Review of the Olduvai Gorge

seahorse2 · Expert Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1817

I've been looking back over the paper "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge" presented in November 2000 by Richard Duncan. In that paper, Duncan predicts that there will be a die-off as energy production, per capita, decreases bc energy production will be unable to increase to meet the needs of an ever rising world population.

Duncan makes several predictions about how the future will be affected by dwindling energy sources. Unlike Nostradamus, Duncan's predictions are straight forward, easy to read, and fairly specific, including actual dates. In that he was so specific, I wanted to look back over the charted predictions to see how accurate they have proved to be over the last five years. They are so accurate, it is scary.

The paper was presented by Duncan in November 2000. He begins by stating a "slide" will occur between 2001-2011 followed by a "cliff" beginning about 2012. The cliff will be caused by permanent electrical blackouts. How accurate has he been?

(1) Duncan first predicts that 1999 will be the last year of cheap oil. When making this prediction, he had the benefit of knowing that oil prices increased fairly significantly from 1999 to 2000. However, no one at the time, at least not publicly, was saying this was the end of cheap oil. In fact, five years later, it appears Duncan was right. During that time, oil has risen from below $20 per barrel to over $50 per barrel.

(2) Duncan then predicts that September 28, 2000 (the Palestinian Intifada) will mark the beginning of "escalating warfare" in the Middle East. Although anyone could safely predict continued violence in the ME and be accurate, his use of the word "warfare" as opposed to "violence" is a critical distinction. Duncan clearly must understand the difference between warfare and violence which is common in the ME. Was he right? September 11, 2001 was the day of the infamous World Trade Center attack, followed by wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. To show just how different these "wars" are from routine violence in the ME, Japan has deployed troops in Iraq and Germany has deployed troops in Afghanistan. These are significant departures from the previous positions maintained by Germany and Japan after WWII. Iran is still a major concern and a possible conflict. So, unfortunately, Duncan's prediction of "escalating warfare" in the Middle East has proven to be accurate;

(3) Duncan then predicts that the year 2006 will mark the peak of world oil production. Interestingly, ASPO also predicts 2006 as the peak year for conventional oil production (this is a recent revision by ASPO. In 2004, their peak year was 2005);

(4) Duncan then predicts that a world "cross-over" event will occur in 2008. The "cross-over" event is that point in time when ME oil production constitutes 51% of all world oil production. Interestingly, in the February 21, 2005 edition of Oil & Gas Journal, there was an article that came to the conclusion that this same cross-over event would occur between 2007 and 2010. Wow!

(5) Duncan then states that the slide from 2001 - 2011 may resemble the Great Depression. In fact, the U.S. had a recognized recession beginning in 2001. Again, this was dead on. Although some may argue we have emerged from that recession, there is a good argument we have not. In fact, many make a plausible argument we didn't emerge from it, we have only prolonged the ultimate day of financial reckoning through loose Federal monetary policy. This is the position advocated by Steven Roach, chief economist for the brokerage Morgan Stanley. Roach says that a financial collapse seems all but inevitable. So, Duncan may prove right. We'll know in about six years;

(6) Last, Duncan predicts that beginning "about" 2012, the world will fall off the Olduvai Cliff due to permanent electrical blackouts. Eerily, as many here know, there was a recent highly publicized report done by PricewaterhouseCoopers that said "blackouts are expected to become more frequent" unless significant increases in governmental spending on the electric grid occured.

It interesting to reflect back on previous predictions and see if they stand the test of time. In the end, only time will tell, but if Duncan is right, we may not be able to discuss it in 2012 unless the grid is being run off of solar.

aahala · Intermediate Crude Joined: Feb 03, 2005 Posts: 954

5) Duncan then states that the slide from 2001 - 2011 may resemble the Great Depression. In fact, the U.S. had a recognized recession beginning in 2001. Again, this was dead on.

I was wondering which year 2001-2004 looks like any of the
first four years of the Great Depression? Shock

RdSnt · Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:51 pm Post subject:

bobcousins · Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:52 pm Post subject:

I am a natural pessimist, so I have to be careful what I think. Many times I have expected the worst, but things have turned out ok. It means I enjoy predicting doom though.

In particular, having read Tainter's book, it would seem that a widespread deep collapse is almost inevitable. I liked his book because it contains a realistic theory. I didn't realise there was so little scientific rigour in existing studies. I mean, civilizations collapse because they get morally tired?? Clearly not all cases of resource depletion automatically lead to collapse. Tainters theory of declining marginal return is interesting, and testable, but I am not sure is the whole picture. There are a number of issues not mentioned, and other ways to look at it. Declining marginal return may be a symptom of something else.

Having read the Road to the Olduvai Gorge, I initially though it was some web crazy. But having thought over it, I have to think it is quite plausible. Tainter suggests that a technological advance can stave off declining return. The only one real candidate for that is fusion power, but its a way off. We have a civilisation that is a peak of complexity, as defined by Tainter. There are definite signs of declining marginal return. Its on the brink, any major challenge now could cause collapse. Tainter predicts a collapse to a simpler state. Given our global interdependence, and dependence on oil, it is hard to see what simpler state there could be which wasn't very primitive.

I feel I now have a good picture in my head of how various theories tie together - physics, evolution, catastrophe theory, chaotic and non-linear systems - to enlighten our current situation. It is a pity that all this learning only illuminates a global catastrophe.

If history is anything to go by, we will enter an inexorable downward spiral. It is hard to see where that spiral would stop, it is equally hard to see how the status quo could possibly be maintained for much longer.
_________________
It's all downhill from here

seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2081 Location: Arkansas

Aahala, who else, do you know of, accurately predicted any form of a recession beginning 2001? Certainly not anyone on Wallstreet. The point is, Duncan made a prediction and gave a year. We had a recession the very year he predicted the slide would begin. What is your explanation for the 2001 recession? In fact, high oil prices are one common denominator in most recessions, so the fact that oil prices rose fairly significantly between 1999 and 2001 can't be ruled out as a cause of the recession or at least a contributing factor. Further, the "slide" predicted by Duncan occurs over a ten year period. We are only half way through that period. The dollar has dropped over 30% during the first five years, the price of oil has increased by over 100%, GM and Ford are on the verge of bankruptcy, most of the major airlines are on the verge of bankruptcy, the U.S. is on the verge of Bankruptcy if it continues its deficit spending (as told by Greenspan), we've had a net loss of jobs since 2000, real wages have gone done since 2000, so, Duncan's prediction looks more and more accurate every day.

Leanan · News Editor Joined: May 20, 2004 Posts: 4447

A couple of recent New York Times articles come to mind.

First this one:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/25/opinion/25krugman.html

It points out that Dubya really believes the economy is the best in recent history...because he only talks to his "base," and they are all doing great. Corporate profits are greater than they've been since WWII. The White House never talks to ordinary people, who have trouble getting jobs, and whose wages aren't keeping up with inflation if they do have jobs. (FWIW, this is a bit like the beginning of the Great Depression. So much wealth was concentrated in so few, elite hands that there wasn't enough money in circulation to keep the economy going.)

Then there's this article:

http://makeashorterlink.com/?L168225FA

Marines complaining about the lack of support (manpower, armor, etc.) in Iraq. Marines, who never complain about anything. What really got me was the part where they describe using cardboard cutouts of soldiers, because they didn't have enough men. Good grief! Maybe we are an empire on the verge of collapse.

Aqua · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 23, 2004 Posts: 171

I work for the government in my country at the moment. My department recently interviewed for 5 Science Officer posts and had to interview 170 applicants. Selection I’m told was brutal with quite a few candidates who could have done the job standing on their heads been told that they did not meet the essential criteria. I’m sure lots of people could tell the same story in lots of different countries, good jobs are really hard to find but the economy is supposed to be right on track. Anyone here feel that they have never had it so good?

Dan1195 · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2005 Posts: 245

The main portion of the theory I have trouble believing is the part about the blackouts. At least in this country, only a very small percentage of electricity generation comes from oil. Moreover, more energy sources are available for electricity generation then for automotive use. It is true that our grid is getting old, but that alone wont cause permanant blackouts. In additino a peak oil generated economic downturn should put the brakes on increasing electricity usage.

Schneider · Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2005 5:39 pm Post subject:

An update of the olduvai theory is actually under review..

Guess what !? It is worst than previously thought..the beginning of the cliff seem to be for 2008,not 2012..

From here : http://www.energybulletin.net/3294.html

The final draft of the Olduvai update is complete. The update is based on world energy and population data from 1850 through 2003. Prior to submission for publication review, the following brief is available.

The Olduvai 'cliff' event has been moved closer to the present by four years: namely from 2012 previously to 2008 in the update.

The other major findings are contained in three paragraphs of the paper's Summary:

BEGIN:

Historic data of world energy production, world population, and the ratio of the two (e) were presented, discussed, and graphed from 1850 to 2003. The graph of e revealed 1) strong growth in e from 1945 to 1970, 2) weak growth from 1970 to 1979, and 3) no growth from 1979 through 2003. The latter interval comprises the historic 'Olduvai plateau'.

Postulate 2 of the Olduvai theory states, "Energy production per capita (e) will decline exponentially from the cliff event circa 2008 to 2030." If that is true, then the population in the world's industrial nations, we argue, will go from about 3.3 billion in 2008 to about 0.9 billion in 2030, a net die-off of about 300,000 people per day in the 22 years from 2008 to 2030.

Mother Nature is waiting patiently to solve for us the problems that we either could not or would not solve for ourselves.

Can't wait for the disclosure Shocked

..

Schneider
French-Canadian

johnmarkos · Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2005 5:42 pm Post subject:

Earlier discussions of Richard Duncan's "Olduvai" paper and its revisions:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic6865.html

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic3245.html

jato · Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2005 6:04 pm Post subject:

aahala · Intermediate Crude Joined: Feb 03, 2005 Posts: 954

seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2081 Location: Arkansas

Aahala,

Is it the great depression now? No. Are we on the verge of a great depression? Maybe, unless you know something we don't, there is a lot of risk. However, keep in mind Duncan predicted a slide beginning 2001, and wala, 2001 we had a recession, and things have not really gotten that good in the meantime, in many respects, they are getting worse. So, with another six years left in his predicted slide, the jury is still out, but so far, its been fairly accurate. How do you view the accuracy of his other predictions?

aahala · Intermediate Crude Joined: Feb 03, 2005 Posts: 954

seahorse

I don't think his prediction of widescale eletrical blackouts
in 2008 or so is likely, unless NG sources decline greatly or
something unforseen happens.

The US has plenty of existing electrical power plants, given the
current(and declining rate of growth), we wouldn't have to build
any more for 20 years or more. The bite comes in producing
"peak demand" and there it is tight, but there are treatments that
are being implemented at increasing pace, such as time of use pricing,
solar PV etc. Present total electrical demand(if it weren't for "peak"), could
to generated almost entirely by existing coal power plants alone, if
we have enough coal.

About 20 states have enacted various renewanable porfolios, requiring
utilities to have 5-15% in renewables by some date a decade or more
in the future. But the utilities can't wait several years to start that, the
percentage though small will be difficult given current circumstances
and wind is the most likely candidate. To get to that level, they are going to have to push hard in the very near future, meaning some modest
amount will be available by the projected blackout date.

pea-jay · Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:42 am Post subject:

Don't be so confident on the status of natural gas...all is not well on that front as I recently wrote.

Then add to that fact, modern coal mining is a very oil-intensive field. Why? Look at the modern coal mining equipment: massive draglines, huge haul trucks, monsterous processing facilities. The whole process is hugely energy intensive, removing whole mountains to get at the seam.

THen, post peak the construction of new generation will get extrememly difficult as diesel, concrete and building supplies get harder to locate.

Just because oil only fires a limited number of peaker plants, doesnt mean the grid is exempted from peak energy
_________________
UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com