We are entering the stage where ideology and education about sustainability and living within carrying capacity will be augmented by the reality of identifiable consequences of our overshoot. External consequences like the peaking and decline of below ground energy and commodity resources, above ground environmental degradation of our climate, soils, fisheries and climate will have a profound effect on our culture.
2009 is the year when we start to feel it.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:02 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 wrote:
we will continue to move into fall and harvest season. There ought to be a lot of diesel demand this year, what with all of the extra grain production that is anticipated.
Nice analysis and good point. This year US farmers will have to compete for diesel supplies with India and Saudi Arabia - who are undergoing shortages at this time: ( http://www.peakoil.com/post748987.html#748987 )
As I mentioned further above, world gasoline supplies are being diverted from the US due to increased demand from Mexico and even Canada - due to refinery problems:
Quote:
Pemex Shut Madero Cat Cracker Sat For Planned Work - Source
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
August 18, 2008 12:38 p.m.
MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Petroleos Mexicanos shut a key gasoline unit at its 160,000-barrel-a-day Madero refinery on Saturday for around a month of planned work, a person involved in the maintenance program told Dow Jones Newswires.
Madero's catalytic cracker No. 1 will be shut until late September. The refinery has two gasoline-making catalytic crackers, and the refinery normally produces around 67,000 barrels a day of gasoline.
Pemex originally planned to start the maintenance work in late July but ran into delays getting the project started.
Pemex has a network of six refineries but is unable to produce enough gasoline to supply the domestic market and normally has to increase imports during periods of planned maintenance.
Gasoline is subsidized in Mexico, and demand has remained strong despite the global rise in crude and gasoline prices in recent years that has eroded demand in other countries such as the U.S.
Mexican officials have said they hope international prices for gasoline continue falling from record levels to reduce the amount the government spends on fuel subsidies, which is expected to reach $20 billion this year.
Pemex says it needs around five new refineries to phase out fuel imports.
WSJ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:50 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Not sure how this is going to affect things, but here in Florida we have drained the pumps of gas because of the approaching storm. I had to fill up with 93 octane because it was the only thing left! I know were just one state, but suppliers are scrambling to get enough gas to everyone topping off their tanks. Its astounding that when everyone tops of their tanks simultaneously it breaks the supply system!
Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 6:29 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Troyboy1208 said:
Quote:
Not sure how this is going to affect things, but here in Florida we have drained the pumps of gas because of the approaching storm. I had to fill up with 93 octane because it was the only thing left! I know were just one state, but suppliers are scrambling to get enough gas to everyone topping off their tanks. Its astounding that when everyone tops of their tanks simultaneously it breaks the supply system!
We discussed this quite a bit last year when shortages were starting to appear in the Mid West. Someone, DP, pup55 or me calculated that if everyone added just 1/8 more to their tank, it would drain the nations supply instantly.
The first signs of a shortage, and there is going to be a shortage!
Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 8:33 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
suppliers are scrambling to get enough gas to everyone topping off their tanks.
This is one of those times that you really appreciate the modern miracle that is the petroleum distribution system. The system as it now stands delivers 9.6 million barrels per day of flammable, perishable hydrocarbon fuel, literally to within a mile or two of 80% of the US population, with near-perfect reliability.
The closest thing to a guinea pig for this situation would have been the Rita evacuation in Houston in 2005, but that case, the demand was so affected by Katrina, a couple of weeks before in NOLA that the overall demand for the entire month of September and most of October of 2005 was way down compared to either 2004 or 2006.
Also, you have to remember that if people are evacuating, they are not commuting. Maybe it eventually balances out.
Yes, there are about 180 million vehicles in the country. 2 gallons per vehicle, that's 8.7 million barrels (at 42 gallons per barrel) of unleaded. Right now, we are at about 198 million in inventory, so that 8.7 would certainly test the MOL in a heartbeat.
Or to put it another way, the difference between a half a tank of gas, and a full tank is 34 million barrels, so that would for sure tilt the system if everybody did it at once.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2716 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:36 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
As I said last summer about this same topic, all its going to take is one mainstream story about a large urban area experiencing some sort of shortage for a general hoarding binge to take shape.
It wont take long and it will feed off of itself. A little here, a little there and all of a sudden you cant get gas at all. It happened here in Georgia within 48 hours of Katrina. Price spiked about 2-3 dollars overnight and within the next day most local stations were out of product. Just because local Atlanta news began reporting about shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline system.
J6P became a genius overnight!
We live with a very thin veneer covering systems like this. They are complicated and tenuous. It wont take much to destabilize if and when we get down to MOL.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:49 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
U.S. crude-oil inventories probably increased last week as shipments arrive following delays caused by Tropical Storm Edouard, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed.
Inventories of crude oil probably rose 1 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 15 from 296.5 million, according to the median of responses by seven analysts before an Energy Department report this week. Five forecast an increase and two said there was a decline.
August 19, 2008 07:17 EDT
Bloomberg _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:39 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
While this won't affect the numbers due out tommorow, a Candian refinery is said to be making heavy purchases of gasoline to make up for a refinery outage. This gasoline may have otherwise went to the Gulf or East coasts of the US. So I wouldn't be expecting a strong US gasoline import number anytime soon.
Quote:
08/19/08 12:44 pm (EST)
It was initially unclear why crude oil shot up $2.37 to $115.24. Sources suggested the surge came on rumours about problems at a refinery operated by Canada's Irving Oil. Irving operates Canada's largest oil refinery in Saint John, NB and may have bought as much as 1 million barrels of gasoline on the open market over the past two days.
Hmmm.. I wonder where oil traders got the idea that gasoline inventories would be down big this week???
Quote:
Forecasts of a continued decrease in gasoline inventories contributed to the turnaround by the price of oil, with analysts predicting that the Energy Information Administration's weekly oil inventory report will show a decrease in gasoline stockpiles of about 3 million barrels.
Trading Markets _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:02 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
August 19, 2008 21:48 EDT
U.S. supplies of gasoline probably fell 3 million barrels last week from 202.8 million barrels the previous week, according to the median of 13 responses in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. The Energy Department is scheduled to release the report at 10:35 a.m. in Washington.
Inventories of crude oil probably rose 1.05 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 15, the survey showed. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, probably gained 1 million barrels.
Bloomberg _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:46 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Investors are waiting for a report by the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration on U.S. oil stocks for the week ended Aug. 15 later in the day. The petroleum supply report was expected to show that gasoline inventories fell by 3 million barrels, according to the average of analysts' estimates in a survey by energy information provider Platts.
"People are going to be looking at the gas numbers," said Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director for brokerage Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore.
The Platts survey also showed that analysts projected oil stocks rose 1.7 million barrels and distillates went up 1.2 million barrels during last week.
U.S. supplies of gasoline probably fell 3 million barrels last week from 202.8 million barrels the previous week, according to the median of 13 responses in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.
Quote:
Tomorrow's report is almost sure-fire to be bullish," said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. "Refineries are nowhere near producing enough fuel to meet our needs.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 5076 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:41 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending August 15, 2008
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.8 million barrels per day during the
week ending August 15, relatively unchanged from the previous week's average.
Refineries operated at 85.7 percent of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production rose last week, averaging about 9.1 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.4 million barrels
per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 11.0 million barrels per day last week,
up 1.3 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged over 10.2 million barrels per day, 93 thousand
barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 794 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 73
thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 9.4 million barrels from the previous week. At
305.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the middle of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased
by 6.2 million barrels last week, and are below the lower boundary of the
average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending
components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
increased by 0.5 million barrels, and are in the upper half of the average range
for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.6 million
barrels last week but remain below the lower limit of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories increased by 8.2 million barrels last week,
and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 20.2 million
barrels per day, down by 3.0 percent compared to the similar period last year.
Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged about 9.5 million
barrels per day, down by 1.6 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged 4.2 million barrels per day over the last four weeks,
up by 3.3 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 6.2 percent
lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.
Nothing cheers a fellow up on Wednesday like whipping up on the analysts.
Anyhow, the frequent viewers of PO.com know exactly what happened this week, all of that crude oil that was sitting out in the gulf when Edouard hit ended up being counted in inventory, and there was a giant inflow and inventory buildup.
Equally significant was the story we had been following, which was the fact that people just can't get excited about starting their refineries back up, and even more significantly, have stopped importing the usual amount of unleaded. The refinery utilization did not increase from the storm-hampered level, and also, we imported practically no distillates as a nation last week, which is really unusual.
All of this combined to give a smaller than expected increase in distillates, and a big decline in unleaded, to go along with our giant wave of crude oil.
How the market will react to this will be anyone's guess, but at some point, the screwed up situation with refinery margins will be corrected again: either the unleaded price will go up, or the crude oil price will go down,or some combination of both, to give us a balance that makes it worth it for the refiners to show up to work in the morning, rather than go out and play golf or hit the beach, which is what they would like to do at this point.
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:58 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Very odd looking report. Build in crude and drop in gasoline much bigger than predicted.
Is this one of those "calibrated" reports or something? _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3708 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:04 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Looks like the family's on an outing, needle's on 'E' and Dad refuses to ask for directions to the nearest station! _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:21 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Imports 5.558
Almost no imports! DP is right! US gasoline sources have dried up, and there is no way that US refineries can produce enough gasoline to keep the wheels turning.
We are now less than 4 mb from the shortages we saw popping up in the Mid West last year. Unless there is a radical change in the next couple of week in imports, the US can expect to be sitting in Chinese style gas lines next month or so!
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