little we need to depend on the Walmart/Disney lifestyle to satisfy ourselves. THIS is what is really "not that bad."

I have a feeling that you might go through some of the ups and downs that come with this knowledge just as I have gone through them.

I highly recommend devoting yourself to learning some skills that might enhance your life in a changed future. Even if all this peak oil stuff winds up amounting to no big deal, you will begin to feel a kind of happiness and confidence that is useful at any time, at all times.

Peace.

bobaloo · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 464

While it's nice to see some optimism from new members, if you're not scared you're not paying attention IMHO. We're in the very early stages of the problem and look around at what's going on, at least here in the U.S. in what used to be a wealthy country.

Most all of my life I've lived the lifestyle advocated for prepping for peak oil. I've lived in the country, grown acres of produce for market and for canning and preserving, heated with wood, raised chickens and livestock, done all my own construction, including homes and barns, plumbing, electrical work, auto mechanics, you name it. If the world goes to hell I could stay on my own property and do fine for quite a long time, IF

it wasn't for other people. I look around and think about what happens when the government checks quit coming in, when the fast food joints are out of food, the grocery stores are stripped clean and the gas stations are closed. Most people don't have enough food to get through the week and don't know what to do with themselves except shop and watch TV. I live in a small town, which gives me one bit of insight, I get to know a lot of people very well, too well in many cases. I estimate that about 10 percent of the population (in a small, rural, agricultural town) will rise to the challenges while 90 percent will be at a total loss and demand to be taken care of. They've been told since birth that they're entitled to live in a certain way and they've been going deeper and deeper into hock trying to maintain that lifestyle.

Even today we're seeing electrical substations shut down because wires are being stolen for scrap, right out of operating substations. I expect transformers to be next. I suspect that we're at the back edge of the plateau, getting ready to head over the cliff. My suspicion is that by the end of the summer we'll have a much clearer idea of where we're headed, the rate of change is really starting to pick up and events are rapidly accelerating. Much of what is going on is being covered up by the mainstream media, but the financial markets are dead, they just don't know it yet, or at least they're covering the holes and claiming it's only a flesh wound. I suspect that we're approaching a nonlinear region of the chart where a cascade function begins to take effect. Once that happens you could see major changes in a very short period of time.

On the other hand maybe our space brothers will show up tomorrow and lead us all to enlightenment and the promised land, but I doubt it. Google up an online book called "The Coming Dark Age", it's a great historical summary regarding the rise and fall of civilizations for the last 6,000 years or so, it will give you a little perspective on how humanity acts under stress.

NeoPeasant · Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 4:33 pm Post subject: Re: Not that bad?

I wonder how entitled the youth of 1929 felt. Did they suddenly go into violent rampages at the sudden loss of their affluence or did they adjust and learn to cope?

I read Studs Terkel's book "Hard Times" wich was a series of interviews conducted with Great Depression survivors in the late sixties. Many of them did express fears of how thier current 60's generation would react if it happened again. So maybe we are a lot different than we were in 1929.

Personally I will remain happy if I can eat and sleep somewhere safe and have occasional opportunities to bathe.
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The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.

Cog · Heavy Crude Joined: May 17, 2008 Posts: 124

Before oil there was life and civilization. People wrote poetry, engaged in research, fell in love. There was even running water and flush toilets. Life was certainly harder and survival less certain in those times. Peak oil will mean that a large die-off is almost a certainty. We simply can not sustain the population that we have without oil. But its not the end of humans or civilization.

I take some hope that humanity can start over again but in a different way.

patience · Expert Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1401

I'm 62. I grew up relatively poor, but didn't realize it at the time. The difference in perspective of people in the 1950's and people today is pretty striking to me. I am concerned about the reactions of the current spoiled generation.

I spent most of my life in auto plants as an engineer. For a couple generations, US industry has operated on a comparatively slim (5-6%) profit margin in good times. It doesn't take a lot to upset that apple cart, when costs go ballistic and sales fall. In 1973-74, I saw unemployment go to 24.6% in the auto town where I worked at the time. I was one guy from being laid off on the seniority list when things began to pick up. It gave me food for thought. By 1978, I was 200 miles away, on a small farm, and would never willingly move back to such a situation, of being wholly dependent on industry.

Now, extrapolate that to our entire country. With 25% unemployment, you see grass growing in the cracks of mall parking lots, because there is not enough traffic to wear it off. Two out of 20+ stores still operating in that mall. Nothing sells, nobody buys anything they can't live without. Downcast faces everywhere. Been there.

Without experience, such things are hard to conceive of, so talk to someone who is 75 or 80 years old if you can, and learn all you can. We are going there.
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Local fix-it guy..

tex123 · Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 5:24 pm Post subject: Re: Not that bad?

"Much of what is going on is being covered up by the mainstream media,"

I certainly have to agree with this thought. I search dailly for any news on the subject and it is woefully inadequate. I think this is mainly to quiet the masses, panic is not pretty. If you ever catch CNBC they are one of the worst to continually try to lull the public into believing that everything is already turning around and "all is well". Hmmmm.

joeltrout · Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 5:29 pm Post subject: Re: Not that bad?

DantesPeak · Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 5:34 pm Post subject: Re: Not that bad?

Pops · Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 5:45 pm Post subject: Re: Not that bad?

KrellEnergySource · Tar Sands Joined: Oct 31, 2005 Posts: 88

What makes you think that we'll use "our" coal here, and that the foreign-owned multinationals won't just ship it off to people that can afford it?

Brian

Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 2971 Location: UK

Not that bad? It depends.

Rarely speaking for myself, I don't have debt. I don't own a car. I don't have air conditioning. I stopped using natural gas a couple of years ago, but it is nice to have a connection in case power fails. I have no need for heating oil. I don't fly across a continent and back twice a year just to carry out a cultural observance and eat poultry. I don't live in a politically unstable country or even a city to decline. Those are all other people's problems. I walk or cycle instead. I favour sturdy practical footwear that my taxes paid for already.

Maybe I am letting the team down by not having my own well and solar panels and by choosing a utility over a farm, but I reckon trying to meet relocalisation somewhere halfway is still better than staying invested in a future in which people hope to continue driving tens of miles to work a cash register or mow lawns while billions of new consumers try to get their cut of the shrinking pie. After food price inflation effects are taken into account, petrol can be $10 or $15 per gallon and my chequebook will still balance, and I did not have to grow a crop or build a remote hideout to get there. The choice between driving and eating, as mentioned by some interviewee on the news last weekend, is someone else's dilemma.

Yet a pernicious property of peak oil is no-one is fully insulated from its effects on society. If society fails to adapt, we all have additional problems. My interest here lies in where and how it may fail to adapt, with some emphasis towards resilience of infrastructure and counterproductive responses. I think people could use a glimpse of disaster to turn complacency into action. It improves their chances and mine. And so I spend a few hours of my free time providing it.

Ultimately if people do not fear a Soviet-style decline and fall as the consequence of structural deficiencies, they get something worse. That was an example of a prepared society.

So you are correct, there is a play for your opinion. You can assist in delaying the moment of truth at the cost of making the aftermath worse, or you can limit your participation now and dodge some of the consequences at the cost of bringing them forward. Such is the double-edged sword of peak oil awareness. Whose hands to play into? Why, your own of course.
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"The American people are watching the numbers climb higher and higher at the pump and they're waiting to see what the Congress will do." - George W Bush

Ferretlover · Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 8:00 pm Post subject: Re: Not that bad?

Welcome, Jane.
As you can see, we have quite a variety of posters, with a wide variety of views.
You sound like you're on the right track-which is a point for you; most people still can't find the track, the train OR the depot when it comes to energy depletion. Please read the many forums & threads and so you can update your information and views in your own way.
There's a lot of eye-opening data here. You'll be glad you had the foresight to come. Smile

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"RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto