Doomer Logic Glitch

JohnDenver · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Aug 29, 2004 Posts: 1844

Doomer Logic Glitch:
--> R.Heinberg
--> D.Pfeiffer
____________________________

The doom argument in a nutshell:

(1) World oil production will peak, therefore
(2) Oil consumption in the US and other countries will peak, therefore
(3) The economies of the US and other countries will go down the toilet.

The glitch is between steps (1) and (2). Who says a world production peak means US consumption has to go down? That's not necessarily true. Maybe world production starts declining, and US consumption doesn't, or even goes up. After all, the US is rich, and the schoolyard bully.

Obviously this situation can't go on forever, but it's certainly a good stopgap, and I don't see anything to really prevent it from happening.

Or consider Canada. The world peak is irrelevant there, because their production's going up, and it's going to keep going up for quite some time with the syncrude. So their economy's not going to crash, and the party's still on! No threat to crappy debt money up there. Don't run for the hills, just move up to Vancouver.

{note to self: frame as geopolitical dynamics wrt supply/demand; EE}

Geingreen · Guest

{Comments Under Review; EE}

How much of the US GDP is tied up in trade with nations that will certainly be affected?

How will the demise of other significant world economies effect the USA?

Will they pull their money out? Sell dollars to raise wind platforms? Will the PetroDOLLAR stand or fall?

Will some countries be in better positions energy wise...of course!
But a vibrant economy is hard to build up in isolation.

Then there is the issue of resistance to USA domination of said fields....

How much oil is getting out of Iraq?
(Hint Saddam was pumping a lot more than now, of which 80% went to the USA even w/ the sanctions)

If the Iraqis are "fanatical" what are the Iranians/Persians?

In some ways becoming more "independent"/isolationist would be great for the US manufacturing (JOBS) sector, but we can run them without energy....that we would have to aquire by force(???) Why isn't our money good enough any more? (please do some research on this, called the petro dollar vs. petro Euro currency war...)

Let alone the moral question of "is it right to steal, kill, and loot" etc.

But we seem to have already answered that with Iraq.