Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4338 Location: Graceland
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
The last few posts reflect, to me, the danger in having a distorted market based upon speculation (I am thinking oil and natural gas), while there are serious fundamental problems that the speculation induced distortions are masking at the worst possible time.
If someone wanted to understand this issue, I think they would have to give about equal weight to supply constraints, elasticity of demand (I just mean demand sensitivity to large and small price movements) and market distortions due to speculation.
Speculation has made a lot of people a lot of money, but unfortunately it has wrecked any kind of clear horizon on what's actually happening.
The fact that the oil services sector is getting the snot kicked out of it right now would be Exhibit One in my case (down 30% or so in the last three months). That makes no sense--you've got transparent earnings (which should draw investors away from financials), great fundamentals, high barriers to entry, excellent prospects in the next 5-10 years, and Congress let the offshore drilling ban lapse yesterday. The sector is getting no bounce today at all, though. Nothing. You can buy RIG today with a P/E of 7 with double digit revenue and earnings growth, as well as double digit ROE and ROA and contracts booked out as far as the eye can see. The market gives all that a P/E of 7. To me, that seems like a pretty good place to put money right now.
People have this idea that a bad economy is going to send oil back to $50 a barrel, and I think most of us here understand why that is highly unlikely. Even if there were a mini-glut in the next few years, I am certain that OPEC would immediately take measures to firm up prices.
It's funny to me how Boone Pickens is viewed as this amazing investor because his hedge fund has returned 30% a year for several years (excluding 2008, so far), but you could have gotten exactly the same return by just investing in one of many energy mutual funds.
Gas is only up in Dallas about 20 cents over pre-hurricane levels, though the paper told us that there might be shortages in the next couple of weeks. It's pretty puzzling how there is no price increase coinciding with this potential shortage. _________________
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
The minimum New England (Padd IA) distillate inventory was 2.449 million barrels. There were low supplies in 2000 and 2003 that caused shortages of fuel in hte northeast, and the minimum inventory in those cases reached roughly that level.
The current inventory in this PADD district is 7.481 mbbl.
The inventory for the corresponding week for the last four years was as follows:
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3358 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 5:16 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 wrote:
The minimum New England (Padd IA) distillate inventory was 2.449 million barrels. There were low supplies in 2000 and 2003 that caused shortages of fuel in hte northeast, and the minimum inventory in those cases reached roughly that level.
The current inventory in this PADD district is 7.481 mbbl.
The inventory for the corresponding week for the last four years was as follows:
And I can't help but wonder if the amount of heating oil stored at homes is sitting at? It has been high all summer, did people put off their purchases in the hope that prices would go down? Could they afford to buy as much when they did buy? _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
The EIA's previous explanation for why gasoline inventory hadn't gone through the floor and reached China by now was that refiners in other parts of the country have taken up the slack - perhaps at the expense of distillates, or propane, which has its own special section in the TWIP summary. Correct me if it doesn't work that way, of course...
Other source of salvation is increased imports, but they've only been beefed up perhaps 250kb/d. Most puzzling.
Reason prices haven't gone through the roof and reached the Moon I would chalk up to decreased demand - lots of frightened citizens never straying above 25 MPH who wonder if they can find a station whose pumps aren't bagged - and nigh-universal invective directed at gougers.
Nice market summary, Tex. Give 'em time, when the IEA starts showing worldwide declines month after month people will...crap themselves with fear, and ETF's will be hotter than a cat with its tail in a wall outlet. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
TheDude wrote:
Reason prices haven't gone through the roof and reached the Moon I would chalk up to decreased demand - lots of frightened citizens never straying above 25 MPH who wonder if they can find a station whose pumps aren't bagged - and nigh-universal invective directed at gougers.
I'd reverse those. Possibly the biggest reason for no serious price spikes is that there are 50 state Attorneys General, and the vast majority of them would like to be Senator or Governor some day. The risk of a political pillory is too great. _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 7:56 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Worst Week Ever
Just when we thought the refinery situation couldn’t get any worse, refinery usage stumbled further down the basement stairs. Utilization fell from 77.4% in the prior report to 66.7% in today’s report. That’s right – one-third of all US refining capacity was unused last week, making it the worst week ever.
Energy analysts remained nonchalant about region-wide gasoline shortages. Supplies are on the way they said. But where would those supplies come from? The all important Colonial Pipeline was completely shutdown today at its source today due to a fire ( http://www.peakoil.com/post776230.html#776230 ), condemning many eastern states to at least two more days of shortages.
Supplies also are said to be crossing the Atlantic towards Eastern ports. While total US gasoline imports averaged about 1.2 million barrels per day last week, that by no means is a huge amount. A level close to 1.5 mbpd should be expected under such dire circumstances. But as wholesale gasoline prices fell back this last week, oil traders reported that less gasoline will be arriving from foreign ports once a coming two week surge in imports has past.
It appears, as we have stated before, that the ‘price signal’ is broken, and ‘demand destruction’ will not come as a result of high prices, but lack of supply. But even today, that conclusion was frequently turned on its head by the media, who stated that falling consumption of gasoline was due to a slowing economy – and not lack of supply.
No matter who is right, such a significant drop in gasoline consumption means that we indeed have begun a serious economic decline - at least in the affected states.
_________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:22 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Hi all
been tracking this forum which i think is smashing. first post and quick question: looking at PADD 1 Refining data, does anyone know why Finished Gasoline Production is about 10-50% higher than Crude Oil Input? its seems counter-intuitive to me. And it has been such since Apr-2006.
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 5:51 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
DantesPeak wrote:
Worst Week Ever
Just when we thought the refinery situation couldn’t get any worse, refinery usage stumbled further down the basement stairs. Utilization fell from 77.4% in the prior report to 66.7% in today’s report. That’s right – one-third of all US refining capacity was unused last week, making it the worst week ever.
Energy analysts remained nonchalant about region-wide gasoline shortages. Supplies are on the way they said. But where would those supplies come from? The all important Colonial Pipeline was completely shutdown today at its source today due to a fire ( http://www.peakoil.com/post776230.html#776230 ), condemning many eastern states to at least two more days of shortages.
Supplies also are said to be crossing the Atlantic towards Eastern ports. While total US gasoline imports averaged about 1.2 million barrels per day last week, that by no means is a huge amount. A level close to 1.5 mbpd should be expected under such dire circumstances. But as wholesale gasoline prices fell back this last week, oil traders reported that less gasoline will be arriving from foreign ports once a coming two week surge in imports has past.
It appears, as we have stated before, that the ‘price signal’ is broken, and ‘demand destruction’ will not come as a result of high prices, but lack of supply. But even today, that conclusion was frequently turned on its head by the media, who stated that falling consumption of gasoline was due to a slowing economy – and not lack of supply.
No matter who is right, such a significant drop in gasoline consumption means that we indeed have begun a serious economic decline - at least in the affected states.
I've posted else where, there was a similar phenomena in
cold war period Russia. In communism, the price is state regulated,,, (low), but unavailable most of the time or with big line ups so there was little demand and consumption.
Market forces may not work if the US Fed gets involved and
we may not see price spikes.
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 2:08 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Market forces may not work if the US Fed gets involved and
we may not see price spikes.
Could be. The goverments have made it pretty clear that they encourage free-markets as long as they freely move their way.
A lot of traders were caught out by the ban on short selling last week. No doubt they will take similar actions if speculators start pushing up the commodity prices.
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
first post and quick question: looking at PADD 1 Refining data
Welcome AceofSpades, we are delighted to have another curious viewer.
The definitions say that the "gross inputs" :
Quote:
The total crude oil put into processing units at refineries.
The overage in the northeast is roughly balanced by a corresponding underage in the gulf coast.
So I would say the blending component idea has some merit. Blending components are produced the the gulf, piped to the NEUS and turned into finished gasoline.
The EIA is usally delighted to answer questions like this via Email.
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 11:36 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 wrote:
We could see production of about 8.0-8.2 mbpd
A 1 mbd deficit b/w supply and demand?
Nationally, gas prices are down 8 cents since last week. Since we were seeing increased consumption when prices fell below $4 and that was a threat to inventories before the hurricanes, I have to believe at some point gasoline prices will go above $4 again within the next couple of months (after 11/4, I suppose).
I also suspect SPR drawdowns into the New Year since I doubt oil/gasoline imports will be high enough to bring the gasoline inventories back up to normal operating levels.
OTOH, the economy could collapse at any moment and we won't have a huge issue with inventory levels by December since nobody will have $3.00 to spend.
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:26 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Pup55 said:"We could see production of about 8.0-8.2 mbpd"
Please can you explain where your value comes from and what geographical areas of refinery production it includes. The DOE reports seem to indicate a maximum possible total capacity of only 7.5 mbpd for all refineries in the path of hurricanes Gustav and Ike. Thanks.
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