Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Oil from Canada's tar sands, currently producing about 1.2 million barrels a day, is arguably the most expensive oil in world, and is getting even more expensive.
Last year analysts estimated it cost around $60 a barrel to produce light oil from here. The most recent estimate from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) now puts that number at $75 to $90. Comparatively, Saudi Arabian crude is said to cost around $1 a barrel.
_________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Oil from Canada's tar sands, currently producing about 1.2 million barrels a day, is arguably the most expensive oil in world, and is getting even more expensive.
Last year analysts estimated it cost around $60 a barrel to produce light oil from here. The most recent estimate from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) now puts that number at $75 to $90. Comparatively, Saudi Arabian crude is said to cost around $1 a barrel.
Or what has to happen before they feel like they can connect the dots publicly? The press, even if they "get it" cannot get too far ahead of the public without getting pushed aside as "gone wacko." Viewers (and more importantly ad dollars) than go somewhere else... somewhere telling people what they expect to hear and not what is necessarily so. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 9:17 am Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
There was some guy on CNBC yesterday saying that the tar sands were still economic at either $45 or $35/bbl. I forget which one but it shocked me and made me realize these are the people who are creating the problems.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 10:32 am Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
because the tar sands are so energy intensive, the price went up 50% as the cost of oil went up.
KSA oil at $1 and Canadian tar sands at $90.
Hmm it would be really interesting to see what the "average cost per barrel of crude oil production" is on a running graph worldwide. _________________ "The future power is manpower"
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
joel,
So...some people are just making up numbers. So what? Some of us have made a good living in the past doing just that. Of course, now that oil prices are up I don't have to do that any more.
Soory...just a little inside joke for joel about geologists and fund managers.
Joined: Feb 23, 2005 Posts: 511 Location: Winnipeg
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:06 am Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
Cashmere wrote:
Wow. Now the MSM has connected the dots on supply.
How long til they figure out the ramifications long term?
When it becomes unavoidably obvious and even the majority of the otherwise unaware people become enmeshed in the fallout they will start pointing out the ramifications.
I'm guessing after another oil shock where it sends oil over $200/barrel even with the US mired in a deep recession. Then the question will be, how can prices be increasing in the US when demand is decreasing? The answer to that will probably be a Eureka moment. Right now the economy is sliding down and oil prices have slid a bit too, so the right question isnt being asked.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
For me zoid the question is: when will OPEC offset demand destruction by lowering output to raise prices while developing the internal self control to not compete with each other for market share? That's the day the world will enter into very new reality.
The answer: I don't make predictions. Maybe 2 years...maybe 30 years. But I do think we likely hit that new reality someday.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:47 am Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
ROCKMAN wrote:
For me zoid the question is: when will OPEC offset demand destruction by lowering output to raise prices while developing the internal self control to not compete with each other for market share? That's the day the world will enter into very new reality.
The answer: I don't make predictions. Maybe 2 years...maybe 30 years. But I do think we likely hit that new reality someday.
And what do you see as THE question?
well actually OPEC just recently removed quotas. what i lovingly refer to as "pumpin' all out".
The news today was that there is oversupply by Iran and Angola. Two OPEC countries which were probably quite happy about having their quotas lifted.
THE Question imo is when the next price shock will be. _________________ "The future power is manpower"
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3625 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:55 am Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
Oh, OPEC didn't publicly announce they were giving up on quotas, did they? There were some juicy remarks from anonymous ministers, but ostensibly they'll still attempt to hew to them.
Interestingly, after a long time, the issue of abiding by the OPEC output quotas is also back under hammer. The group's President Chakib Khelil while on a visit to Iran last week, emphasized that the OPEC members should keep oil output within the agreed targets. The issue of quota is also back on the table and with a vengeance this time, it seems.
Underlining the rapidly changing market dynamics, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has also cut its forecast for 2008 demand of oil from OPEC by 100,000 b/d despite raising the forecast for non-OPEC supply. Production is assuming to be an issue for now at least.
The price level was always a bone of contention, unlike those command economy socialists in, uh, Texas, that they modeled themselves after. Was making that joke before I started reading TOD, too. Kinda obvious. Free market, you say?
Anyway, nobody in OPEC wants to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. Even more so with production costs headed up, and OECD looking ever more serious about pursuing oil-free alternatives. And as non-OPEC declines more and more thoroughly they'll have even more of an incentive to keep prices within a tight window. That might lend credence to the notion (espoused here by threadbear) that KSA are attempting to actively game the futures market. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:28 pm Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
Such a crap shoot, eh Dude. There has to be a few OPEC members (seeing their clearly declining capabilities) ready to cut production to maximize prices. You know Hugo would like nothing better than to give himself a little breathing room and poke the US in the eye at the same time. We may not be too close to that tipping point but my gut tells me it may not be that many years out.
Hey...you wanna put a skids on alt development in the US? Cut oil imports to the point our society can just barely produce the necessities. You gotta admit it: it would be one world class game of "Chicken".
Joined: Feb 23, 2005 Posts: 511 Location: Winnipeg
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:33 pm Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
ROCKMAN wrote:
And what do you see as THE question?
THE question for the world is when does the US fail as a nation state, analogous to the USSR. There are so many stressors acting upon them a single catalyzing event could trigger the built up economic, social, and structural problems in a cascading failure. Since the catalyzing events are inherently unpredictable(black swams) its impossible to predict a timeline, so its ironically pointless to ask when. All one can do is measure the tremors and make case by case analysis to gauge whether events like bank failures, or military withdrawals, or riots presage a deeper disturbance. The ramifications of another oil shock could trigger many catalytic events over the next presidential term, which could easily lead to the first dramatic step down. (The failure will take place over some time and occur in phases I believe)
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:01 pm Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
Got it zoid. Your's is really THE BIG QUESTION. Mine was just one of the smaller Big Questions that would lead to your Bigger Question. And I do see the analogy to the USSR. We encouraged them to spend themselves into disaster just as we've encouraged our populace to do the same. The USSR built to many tanks and planes and we built too many sub-prime financed homes and big SUV's.
A rather silly comparision but, unfortunately, seems to work uncomfortably well.
Posted: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:57 pm Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
This post seems to be going of topic, BUT it is still good reading.
Back to tar sands, I do not know much about them, but all the info I read (here and internet) is that it is still costs more energy involved than to get energy out (bbl oil). To me , if the media ever brought this up, people would freak out. So many people believe that tar sands are our nations oil savior (are they?)
Joined: Sep 17, 2005 Posts: 177 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:57 pm Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
doodlebug2 wrote:
Back to tar sands, I do not know much about them, but all the info I read (here and internet) is that it is still costs more energy involved than to get energy out (bbl oil). To me , if the media ever brought this up, people would freak out. So many people believe that tar sands are our nations oil savior (are they?)
You are correct. It's called EROEI, energy returned on energy invested. I don't know the exact EROEI of tar sands but i do know you'll end up with a lot less energy extracting oil from tar sands than you do extracting oil from a 'regular' oil field. And most likely there are times when it actually will cost you more energy than you get out of it. People go crazy when they hear how much energy is in those canadian tar sands "more than Saudi Arabia has". The fact of matter is energy in the ground/energy in tar sands is useless. We need it in the form of light sweet crude oil. That transformation will cost us too much for Canada to constitute as having more oil than Saudi Arabia.
And no, tar sands are not our savior. Apart from what i stated above, more oil won't solve the oil problem. _________________ The man who moves a mountain begins by carrying away small stones.
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:22 pm Post subject: Re: MSM - Oil Won't Go Below 100 - High Prices Here to Stay
Yes high prices are here and might hang around for a while but oil looks as if it might dip below $100 a barrel very soon unless opec cuts production,,
how low can it go before it levels out,, I hope $90 a barrel is a least the bottom,, my business needs a gas break for a while,, last months gas bill was $2800.00...
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Was making that joke before I started reading TOD, too. Kinda obvious. Free market, you say?
