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 Post subject: Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground
New postPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:21 am 
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cephalotus wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:

But there are no rich, unhappy countries.


Seems, that you've have never been to Germany? ;-)

We have some Germans here. They're always complaining about everything. Does that mean they're unhappy?


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 Post subject: Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground
New postPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 2:13 pm 
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Ludi wrote:
odegaard wrote:
1) The only way for a person to elevate their wealth would be to do it at someone else's expenses because remember it's a zero sum game.

Depends on how you measure "wealth." If a family or group of relatively poor people pool their resources to buy land and then manage that land in such a way as to achieve maximum long-term ("sustainable") productivity, they can increase their wealth through the action of photosynthesis (solar energy), which is not at anyone else's expense.

See "permaculture"
yes and no
Immediately after PO there will be some countries that will do a smarter job of transitioning to a lower energy state.
Therefore, yes, it is possible to come out ahead of some other idiot who failed to plan properly.
but......
In the distant future, the ultimate end result will be a steady state economy. In this system every resource that can be used will have already been utilized and currently in the ownership of somebody, presumably a rich man. I don't think this rich man will be in any hurry to sell his real estate property.
Basically I'm getting an image of Medieval Europe but with more advanced technology. There was very little "social mobility" in such an environment.
Everybody will get born in a certain "social-economic class level" and stay that way till they die.
That's my vision of a post peak oil world.

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 Post subject: Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground
New postPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 2:16 pm 
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Bytesmiths wrote:
odegaard wrote:
In a peakoil world there will be a steady state economy...
I think the likes of HT Odum would argue otherwise: in a peak oil world, there will be a steadily declining economy, until energy use falls to a sustainable level.

Energy use = economy.
When I said there will be a steady state economy I meant the ultimate end result of PO.
Of course there will be a declining economy immediately after PO. After awhile it will stabilize. Exactly how far down or what time frame is any body's guess.

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 Post subject: Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground
New postPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 2:19 pm 
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cephalotus wrote:
....we don't have 30 types of donuts (I didn't see a single donut for months)...
I was going to put Germany on my list of
"places to visit before you die."
I might have to rethink that. 8)
Image

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 Post subject: Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground
New postPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 2:31 pm 
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odegaard wrote:
That's my vision of a post peak oil world.



Yeah, a lot of people seem to like the feudalism thing for some reason.

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 Post subject: Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground
New postPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 3:16 pm 
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Ludi wrote:
odegaard wrote:
That's my vision of a post peak oil world.


Yeah, a lot of people seem to like the feudalism thing for some reason.


That'll never happen here in the US of A, that's for sure. Too many guns. Too many people willing to die as opposed to being made a slave toiling the fields. Unlike the feudal lords of old, the rich of today are just too exposed to the infuriated "new poor" to survive for long.

The only kind of world we're going to have after the collapse is one in which nearly everyone is poor or at least pretending to be poor...LOL. And that's how it should be, in my opinion. Then maybe we can all get along for once. :-D

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 Post subject: Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground
New postPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 3:56 pm 
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Byron100 wrote:
Ludi wrote:
Yeah, a lot of people seem to like the feudalism thing for some reason.
That'll never happen here in the US of A, that's for sure.
Never say, "never!" In my experience, "never" is a very long time, and anything could happen.

Quote:
Too many guns.
"Too many guns" means enough guns for people to hire guns.

I've never understood how anyone could think guns solve the money inequity problem. If anything, it amplifies it. Why do people think rich people can't shoot? Take Dick Chaney (please!), for example. His "paycheck slave" even apologized for having the bad grace to get shot by him!

Here's the situation. You're hungry. Your family is hungry. You have a gun. You can a) keep your gun hidden and slave away for some rich dude, knowing that if he gets too uppity, you'll off him, or b) you can use your gun to take food from someone else who has food knowing that someone with a bigger gun, or more ammunition, or more guns, will most likely take your food away, or c) you can find a rich dude who will feed and house you in a better-than-average manner in exchange for your using your gun to keep other people with guns from taking his food away.

In "a," you're merely a serf with aspirations. In "b," you're just a criminal. In "c," you're gainfully employed. Why do you think the US can get away with being the world's bully via an all-volunteer military?

(BTW: arms sales are up 40% in the US. People are getting ready for something, even if they're not quite sure what!)

Quote:
Too many people willing to die as opposed to being made a slave toiling the fields.
It seems to me that most people have made themselves slaves already -- slave to a paycheck.

The key to being a feudal lord is not to have people suffering, but to make sure they have just enough to say, "It could be worse!" That seems to be what capitalism is all about.

Quote:
Unlike the feudal lords of old, the rich of today are just too exposed to the infuriated "new poor" to survive for long.
Unlike the serfs of old, the paycheck slaves of today willingly take on the yoke of debt that keeps them enslaved. I don't expect this to change. But I could be wrong.

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 Post subject: Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground
New postPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 4:32 pm 
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Bytesmiths wrote:
Byron100 wrote:
Ludi wrote:
Yeah, a lot of people seem to like the feudalism thing for some reason.
That'll never happen here in the US of A, that's for sure.
Never say, "never!" In my experience, "never" is a very long time, and anything could happen.

Quote:
Too many guns.
"Too many guns" means enough guns for people to hire guns.

I've never understood how anyone could think guns solve the money inequity problem. If anything, it amplifies it. Why do people think rich people can't shoot? Take Dick Chaney (please!), for example. His "paycheck slave" even apologized for having the bad grace to get shot by him!

Here's the situation. You're hungry. Your family is hungry. You have a gun. You can a) keep your gun hidden and slave away for some rich dude, knowing that if he gets too uppity, you'll off him, or b) you can use your gun to take food from someone else who has food knowing that someone with a bigger gun, or more ammunition, or more guns, will most likely take your food away, or c) you can find a rich dude who will feed and house you in a better-than-average manner in exchange for your using your gun to keep other people with guns from taking his food away.

In "a," you're merely a serf with aspirations. In "b," you're just a criminal. In "c," you're gainfully employed. Why do you think the US can get away with being the world's bully via an all-volunteer military?

(BTW: arms sales are up 40% in the US. People are getting ready for something, even if they're not quite sure what!)

Quote:
Too many people willing to die as opposed to being made a slave toiling the fields.
It seems to me that most people have made themselves slaves already -- slave to a paycheck.

The key to being a feudal lord is not to have people suffering, but to make sure they have just enough to say, "It could be worse!" That seems to be what capitalism is all about.

Quote:
Unlike the feudal lords of old, the rich of today are just too exposed to the infuriated "new poor" to survive for long.
Unlike the serfs of old, the paycheck slaves of today willingly take on the yoke of debt that keeps them enslaved. I don't expect this to change. But I could be wrong.


You're right to say "never"...it really is a long time...lol. I tend to use that term in the context of my own lifetime, i.e. up to about mid-century or so. After that, I really don't care too much. :razz:

Really, a great deal depends on how quickly the collapse unfolds. If it all goes down in a decade or two, than all bets are off for establishing any kind of stable pecking order. Chaos would reign supreme.

But if the decline is gradual enough (like spanning generations) then you might see the evolution of some sort of feudal system, coupled with trade guilds occupying towns and villages.

The "paycheck" slaves you refer to today are that way due to all the shiny toys that being in debt brings them - the 4 BRM 3 Bath McMansion. The 52" Plasma TV. The shiny new Ford Expedition sitting in the driveway. All bought on credit, of course. But it's a heckuva way to be a slave! LOL.

Increasing the standard of living is gravy for the masses - so what if people have to bow down to their capitalist masters to get their hands on the things they want. You have to admit, it's not a bad life by any stretch of the imagination.

Maintaining the same standard of living isn't so bad either. Many of the slaves that worked on the plantations of the 19th Century never gave any thought to rebelling against their masters, as they had their needs taken care of, and they had every reason to expect the same for the rest of their lives. Having true security is a biggie in people's hierarchy of needs.

But when it comes to a declining standard of living, especially if it comes fast, then it's Katy bar the door time. That stuff is just not going to go down well for just about anybody, rich or poor or anyone just trying to survive another day.

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 Post subject: Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground
New postPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 6:38 am 
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Still, I wish the "it's my vision of the future" folks would take a look at other possible visions.

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 Post subject: Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground
New postPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 11:19 am 
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Ludi wrote:
Still, I wish the "it's my vision of the future" folks would take a look at other possible visions.
The reason why I have such difficulty seeing "other possible visions" is because my observation of society gives me NO reason to.

For example:
1) when gasoline went up in price everybody was screaming for more oil refineries
2) when food was going up in price everybody was proposing ways to increase food production like subsidies
3) when electricity was going up, new construction projects for power plants were put on the fast track

Do you see the pattern? Every time there's a problem society always tries to solve it by:
building bigger, faster, more complex, more technology, more subsidies, more manpower, more, more, more
Post peak oil is NOT about more, more, more......it's less, less, less.

Mainstream Environmentalism is no solution. They've all been brainwashed because they have drank out of the same kool-aid bowl. The one that is labeled "infinity growth and technology"
For example an environmentalist would say put more insulation in your home to save on heating and buy a hybrid car to save on gas
You notice they don't say put on a sweater and buy a smaller car.
see what I mean?

addon:
That's why I see a hard crash.
However who knows what will happen 100 or 200 years from now.
So maybe you're right Ludi.
Perhaps the ultimate end result will be your vision of reality (what's it called Permaculture?)
....
....
....
first there must be a hard crash then you can have the soft and flully scenario. :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: The Vanishing Middle Ground
New postPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 1:36 pm 
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odegaard wrote:
(what's it called Permaculture?)


I also see a hard crash. *shrug*

Just suggesting those who might be interested might want to look into other visions.

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