Posted: Sun Jun 24, 2007 5:40 am Post subject: Re: BP statistical review of world energy 2007
Here is a list of countries whose production declined between 2005 and 2006, in order of magnitude of the decline: Units are Thousand Barrels per Day:
Saudi Arabia -256
Norway -190
United Kingdom -173
Nigeria -120
Venezuela -113
Mexico -77
Indonesia -58
Syria -41
Yemen -36
Oman -36
Denmark -35
Vietnam -31
Turkmenistan -29
USA -24
Chad -20
Malaysia -20
Egypt -19
Other Europe & Eurasia -15
Algeria -11
Australia -10
Argentina -10
Romania -9
Italy -7
Tunisia -5
Other Africa -4
Other S. & Cent. America -3
Gabon -2
Uzbekistan -1
Here is a list of countries whose production increased between 2005 and 2006:
United Arab Emirates 218
Russian Federation 217
Azerbaijan 202
Angola 176
Iraq 166
Canada 106
Brazil 93
Qatar 87
Libya 84
Iran 75
Kazakhstan 70
Kuwait 61
China 57
Sudan 42
India 23
Thailand 21
Other Asia Pacific 18
Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville) 16
Brunei 15
Cameroon 5
Peru 4
Colombia 4
Ecuador 4
Trinidad & Tobago 3
Equatorial Guinea 2
So I guess the underlying message of this is: the collapse of the north sea, and cantarell, was roughly offset by the increase by the UAE and Russia and Azerbaijan.
So this would tend to explain why the UAE has enough money to construct a massive artificial island out in the middle of nowhere, and why Russia is able to start to push us around politically.
It does not explain Azerbaijan. I wonder if they know that they are now one of the most powerful nations?
Posted: Sun Jun 24, 2007 4:21 pm Post subject: Re: BP statistical review of world energy 2007
I found this a telling statistic. It is the year on year production change (in %) for 2006 for the world and various segments.
Without the former Soviet Union we would be facing a decline.
What is striking is the decline percentages for the mature countries. To me it seems that the decline rate of 2% we have been talking about might be rather optimistic and that we might be facing a much higher rate.
Quote:
TOTAL WORLD 0.4%
European Union 25 # -9.0%
European Union 27 # -8.9%
OECD -2.2%
OPEC 11 0.2%
OPEC 12 0.7%
Non-OPEC £ -0.5%
Former Soviet Union 3.9%
Posted: Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:22 pm Post subject: Re: BP statistical review of world energy 2007
Quote:
we might be facing a much higher rate
You might be right on this, we have talked about the "nordic slide" before, where once the decline gets going, like in the north sea, it really accelerates.
Here is a list of the top 11 countries for consumption decline.
Note that they fall into three general categories: Those countries mainly up around scandinavia that are cutting back on consumption because they want to (Japan is included in this) those countries that are cutting back on consumption because they cannot afford to import oil (philippines, indonesia, Turkey, Egypt) and the US and Canada that switched out of oil for some uses (but are using just as much gasoline as always).
So at least if Russia is supporting the whole game right now, the major customers of Russia, namely Japan and Scandinavia, can see the writing on the wall.
The ramifications of Egypt and Turkey getting into supply issues are pretty serious....they are among the few moderate islamic states over there.
Quote:
USA -0.013
Canada -0.015
Philippines -0.019
Egypt -0.024
Japan -0.037
Peru -0.039
Finland -0.040
China Hong Kong SAR -0.043
Turkey -0.047
Iceland -0.055
Kuwait -0.104
Azerbaijan -0.107
Indonesia -0.119
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