I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's brother-in-law has reportedly been arrested for aiding a possible US-backed coup against the Syrian regime, according to reports in various internet sites and newspapers of the Syrian opposition on Tuesday.
Al-Assad then sacked his brother-in-law, Assif Shawqat, from his post as military intelligence chief, while the Syrian regime tried to keep media officials from confirming or denying the arrest, according to Arab satellite TV network Al-Arabiya.
According to the report, before his assasination, the leader in Lebanon's militant Shia group Hezbollah, Imad Mughniyeh, told al-Assad about Shawqat's betrayal, having taken advantage of his position as head of intelligence.
Imad Mughniyeh was the intelligence chief of Hezbollah's secretive military wing, the Islamic Resistance. He was killed in a bombing in Damascus on 13 February.
Reportedly, Shawqat had contacts with US intelligence and was planning a coup to unseat al-Assad.
Since Saudi Arabia has already been implicated in colluding with Israel in the assasination of Mughniyeh, it is possible this collusion extends to a US-Israel-Saudi Arabia-backed coup attempt against Syria.
This probably means Israel's military exercises were actually a preparation to militarily back the coup.
The Israelis insist they are not seeking war with the Syrians, even as Israel began its biggest military maneuver in its history since 1948. This was on the border with Syria, which has been calm since the June war of 1967.
Hezbollah is uncomfortable with the Israeli maneuver, saying it neither routine - nor normal - for two countries technically at a state of war since 1948.
Adding spice to the show were the words of General Dan Harel, the deputy chief of staff of the IDF, who said, "Anyone who tries to harm Israel must remember that it is the strongest country in the region, and retaliation will be powerful - and painful."
In times like these, it is illuminating to revisit the late Anwar al-Sadat of Egypt. Undoubtedly, the Israelis learned more from Sadat than the Arabs. Sadat scored a psychological and political victory in 1973 - in addition to the famed crossing of the Suez Canal - by catching the Israelis off guard.
He began to send off messages to Tel Aviv - using all kinds of language to assure them that Egypt was not seeking war with the Jewish state. First, he requested that all Soviet experts working in Egypt since the days of Gamal Abdel Nasser return to the Soviet Union in July 1972. In all, almost 20,000 advisors were expelled. He wanted to assure the Americans, and also wanted the Israelis to believe that he was not planning a war.
Israeli intelligence believed Egypt would not and could not go to war unless it had arms from the Russians. A spy in the Egyptian army, whose name until today has not been revealed and is known only as "the source", told the Israelis Egypt wanted to regain Sinai, but Cairo would not go to war unless Moscow supplied it with fighter-bombers to neutralize the Israeli Air Force and scud missiles to be used against Israeli cities.
As long as the fighter-bombers had not arrived, Israel believed Sadat would never attack because he did not have the weapons for war. The Israelis also believed that if Egypt did not attack, then Syria also would not. Both the Americans and Israelis believed the expulsion of the Soviet advisors would greatly weaken the Egyptian army.
Sadat also made sure that a constant stream of false information was given to Israeli intelligence. For example, Egypt made it public that it did not have trained or qualified soldiers to work with the new weapons that came from Russia. It also sent messages to Israel that it had a major problem with spare parts for its tanks and airplanes. In May and August 1973, he threatened to go to war. The Israelis mobilized to fight and Sadat did nothing.
Each mobilization cost Israel about US$10 million. Because he always threatened to go to war against Israel and never did anything, nobody believed him in 1973. That is exactly what Sadat wanted and he, along with Syrian president Hafez al-Assad, managed to catch the Israelis off guard on October 6, 1973.
That is why the Syrians should worry about the Israeli operations that started on April 6. It might be costly to mobilize in defense, but a lack of response and believing the assurances of Peres would certainly be more costly for the region as a whole, not only for Syria. There are no assurances in war; and no promises kept in the Arab world. The Israelis said one thing and did the opposite in September 2007. They can - and might - do it again in April 2008.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1723 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:13 am Post subject: Re: Syria: Attempted Coup - al-Assad's brother-in-law arrest
If the purpose of the mobilization was to back a coup that has now failed - they may not.
Unfortunately, if the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia just launched a failed coup against Syria, I wouldn't be placing any bets on what any of the players might do next.
Your Trollishness is beginning to make you look simple minded. Surely you have a few more brain cells you can put to work. _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 4:24 am Post subject: Re: Syria: Attempted Coup - al-Assad's brother-in-law arrest
Quote:
According to the report, before his assasination, the leader in Lebanon's militant Shia group Hezbollah, Imad Mughniyeh, told al-Assad about Shawqat's betrayal, having taken advantage of his position as head of intelligence.
Maybe Mughniyeh wanted Shawqat brought down for his own person reasons. Maybe al-Assad was going to get rid of Shawqat anyway so he decided to get some good anti-U.S. propaganda out of it. Maybe the U.S. was organizing a coup against al-Assad. In these situations, how do you make judgements about what's going on and what's really going on? Do any of you really know the motives of the people involved?
One thing I've come to understand from living abroad is that Americans are easily fooled because we're relatively straightforward, and we perceive the world in a relatively straightforward way. We don't recognize the convoluted machinations of rival businessmen and politicians, and they take advantage of that.
I see the Middle East as a big pit of vipers that are all twisted and curled around eachother. I can't tell which tail belongs to which head. _________________ "We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1723 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 9:56 am Post subject: Re: Syria: Attempted Coup - al-Assad's brother-in-law arrest
Americans are easily fooled because critical thinking skills are not taught in the public schools. Americans are not exposed to logic and epistomology until college, if then. The American education system is designed to produce good workers. Deference to Authority and 'experts' are the central core to American education.
Add to that the constant Corporatist Media propaganda blitz and you end up with a bunch of sheeple who haven't a clue.
Like I said; Facts DO exist. Motive DOES exist. Actions ARE observable. What is really going on CAN be discerned.
Part of the American Propaganda put forward is the falsehood that you can never really know what is going on, it's all just SO complicated, and besides it's all who you talk to. BULL. _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Last edited by Cid_Yama on Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:37 am; edited 1 time in total
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