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 Post subject: Re: Richard Heinberg's Uncanny Prediction in 2003
New postPosted: Thu Dec 11, 2008 8:01 pm 
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bratticus wrote:
shortonsense wrote:
I didn't see him mention how cheap gasoline and cheap crude caused the credit crisis?
Cheap gasoline and crude didn't cause the crisis. Everything started to fall apart at $147/barrel plus Ike and Gustav. Cheap gas happened after that because the crippled economy was using less fossil fuels and the "supply cushion" of "spare capacity" re-formed and could be used to control the price. The $147/barrel was largely due to demand creeping up on supply which can also be viewed as spare capacity shrinking.


Housing peaked at the end of 2007. THAT's when things started to fall apart. The housing bubble was created by years of artificially cheap money and lax lending regulations. The housing bubble was greatly enabled by the huge derivatives market; banks no longer needed to carefully husband the quality of their mortgage loan portfolios when the mortgages were owned by everyone else.

But smart money could read the writing on the wall and began to exit at-risk investments, seeking safety in commodities, including crude oil, which in turn created an energy bubble.

If it were just supply/demand determining crude prices, prices would have remained fairly steady in a range of, probably, $50 - $80.

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 Post subject: Re: Richard Heinberg's Uncanny Prediction in 2003
New postPosted: Fri Dec 12, 2008 5:26 am 
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Carlhole wrote:
Housing peaked at the end of 2007.
But why did people make junk investments? There weren't decent alternatives. In the start of the 20th century you could make money by investing in industry since it was always expanding. Near the end we pumped up investments in the Internet and it became overvalued then the money had to go somewhere else and we picked real estate (sort of a backlash) and then that became overvalued. Next is probably T-bills.
Industry ceased to be a viable investment as the US was on the downward slope of national peak oil and real estate on the downward slope of global peak oil. There are so many foreign investments in US real estate.


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 Post subject: Re: Richard Heinberg's Uncanny Prediction in 2003
New postPosted: Fri Dec 12, 2008 7:30 am 
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bratticus wrote:
shortonsense wrote:
I didn't see him mention how cheap gasoline and cheap crude caused the credit crisis?
Cheap gasoline and crude didn't cause the crisis. Everything started to fall apart at $147/barrel plus Ike and Gustav.


So....crude price starting to come down in the summer of 2008 caused people to do stupid things with their money in 2004 and 2005 related to how much money they borrowed for houses?

Thats...interesting.....?


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 Post subject: Re: Richard Heinberg's Uncanny Prediction in 2003
New postPosted: Fri Dec 12, 2008 4:11 pm 
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shortonsense wrote:
So....crude price starting to come down in the summer of 2008 caused people to do stupid things with their money in 2004 and 2005 related to how much money they borrowed for houses?Thats...interesting.....?

People did stupid things with their money because of a dearth of sensible things to do as the rate of growth slowed as the production rate of goods made from natural resources used for capital slowed.


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 Post subject: FSN interviews Richard Heinberg
New postPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 7:11 pm 
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Richard Heinberg interview:

"Blackout: Coal, Climate and the Last Energy Crisis"

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2 ... nberg.html

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