2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season

no_name · Tar Sands Joined: May 08, 2006 Posts: 44

Cuban radar: link

Just my observation but it seems fay is going to be east of the current NHC forecast points.

GoghGoner · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 10, 2008 Posts: 582

wisconsin_cur

This thing could yet turn early and head back into the gulf? If it kept on the due West course it could then hit a strike as it goes through the GOM.

This is better than the Olympics!
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GoghGoner · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 10, 2008 Posts: 582

Cloud9 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jul 26, 2006 Posts: 1248

Weather service has dropped the tornado warning form my county here in central florida. We are getting a considerable amount of rain and some moderate wind. Unless Fay pulls something out of a hat, there thus far has not been much to her.

f2tornado · Tar Sands Joined: Jun 21, 2008 Posts: 51

This pesky storm is defying most forecaster rules of thumb. The storm hit land overnight yet the central pressure has continued to decrease this morning. The center was somewhat disorganized last night yet it now has an eye feature on radar that is even trying to pop out on the visible satellite. The most reliable forecast model guidance has this thing exiting the east coast of FL tonight and then having about a day to gain some momentum as it does it loop-de-loop and hits FL once again. JAX residents should be very concerned. Put 10-20 inches of rain into the river and seal off the outlet with moderate surge and watch hell break loose. The area has not had a solid hit in 40 years so quite a few weaker old growth trees are ready to tumble onto powerlines. While the probability for reemergence into the Gulf is not zero the scenario is becoming less likely. Fay would have to jog well south of model and TPC forecast track to get the job done. Further, the northern Gulf is not as conducive for strengthening.

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1635

Wow, gohgoner, that looks like about the most diverse, widely spread out set of predicted paths I've ever seen. Does any one else recall as set of predictions this varied? Especially after a storm has his mainland? From the north Atlantic to the middle of the Gulf of Mexico! Isn't a lot of that Gulf water pretty superheated still?

f2tornado · Tar Sands Joined: Jun 21, 2008 Posts: 51

I am a meteorologist and did not stay at a Holliday Inn Express last night. This is simply extraordinary. The eye is now half over Lake Okeechobee. Reported wind gusts close to 80 mph. Makes me wonder how rapid this would intensify if not on land.

Completely counterintuitive: Storm hits land, strengthens, develops eye, tears apart whatever is west of the lake...

Shannymara

Remember Erin re-organizing over Oklahoma? I was in OKC when that happened.

Maybe land-canes are a new trend.
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Rohese · Coal Joined: Jul 30, 2008 Posts: 16 Location: Oklahoma

I remember Erin in OK - I got up that AM and checked the weather on the NWS-Norman page and it said "A rare and extraordinary event is unfolding this morning..." Erin had spiraling rainbands and even something that looked like an "eye" on the radar. And this in the middle of Oklahoma!

It will be interesting to see where Fay goes from here. She seems to be toying with us.

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1635

Thanks for that term, Shanny. Is it your of your own coinage?

Land-canes may become the word of the decade or even century. In Minnesota last year we had rainfalls of 17 inches in a few hours, amount only otherwise seen in hurricanes. We have also had increasingly frequent straight-line wind events with winds gaining hurricane-force winds.

We have always had twisters, but these are new or newly severe and frequent occurrences that used to only be associated with coastal hurricanes.

Cloud9 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jul 26, 2006 Posts: 1248

A little after 6:00 in Sebring. Still plenty of rain and some pretty strong gusts. Just lost a big limb out of the pine in the front yard. Power is out in Avon Park to the north of us. We still have electricity.

All in all a pretty relaxing day.

Troyboy1208

Good to hear your ok cloud 9. I am north of Orlando in DeLand and must say it has been very quiet. We had alot more rain yesterday than today. I even took a bike ride this afternoon. Light winds and cloudy skies. I think I am going to watch "a perfect storm" tonight Smile

As a teacher our district canceled school again tomorrow. Fay is expected to move off the space coast...intensify...and hit somewhere around Jacksonville as a Cat 1. Simply amazing. The storm looks better than ever.