For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 1:45 pm Post subject: Dichotomy
Officially gold will be worthless in 2030 as any authority resembling our current government will ban its possession and use within the areas it will control. On the black market it will be worth anywhere from a good Horse to a Cow or a Keg of beer...
Now the rules of ecology mean we will go back to "energy use per capita" same as mid 1800s... but not necessarily the same kind of society. It might be an eco technological society where power efficient CPUs create a WAN and where mathematics and sciences continue their advance, and maybe where "teleportation" and DNA manipulation might even be harnessed.
Remember the golden age of Italian plate armor manufactured amid chaos in Italy during the 14th century, or the prevalence of Wifi and cells in today's Somalia...
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:06 pm Post subject: Re: Dichotomy
I can see something like that, but the further into the future you go, and the further down the depletion curve, the high tech will drop off I'm afraid. Producing silicon chips, and servicing communication towers are both pretty energy intensive. Not many electronics made in Somalia, I'm afraid. That stuff is used in such places because of today's cheap energy making it possible. Take oil production down 20%, 30%, and see how many cheap electronic toys survive in the marketplace when people's first priority is basic needs. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 3:38 pm Post subject: Re: Dichotomy
Although energy will drop significantly, in real terms you can still count on terawatts of it.
In the 18th century sail ships could muster the equivalent of 10,000 hp from the wind and reach speeds analogous to today's cruise ships.
Electronics can last a while... and have a way less abrupt reliability curve than mechanical components.
I would say electronics production mobilizes maybe .1% of the energy production today.
So if global energy outputs drop even 95%, you can still localize enough of it to have pockets of high tech and prosperity.
If Africa and Somalia don't have much high tech (or Antactica for that matter), it is more because of a lack of a critical mass of people with education and literacy levels. After WWII Europe was pretty much at the level of Somalia yet bounced back in a few years, and this includes eastern Europe deprived of the Marshall plan (and openly ransacked by the U.S.S.R at the time). The secret? Lotsa engineers and lotsa literate and educated people (both in manners and bookwise education).
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 997 Location: In the suburban sea of strangers
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 4:12 pm Post subject: Re: Dichotomy
patience wrote:
I can see something like that, but the further into the future you go, and the further down the depletion curve, the high tech will drop off I'm afraid. Producing silicon chips, and servicing communication towers are both pretty energy intensive. Not many electronics made in Somalia, I'm afraid. That stuff is used in such places because of today's cheap energy making it possible. Take oil production down 20%, 30%, and see how many cheap electronic toys survive in the marketplace when people's first priority is basic needs.
There will be piles of electronic junk full of harvestable parts that a competent person could rebuild into timing, contol, communication, and computing devices, at least for quite a while. But having worked in a semiconductor fab, I agree that new IC production requires a thriving industrial economy to even remain possible. _________________ The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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