Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 8:52 am Post subject: Oil Drum bit about Saudi forecast oil prod
what I get from this piece is that while ghawar and others are declining, there are "new" discoveries which will slightly offset that decline, or extend the plateau of production.
Is that how others read it?
I thought the estimates of how much oil, how many fields, etc. were known and that basically, PO predictions based on no stone left unturned estimates.
Guess a couple big fields sneaked on thru...
z
snip:
Has oil crude production in Saudi Arabia peaked? Some claim that it did as of 2006, although the slate of new production -- including the redevelopment of Khurais and Manifa -- would suggest that 2006 levels will be exceeded in the next few years.
Posted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 12:43 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Drum bit about Saudi forecast oil prod
zeke wrote:
what I get from this piece is that while ghawar and others are declining, there are "new" discoveries which will slightly offset that decline, or extend the plateau of production.
Is that how others read it?
I thought the estimates of how much oil, how many fields, etc. were known and that basically, PO predictions based on no stone left unturned estimates.
Yeah, there are many forecasts. Differences may be the decline rate of mature fields (I think a %3 decline rate vs. a 5% rate is significant). Also, projecting reserves and future undiscovered production is guesswork.
The cool thing about this forecast is the satellite images showing where drilling is taking place. No where else to drill in these mature fields, the net extraction decline won't be long now.
Posted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 1:15 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Drum bit about Saudi forecast oil prod
[quote="GoghGoner"]
zeke wrote:
No where else to drill in these mature fields, the net extraction decline won't be long now.
that article said or suggested that these other fields' production could mask Ghawar's decline. To me, that's more than enough ammo for the cornucopeans to declare PO null and void, problem solved, and destroy the slim potential for getting more of the population on board with PO, so that we might have an armpit hair's chance of making some changes.
If stories like this one gain traction, PO could wind up in the junk bin with Y2K and other things...
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