We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5694 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 9:50 pm Post subject: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
In the past decade, as we know, millions of Americans bought big, ugly, often slapdashedly-constructed boxes they call homes. Lots of those houses are in foreclosure now or getting close to it. But many more will remain in the purchasers' hands for the time being.
Houses start getting old pretty fast. Roofs wear out and need repairs or replacement, plumbing and sewer/septic and wiring problems emerge, paint peels, siding warps or splits, termites gnaw, foundations crack, basements flood, wood rots, crawlspaces and drywall grow black slime (the list goes on). Houses are almost like boats in their need for frequent maintenance---maintenance that often must be purchased at exorbitant cost from a small army of rough types driving huge pickup trucks and vans. Most US homeowners, especially those of this new breed, know next to nothing about doing it yourself. Even those who do have know-how must cope with fantastically inflated prices for almost everything on the racks at Home Depot and Lowe's.
The next chapter in the unfolding real-estate disaster will be maintenance, or rather the lack thereof. People won't be able to afford it and their houses are going to start falling apart. This will add to the already incredible downward pressure on housing values. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 10:01 pm Post subject: Re: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
Good point.
It's been quite some time since I had to deal with mortgages...but isn't there a provision that requires upkeep of the property? And if there is, wouldn't failure to maintain put the property into default?
Joined: Aug 31, 2004 Posts: 275 Location: Austin, TX
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 10:01 pm Post subject: Re: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
Yeah, in hot and humid climates like East Texas, if prohibitively-expensive electricity forces homeowners to switch off the A/C, the house (drywalls, carpets) will quickly succumb to mold. _________________ AKA Polemic, NordicHero
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5694 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 10:08 pm Post subject: Re: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
Jack wrote:
Good point.
It's been quite some time since I had to deal with mortgages...but isn't there a provision that requires upkeep of the property? And if there is, wouldn't failure to maintain put the property into default?
Now there's a ray of sunshine...
Great Scott, you're right, Jack! More grist for the doom mill. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 10:12 pm Post subject: Re: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
Jack wrote:
Good point.
It's been quite some time since I had to deal with mortgages...but isn't there a provision that requires upkeep of the property? And if there is, wouldn't failure to maintain put the property into default?
Now there's a ray of sunshine...
With all the people who are outright not paying their mortgage and/or stripping the house bare, I cannot conceive o the mortgage companies looking for more houses to forclose upon. In fact, I really think that my mortgage company should send me the equivalent of a Christmas bonus if I make all my payments for the year!
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 10:27 pm Post subject: Re: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
Mould is not a problem of A/C or lacking of it it's a problem of inadequate building.
I reckon in Australia there's the same problem with the newer houses.
The real Queenslander houses are getting older shed their paint, but the real run down houses you can see are maybe built in the 70th.
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 10:41 pm Post subject: Re: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
one_more_day wrote:
With all the people who are outright not paying their mortgage and/or stripping the house bare, I cannot conceive o the mortgage companies looking for more houses to forclose upon. In fact, I really think that my mortgage company should send me the equivalent of a Christmas bonus if I make all my payments for the year!
Much depends on your underlying assumptions.
Under the current paradigm, your (apparent) assumptions work well.
Notice that credit card companies have become eager to pounce at the first sign of default. Will housing be different? I wonder.
And suppose houses continue downward. When will an owner look at their house, conclude the mortgage is twice as much as the value of the house - which is now beginning to fold in on itself - and simply walk away?
By the way...there is a house in quite a nice neighborhood. The fellow purchased it for cash - $1 million. (Actually, it was a check, not a suitcase full of $100 bills...)
Anyway, he wound up getting a home equity loan and defaulting. The house has been seized by the bank. The plumbing has failed. The walls inside are covered with mold. From time to time, he comes by, breaks in, and takes a few of the possessions he left behind.
That house will never be sold. It will be bulldozed.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 3614 Location: Working the Beat
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 11:01 pm Post subject: Re: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
I predict that Terex will roll out a gigantic McMansion chipper-shredder and an enormous hydraulic arm will just pick the foreclosed homes up one by one and throw them in the McMansion shredder and it will spit out little bits of pureed American Dream to be recycled into more overpriced empty simulations of happiness.
If times get hard enough, the shavings could even be used as filler for Soylent Green. _________________ We're all Big Wave Riders. Some just don't realize it.
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2305 Location: Arlington, VA
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 11:02 pm Post subject: Re: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
My house made it through the great depression (built in 1905). You think this will be worse than that ?
Wait... don't answer that.
Bigtex->
Quote:
I predict that Terex will roll out a gigantic McMansion chipper-shredder and an enormous hydraulic arm will just pick the foreclosed homes up one by one and throw them in the McMansion shredder and it will spit out little bits of pureed American Dream to be recycled into more overpriced empty simulations of happiness.
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 4:44 am Post subject: Re: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
OP is right about maintenance.
Ask anybody who has built their own house. You get the last nail in, you're already fixing stuff. It's a constant process.
The worst part about the McMansions won't be upkeep however, even given their generally crappy construction quality.
It will be . .. ENERGY.
You get yourself a nice 5,000 sf monster with 2x4 framing and crappy fiberglass insulation and you've got yourself a whopping R value of about R-18 in the walls. All those walls! And that Lawyer Foyer, 16 feet tall, with lots of big, heat leeching windows.
And you see that some have 2 - count 'em, 2! - A/C units, and some have 2 hot water heaters.
Most have crappy forced air heating systems so the A/C can be doubled in.
Most burn FF - propane or oil if you're far from the center, maybe electric. If you're really unlucky, you've got gas.
And those mortgage payments are killing you.
And winter is 4 months away.
The American Nightmare . . . It's January 24, 2009. You're 3 months in arrears on your ARM, your bloatmobiles are drinking 300 dollars of gas a week, the house on which you took a 100% leveraged position is down 30% in value from what you paid, and the best part?
The heat is set on 60 because you can't afford to put it any higher!
Yes folks, the shine has worn off the McMansion - welcome to financial hell. _________________ It's 11:59
------------
OPEC sec. gen. Abdullah al-Badri, June 10, '08: "We are panicking too much."
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If you're not a Doomer, then you don't understand the problem.
------------
Part of the problem is believing that there is a "solution"
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 474 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 4:58 am Post subject: Re: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
Great thread! More grist for the grinder of doom for sure....hehe.
The things you've pointed out Heineken really do hit the nail on the head (pardon the pun). Houses really do fall apart pretty quickly if they're not constantly taken care of, although there seems to be a huge difference in yearly maintenance costs between pre- and post-1982 homes, which is why I'm quite happy to live in a 1961 vintage split level. This thing has no attic, simple, low-angle roof without those silly peaks and valleys, and when it comes time to re-roof the house, you can bet I'll be doing it myself, as well as just about anything else that needs to be done to this thing.
But sadly, most people don't even know how to properly hammer in a nail, let alone deal with the complexities of roofing repair, or how to prevent mold from forming in the crawlspace, or even such routine things as painting the exterior of the home when it's needed.
I shudder to think of the time when millions of people are unemployed and no longer able to afford to take care of their homes, even if the government is benevolent to allow a universal debt default...not to mention the issue of property taxes, which easily go up, but very rarely ever go down.
So yeah, time to fire up those 'dozers to do some McMansion-crushing...now, there's a fun job worth having...LOL. _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 5:40 am Post subject: Re: House Maintenance Woes: The Next Disaster
McMansions are a breed unto themselves. They are BUILT with a life-expectancy of 20 to 50 years and they are maintenance heavy. There's growing recognition that the unhealthiest place on earth to live is inside an off-gassing box shrink-wrapped in plastic. It's a nasty bit of business. Vinyl windows typically last 20 years or less and when they fail, it's into the dump! They can't be serviced when their mechanisms fail.
Conversely, older homes (pre-ww2) require less maintenance. For instance, old double hung windows can be repaired every 50 or 60 years and will then provide another half-century of no-maintenance (or low maintenance) service. Cypress and cedar exteriors are healthy and naturally insect and rot-resistant. Slate roofs (such as the one on my 1920s home) will last forever - if the fasteners don't fail.
Old homes are built to last for many, many decades - unlike the new crap. And old homes are designed to be naturally comfy in the summer and winter. McMansions are built for always-on artificial weather. It's hard to get cross ventilation when the rooms have no windows or only one window.
As to the covenant of good repair on mortgage documents, I know of NO instances where that has been enforced. usually by the time a house is physically falling apart, the mortgage payments are way, way overdue. Few lenders want to take back properties and/or would do so because of this covenant.
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