I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4391 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:29 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
Snowrunner wrote:
True, but it's more a question of money as of time, wouldn't you agree?
It is now, but eventually air travel will just be financially out of reach. Hard to tell when that will be with oil prices going down. Of course, they could shoot up again as fast as they are going down. _________________ As long as I am around, there are no worries we have reached "Peak Words"
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 1:14 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
mos6507 wrote:
Snowrunner wrote:
True, but it's more a question of money as of time, wouldn't you agree?
It is now, but eventually air travel will just be financially out of reach. Hard to tell when that will be with oil prices going down. Of course, they could shoot up again as fast as they are going down.
Actually I think you're looking too narrowly. Holidays (air travel or any other kind) is not only limited by time but also by disposable money.
Personally, if the airline industry things it had it tough the last year they may be in for a shock, as more and more people are afraid to lose their jobs they will be out to prove that they are worth keeping, and that will mean people will take less vacation and even IF they do they will try to conserve money, even if oil would be at $10/barrel, I don't think you will see as many people travel anymore.
Which is nice, that means the airports won't be so clogged when I go on a trip
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:08 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
pogoliamo wrote:
emersonbiggins wrote:
Tell me, exactly, how hoisting a 165,000-lb aircraft to 36,000 feet for a brief half hour, only to have it land it in another city a mere 200 miles away is the most efficient form of travel between such points?
It is the cheapest form of travel - even after the high-speed train ticket prices have been cut in half to compete with the airliners it is still more expensive. )
Airlines are the cheapest form of travel?
Allow me a moment.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
-pauses-
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Ahh, thanks for that.
1€ seats on EasyJet are a marketing gimmick, not a viable business strategy.
_________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
The Korea Train eXpress (KTX) is South Korea's high-speed rail system. It is operated by Korail. The train's technology is largely based on the French TGV system
...........
On January 9, 2006, Korail reported that average daily ridership in December 2005 had reached 104,600
...........
construction cost grew from an initial estimate of 5 trillion to an actual 18 trillion Korean won (approx. 5 billion to 18 billion US dollars). On January 14, 2005,
Lets do the math here
daily ridership = 104,600
capital cost = 18 billion US dollars
$18 billion / 104,600 = $172,084 per passenger _________________ joeltrout Oct-2008: Dow 13,000 in three years
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 5:34 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
Cube, allow me to ignore your question, as amortizing infrastructure costs over a one-year operating period for any system seems a bit disingenuous, and pose another one.
How many trillions (in current value) in airport infrastructure was de facto turned over from the defense department to individual cities across the U.S., after WWII, (many for one single dollar) to benefit the civilian and commercial aviation industry, and why was all of this absent from balance sheets that would indicate a large subsidy towards airlines? Concrete runways are among the most cost-intensive infrastructures placed on planet Earth. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 6:19 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
emersonbiggins wrote:
Cube, allow me to ignore your question, as amortizing infrastructure costs over a one-year operating period for any system seems a bit disingenuous, and pose another one.
So you believe paying $172,084 per passenger is a cheap price?
Please allow me to be blunt. No matter how you slice and dice it that is a FCUKING rip off.
The south Korean taxpayers took it up the ass real hard on that one.
Admit it emersonbiggins, for that much money it would of been cheaper to just build a freeway and buy a $12,000 Hyundai for everybody instead.
emersonbiggins wrote:
How many trillions (in current value) in airport infrastructure was de facto turned over from the defense department to individual cities across the U.S., after WWII, (many for one single dollar) to benefit the civilian and commercial aviation industry, and why was all of this absent from balance sheets that would indicate a large subsidy towards airlines? Concrete runways are among the most cost-intensive infrastructures placed on planet Earth.
Haven't we gone over this?
ALL forms of transport are subsidized.
If it was up to me I'd pull the plug on all subsidies and let the puzzle pieces fall wherever they may.
//
What would the world look like in such a scenario?
Obviously there would be much less freeways and airlines but your HSR dream would surely go down the tubes. Nobody would pay that type of money if they had to pay it out of pocket. _________________ joeltrout Oct-2008: Dow 13,000 in three years
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:10 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
emersonbiggins wrote:
Airlines are the cheapest form of travel?
Allow me a moment.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
-pauses-
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Ahh, thanks for that.
1€ seats on EasyJet are a marketing gimmick, not a viable business strategy.
Yes, airlines are cheapest form of travel. Not only that, they are the fastest, the most energy efficient and ... the most ecological way to travel. That is the reason why they actually make money most of the time.
And more material for you to laugh on -
This is also the reason they got abused the most and billions of people are wasting resources flying around with no purpose. Ah, I forgot, they apparently are considered to be the most pleasant and enjpyable form of travel.
Last edited by pogoliamo on Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
pogoliamo wrote:
emersonbiggins wrote:
Airlines are the cheapest form of travel?
Allow me a moment.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
-pauses-
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Ahh, thanks for that.
1€ seats on EasyJet are a marketing gimmick, not a viable business strategy.
Yes, airlines are cheapest form of travel. Not only that, they are the fastest, the most energy efficient and ... the most ecological way to travel. That is the reason why they actually make money most of the time.
[citation needed]
High-speed rail is SEVEN TIMES as efficient as an airliner, during typical loading conditions.
I must admit - you're getting the hook caught in my mouth. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
George Carlin
Last edited by emersonbiggins on Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:23 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
cube wrote:
emersonbiggins wrote:
Cube, allow me to ignore your question, as amortizing infrastructure costs over a one-year operating period for any system seems a bit disingenuous, and pose another one.
So you believe paying $172,084 per passenger is a cheap price?
Please allow me to be blunt. No matter how you slice and dice it that is a FCUKING rip off.
The south Korean taxpayers took it up the ass real hard on that one.
Admit it emersonbiggins, for that much money it would of been cheaper to just build a freeway and buy a $12,000 Hyundai for everybody instead
I dunno; one the one hand, it IS a lot of money. On the other hand, the rails themselves might have a useful life of 100+ years, making the inflation-adjusted cost seem pretty minimal. It's a gamble, and they took it. Unfortunately, they took it at a highly inopportune time for building infrastructure in general, in years where material cost doubling times were measured in months, not years.
I shudder to think what the interstate system would cost were we to build it from scratch, starting today.
I'll throw out $5 trillion, as a starting point. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:31 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
pogoliamo wrote:
...
Yes, airlines are cheapest form of travel. Not only that, they are the fastest, the most energy efficient and ... the most ecological way to travel. That is the reason why they actually make money most of the time.
Well.......technically speaking......if you have a car that's paid off, there's nothing cheaper than carpooling. _________________ joeltrout Oct-2008: Dow 13,000 in three years
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:40 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
cube wrote:
pogoliamo wrote:
...
Yes, airlines are cheapest form of travel. Not only that, they are the fastest, the most energy efficient and ... the most ecological way to travel. That is the reason why they actually make money most of the time.
Well.......technically speaking......if you have a car that's paid off, there's nothing cheaper than carpooling.
You know, you could just call him out on his bullsh*t.
I mean the words "airlines" and "profitable" don't exactly go together, unless conjugated by the phrase "are almost never."
_________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:49 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
cube wrote:
Lets do the math here
daily ridership = 104,600
capital cost = 18 billion US dollars
$18 billion / 104,600 = $172,084 per passenger
Yes lets.
The 104,600 are daily ridership. Does Easyjet pay off their jet on the first day?
Let's try the math for, say, a year:
104,600x365 days == 38,179,000
$18 billion / 38,179,000 == $471.46
After one year. Now, ignoring operating costs for the moment, how long do you think the rails and trains last?
And lastly, in the cost for your airplane, have you factored in the cost for the airports? Or do get people on there via Skyhook and drop them with parachutes?
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: Re: Air France figures it out, e.g. high-speed rail
cube wrote:
pogoliamo wrote:
...
Yes, airlines are cheapest form of travel. Not only that, they are the fastest, the most energy efficient and ... the most ecological way to travel. That is the reason why they actually make money most of the time.
Well.......technically speaking......if you have a car that's paid off, there's nothing cheaper than carpooling.
Not if you calculate the risk of crashing your car or the risk of it breaking down. Not if you include the highway cost. Not if you include the health damage which long travel may cause you. Not if you go from place A to Place B and in between there is a huge mountain like the Alpes, lake or a sea. Not if you include the cost of your driving license. Not if you include the cost of your labor and the car maintenance costs. Not if you include the car insurance. Not if you include a hotel costs for a night o two. Not if you add food for a day or two. And it goes on... Not if you get a fine for breaking the spead limits. Not if you take once or twice the wrong highway exit Not if you are in Europe - do you know how much the gas costs over here?
and finally...
Not if you are like me and nobody likes you and want to pool with you
But for one reason I'l do it with my familly. I am so romantic after all
But wait, train travel is romantic too... I'll think again...
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Not if you are in Europe - do you know how much the gas costs over here?
